Climate Letter #1262

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A new study has found direct evidence of significant ice loss from East Antarctica during three of the last four interglacial periods.  One of those periods was the Eemian, which was the most recent, about 125,000 years ago.  Other studies have found scattered evidence around the world that sea level rose six to nine meters at one point during the Eemian, when global average temperatures were not much higher than those of today.  Such an increase would require a significant contribution from the mammoth East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and that is exactly what the new study has been able to determine by analyzing sediments in the ocean floor adjacent to one of the three large basins where such melting would be most likely to occur.  The authors believe it would take about 2000 years to achieve that much melting.  (As others have pointed out, a lesser but still fairly large amount of sea level rise could originate from Greenland and West Antarctica over a much shorter time frame.)  The conclusion: “These periods could be analogues for future climates and it seems likely that ice loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet contributed to those higher sea levels…..With current global temperatures already one degree higher than during pre-industrial times, future ice loss seems inevitable if we fail to reduce carbon emissions.”

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–Here is a link to the study, not in full but with access to the Abstract and to a number of Figures which can be opened and looked at.  Fig. 3 has the most useful perspective on interglacial relationships.
–One more note:  This study does not talk about CO2 levels.  All of the records I’ve seen show CO2 topping out at around 300 ppm or less during all of the last eight interglacial periods, vs plus-400 today.  The required heat for this much melting would have to come from some other source, such as a different positioning of the orbital cycles that will return the same way in the distant future.
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An internal report has some good advice for the UN.  According to the authors of the task force, “The UN currently lacks a system-wide lead, coordination mechanism, or strategy on disaster displacement, including related to climate change…..NGO observers expressed frustration at a perceived unwillingness from developed countries to provide new money for this agenda.”  Moreover, they need to find a way to head off the anti-immigration political movements that are arising in a number of these same countries.
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There are big concerns about declining populations of beneficial insects, the absence of which can lead to ecological disasters.  Climate change has a small role in the decline but is not considered to be one of the major contributors.  Once again, an extraordinary range of misguided human activities seem to be responsible, and remedies on a correspondingly large scale seem to be needed in good time.  https://www.kqed.org/science/1931569/why-are-beneficial-bugs-disappearing

An argument in favor of 100% electrification as the surest way to fully decarbonize.  We now know that tremendous amounts of electric power can be cheaply produced by carbon-free energy sources.  The coming challenge will be to fully adapt electrical power to heating, transportation and all kinds of industrial processes as quickly as possible.
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An incredibly efficient (85%) photovoltaic solar cell has been created in a laboratory in Japan, but the materials are too expensive for commercialization.  “It is, however, yet another instance of the ingenuity and imagination at work in the world’s universities and laboratories,” as scientists seek answers to climate change.  Maybe there is a way around the cost problem, with other materials?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1261

Posted on September 20, 2018 by Carl Campbell
What the peak in fossil fuel demand looks like from an investment point of view.  This well-thought-out argument is interesting as a warning to investors and also serves as a realistic guideline for the trend of future emissions, which are not slated to peak until the mid-2020s.  (The CO2 level would still be likely to grow enough to pass 450 ppm by mid-century.)  Emerging markets are key to timing the actual swing.  The video talk is very good, short and to the point.

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A fundamental reason for why the demand for fossil fuels is so strong.  It’s all about prices, which the OECD has figured are 76.5% too low.  Their report says, “The pricing gap had narrowed, from 79.5 percent in 2015, but “carbon prices need to increase considerably more quickly than they have done in recent years in order to ensure a cost-effective low-carbon transition.”  Carbon taxes would be required to fill most of that gap.  (This same post from Reuters has several more of today’s climate stories worthy of a look.)
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Large-scale development of wind and solar farms could actually improve the climate in desert areas.  A new study explains how increases in rainfall become possible for places like the Sahel and even the Sahara.  Along with direct effects that are described, feedbacks that occur on the ground would promote still more rain.
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New understanding of a major basalt flooding event that occurred 16 million years ago.  This was a huge, long-lasting volcanic eruption around the Columbia River in Washington state, now confirmed as the source of the large CO2 increase that caused the anomalous global warmup in the mid-Miocene era known as the MMCO.  “The MMCO could be a parallel to our current climate, and further work investigating the timing and duration of that event will tell us more about how we can expect Earth to recover from anthropogenic climate change….. For instance, if the climate stayed warm for a million years after the volcanoes stopped erupting, as now looks possible, that could have significant implications for predicting how long the atmosphere will respond to human-caused global warming.”
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Turtles survived the major extinction event that killed off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.  Now they are one of the most-endangered groups of species suffering from the current pressures assaulting much of the animal kingdom.  Mongabay has produced a fine presentation of the history of these ancient creatures, their contribution to all kinds of ecosystems and the significance of events now observed.
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A quick overview of all the main factors that make California wildfires so destructive:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1260

Posted on September 19, 2018 by Carl Campbell
The most disgusting consequences of Hurricane Florence for the Carolinas (Inside Climate News).  This story is about what the flood waters have done to overcome inadequate controls on hog, chicken and turkey farms, coal ash deposits, sewage treatment facilities, superfund pollution sites and so on.  On top of all that, a number of drinking water systems were put out of service.

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Scientists worry that the role fungi play in regulating climate is being weakened.  (This fascinating educational piece was provided by WBUR radio in Boston.)  The critical part reveals the story of the enormous amount of carbon that is stored in soil’s fungal life and how these species are disrupted in several ways because of fossil fuel emission effects.  Significant CO2 losses are being studied and quantified. “Preliminary results from Templer’s experimental plot in a New Hampshire forest suggest that if scaled up for the entire New England region, the amount of carbon stored by fungi in forest soil would be reduced by 20 percent, further accelerating the climate change feedback loop and increasing the possibility of runaway global warming.”  (This is a phenomenon that could rival the importance of permafrost thawing and will need to be added to climate models as information grows.)
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Original research has discovered an entirely new process by which large quantities of CO2 are released as a feedback from thawing permafrost.  “The amount of carbon dioxide released from thawing permafrost might be greater than previously thought because of a process called mineral weathering, according to a new study by University of Alberta ecologists.”  It appears that this process varies from place to place.  When it occurs it can add to the CO2 released by the well-studied microbial breakdown of organic matter.  As in the previous story, the numbers still have to be worked out more fully.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL078748
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More good stuff from Jennifer Francis.  Yesterday I posted an interview which I hope you read because her explanations of atmospheric science are top quality and so easy to understand.  Later yesterday a video came in from Peter Sinclair’s site which again features Dr. Francis along with some excellent illustrated material and extra breadth respecting the Pacific side,  “How Climate and Ice Melt Intensify Hurricanes.”
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Writing for Vox, David Roberts provides evidence that electric utility customers are waking up to the advantages of renewable power sources and are starting to put pressure on companies to hurry up and make a 100-percent switch.  This is very good news and will have to find a place in political platforms fairly soon, especially serving as an opportunity for Democratic (or Independent) candidates to gain favor in the current situation.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1259

Posted on September 18, 2018 by Carl Campbell
New research can demonstrate why the tropics are widening.  The rate of widening has been increasing and the warming caused by climate change is clearly indicated as an important factor.  The expansion, projected at 170 miles in each hemisphere over the course of a century, creates new desert areas that will affect livelihoods in many densely populated areas.

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In a guest post for Carbon Brief, Jennifer Francis describes many of the factors that added to the destructiveness of Hurricane Florence.  Dr. Francis is a renowned expert with respect to analyzing the role of the jet stream in the way weather patterns develop, and how this has all been changing.  There are many complications involved, too many for me to summarize, but her conclusion is simple enough:  “In short, much of the extreme weather that we have endured in recent years may be boosted by the warming, melting Arctic.”
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How the expected growth in shipping will affect the Arctic Ocean as melting ice clears a path.  The most surprising result of a recent study is that various emissions of a polluting type from the ships will have a cooling effect, which all by itself might be desirable; however, the high risk of environmental disasters due to accidents is an offsetting factor and so is the likelihood that emissions will need to be regulated for other reasons.
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A major coal-burning utility in Michigan has decided to switch to renewables, primarily wind.  The individuals and communities that play host to the turbines are apparently pleased to go along for financial reasons and the favorable health impacts.
–Farmers in Massachusetts are likewise being motivated to add solar collectors to their fields:
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A new book tells the story of China’s new role in climate change mitigation.  No other country has anything near the influence that China has, because of its population size and industrial might.  As explained in this review, the nation has made dramatic progress in the installation of renewable energy but the overall picture is still full of contradictions.  “Yes, China has made significant progress on climate change and is eagerly embracing its new-found role as a global leader on the issue. But we should not be starry-eyed; a great deal more needs to be done…..economic growth is still the overriding objective and the main factor which legitimises the Communist Party’s hold on power.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1258

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Michael Mann writes for The Guardian about the growing threat from hurricanes.  He points out several reasons for why today’s hurricanes tend to be more destructive, on average, than those of the past.  The steady warming of ocean waters makes a key difference in almost every situation, and warm ocean waters in a particular region will always add something to the temperature of the air above, which can then hold more vapor.  I believe  Dr. Mann could have added more by talking about increases in evaporation rate and area of coverage, which is the ultimate source of all the water that is available to rain out.  That involves a combination of heat, wind speed and overall diameter of the storm as well as its pace of movement when it passes over land.  Incredible flooding may become a common effect of ordinary tropical storms as well as hurricanes, and thus become one of the most feared effects of climate change for our own generation, in our own time.

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–When moving across the ocean a hurricane should leave behind a trail of cool water due to all the heat that has been withdrawn by the unusual evaporation.  You can clearly spot such a trail for Florence, which has now drifted a bit to the north, in the Weather Map at this link.  If you click on SST Anomaly it shows up just as clearly, but in blue.  Also, if you drop down to the world map you can see a similar trail for Typhoon Manghut off the coast of northern Luzon in the Philippines, not quite so well preserved by this time.
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Some scientists are now talking about the prospect of Category 6 hurricanes, or worse.  According to Jeff Masters, “A ‘black swan’ hurricane – a storm so extreme and wholly unprecedented that no one could have expected it – hit the Lesser Antilles Islands in October 1780……Deservedly called The Great Hurricane of 1780, no Atlantic hurricane in history has matched its death toll of 22,000.  So intense were the winds of the Great Hurricane that it peeled the bark off of trees – something only EF5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 200mph have been known to do.”  He and others think there will be more of these coming.
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Hydrogen-powered passenger trains are now running in Germany, replacing diesel.  They are more expensive to produce but cheaper to run, and much more eco-friendly.  Other countries are expressing an interest.
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A new report calls for major cuts in meat and dairy production in the EU.  Rapidly growing demand for these products is unsustainable for a number of reasons, including high emission of greenhouse gases and nitrogen pollution.  Close to 80% of the planet’s agricultural land is now used for grazing and animal feed production.
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Something totally unexpected has happened in Russia.  I have always thought that the Russian government, because of the country’s (and oligarchs’) dependence on oil and gas revenues, was fully in accord with the Trump government with respect to the environment and climate change policies.  That has now been cast into doubt, because of the publication of a devastating 900-page report from a major ministry—equivalent to our EPA—about the past and future consequences of climate change.  It must have had the approval of Putin himself but there are no statements to that effect.  Depending on the followup, this could be quite meaningful for international climate action.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1257

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Carl Campbell

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A new report about climate geoengineering proposals is not encouraging.  The study was produced by ten European-based scientists who had taken a close look at all of the more prominent proposals.  The main conclusion:  “Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.”  The full study is available at this link:
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A hurricane much stronger than Florence will make landfall today in the Philippines (CNN)..  Super Typhoon Mangkhut is a category 5 storm with wind speeds up to 180 mph.  “We are bracing for the worst here…..There is a sense of fear that we might be facing a storm as bad as Haiyan or Haima.”  Super Typhoon Haima struck nearby parts of the same island just two years ago.
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Why cement-making emissions matter for climate change (Carbon Brief).  The industry is responsible for 8% of global CO2 emissions, with opportunities for making reductions in hand but not making much progress.  This well-researched story has realistic answers to many questions about where this large and growing, very basic industry is headed.
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There is a way to fully control a large part of the deforestation problem (Scientific American).  Indigenous peoples own the land that contains over 35% of the planet’s remaining intact forests.  They are proven to be good stewards of keeping these forests intact, but their rights are not being well-protected.  In addition to a proper reversal of that sad fact, their knowledge could be used to help bolster forest preservation and restoration plans everywhere.  “While protecting forests is essential to slowing climate change, only 24 percent of the world’s remaining forests are considered unharmed by human disturbance. What remains is being degraded and destroyed. Between 2000 and 2016, the world lost nearly 10 percent of its intact forests. Today, that loss is increasing.”
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A new study provides a major reason for why major deforestation by large-scale agricultural firms has not been curbed.  The corporations that buy products from them have not been keeping the voluntary pledges they made to clean up their supply chains.  Of 473 such pledges only 49 have reported making good progress.  “The corporate commitments have been difficult to implement, and some companies just don’t want to do much…..it can be a challenge for companies to find suppliers with verifiable sources of zero-deforestation commodities.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1256

Posted on September 13, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Highly original new research finds that soil porosity may be greatly reduced in this century because of climate change.  The exact mechanism that allows soil to soak up water has been carefully analyzed and found vulnerable to excessive precipitation.  “The consequences could be less infiltration of water into the ground, more surface runoff and erosion, and more flash flooding.”  This would clearly have an effect on food production in regions that are the most exposed.  (It seems there is always something new to learn about climate change that we don’t like.)

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–You can read the abstract at this link:  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0463-
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A new study finds that the future impacts of both El Nino and La Nina are likely to intensify.  That would happen even if there is no change in the frequency or intensity of the events themselves.  “For example, seasonal heat extremes in the southern half of the U.S. during a La Niña like the one that occurred in 2011 would be about 30 percent greater if they occurred at the end of the century.”  That would seriously affect crop yields, wildfires and a lot more.
https://phys.org/news/2018-09-future-impacts-el-nino-la.html
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How the human influence on today’s climate specifically applies to Hurricane Florence.  Four scientists have put together a quick study based on known principles of attribution science, by comparing what is actually being seen with what probably would have been seen without today’s level of warming.  The storm is 50 miles wider than it would have been, will throw off about 50% more rainfall and remain strong for a longer duration.  Click on the “attribution study” link in the second paragraph to see the report.
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A situation known as “compound flooding” is becoming more common and gaining serious attention (Scientific American).  The situation occurs when a hurricane like Florence brings a powerful storm surge onto a coastline and holds it there for several days just as it dumps dozens of inches of rain on top of it.  The water has no place to go apart from having the ability to cause flooding possibly hundreds of miles inland.
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Giant piles of toxic coal ash are an especially worrisome risk from Hurricane Florence (Inside Climate News).  These piles are part of the legacy of coal-fueled power plants, often poorly managed.  Some are 100 feet high and most are situated next to rivers.
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A little bit of cheerful news can’t hurt.  The American public may enable the nation to keep up its end of the Paris bargain in spite of the Trump administration.  “In fact, since the White House announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, more than 3,000 US cities, states, businesses and other groups have declared their commitment to the Paris agreement…..Together, these groups form the third-largest economy in the world, and they represent more than half the total US population.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1255

Posted on September 12, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Good chance of an El Nino event starting later this year.  It would be weaker than the big one that peaked in 2016, but could still be big enough to give temperatures an extra boost, especially in 2019.  As discussed in yesterday’s letter, continental (land) air temperatures peaked at an average of 1.8C in 2016, about one-half degree higher than the global average, also an historical peak, which is so low because it includes all of the air above the ocean surfaces.  Since the basic trend is rising it is possible that the record high could be broached next year in the wake of a moderately strong El Nino, but probably not otherwise.

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Climate change does not cause hurricanes but can make them all stronger (Quartz).  This article does an exceptionally good job of briefly explaining how hurricanes form and how their strength is so dependent on the temperature of the particular ocean water route that a storm is passing over.  That factor is making a big difference in the case of Florence.  Ocean temperatures in general are slowly creeping upward year after year.
–The Guardian has a story in much greater depth about the strengthening of hurricanes in the Atlantic, with numerous charts and historical references:
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The annual report about global undernourishment has been published by the UN.  After declining for over a decade the numbers have now risen for three consecutive years, with one person in nine going hungry.  “We had been making progress in curbing hunger and malnutrition, but those gains made are being eroded by climate variability and exposure to more complex, frequent and intense climate extremes.”  In much of the world malnutrition is probably the most dangerous of the projected impacts from climate change.
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An update on international action to reduce emissions and adapt to a warmer world (Deutsche-Welle).  One conference just ended and a bigger one is coming up in December.  While some progress on rules is being made, this story is mostly about the unfilled goals for funding adaptation/protection efforts in the poorest nations.  “The Paris Agreement cannot be implemented without climate finance….The failure of rich countries to deliver adequate resources has severe ramifications for people and communities in the Least Developed Countries and around the world that are already bearing the brunt of climate change on a daily basis.”
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Humans started changing the climate about 7,000 years ago.  Bill Ruddiman, a legendary figure in climate science, was one of the authors of this fascinating study about how early farmers and loggers kept the Earth from slipping into another Ice Age long before the Industrial Revolution.  “They document widespread deforestation in Europe beginning around 6,000 years ago, the emergence of large farming settlements in China 7,000 years ago, plus the spread of rice paddies — robust sources of methane — throughout northeast Asia by 5,000 years ago.”  Not a bad idea, if we had just known when to quit.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1254

Posted on September 11, 2018 by Carl Campbell
More chart study.  I believe the one chart that is hard to find and seldom seen is of literally vital importance.  It has implications that no one ever talks about–so that is exactly what I am going to do, in my own fumbling and sadly unscientific sort of way.  (Maybe someone who is more professional can pick up the ball and do it right!)  The second chart, which is basically the one constantly referred to in all climate change writings, is needed for comparison, and I think the best version has the same source, namely the James Hansen website, which uses good data and is kept up to date reasonably well.  The two charts I use both have an 1880-1920 base period, which is thought to closely represent the genuine pre-industrial numbers that are simply unavailable.  The one chart is only offered on pdf, and the most compatible version of the other is also stuck on pdf, which in both cases is something of an inconvenience for filing and disseminating, that maybe Hansen could correct some day.

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1.  go to…http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/…on the 5th line below the top chart, click the 1889-1920 base period link for a totally improved representation.
…on the 2nd line below, click on “pdf” for the best view of the image.
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One more caveat.  On both charts the numbers you see before 1950 are open to question, much more so than the later ones.  This is particularly true in the case of sea surface measurements, and there is a common belief that those which were reported during the war years in the early 40s are the most unreliable of all.  Almost every year has a story behind it, some larger than others, like big volcanoes, El Nino events and so on.  Our main interest is centered on the basic trend that has take shape since about 1975, a time of the most explosive increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases, which can readily be seen on charts elsewhere.  (All of the Hansen charts are also worth studying.)
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Land and sea.  Land and sea.  That is the sticky one.  Its story is seldom told, but what a story.  Where to begin?  I believe it provides glaring evidence that the climate science establishment, best represented by the IPCC, has been following the wrong track to start with, and beyond that has been unable to accommodate much of the creative research published in the most recent years.  As a result the whole concept of climate sensitivity has become obsolete and so has the foundation on which the Paris Agreement was built.  The radically uneven and continuously diverging way in which land and ocean regions are warming is in fact not being taken into account.  The “global temperature” curve has become a meaningless fiction, and that is because lower atmosphere air temperatures over the oceans, 70% of the total, don’t really mean anything that is of consequence for what the vast majority of humans are exposed to every day.  Where we live temperatures on average have risen by 1.6 to 1.7C, even 1.8 in a recent extreme year, not the 1.1 we always hear about.  That is why day after day we keep being surprised by the intensity of a string of unexpected events.  When the fictitious global average number finally hits 1.5, which will largely depend on how various ocean currents that move the ocean heat around feel like circulating, we landlubbers will be seeing 2.0 and all of its gruesome effects well to the back of our rear-view mirror.
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Sensitivity (defined as the expected rise in global air temperature due to a quick doubling of atmospheric CO2.)  It needs to be organized in a way that, first of all, shows the expected change of temperature on continental land, where there is a now-demonstrated minimum of any delaying effects due to “thermal inertia.”  When change in the air temperature over seas is included, making sensitivity a truly global measure, inertia must be taken into account because today so much heat is slowly being diverted from the surface into the deeper waters rather than upward.  Eventually, after perhaps a hundred years or more, that will cease, and surface air will catch up with the temperature of air over land.  That can happen only when the the ocean surface throws as much heat (per unit of area) into the air as land, instead of allowing so much to drop below.  Beyond that point, all of the many other changes that are destined to occur because of the warming, especially changes of an albedo nature, will determine the ultimate sensitivity outcome after many hundreds of years, probably quite a bit higher yet.
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In the present warming episode the land and sea charts are telling us that sensitivity is almost certainly greater than three degrees before any of the really long range effects, but not necessarily more than 3.5, and it will very likely take at least one hundred years for the oceans to add the full amount of outbound radiation needed to complete their share of this total.  With respect to sea level rise the oceans are already contributing their share or more of the heat that is required by delivering it from the underside of coastal ice, as they are quite able to do.
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More news stories again tomorrow.  Here is one for today that puts things into perspective quite well, except that he misses the point I have been trying to make.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1254

Climate Letter #1253

Posted on September 10, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A problem to fix.  In two recent Climate Letters, #1239 and 1250, I posted a certain link which worked fine in my computer but probably not in any others because of the way the page  had been converted from pdf to HTML for easy filing.  My mistake.  Here I will show how you can open the page with no need to send an attachment.  Go first via this link to a set of charts from James Hansen’s website–http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/.  Below the first chart, on the fifth line down, click the link with the 1880-1920 base period, which opens onto a different chart that has some improvements but only via pdf.  This is what I think is one of the most important climate charts that exists for us to reckon with, and should not be buried this way.  Please go back to those two earlier letters and read again about why it is so useful.

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As a sidebar, there is an interesting “widget” that will give you some idea of how much excess heat has been collected by the Earth and held in storage, mostly at depth in the oceans.  That oceanic heat has created new climate conditions, so to speak, for almost all kinds of marine species that live in those waters. Those of us who live on land have a totally different kind of climate, heated in a different sort of way, with the focus on air temperature, not water.
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Now, keep the above chart handy while I give you the link to another, also from Hansen’s website, which records the average global temperature, this time through 2017, using the same base period…http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/ —This is basically the official record of anomaly that is constantly referred to, including the basis for understanding the targets set by the Paris Agreement.  You can see how the numbers all sit in relation to those shown in the chart that has the land and ocean averages.  These numbers are created by averaging the other two sets, weighted by about 70% in favor of oceans and 30% land.  That means whatever the oceans are doing, usually with respect to the way they swallow and stow away excess incoming energy, is heavily reflected in the makeup of the global average.  The actual trend on land, over any corresponding period, can be quite different, but not get the full attention it deserves.  This has been happening most of the time ever since 1975, with one big exception, the 2015-16 El Nino event, which temporarily created a huge change in the overall surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean.  That was enough to sharply raise the average for all oceans.  (The same event also caused temperatures on land to rise abnormally, but for a different set of reasons.)  One should always keep in mind the fact that, on balance, air temperatures at the bottom of the atmosphere, while in constant exchange, tend to closely match existing temperatures of the dense surfaces of the globe, either solid or liquid, that lie directly below.
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Speaking of wind movement, there is something going on right now in the Atlantic that adds a great deal to this narrative, well told in the main video in the link below.  Ocean heat buildup can be removed in a very special way, and most abruptly, by what we call hurricanes.  The result is a local cooling of the warm ocean surface and underlying body as well, but not in a way we consider a blessing.  Is this going to be the kind of wake-up call about climate change that Americans seem to require?
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In future days I am going to write more about this land and ocean split, and what it may mean for the big picture. One quick thought, which I mentioned in an earlier letter, is that if we could completely stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we might simultaneously gain a complete stop to the increase of air temperatures over land. In that respect, while we have already lost the 1.5C race we would still have an opportunity to stay under 2.0, while hanging on around where we are now–on land, that is. We’d still be watching the oceans add heat at depth and on the surface until, like the land is largely doing even now, the ocean surface was able to release as much energy out to space as it was collecting from inputs. All such release activity will remain impeded by existing levels of greenhouse gases until those levels are somehow reduced, greatly so, which will be the next big challenge.
Carl

 

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1253