Part 3 of Carl’s theory, as I now envision it, will be based on the claim that precipitable water’s (PW’s) greenhouse effect is a critically important factor behind any large-scale acceleration of temperature increases on Earth’s surface. Assuming the acceleration is of a generally conventional type, and not from some truly extraordinary event like an asteroid strike or a flood-basalt type of volcanic eruption, this effect may rank near the top of all accelerating factors. My claim only comes to a conclusion that the probability of such a realization is large enough to justify a recommendation that scientists should make an effort to investigate these claims and potentially incorporate the results into their models, just as they already do with cloud albedo studies.
Cloud albedo is of immense interest because its overall effect in blocking incoming solar radiation is so very large, probably 20% or more, and because it is variable in so many different ways, some of which are potentially quite large and also quite sensitive to changing circumstances. PW, which is composed mainly of water vapor and the tiny droplets clouds are made of, incorporates well over 50% of all the greenhouse trapping powers that inhibit outgoing radiation. The reason scientists do not take it more seriously is because they don’t think of PW powers either holistically or in terms of high variability. Instead, the effect of water vapor alone is designated as nothing more than a feedback of CO2 variability, locked into an unchanging relationship. When CO2 changes, water vapor changes with it—and supposedly for no further reason significant enough to be worth mentioning. I am not sure of how the greenhouse power of cloud bodies ends up in the accounting because it is seldom referred to in an explicit way, or as having a type of power that is independently variable.
Part 1 of Carl’s theory claims that the greenhouse powers of water vapor and cloud bodies can be combined holistically into a single power, which can be measured in a meaningful and uniform way (10C per double), with only a small margin of error, with reference to specific weights of columns of PW, regardless of how those weights are divided proportionately between vapor and droplets (with other fractions generally considered irrelevant) and regardless of how the weight components of a column are vertically distributed. These claims are not recognized in any science.
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Part 3 of the theory establishes a firm link between the activity described in part 2 and the activity of any other planetary system or subsystem that either has an influence on or is influenced by surface temperatures in the mid-to-upper latitudes of each hemisphere. PW in the upper atmosphere is highly sensitive to the influence of the this link and responds in the near term with a positive feedback effect which may have considerable strength, making it a vitally important and yet-unrecognized contributor to temperature acceleration.
Carl