Climate Letter #1252

Posted on September 7, 2018 by Carl Campbell

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How future permafrost emissions have been underestimated.  This post was written for Carbon Brief by the four scientists who published an important study last month about dynamic thawing from what are called thermokarst lakes in Alaska.  Here they discuss their findings in everyday language, including a disturbing message about future greenhouse gas emissions that are beyond human control and have not previously been recognized by climate scientists.  “Our findings show that the lack of understanding of Arctic lake dynamics and the neglect of implementing these aspects into global climate models can result in strongly underestimating greenhouse gas emissions from degrading permafrost landscapes…..Formation and expansion of thermokarst lakes will accelerate the release of permafrost carbon. This means that the permafrost-carbon feedback will be globally important within several decades from now as opposed to centuries.”
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Wisconsin’s catastrophic flooding is a glimpse into the future for the Midwest.  This post features comments from scientists at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, who were themselves flooded out.  “The scale of what is happening is absolutely unbelievable to witness.”  They had previously constructed models projecting what was supposed to be a worst-case scenario for later in this century.  Those results were matched in actuality by current events.  The main source of all the water is the Gulf of Mexico, which has been regularly setting records for heat content.
–This link to a story from the Washington Post about the Gulf of Mexico is over a year old, but still worth a look:
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An extremely rare event that happened in Alaska three years ago has been analyzed.  The fourth largest tsunami of the past century was caused by climate change, and events like it could happen again.
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Summer nights in the US this year were the hottest on record.  There is a simple explanation for why nighttime temperatures are warming more rapidly than those of daytime.  Incoming radiation during the day is divided about 50/50 between solar and greenhouse gas, while night is all greenhouse.  The incoming total from the sun is not growing at all, but that’s not so for the greenhouse effect, which keeps growing and working the same way at night as during the day.  That means the overall rate of growth will be greater at night, though from a lower base.
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How climate change affects the activity of bird and bee pollinators (Yale Climate Connections).  “You’re already stressing out a lot of these organisms and it’s hard to imagine what they’d do when you repeatedly stress them out.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1251

Posted on September 6, 2018 by Carl Campbell
David Roberts wonders why we (humanity) are not taking advantage of the huge economic savings associated with a much more aggressive energy transition.  Roberts is always interesting, but something important is missing from his answer.  Sure, weak leadership is a problem, but what motivates leadership?  Big corporations, or big individuals for that matter, who are making gobs of money in the current situation, and don’t care about anything else, are very good at motivating leaders, both in democracies and authoritarian states.  In democracies there are too many voters who place their bets on whoever makes the best sales pitch on today’s biggest pocketbook issues, or some other immediate concern that has popped up.  Bad weather events are becoming such a concern, but maybe not yet quite enough to induce real pressure.

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A computer model commissioned by the Club of Rome in 1973 predicted that civilization was likely to collapse by 2040 due to the advance of unsustainable practices.  According to a recent re-evaluation of its message, “The bad news for us is that the model seems to be spot-on so far.”  The model was based on the philosophy that there are limits to growth on a finite planet, and those limits were subject to being identified in advance.
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A separate study, just published, used a similar philosophy while analyzing interactions between the world’s developed and underdeveloped economies.  “High-income countries often rely more on non-extractive industries, such as manufacturing and services, but also consume more per capita and import more raw materials…..In contrast, in low-income countries, populations depend more on extractive industries such as agriculture, logging and mining, but have lower per capita consumption rates and higher population growth.”  In the underdeveloped countries the combination of climate change and rapid growth leads to ecological destruction and a lower standard of living.  https://phys.org/news/2018-09-sustainable-co-exist-current-economic-growth.html
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A new report on US carbon emissions from the EIA.  Total energy-related emissions fell slightly in 2017 and are down 12% since 2005.  All of the recent improvement has been caused by the reduced burning of coal for electric power generation.  Oil and gas together are about unchanged for this century.
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An update on the huge Larsen C ice shelf that broke away in July 2017.  After being slowed by grounding for about a year it is now free to roam about in the waters of the great circumpolar current beyond Antarctica.
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A new study of climate conditions during the PETM, an extremely warm event 56 million years ago.  It came to the disturbing conclusion that the actual consequences of the warmup may have been much greater than those predicted by using the standard setup of current climate models.  The research methods relied on bits of physical evidence found in deep strata.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1250

Posted on September 5, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Human extinction is a real possibility, without any consideration for climate change.  This story is more shocking than anything you have read before in these letters (which for me is an odd sort of relief).  It’s about the problem of declining fertility, called “Sperm Count Zero,” published by GQ magazine.  Once again, it’s the Industrial Revolution that ultimately gets blamed, this time with a primary focus on the chemical industry.  The evidence presented is not flimsy, and the potential solutions, as proposed, unconvincing.

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From Anthropocene magazine, a review of two recent studies about the effect of climate change on Earth’s ecosystems.  One, which was widely reported last week, focused on widespread vegetation makeover.  The other, less noticed, did some original research on the impact of a major heat wave on marine and terrestrial ecosystems in specific parts of Western Australia.  The results led to some disturbing conclusions:  “Researchers are increasingly realizing that the negative effects of climate change come not just from changes in average temperature but from extreme events. Heat waves are increasing in frequency and intensity, and are expected to do so more as climate change proceeds….The bigger picture, it seems, is that this is the way the biosphere as we know it ends: not with a bang nor a whimper but knocked back and back, one climate disaster at a time.”
–Note:  The heat wave study has open access, with a link at the end of the report.  One can read just the Introduction alone to learn that the implications of the study are really quite broad as heat waves everywhere are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity.
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Some personal comment:  I keep thinking about the implications of a specific temperature chart that was introduced and discussed in a recent letter.  Here it is again:
This chart, from James Hansen’s website, employs a baseline that is about equal to the preindustrial average, or maybe higher by about one-tenth, and updating ended with 2016 (2017 would have dropped a bit).  It shows that average temperatures on Earth’s land areas are rising very rapidly, and now easily exceed the 1.5C target set by the Paris Agreement.  Oceans lag far behind, now about 0.8C, and if the two were combined on this image we would see a global average reading of 1.1C, a more familiar number.  The weighting of ocean to land reflected in the combination, based on area totals, is 70/30.
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I have calculated that if the trends of the past forty years continue at the same rate for another 20-25 years we would then see the combined global anomaly at 1.5C, land at 2.3 and oceans 1.1.  The heat that has been “missing” at the ocean’s surface and close-by lower atmosphere would presumably be found to have been accumulating for years at varying depths below the surface, warming up the home of marine ecosystems.  Nothing comparable can occur in the rigid and heat-resistant rocks and soils that underlie the surface of land.  One must wonder if all the studies that project the effects of future climate change are taking this highly unbalanced temperature distribution into account?  Or, can “fast” sensitivity (temperature increase due to a doubling of CO2, before full equilibrium is reached) be meaningfully described by just one number in situations where land and ocean results are so widely divergent?  Today’s extraordinarily rapid CO2 increase seems to be just such a situation.  How long will it actually last, before sea surfaces start to catch up?
One final thought—the rise in CO2 since 1750 has passed the half-way point (396 ppm) on a logarithmic basis, and we know that temperatures on land have risen by an average of 1.6 to 1.7C.  That suggests a fast-response sensitivity outcome greater than 3.0C for a doubling, even before an increase in reflective aerosols is taken into consideration.  Greenhouse gas, including lots of methane, is the simplest and maybe the only way to account for that much heating input.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1249

Posted on September 4, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Script of an interview with Michael Mann about the serious threat of climate change.  The views of this well-known scientist are always timely, and generally hopeful about what can be accomplished.  His comments about the recent “Hothouse Earth” study are a bit begrudging, while posing quite a challenge for negative emissions:  “It’s real, the threat is real. We have to think about these worst-case scenarios, and if this is true…then it means that not only do we have to stop emitting carbon into the atmosphere, we are going to need to find ways to draw it back down, to bring it back out of the atmosphere over a longer time frame, over many decades, if we want to mitigate the higher-end risk here.”

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Here is another point of view, this from an 86-year old social scientist who comes across as an ultimate realist.  His knowledge of climate science is surely not as deep as Mann’s but he has a perhaps more powerful awareness of human behavior and its many weaknesses.  “Can civilisation prolong its life until the end of this century? “It depends on what we are prepared to do.” He fears it will be a long time before we take proportionate action to stop climatic calamity. “Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you imagine the global airline industry being dismantled when hundreds of new runways are being built right now all over the world? It’s almost as if we’re deliberately attempting to defy nature. We’re doing the reverse of what we should be doing, with everybody’s silent acquiescence, and nobody’s batting an eyelid.”
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Can we consume less without wrecking the economy (Deutsch Welle)?  The authors present some interesting viewpoints about why the excesses of the current system need to be corrected via a sort of smooth transition that may or may not be possible.  What it finally comes down to is an ultimate decision:  “Perhaps the question is less whether the economy can survive the death of consumerism, but whether the economic system we have now is one we’re willing to sacrifice the planet for.”
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From Inside Climate News, an analysis of Brett Kavanaugh’s past decisions regarding the powers of government to enact climate regulations.  “In his dozen years on the federal appeals court that hears the most disputes over government regulatory power, Judge Brett Kavanaugh has compiled an extensive record of skepticism toward the government’s powers to act on climate change.”  His appointment would lock in a majority of justices making it unlikely that the EPA could easily regain the regulatory powers that have been stripped away by the Trump administration in favor of the interests of regulated parties.
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There is an amazing fact about American registered voters who strongly favor a healthy environment.  Up to 15 million of them have a poor voting record and are thus typically overlooked by candidates.  Joe Romm offers an introduction to a non-partisan organization that wants that to change.  Their program makes good sense and should have considerable appeal.  (It needs help.)
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A new set of climate talks has begun in Bangkok.  Delegates will attempt to draft rules that tighten up national obligations relative to achievement of the targets set by the Paris Agreement.  This would fulfill a need in preparation for the coming major conference to be held in Poland in December.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1248

Posted on August 31, 2018 by Carl Campbell
An important new study has found that insect pests reduce crop yields at a large increasing rate when temperatures rise (Carbon Brief).  Basically it is because such pests become more active in their eating habits and reproduction rates as their bodies warm.  The losses of yield are projected for wheat, rice and maize, each of which have been shown by previous studies to also lose significant nutritional value when temperatures rise.  A reviewer noted that, “If crops become less nutritious, insects will have to consume more plant matter to get the nutrients they need……potentially raising yield losses further.”  The study did not attempt to provide information about how growth rates of the plants themselves might be affected by higher CO2 levels or other growth factors.

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Scientists are very worried about deforestation activity causing the loss of a vital carbon sink.  That is an established fact that is not getting the attention it deserves.  The principal cause is illegal activity that is not being controlled by public pressure on irresponsible government entities.  This article published by The Nation magazine provides commentary from persons who are familiar with the actual events causing so much frustration.  Loss of the current carbon sink, which now absorbs a goodly percentage of our fossil fuel emissions, would inevitably lead to a deadly “hothouse Earth” situation much sooner than anyone thinks possible.
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About the idea of setting aside half the Earth to assure the preservation of biodiversity.  Mongabay gives it a good look, based on the latest views of several advocates who have been studying the real needs.  One main point, pretty obvious, is that quality of reserved territory is more important than quantity.  And then all different species need to be looked at individually.  One conclusion:  “Once we’ve adequately covered important areas for biodiversity, factoring in areas of importance for ecosystem services is likely to mean we actually need substantially more than half the earth conserved in some way, through a variety of mechanisms in addition to formal ‘protection’.”
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Here is another problem facing possible decisions described in the post above:  When climate changes vegetation in most regions also changes, and so do ecosystems as inhabitants go looking for a new home.  Researchers have made a sweeping survey of all prominent changes over the last 20,000 years, finding them useful for making future projections.  The current pattern is complicated by its extraordinary speed and by many disturbances unrelated to climate.
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A significant cost reduction that should make fuel cells much more viable has been proven.  The key discovery eliminates the need for expensive platinum in the production process.  Practical applications for this excellent source of renewable energy have never been that far off, and will now be closer than ever.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1247

Posted on August 30, 2018 by Carl Campbell
The effect of global drought on the annual carbon sink can now be measured directly by satellite.  The effect has been demonstrated to be quite powerful, roughly enough to explain the wide swings in the gains in atmospheric CO2 content from one year to the next, even when emissions due to human activity are little changed.  Major El Nino years like 2015 feature unusual levels of drought in some rain forest areas, causing vegetation growth to suffer greatly.  The study helps to evaluate short-term changes, which is useful for climate models, but makes no attempt to evaluate long term trends of drought conditions.

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Arctic sea ice is threatened by an unusual mass of warm water lying at depth in the ocean.  A new study reports that the heat content of this layer has doubled in the past 30 years, and gives reasons for why this is happening.  “That heat isn’t going to go away…..Eventually it’s going have to come up to the surface and it’s going to impact the ice…..a ticking time bomb.”  Currently, a thick layer of cool fresh water on top keeps this warm but salty layer from rising.
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A group of three scientists, writing for The Conversation, explains the way melting sea ice and changing ocean currents in the Barents Sea area north of Europe are causing dramatic climate changes over land.  As in the previous story, a layer of cool fresh water is involved, but in this case (a different location) it is being weakened by strong warm flows from the Atlantic.  The end result contributes to a rising frequency of extreme weather events in Europe and northern Asia.
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Like California, British Columbia is having its worst fire season on record.  The previous record was set just last year.  A total of 534 fires are still active.
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David Roberts, at Vox, has an impressive review of the current state of solar energy technology and where it is heading.  Silicon panels have gotten so cheap that current innovation is now more focused on lowering the cost of modules and inverters and improving their function, as well as everyday efficiency.  For example, maintenance is getting a remarkable boost from robots that perform a daily cleaning automatically, without water.  There is much more.  “Ten years ago, no one expected this. I wonder what we’ll fail to anticipate in the next 10 years.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1246

Posted on August 29, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Weather conditions associated with El Nino and La Nina events are becoming more powerful in certain regions.  In this post John Abraham reviews a new study that was able to sort things out enough to find intensified impacts on land in North America and Australia.  The post also provides a helpful review of the nature and history of these events and the need for serious preparations before they develop.

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–A separate review of the same study takes a closer look at how this intensification becomes involved in the development of extreme wildfire outbreaks in both continents.
–Extra comment:  Observe, both land and ocean surfaces, when warmed, lose some of that warmth through the process of evaporation of water.  Oceans never have to worry about running out of water, but not so with land.  When water runs out cooling depends entirely on radiation and conduction, both sources of sensible heat as opposed to the latent heat of evaporation.  That allows the air above some land to warm up faster than otherwise, certainly adding to the heat island effect in urban areas and probably accentuating the entire relationship between land and ocean surface warming which has lately tilted in a significant way toward land over the last forty years.  (See CL #1238 and 1239.)
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The city of Alexandria, Egypt, is featured in this article about the devastating impact of sea level rise on low-lying urban locations.  Flooding due to heavy rainfall is also increasing at an unprecedented rate.  According to government sources, hundreds of thousands of people in this city will most likely be forced to relocate within ten years.  From The Guardian, well-illustrated.
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Soybean farming is overwhelming Brazil’s vast savanna region (Reuters).  Unlike the more closely watched rainforests, protection is almost totally missing and the commercial rewards are highly attractive, largely propelled by demand from China.  Along with other kinds of damage there is considerable loss of carbon stored in the soil, having an adverse effect on climate change.
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Although relatively small, there are newly-formed processes in the Arctic that are helping to remove carbon from the atmosphere.  The evidence has been found in sharply increased alkalinity of the waters in two large rivers.  While the exact reason for the increase is uncertain, this story provides a good explanation of the “weathering effect” that has the power to greatly reduce CO2 from the atmosphere over geological timescales.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1245

Posted on August 28, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A new climate change assessment report for California has been released.  It warns of numerous “apocalyptic threats” if the forces causing the change are not aborted.  This post has a summary from The Guardian which covers the principal findings.  There are also some poignant comments from a native American tribe leader.

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–The Los Angeles Times has a much more detailed review, plus two more links at the end to the full report and other materials aimed at promoting a more serious response from the public.
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A new report has found that carbon losses from deforestation and land degradation in African woodlands has been far greater than estimated (Mongabay).  The same report also found that regrowth could occur at a surprisingly rapid rate when disturbances were absent, offering some grounds for hope if good management practices are pursued.  Researchers have learned that complete deforestation of an area makes recovery very difficult and must be avoided.
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Cities and towns that once depended on rivers now have big decisions to make.  As an impact of climate change, flooding caused by extreme rainfall has for many inland locations developed into a real problem much sooner than sea level rise on coastlands.  The answer is the same—build defences or migrate to higher ground.
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New clues help to explain the greatest extinction in Earth’s history.  Massive volcanic eruptions in Siberia radically changed the climate but that is not all.  They also released a family of gases that had the ability to destroy the ozone layer that protects life from damaging radiation.  (This is the same fate that we narrowly escaped in the last century by curbing emissions of the same kind of gases.)   “The scale of this extinction was so incredible that scientists have often wondered what made the Siberian Flood Basalts so much more deadly than other similar eruptions.”
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A dramatic resignation in France over the government’s lack of action on climate change.  Under Macron, France was the home of the Paris Agreement and thought to be a leader in making things happen.  This kind of embarrassment may cause some changes.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1244

Posted on August 27, 2018 by Carl Campbell
How the effects of malnutrition caused by the rise in CO2 levels are distributed.  Declines in key nutrients have already been established.  This new study shows which populations will be most affected because of the nature of their diets.  A colored map is included in this post that sorts the information by scaling.  While the study draws attention to a possible CO2 level of 550 ppm, the trends toward those goals are in effect today. “The growing body of literature on the impacts of rising CO2 concentrations on the nutritional quality of our food indicates the health consequences could be significant, particularly for poorer populations in Africa and Asia – although everyone could be affected.”

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A current CO2 update.  The increase for the past twelve months has been almost exactly 2 ppm, an amount that has been consistently in place all of this century except for the bulge in the 2015-16 El Nino event.  There is no sign of either a slowdown or acceleration at this moment.  At this rate 550 ppm would not show up for 70 years.  Also, the much talked-about double from the preindustrial level of 280 falls into view soon after, or right near the end of the century.  Be sure to check out the bottom chart at this link, due for a seasonal turnaround in just one month at about the 403 level.
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An article about climate warming feedbacks.  The author, who began studying this activity in the 1980s, wrote this in response to the recent major study on long-term feedbacks that has received so much attention.  His article has a number of links that are worth opening and reading, including one on the water vapor feedback that deserves some comment.  Andrew Dessler and colleagues established the strength of this feedback in 2008, as reported here by NASA.  Quoting Dessler, “We now think the water vapor feedback is extraordinarily strong, capable of doubling the warming due to carbon dioxide alone.”  The implication, which is not always recognized as well as it should be, is that the same effect applies to any source of warming, whatsoever, not just CO2 and other greenhouse gases.  That includes the impacts of any an all albedo changes.  And it works in a corresponding way for everything in the reverse direction.  Water vapor even reacts to its own warming effect, which I believe has been netted out in the doubling total that Dessler refers to.  Of course water vapor has its own timetable for moving into place, which is referred to by the concept of relative humidity, exhibiting a set of irregularities that seem to average out over time at about 60% of what is possible.
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The plug-in electric car revolution now looks irreversible.  That would be despite the outcome of the messy situation at Tesla due to the erratic behavior of one man.  Joe Romm lays out the full picture in terms that are more encouraging.  As one source points out, “At the current rate of growth, plug-in electric vehicles would be half the new car market in 2027.”  That growth rate has been not less than 42% for any one year since 2010.
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Australia has a new prime minister, again.  This one is an even stronger representative of fossil fuel interests than the one who is outgoing.  It’s all kind of confusing, but the result is generally similar to the situation that now exists in the US, with voters having the right to make changes if they wish.  “Australia is due to hold elections within the next nine months. The Labor opposition is leading in the polls.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1243

Posted on August 24, 2018 by Carl Campbell
The Weather Channel is publishing an editorial series about the human realities of climate change on its website, which is given a review in this post from FORTUNE.  It is a high quality piece of work, and everything published to date—since August 1—is available at the link highlighted under the title of “Exodus”.

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NASA has provided satellite imagery that shows the location of all the big fires across the world in a single picture.  (It’s best to read the story first, then click on the picture for a larger and better view.)
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Climate change is destabilizing the French Alps as glaciers melt (The Guardian).  Mountain climbers have to make considerable adjustments.  “You’ll still be able to climb in the future – you’ll just have to change the way you climb……If anyone doesn’t believe that climate change exists, they should come to Chamonix to see it for themselves.”
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Wind energy in the US is making great progress.  The country’s wind energy capacity has tripled since 2008, now contributing 6.3% of total energy supply, and the average wholesale price in new agreements is down to just two cents per kWh.  “The short story is wind is doing well in the markets, has been doing well, and looks like it will continue to do well.”  Offshore wind is gearing up for growth in areas close to major population centers that are not easy to serve with onshore structures.
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Wind and solar power are both likely to benefit from further improvements in battery technology that are still in the testing stage.  This post describes one of the more interesting prospects that has made a critical breakthrough.
Carl

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