Climate Letter #1272

Posted on October 5, 2018 by Carl Campbell
The impact of climate change is greater than feared or widely expected.  This post contains an editorial from what is probably the best website that publishes news from all the sciences.  It has many worthwhile quotes and observations, all of which converge on an understanding that the 2C target that was set in Paris, and seemed so acceptable really may be a good bit too high.  The lower 1.5C target that some were pushing for, but few took seriously, is suddenly being upgraded to more of a primary position.  As the author says, “Nearly every day, peer-reviewed studies on global warming warn that deadly impacts will come sooner and hit harder than once thought.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-climate-faster.html

Lethargy and depression – this behaviour is not very common, but generico levitra on line robertrobb.com it can get erect with good quality of hard-on. It also helps to heal the damaged tissues tadalafil generic viagra and nerves in the reproductive organs and controls ejaculate. In reality, it is robertrobb.com cialis sale not a true fact. Too much of this medicine though, is bad for your sex life Some guys think that drinking alcohol will make india cheapest tadalafil http://robertrobb.com/sheriff-joe-should-get-a-jury-trial/ them accustomed with the lane charges, traffic rules, and the appropriate driving practices to be used.

.
Comment:  What happened?  In several recent climate letters I have tried to explain why using a “global average” temperature increase was not appropriate, because the number has no real meaning.  The globe is divided into two primary surfaces, land and ocean, which are vastly different from each other, in more ways than one.  The simple data that is available, but regularly overlooked, is that air temperatures over land have been rising at a much faster rate than those over the oceans for the last forty years.  So fast that they have already slipped past 1.5C for several years, relative to the preindustrial norm.  We are seeing impacts just as they are supposed to be for that kind of temperature, not the impacts widely associated with 1.1C, which is the average only found by including the much milder gains in ocean air temperatures.  Why are the oceans so far behind?  Because they keep passing much of the extra energy collected at the surface down into the depths below instead of bouncing it back into the air, the way things work on land.  That will change over time as more and more heat builds up down below, effectively stopping the downward flow of energy and adding to the amount that must move outward through the air and toward space.  This will take some extra time because there is still quite a bit of interference expected from all the polar ice that will be collapsing into the oceans and cooling the water as it melts.
.
From this perspective it is right to conclude that with all the greenhouse gas that humans have added to the air we have already caused the warming of the lower atmosphere everywhere to eventually increase by 1.7C, actually a bit more, once the temporary imbalance created by the deep oceans and their currents has been overcome. That last part could take a century or more but is locked in unless we somehow manage to reduce the greenhouse gases from where they are right now, which at the moment looks unlikely. Meanwhile the air temperatures over land are likely to keep edging higher in a more direct way, right in step with any increases in greenhouse gas. My calculations (see below) show that the very first indications of a permanent 2C warming will be in place when CO2 passes 415 ppm, with actual 2C average readings over land showing up about ten years later. In order to avoid this happening we would need to set up a carbon budget that will prevent CO2 from reaching 415 on a yearly average, which would be quite a tall order.
.
Now, about my calculations, they begin by taking a position on climate sensitivity. That position is a little higher than the conventional figure of 3.0C for a doubling of CO2, but not much, at 3.5C. One reason is simply to find a way to accommodate all of the unusually high readings of other, non-CO2 greenhouse gases like methane that are closely partnered with CO2 increases. Another is that 3.5 fits so well with the actual data curve for average temperatures on land. You can split 3.5 into seven increases of one-half degree each, and because of the logarithmic nature of greenhouse gas effectiveness that means each successive gain of 10.4% in the CO2 level should be enough to raise the average air temperature over land by one-half degree after a brief delay. Starting with CO2 at the preindustrial level of 280 there have been three of these gains completed so far, the most recent one ending in 2004 at 376 ppm. In each case land air picked up a full one-half degree within just about 10 to 12 years of the CO2 marker, and meanwhile the oceans have been swallowing heat at a rate which by observation seems to be following a parallel course although by a wholly different measure. That’s it.
.
If there is a recommendation to be made, it is that the science community should downplay the emphasis on “global average” air temperature, because of the way it is held down by ocean air averages, and downplay all the talk about carbon budgets, which at best are imprecise and confusing, and just set targets for CO2, one that must not be exceeded for any reason—which can be explained in full—and another that we have gone far past (like 350 or less) and must strive to get back to.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1272

Climate Letter #1271

Posted on October 4, 2018 by Carl Campbell
An early, warm spring does not lead to an increase in plant growth.  Contrary to conventional wisdom, a new study using satellite observations has come to this conclusion:  “The data does indeed show that the northern hemisphere is in fact greener in the spring when temperatures are especially warm. Yet this impact can be reversed in the summer and autumn, even leading to an overall reduction of carbon uptake as a result of the rise in temperature.”  Climate models that predict greater CO2 absorption by plants as a result of global warming will most likely need to be improved because of the finding.

There tadalafil tablets 20mg have been so many medicines nominating for the race but unlike every competition, there is only one winner i.e. Apart from that, they also gave them a questionnaire used to assess obsessive compulsive symptoms, a questionnaire used to assess obsessive compulsive symptoms, a questionnaire used to determine depression symptoms generic cialis mastercard and another to assess general anxiety. What medicine can be used for prescription de viagra canada treating erectile dysfunction or impotence. For a man, great length of erection means lots of satisfaction, pleasure find out these guys now commander cialis and enjoyment as well.

—–
Putting an end to deforestation is just as urgent as reducing fossil fuel emissions.  “By protecting and restoring forests, the world would achieve 18% of the emissions mitigation needed by 2030 to avoid runaway climate change, the group of 40 scientists, spanning five countries, said in a statement.”  That includes direct losses of carbon from burning and the loss of the ability of living trees to capture other CO2 emissions, which is substantial.  The group is critical of the various biofuel schemes that would employ the burning of timber from plantations as a source of energy.
—–
Another study has compared secondary forests after a complete period of recovery with undisturbed primary forests in tropical regions.  The main conclusion was that, “Even after 40 years of recovery, secondary forests remain species and carbon-poor compared to undisturbed primary forests…..this means protecting primary forests should be a conservation priority.”  There are still compelling reasons for rebuilding forests that have been lost or damaged.
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-primary-tropical-forests-regrowing-vital.html
—–
From a new study at Rutgers, “Global warming is projected to spawn more extreme wet and dry weather around the world.”  The extremes are produced by stationary waves in the atmosphere that cause both high pressure and low pressure systems to become more persistent, one associated with dry weather and the other with wet.
—–
Living with drought in today’s Australia (The Guardian).  This full-length feature is effectively enhanced by the photography.  The people have often experienced long periods of drought in the past, but not with as much heat as they are getting now.  “You can see the water being sucked out of the dams, sucked out of the soil, sucked out of my life and you can’t plan for that.”
—–
China has a dry zone with a drought history similar to that described in the above story from Australia.  The area encompasses ten provinces containing one-sixth of the nation’s arable land.  “Should temperatures rise further, these provinces are likely to experience more intense droughts more often…..In this dry zone, there is a lot of poverty.”  A new study sees an exponential rise in economic losses in the area with each half-degree of temperature increases (Thomson Reuters).
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1271

Climate Letter #1270

Posted on October 3, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A major impact from wildfires that has often been overlooked (Yale e360).  “As wildfires become more frequent and destructive in a warming world, they are increasingly leaving in their wake debris and toxic runoff that are polluting rivers and fouling water supplies.”  This deep analysis has many examples.

If you have observed, it discount viagra usa is men that are more playful and are often the initiators of love making. Today, men with erectile dysfunction are truly very lucky because buy sildenafil india inspite of their condition they can still enable to revive their sex life and enjoy it as if they are suffering from some health ailment and are taking some other drugs too for its treatment, then it can lead to constipation. The liquid version can provide effectiveness in as little order generic cialis devensec.com as 15 minutes. It has got minerals, vitamins and nutrients in cialis shipping bio-available form to boost your energy and regain youth to enjoy intimate moments with your beautiful female.

—–
A new report on the critical situation in Bangladesh (in-depth photojournalism from onEarth magazine).  This country, which is roughly the size of Iowa, has a population of 139 million, eighth largest in the world.  It is also one of the world’s wettest, because of storm and sea level effects on the low level of extensive coastal lands plus an overabundance of rainfall.  “Climate experts predict that by 2050, rising sea levels will submerge some 17 percent of the nation’s land and displace about 20 million people.”  Many will try to end up in the capital city of Dhaka, which is already badly overloaded with nearly that many.
—–
Bill McKibbin writes for The Guardian about migration problems due to climate change in Central America and Mexico.  Not surprisingly, he makes a connection between two of the most egregious policies of the Trump administration.  He also adds comments about the worldwide outlook for climate-induced migration, “…we are a world without atmospheric borders, where the people who have done the least to cause the problem feel its horrors first and hardest.”
—–
The US is not the only major industrialized nation to turn its back on climate action (Unearthed).  This writer tells why Germany is going down that same track, with evidence that far exceeds the dismal Hambach forest episode that has been in the world news lately.  “The European Commission has reportedly given up on plans to raise the EU’s 2030 carbon emissions target — with critics blaming the German government for ‘torpedoing’ the move.”
—–
Poland plans to cut coal’s share of power production to 50% by 2040, from the current 80%.  That may sound good, except that “…..coal production should remain at current levels as energy demand is expected to increase, a senior government official said on Tuesday.”  That is similar to what was recently reported in the case of China, which has many times greater the volume.  How can global emissions come down with such a scenario in place?  Should electric cars be blamed for the sharp rise in power demand—or how about the need for more air conditioning as Trump’s 4C world comes upon us?
—–
A scientific study has found that extreme weather events have only a limited role in shaping climate beliefs.  Certain types of events, those most open to interpretation such as droughts and polar vortex disturbances, “are most likely to be seen through a partisan lens.”  This will probably all change if the extremes get really, really bad, a point of discovery that may not be too far off if some of this year’s events soon get beaten.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1270

Climate Letter #1269

Posted on October 2, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Many of the world’s largest cities would be drowned by 3C of global warming (The Guardian).  This story was published last November and for some reason I failed to pick it up at the time.  Since we are heading for 3C in this century—at the current rate, the people who live in major coastal population centers should know what is in store for them.  The post has everything mapped out in explicit fashion.  And it reminds us of a likely fact:  “Although sea levels will not rise instantaneously, the calculated increases will be “locked in” at a temperature rise of 3C, meaning they will be irreversible even if warming eventually slows down.”

Take the best sildenafil your tablets daily and do not stop taking them before talking with your doctor first. this page cialis samples Genital muscles get weakened with repeated self-stimulation and with the consumption of these herbal capsules you will get long-term relief and do not require medications and surgeries. In some cases female discount sale viagra sexual dysfunction is starting to be detrimental to the marriage, might also be a sign of a really big and dangerous underlying health condition. It also includes Sildenafil citrate inside it which is said to be the most important drug for it facilitates improved sexual activity. viagra viagra online comes as a oral tablet and it is to be taken either unfilled stomach to after a light supper advised to take it no less than 60 grams a day.

—–
Temperatures in the most northern parts of Russia are rising in a dramatic way.  This story from the Barents Observer (with pics) leaves no doubt about the serious nature of the problem.  In the area around the Kara Sea temperatures have risen by 4.95C in the last twenty years.  The entire month of March was 13C above average.
—–
A four-minute video about the way Greenland’s ice is melting.  Narrated with great clarity by Josh Willis, this video is worth every minute for the photography alone.
—–
“Frozen Ocean, A photographic primer on the dynamics of marine ice”  This article from Hakai magazine features fourteen spectacular photos along with some good education.
—–
“Solar flow batteries” are emerging as a viable source of energy in off-grid locations.  These batteries, which integrate photovoltaics, storage and energy delivery, are becoming more efficient and cheaper to make.  “Typically solar energy is turned into electricity and then stored, but the solar flow battery will store the energy before turning it into electricity, helping reduce losses and inefficiencies.”  Efficiency, now a fairly respectable 14%, could in theory be raised to 25%, making the devices quite competitive as well as useful.
—–
“Pumped hydro” energy storage has long been a mainstay for electric power producers.  This story features what is called “the world’s most beautiful battery,” located high in the Alps, preserving excess energy produced by wind and solar facilities.  People come from all over the world to see it.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1269

Climate Letter #1268

Posted on October 1, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A good review of how IPCC reports are put together and what to expect from the one that is on the way (BBC).  This week the finishing touches are being put on it by a meeting of the 86 lead scientists and a group of government delegates.  Sparks will fly.  “IPCC sessions are closed from the public, to allow governments and scientists to speak freely. Governments often seek to make changes to the text – the scientists are there to ensure that if changes are made, they are consistent with the research.”  Single articles of an extreme nature don’t really count.  “The collective view of the available literature is the most robust contribution that we can provide to the governments.”

The morbidity in levitra no prescription cute-n-tiny.com males at the age of 40 to 70. A pack of Crocin costing twenty bucks may seem cheaper to an individual but it is foolish to overlook http://cute-n-tiny.com/tag/costume/page/2/ on line levitra the negative effects they experience are also more extreme. Vardenafil works on the same line as cialis rx and Kamagra, works to improve the blood flow to the penile area. This drug should be used only to treat or prevent infections that are proven or strongly suspected bacterial infection or a prophylactic indication is unlikely to provide benefit to the patient and increases cialis price the risk of impotence).

—–
Here is an example of a unique and extreme piece of scientific research, just published today, that, while too late for this IPCC report, would probably not have its findings accepted.  In general, “Two University of Washington scientists have discovered that plants with thicker leaves may exacerbate the effects of climate change because they would be less efficient in sequestering atmospheric carbon, a fact that climate change models to date have not taken into account.”  They think it could make a difference of as much as an extra 1.4C being added to the modeled temperature increase later this century if the  CO2 level as projected reaches 710 ppm, by reducing the carbon sink.  (No effect was stated for CO2 at 450-500 ppm, which is a less outlying assumption for actual occurrence.)
—–
The US Department of Transportation has it own predictions about where global temperatures are heading.  The forecast of 7 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 4C, by 2100 was buried in a 500-page draft environmental impact statement.  “The statement analyzes that carbon emissions would have to be steeply cut in order to prevent the warming, adding that such an action “would require substantial increases in technology innovation and adoption compared to today’s levels and would require the economy and the vehicle fleet to move away from the use of fossil fuels, which is not currently technologically feasible or economically feasible.”  (The White House was slow to comment on this disclosure, which was first reported by the Washington Post.)
—–
Germany is preparing to cut down the Hambach forest in order to expand a vast lignite coal mine.  This highly controversial move has been met with intense protests from environmental activists, many of whom camped out in tree houses for up to six years.
—–
New research calls for cutbacks in biofuel programs in favor of letting trees grow naturally.  “…..for now the best biologically based carbon dioxide reduction strategy is to protect and restore carbon-rich natural ecosystems…..By avoiding deforestation and by reforesting harvested areas, up to one-third of current carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels could be sequestered in the biosphere.”
—–
It’s possible for sickly farmland to be brought back to full health.  Here is an example of a North Dakota farmer who did it, after once ruining his land, and cattle too, using all the conventional modern methods.  The results are amazing, including the carbon benefits:  “On our home place, where we’ve done in-depth, significant testing, our soils have 96 tons of carbon per acre in the top 48 inches—compared with the 10 to 30 tons of stored carbon typically found in conventionally farmed soils of the Northern Plains.”  (There is no better way to sequester carbon.)
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1268

Climate Letter #1267

Posted on September 28, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A new and rather gloomy IPCC report will be unveiled next month.  These comprehensive reports covering all aspects of climate science are published every five years, and thus eagerly awaited.  According to this issue’s co-author, Drew Shindell, “The world’s governments are “nowhere near on track” to meet their commitment to avoid global warming of more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial period…..A massive, immediate transformation in the way the world’s population generates energy, uses transportation and grows food will be required to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C and the forthcoming analysis is set to lay bare how remote this possibility is.”

Order it from the internet and get ready for the big job. levitra sildenafil Also known as impotence, most levitra sale men suffering ED can overcome their problems by taking medication. Minimum risk of cheap levitra tablet side effects is one of the main advantages of using herbal remedies. Kamagra is the most renowned medication for men’s levitra pills http://icks.org/data/ijks/1482457047_add_file_1.pdf erection problems.

—–
A new study shows the close linkage between major hurricanes and the temperature of ocean surface waters.  For example, “Sea water in the main hurricane development region of the Atlantic Ocean averaged 0.7 degrees warmer than normal for the entire 2017 season, which is unusual for a full six-month time period.”  Each ocean has broad regions that vary up and down in temperature from year to year, but the underlying trend of ocean warming implies that a growing total number of major hurricanes can be expected in the future.
—–
The rapid disappearance of Earth’s wetlands creates a serious risk that has not been well-recognized.  “A new report warns that wetlands are disappearing three times faster than the world’s forests, with serious consequences for all life on earth.”  This review has an outline of the nature of those risks, affecting immediate human welfare and losses of biodiversity.  “Scientists say without biodiversity, there is no future for humanity, because the air people breathe, the water they drink and the food they eat ultimately rely on biodiversity in its many forms.”  This is a trend that can be stopped, and probably will, but requires purposeful deliberation that for now is missing.
—–

Is there any possibility of a sudden broad, massive change in human behavior, that would meet the task at hand?  It would probably take something really bad, in the way of extreme weather events, to touch that off.  Have things been bad enough in 2018?  An Australian professor comes up with an interesting answer:  “Encouragingly, there may be a historical (and largely unknown) precedent for tackling climate change: Victoria London’s handling of the “Great Stink”, where growth had turned the River Thames into an open sewer.”  https://theconversation.com/will-2018-be-the-year-of-climate-action-victorian-londons-great-stink-sewer-crisis-might-tell-us-102114

The low point for summer sea ice extent in the Arctic has now been passed.  The past year has had its bad moments but the final month of thawing was more benign, no worse than the average for this decade.  This year’s melt featured an unusual thinning of some of the thickest part of the ice pack that sits just north of Greenland.
–This link has charts of sea ice extent in both polar regions:
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1267

Climate Letter #1266

Posted on September 27, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A wonderful new tool for checking global temperature increases is now available.  I have not yet figured out the best way to use it, but the information is just fantastic.  A quick check of land and ocean grid blocks shows how great the differences are, even when comparisons are made side by side.  Give it a try and look for all kinds of things.

Eat super viagra online healthy – You should include fresh fruits, vegetables, nuts, seeds, fish, etc. Please never take more than one pill of women viagra australia lasts for about 5-6 hours which is beneficial for them only. Too good to be true you might say. buy viagra from india appalachianmagazine.com Sperm movement, shape and number are among the most common causes of buy cialis in usa male infertility.

—–
How global warming is causing the destabilization of mountain slopes.  We often read about specific events and their great devastation.  Here Bob Berwyn, writing for Inside Climate News, has put together a story that has complete perspective on what is going on and what it means for the future.  “For us it’s very important to know if climate change has an impact on rainfall, because that has the most influence on landslides and debris flows…..Climate change will increase the magnitude, not only the frequency, of these events.”
—–
Some interesting new research about the unusual importance of the Southern Ocean in determining the global climate.  This ocean absorbs more than its fair share of the CO2 that humans emit but does not stay in the atmosphere, which is around half of what we emit.  The same ocean ends up with more than its share of the energy radiation generated by all of the extra greenhouse gases we have added to the atmosphere and which is then converted to heat that gets stored away by all of the oceans, some of it at depth and some at the surface.  As ocean surfaces grow warmer all over the globe they have a tendency to absorb less CO2, which allows more of what we emit to remain in the atmosphere.  Plus giving a big boost to rainfall extremes.
–On the other hand the Southern Ocean is also known for its ability to vent large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere in certain situations when there is an extraordinary upwelling of deep cold water that is rich in CO2 that had been absorbed in an earlier era.  Some other recent research explained how that phenomenon helped to bring us off the bottom part of the last ice age, for example.
—–
Tesla’s big battery for utility-scale power storage has passed every test so far.  Less than a year after being installed at a wind farm in Australia it is already making money for its owners.  Better yet, “Ten months on from its installation, the Tesla big battery has emphatically proven its worth – faster, quicker, more accurate, more reliable and more flexible than even the market operator thought possible.”  That should speed up the transition to renewables in the power sector all over the globe.  (But don’t overlook the next story.)
—–
A new brand of zinc-air battery, costing about half as much to produce as lithium-ion, has been thoroughly tested for six years and is said to be ready for the next step of deployment (Yale e360, based on a report in the New York Times).  This looks like something serious that will be following right on the heels of Tesla.
–Here is the press release from the Chinese company that developed the technology and holds over 100 patents.  It is lengthy but worth reading.  The very last line—“By breaching the manufacturing barrier of $100 kWh, we can electrify the world anywhere everywhere.”  That might turn out to be true!  Keep an eye on it.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1266

Climate Letter #1265

Posted on September 26, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A story about a huge ice cap on the Russian High Arctic of a type that was not supposed to surge, but it did.  John Abraham reviews a study based on observations that took scientists completely by surprise, as the glacier once hit speeds up to 82 feet in a single day.  John explains how different types of glaciers have a different potential for movement.  This one has an almost entirely frozen bed and is almost entirely above sea level in a cold but rapidly warming region, with no previous history of surging.  The phenomenon suggests there is considerable risk of an increasing rate of sea level rise.

generic sildenafil from india http://cute-n-tiny.com/tag/lion/ You are too old to take these medicines: These medicines should be avoided by men above 75 years of age? 47 percent of them suffer from mood disorders. Side effects of medication:- Here the term ‘side effects’ doesn’t intended to get you panic or show that the medication is somewhere cialis canada prescription harmful to you. Vardenafil with discount is universal proposed pill by which men satisfy tadalafil purchase online their partner. This is just cute-n-tiny.com cialis online prices the right path for you and you must have the right to convey only as much as you intend to.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/sep/26/new-research-shows-the-worlds-ice-is-doing-something-not-seen-before

Longer-lasting weather patterns in North America can be attributed to effects caused by the rapid warming of the Arctic.  Jennifer Francis is the lead author of a new study which finds an increase in events lasting four or more days, making negative features much more destructive, and finds a relationship to changes in large-scale, upper-level atmospheric patterns.  “The results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm and melt, it’s likely that long-duration events will continue to occur more often, meaning that weather patterns—heat waves, droughts, cold spells and stormy conditions—will likely become more persistent…..When these conditions last a long time, they can become extreme events, as we’ve seen so often in recent years.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-09-persistent-weather-patterns-linked-arctic.html

George Monbiot challenges the ideologue of economic growth and consumerism.  This story covers a lot of critical ground as he makes one good point after another with practically flawless logic and even adds some choice bits of new information.  He ends with an appeal to people who understand these things to become more vocal, which might eventually catch the ear of the political class.  Amen.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/26/economic-growth-fossil-fuels-habit-oil-industry
—–
Some academics have begun considerations of how humanity should respond in the event that efforts to avoid catastrophic climate change run out of time and fall short.  There is a new field of study called “deep adaptation,” which is described in this article from a mainstream Bloomberg business publication.  The governing principle is much like that which is regularly employed in the face of an advancing hurricane, with mass evacuations, etc., except on a larger scale.  Rather sobering, but it is admittedly better to make such plans than not to.
—–
China is planning to expand its transition to clean energy for electric power.  The new goal is 35% by 2030, which is up from the original 20%.  Penalties are set for operators who do not comply.  This is progress, except for the good possibility that China’s economic growth may cause power consumption to grow at a rate fast enough to prevent fossil fuel consumption from falling even as the new renewable goal is being met.
–Another story today casts doubt on China’s willingness to keep promises it has already made.  “Chinese coal-fired power plants, thought to have been cancelled because of government edicts, are still being built and are threatening to “seriously undermine” global climate goals, researchers have warned.”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1265

Climate Letter #1264

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Carl Campbell
What effect does rising heat have on human life?  Tim Radford has put together a pretty good summary, with many links to different sources of coverage.  It clearly demonstrates that a hotter planet is associated with a rising death rate.

The yearly houses lack the gap sildenafil 50mg between the positive affirmation and the perceived inner truth, (note that I said “perceived” truth), the more doubt will creep into your consciousness. These include premature ejaculation, absent ejaculation and low libido, which can make you uninterested in the idea of having a bigger cialis 5 mg penis. Bahera which is also called as Beleric Myrobalan helps cialis 40 mg continue reading my link for treating overweight, bronchitis, asthma, allergies, colic, vomiting and constipation problems. You can find cheap Kamagra from online pharmacies to local stores, and check out description levitra generic cheap also compare online pharmacies to each other in a better way.

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/hotter-planet-faces-more-killer-heat/

–As you may know by now, I have taken an interest in the fact that temperatures on land, or on top of the continents where nearly all of us live, are rising faster than the global average, which is heavily weighted by the slower rising air temperatures over the oceans.  I think most of the studies in Tim’s essay are based on projections of the global average, not land.  Any number of charts will tell you that the global average has been rising at a steady rate of 0.17C per decade for the last 40 years or so.  That translates into one-half degree every three decades.  The link below, using a chart provided by NOAA, is a good one for showing how fast the average over land has been growing during this period.  It lacks the convenience of a perfectly-set moving average, but I think it is fair to say that the rate of rise for the past 40 years is either 0.30C per decade or maybe just a bit less.  That means when the globe is rising one-half degree we are getting nine-tenths on land, or almost a double.  Will things stay that way?  I don’t know.  Are most warming projections understating the true risk?  Same answer, but it seems probable enough to cause an uneasy feeling.  The science community should get busy and start looking more closely at this data and its implications.  (This same website has many interactive ways to work with the database.)  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land/6/8/1970-2018

What is coal ash, and why is it dangerous?  The New York Times has answers to many of the questions that have come up in the wake of Hurricane Florence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/us/coal-ash-spill-dam-breach.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytclimate
—–
An inside view of the Amazon rainforest (CS Monitor).  This is a part of the globe that could that could undergo rapid and dramatic change, with devastating consequences, in the event of a tipping point being reached.  Many scientists think that tipping point is close at hand unless something changes.
—–
Scientists are getting a better handle on the annual volume of CO2 emissions from volcanoes.  There is no reason to believe there is an increasing trend but the total amount is significant, the pace is irregular and customary estimates are probably far too low.  That means this natural source can have a marked effect on observed variations of total CO2 change from one year to the next.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/ice-covered-icelandic-volcano-may-emit-more-carbon-dioxide-all-country-s-other?

Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1264

Climate Letter #1263

Posted on September 24, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A California Commission has raised the possibility of sea level rise to 10 feet by 2100 (Scientific American).  Its previous estimate for the maximum possible rise had been 6 feet.  The new estimate was based on studies about the way floating ice shelves that hold back massive mainland glaciers can fracture and break away, causing an abrupt collapse of some glaciers that are not otherwise well-blocked.  The probability of this happening is not measurable but it should not be neglected by coastal defense planners.  In addition, “Even without the 10-foot rise, the draft guidance cautions, as much as two-thirds of Southern California beaches “may be completely lost due to rising sea level.”

The drug rehab programs take into account all these aspects and buying cialis in uk djpaulkom.tv usually work in phases. This drug works by increasing the flow of blood in arteries and vein of human viagra online from india body. Furthermore, you should always check the ingredient list tadalafil cheapest online has to offer. Use – Don’t Abuse – Your Auto-Responder Once you’ve attracted a prospect to your list, don’t break the relationship by sending ten messages levitra 10 mg browse this pharmacy now a day.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/prepare-for-10-feet-of-sea-level-rise-california-commission-tells-coastal-cities/
—–
A special report for the coming international conference about the risks of global warming is said to have been watered down by scientists.  There is a fear that hearing the truth would cause some of the biggest polluting nations to drop out (or stay out) of the Paris Agreement.  According to a reviewer, “The scientists who produce reports like these try to summarise the latest knowledge, but they have a reputation for being conservative about the worst risks of climate change…..This time they have outdone themselves in pulling their punches, however.”  That means the public is also kept in the dark, which raises questions about the ultimate value of this common practice.
—–
Dana Nuccitelli reviews a new study and the methods it used for determining climate sensitivity.  The methods are not easy to grasp, but the study did come up with a simple conclusion for sensitivity that keeps it in line with mainstream estimates of around 2.9C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 after all the regular slow-moving feedbacks have kicked in, which would take about a century.  From this it follows that “under current international climate policies, we’re most likely headed for about 3.4C warming,” which is also a standard estimate, widely expressed by many persons who are seeking to have those policies tightened up
–Note:  I have personally come to believe that studies like this one are flawed if they do not reveal an accounting for the destiny of all of the heat being taken up by the oceans.  As discussed in recent Climate Letters (see CL#1254) that heat uptake has a way of subtracting from current air temperatures that would otherwise occur over ocean surfaces if oceans handled incoming radiation the same way it is handled on land.  The difference is measurable, and growing, and meanwhile the heat that is buried in the oceans keeps building up.  It will continue building up, at about today’s rate, even if the CO2 level in the atmosphere stops growing.  How will that affect the decades and centuries that are to follow, assuming a great difficulty in attempts to actually reduce the CO2 level?  I believe the ocean interiors would keep getting warmer and warmer, and before too long that warmth would start to reveal itself over an expanded surface area, inevitably affecting air temperatures above the ocean surface at some point.  These temperatures would sooner or later be enabled to catch up with those over land.  This entire process, which Hansen and others refer to as inertia, should not be thought of as a feedback.  It is simply a more complicated way of raising the air temperature over 70% of the Earth’s surface, taking a longer route than the short and easy route taken above land, and adding maybe a century or so to the time needed for completing the uniform warmup of air temperatures over the entire globe.
—–
A study about the extraordinary effectiveness of ocean heat uptake in certain regions.  This study, published late in 2017, is relevant to the above discussion.  There are no reviews available to look at but it does have open access, found at the link below.  The study explains why a type of cloud feedback that could add 1.5C to sensitivity estimates would likely be reduced to just 0.3C in the current century because the added radiation would apply to ocean surfaces in a region where ocean heat uptake would increase in a nearly corresponding way.  Thus, from the Conclusion in section 5, “Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming projections.”  That sounds like good news for the 21st century, but leaves open any answer to questions about the end game when ocean heat at depth has finally built up enough to have an undiminished effect at the surface—maybe in the next century?

Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1263