Climate Letter #1292

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Threats from all of the worst impacts of climate change are concentrated in one country—Vietnam (Mongabay).  “The country’s diverse geography means it is hit by typhoons, landslides, flooding and droughts, weather events expected to worsen in coming years…..Vietnam was named among nine countries where at least 50 million people will be exposed to impacts of rising sea levels and more powerful storms, among other dangers.”  Forty percent of the fertile Mekong Delta would be lost from just 3.3 feet of sea level rise.
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Ocean shock—the planet’s hidden climate change (Reuters).  This infographic contains a neat summary of the marine species migration that has been prompted by rising water temperatures.  The condition affects a vast majority of all living things, occupying 71% of the planet’s surface plus a well-filled third dimension that is lacking on land.
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The oceans are also enduring their own kind of “deforestation,” with vital consequences for the air above.  This story is about “the so-called blue carbon stored and sequestered by coastal vegetated ecosystems, such as mangroves, saltmarshes, macroalgae and seagrasses…..Although these cover only 0.5 % of the seafloor, their carbon storage capacity accounts for more than 55 % of the carbon stored by photosynthetic activity on Earth.”  As a vital part of the oceanic carbon sink they “contribute significantly to climate change mitigation and alleviation of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations….. Alarmingly, in the past 50 years, at least 1/3rd of the distribution area of coastal vegetated ecosystems has been lost.”  These facts are not being accounted for in the planning of strategies required for halting future climate change.
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The Guardian has commentaries from several scientists, plus a few points of its own, on the WWF report that was issued yesterday and reviewed in my letter.  One shocking point is that the population decline of vertebrates that was reported to be 60% was up substantially from a decline of 52% for this group reported four years ago.
–In Haiti, there is a clear relationship between mass extinction and extreme deforestation:
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There may actually be a way to feed the world while restoring most land to a state suitable for growing forests and protecting the habitats of wildlife.  George Monbiot describes research into producing food for humans by entirely artificial processes.  “Their only ingredients are hydrogen-oxidising bacteria, electricity from solar panels, a small amount of water, carbon dioxide drawn from the air, nitrogen and trace quantities of minerals such as calcium, sodium, potassium and zinc. The food they have produced is 50% to 60% protein; the rest is carbohydrate and fat.”  It sounds like a desperate solution, but maybe the only one that can literally save life on the planet!
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Subsidies for fossil fuel consumption around the globe rose 12% in 2017.  This followed four straight years in which they declined.  Subsidies of this type are supposed to make energy accessible to the poorest members of society.  “However, the reality of the situation is that subsidies are very rarely implemented with the sort of forward-thinking and precision as would make them justifiable, and they have instead disproportionately benefited wealthier segments of society and who use much more of the subsidised fuel.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1291

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The World Wildlife Fund has issued its Living Planet Report for 2018.  The report “presents a sobering analysis of the impact of humans on the world’s wildlife, forests, oceans, rivers, and climate, and the implications for vital services nature provides. The Living Planet Index (LPI) indicates that global populations of fish, birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles declined, on average, by 60 per cent between 1970 and 2014…..Freshwater ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes and wetlands, are continuing to deteriorate at breakneck speed, with species abundance declined by 83% since 1970.”  Everything is linked to human activities, starting with habitat loss and degradation and overexploitation of wildlife, with all of the harm then amplified by climate change.
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-nature-steep-decline-due-human.html
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A leading botanist describes what climate change is doing to many ancient species of trees all over the world.  The baobob and cedars of Lebanon are two prominent examples.  She has many interesting theories and ideas, including a useful proposal that every person in the world should plant a native tree in their own neighborhood every year for six years.
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New research shows that the Arctic became much more humid and wetter 8000 years ago, when temperatures were at a post-glacial peak of warmth.  Scientists have found new tools that reveal this kind of information.  What’s interesting is that the high amount of indicated moisture would require movement of substantial amounts of water vapor northward from lower latitudes in addition to local evaporation.  Since the globe has become even warmer in the last few decades that would help to explain the emerging pattern of high rainfall episodes coming to life in at least some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, a trend that could very well continue.
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Plants are actually getting more nutrients for growth than scientists have thought possible.  Those nutrients are absorbed from the soil at night, a phenomenon not previously recognized, enabling the plants to make more use of the abundant CO2 presence when the sun is shining and they can photosynthesize.  This information can be used by climate models to improve their forecasts of how the carbon sink will operate in the future, and for once that adjustment will be favorable.  In short, “No matter what, plants will not keep up with anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions; it’s just that they might do better than current models suggest.”
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Calcium minerals deposited on the sea floor help to neutralize ocean acidification in a natural way.  The problem now is that we are adding so much CO2 to the water that the most accessible minerals are being used up, turning the color of shallow seabeds from white to brown.  Scientists are concerned about the implications.  “The rate at which CO2 is currently being emitted into the atmosphere is exceptionally high in Earth’s history, faster than at any period since at least the extinction of the dinosaurs. And at a much faster rate than the natural mechanisms in the ocean can deal with, so it raises worries about the levels of ocean acidification in future.”
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/10/23/1804250115
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Losses of worker productivity are expected when temperatures rise.  New surveys have improved the understanding of how this affects workers in developing countries, which is quite unfavorable compared with those in the developed nations.  For example, “Countries in Southeast Asia in a 1.5°C-warming world would suffer the same loss as the developed countries would in a 4°C-warming world.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1290

A story about the world’s largest icefield outside of Greenland and Antarctica.  Yukon’s enormous glaciers are steadily losing mass as temperatures warm and snowfall declines, causing a unique set of dramatic changes.  The story and two related videos feature some fabulous photography.

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Imagery of Super Typhoon Yutu and the damage it did to the Northern Mariana Islands.  The storm is now scheduled to make a second, but weaker, landfall in the Philippines.
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Damage to human health caused by air pollution is quantified by the World Health Organization.  Worldwide totals are shown to be worse than the effects of smoking.  This post in The Guardian maps out the locations where the problem is most severe.  It is noted that overcoming the main sources of the problem would also help to resolve some of the primary causes of climate change, which is no surprise.
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The preservation and restoration of forests is critical for stopping the emissions that cause climate change (Sierra Club magazine).  Burning fossil fuels only covers about two-thirds of the problem; plenty of statistics have been gathered showing that the rest is all about protecting the natural world.  (My last Climate Letter told about the studies of Bill Ruddiman’s group demonstrating that clearing forests and other changes to the land accounted for as much as one degree of global warming over thousands of years prior to the Industrial Revolution.  The same kind of effect is no less true today, with probably less room for error.)
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Canada is experiencing a frightening loss of trees because of climate change (CBC Radio).  “About 40 per cent of Canada is covered in trees. In the North, two factors in particular are leading to forest decline…..Low-lying trees like black spruce are falling over because of too much moisture at their roots due to melting permafrost…..On drier, gravelly slopes like the Rocky Mountains, trees are still standing — but they are browning…..These sites are more exposed and so the warmer, drier air conditions are drying out leaves.”
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Brazil’s newly-elected president raises fears that the Amazon rainforest will suffer a rising rate of losses.  “Bolsonaro has courted the mining and farming lobbies, pledging to roll back environmental protections and gut federal enforcement.”  There will be intense pressures from abroad that try to hold him back, but this is a particularly dangerous situation with respect to stabilizing the climate well beyond Brazil.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1289

Five major crops facing serious dislocation of production because of climate change (NPR).  The one that stands out as a source of deep concern is wheat, and the country likely to suffer the most from this is India.  Lost crops are not always easy to replace, and restoring vital needs by importing may be financially impossible.  Elsewhere, what will Iowa be doing to replace corn?  “According to one study, by the end of the century this part of the Midwest will be more suited for growing cotton, soybeans, grass and forests.”

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Beyond crops, the dislocation of people is one of the biggest of all climate concerns (Earther).  The trickle we are seeing today could fairly soon become a torrent.  “They don’t want to migrate…..They don’t want to be away from their families. They don’t want to be away from the connection they have to their land, but if it’s not producing enough to feed their families, [migration] is one of the solutions they have to do.”  The question of where will they go is in desperate need of meaningful answers.
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The five major river basins that service West Africa are projected to lose 10-40% of their water availability later in this century.  So concludes an ensemble report derived from the results of many recent studies covering an entire range of climate change projections.  Greenhouse gas mitigation would always be of help to reduce the deficit.  West Africa is the location of a large portion of the world’s fastest population growth.
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Evidence confirms the rapid transition of CO2 in and out of the deep Southern Ocean during ice ages.  Air samples of changing CO2 levels have previously been taken from ice cores, but the source of their fluctuations was uncertain.  The new evidence, based on fossilized evidence of deep ocean pH over time, closely matches the air sample fluctuations but in reverse.  “CO2 rise during the last ice age occurs in a series of steps and jumps associated with intervals of rapid climate change…..Deep sea corals capture information about these climate changes in the chemistry of their skeletons but are hard to find…..CO2 rise at the end of the ice age helped drive major melting of ice sheets and sea level rise of over 100 metres.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-antarctic-ocean-carbon-dioxide-ice.html
–Note:  On the chart that shows up on this link, notice how the CO2 level reversed its direction 7000 years ago, rising from about 260 ppm to the pre-industrial age level of 280.  That rise is now attributed not to deep ocean venting but entirely to human activity from working the land.  This has been convincingly explained by Bill Ruddiman and his associates in their many studies, as in the example below.  Without that activity CO2 would have kept on dropping to around 240 by now, with temperatures about 2 degrees C below the present level that has been further amplified by burning fossil fuels.
–Note:  The Ruddiman studies are really quite fascinating, not too difficult to read, and so very helpful in other ways for explaining how the ice ages came and went over 800,000 years, and how we have turned all that around.  If you want to go a little deeper this link will take you to a pdf from a publication in 2014 that has more details:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1288

The New York Times has a review by Brad Plumer of a 369-page report that is focused on negative emissions and carbon sequestration technologies, written by a panel formed from several US government academies.  Their work, which is based on meeting the toughest goals of the Paris Agreement as emphasized in the new IPCC report, basically lays out a program of research activities for government agencies to follow if they can be funded.  There is an interesting twist that reveals why Donald Trump might be interested, from a business point of view.  “The panel’s members conceded that the Trump administration may not find the climate change argument all that compelling, since the president has disavowed the Paris Agreement.  But, Dr. Pacala said, it’s quite likely that other countries will be interested in carbon removal. The United States could take a leading role in developing technologies that could one day be worth many billions of dollars.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/24/climate/global-warming-carbon-removal.html

An infographic about the substantial link between farmers and climate change (Inside Climate News).  Agriculture is currently a big part of the problem, but solutions are available that are attractive in many ways, one of which is an ability to provide meaningful amounts of permanent storage of carbon in the soil.
–If you have an interest, the same source has a lengthy critique of all the things the Farm Bureau has been doing wrong as it worked hand in hand with allies in the fossil fuel industry who have been sowing confusion for decades.  Inside Climate News previously won awards for its similar reporting of the devious behavior of Exxon over the same period.
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The production and processing of raw materials contributes more than half of greenhouse gas emissions.  Moreover, this cause of global warming may be twice as large in 2060 as it is today.  Those are two of the conclusions of a forthcoming report from the OECD, which foresees a steady rise in demand for raw materials across the globe.  Details about the report are provided here by Climate News Network, including a link to the highlights, a preview, released this week.  Various other environmental impacts that need to be resolved are also analyzed.
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A fascinating report from Carbon Tracker provides a warning to financial markets based on the rapid rise of disruption due to acceptance of renewable energy as a substitute for fossil fuels.  A powerful phase change and meltdown of the old order should occur during the decade of the 2020s.  Be sure to watch the 5-minute video speaker.
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The dramatic changes affecting Antarctica as it melts down (National Geographic).  This full-length magazine article is based on the memories of a man who called it home when he grew up.  Terrific photography and highly educational.
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The strongest storm of the year has just passed over US territory in the Pacific.  Super Typhoon Yutu had sustained winds of up to 180 miles per hour, affecting a population of more than 50,000 people, most of whom live on the island of Saipan.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1287

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“Changes in climate forces desperate Guatemalans to migrate” (National Geographic magazine).  This report provides a thorough explanation of what is sparking the migration, with vivid indications that for many a breaking point has been reached.  For example, Guatemala “has the fourth-highest level of chronic malnutrition in the world, and the highest in Latin America. According to the World Food Programme, nearly 50 percent of children under five years old are considered chronically malnourished in Guatemala, a measure that peaks to 90 percent or higher in many rural areas.”
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A new study views the effects of rising sea level on coastal farmland, forcing population shifts.  “In the next 120 years, coastal communities that are home to 1.3 billion people will be inundated with seawater, according to scientific forecasts. This puts about 40 percent of Bangladesh’s agricultural fields in jeopardy and already, residents of coastal areas are experiencing frequent flooding from rising oceans and adapting to the new normal.”  Soil salinity becomes a problem long before any final inundation.
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-climate-sea-threat-farmers-bangladesh.html
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An overview of many recent studies about how the Earth’s climate zones are shifting (Yale e360).  This covers everything from the expansion of deserts to the shrinking of permafrost lands, all of which are happening right now and have every reason to continue.  The one common denominator is the steady rise in temperatures.  “Everything about global warming is changing how people grow their food, access their drinking water, and live in places that are increasingly being flooded, dried out, or blasted with heat waves.”
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A new state of the climate report from Carbon Brief.  It includes a variety of basic chart materials that are fundamental to the climate system plus a good bit of discussion about how everything works.  One thing they are missing (like everyone else) is a chart that shows the extraordinary difference in changes over time that reflect recent trends of average temperatures over totals of land and oceans when separated.  That difference has an effect on how we should interpret the current climate state once we understand what it means.  I have added a link to that chart below and you can find some comments on it in previous Climate Letters, e.g.  CL #1278, Oct. 12.
–Land and ocean surface temperatures from Hansen’s website, in pdf form:
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Canada is imposing a carbon tax with dividends in four of its provinces.  Every bit collected will be returned to citizens of those provinces, with a large majority getting back more than they pay in.  I believe it is the first of its type on such a large scale, and wish for its success.  “For years, CCL grassroots lobbyists have pressed both the U.S. and the Canadian governments to enact carbon fee and dividend to bring heat-trapping emissions under control,” said Mark Reynolds, Executive Director of Citizens’ Climate Lobby. “We’re thrilled that Canada is taking the lead with this policy, and we hope their decision will inspire the U.S. Congress to take similar action.”

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Climate Letter #1286

An important new study provides a surprising new reason for halting the rise in global warming and CO2 emissions.  While some places have too much nitrogen, and others are being fertilized, forests and other terrestrial plants are generally not getting enough nitrogen to grow properly. “Researchers have found that global changes, including warming temperatures and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, are causing a decrease in the availability of a key nutrient for terrestrial plants. This could affect the ability of forests to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and reduce the amount of nutrients available for the creatures that eat them.”  The study has 38 authors from institutions all over the world who have done or made reference to a vast amount of field work. Climate models will need to take these findings into account when projecting future CO2 levels.

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–A link to the Abstract and other information about the study:  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-018-0694-0

Extreme cases of flooding from storm runoff are increasing dramatically.  New research has obtained a detailed understanding of the mechanisms involved and more accurate data about resulting effects.  “Globally, almost one billion people now live in floodplains, raising their exposure to river flooding from extreme weather events and underscoring the urgency in understanding and predicting these events…..The team…also found that storm runoff has a stronger response than precipitation to human-induced changes…This suggests that projected responses of storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes are going to increase dramatically, posing large threats to the ecosystem, affecting community resilience and infrastructure systems.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-temperatures-human-storm-runoff.html
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An article from The Conversation about the effect of rising temperatures on human health.  The author is a mathematician who was co-author of a study on this subject published in 2017 which looked into statistical evidence of the effects of physical changes in an episode from the Boston area.  Because the dangers are very real she is an advocate of expanding this type of surveillance in a global way.  “So far heat waves are not treated like a state of emergency but more like a seasonal nuisance. We are beginning to see – and feel – the effects.”
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The huge need for energy efficiency is not being met (Axios).  According to a new report from the IEA, “Our study shows that the right efficiency policies could alone enable the world to achieve more than 40% of the emissions cuts needed to reach its climate goals without requiring new technology.”  Total energy demand around the globe was much too high in 2017 because not enough investment has focused on efficiency gains.  There is a need for more incentives, including those provided by enforced regulation.
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Hurricane Willa is the latest to demonstrate rapid intensification, the third one in a row.  “Hurricane Willa—which had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles-per-hour less than 48 hours prior—had quadrupled in intensity, gusting at 160 miles-per-hour.”  The main requirement, abnormally warm water water running abnormally deep, is becoming more common, making adequate preparations more difficult.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1285

Confirmation of studies claiming that climate change is currently a source of deadly conflicts.  This comes from the head of the International Red Cross, who sees regular evidence of an obvious connection.  “When I think about our engagement in sub-Saharan Africa, Somalia, in other places of the world, I see that climate change has already had a massive impact on population movement, on fertility of land. It’s moving the border between pastoralist and agriculturalist.”  Some of the violence is domestic and some crosses borders.

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Grim reactions to the recent report ( see CL #1281) about insect losses in the tropics.  From an expert who was not involved in the study, these findings are “a real wake-up call — a clarion call — that the phenomenon could be much, much bigger, and across many more ecosystems…..This is one of the most disturbing articles I have ever read.”  There are links to the original report and to a more thorough commentary in the Washington Post.  Massive insect loss is climbing toward the top of the list of most feared impacts of climate change in the immediate future because of their key role in every food chain, including that of humans.
–One more review, this from The Guardian, points out the distinction between massive insect losses in the temperate zones due to pesticides and other chemicals and losses of similar scale in certain tropical forests which can only be attributed to higher temperatures.
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The warm water ‘blob’ in the northeast Pacific Ocean that had such nasty effects on climate a few years ago has made a comeback.  This one is an effect of excessively high air temperatures that have stayed in place for a lengthy period of time in and around the Gulf of Alaska.  This post also contains a winter weather forecast for the US from NOAA.
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Maybe insurance companies will finally convince everyone that climate change is real.  Someone has to pay for all the damages, whether or not they were insured, and they are rapidly rising.  For example, “Estimated costs from Hurricane Florence, which struck the Carolinas in September, range as high as $170 billion, which would make Florence the costliest storm ever to hit the U.S……Recognizing this threat, many insurers are throwing out decades of outdated weather actuarial data and hiring teams of in-house climatologists, computer scientists and statisticians to redesign their risk models.”  Deniers need not apply for those jobs.
https://phys.org/news/2018-10-convince-americans-climate-real.html?
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In Alaska, climate change is happening now, and the pace is fast.  The effects, to be sure, are quite different from those we see or expect in the temperate and tropical zones, but are still decidedly troublesome.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1284

Alarming statistics related to the impact of tree loss in tropical rainforests (World Resources Institute).  This report needs to be clarified because the numbers represent not just CO2 emissions but “CO2 equivalent,” which adds in the warming effect of methane and other gases.  On that basis the tree loss of this type represents 8% of the global total, a close third in line behind the comparable emissions of two nations, the US and China.  Moreover, the annual rate has increased more than 50% in just the last five years, most of it since the Paris Agreement was signed.  This is a huge problem that is not being sufficiently addressed in international discussions.

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Mongabay has additional commentary about the report, including a map showing where losses of thistype are occurring in the central part of Africa, where Congo is by far the largest emitter.
–Also, just a reminder that the presidential election in Brazil on October 28 favors a candidate who has vowed to speed up the commercial development of the Amazon forest region.  There is no power of enforcement in sight that could stop these things, if that is what national leaders decide they want.  And there are some questions about the quality of moral leadership coming from a number of large nations elsewhere, who are not in position to complain.
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“The Hope at the Heart of the Apocalyptic Climate Change Report” (Foreign Policy journal).  Along with their latest dire predictions, the world’s leading climate scientists offered a new path forward—but will anyone take it?  “The IPCC is finally getting the message. Last week’s special report includes an exciting new scenario that—for the first time—does not rely on speculative technology. Developed by an international team of scientists, it projects that we can reduce emissions fast enough to keep under 1.5 degrees but only if we’re willing to fundamentally change the logic of our economy. Instead of growing industrial output at all costs, it proposes a simple alternative: that we start to consume less.”  It is a great argument, though not a new one, and if you do the math it is pretty daunting.  I am not sure ‘hope’ is the right word, maybe ‘long-overlooked remedy’ would be better.  It’s a good article.
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Along these same lines, we get a reminder from Fast Company, based on another report from WRI, that meat is one of things that humans have to stop consuming.  Not just stopping the upward projections, which are huge, but reversing current consumption to practically zero.  Plant-based options are rapidly becoming a viable reality, so quitting meat might be easier than anyone thinks.
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“The Case for Climate Pessimism” (New Republic).  This article presents arguments that it is better to face the future with courage rather than resorting to a kind of hope that is based on unwarranted optimism.  Kate Marvel, who is a climate scientist, has an unusually positive attitude for someone who is essentially pessimistic about any guarantee of a happy ending.  Genuine action is most likely to be undertaken by those who have the right kind of courage.
–For a more in-depth message from Kate, here is something she wrote last March, including a glimpse into the physics of climate change:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1283

Global CO2 emissions are expected to hit a record high this year.  This report from the head of the IEA is based on date from the first nine months.  Making reference to the targets set in Paris, “Therefore the chances of reaching such ambitious targets in my view, are becoming weaker and weaker every year, every month…..While renewables have been growing strongly, their growth isn’t large enough to reverse CO2 emissions trends.”  2017 also set a record high following three straight years when emissions were flat.

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How Republican lawmakers have responded to the IPCC report (The Guardian).  They have had to make some adjustments in their approach to denial since facts on the ground have not been going their way.  Even the ones that know better are stuck with having to follow the party line, as “trumpeted” by their leader, hoping the public is not going to pay attention.
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Greenland’s ice sheet has gained considerable mass on its surface this year because of heavy snowfall.  This story explains how the various calculations are made, and what the causes are like.  Not much can be said about losses of ice from the lower parts because of a temporary interruption of good data sources.
–A 6-minute video, well worth watching, features two familiar scientists giving explanations of the kind of exploration being done on the underside of Greenland’s glaciers and why it is so important, with great photography.
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A nasty insect is on the loose as an invasive species, threatening millions of trees (Yale e360).  This one is known to have attacked over 300 different species of trees in different prts of the world, including California.
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A major Norwegian oil producer shows what it takes to be an industry leader in helping give us a carbon-free future (Axios).  “Statoil’s goal, announced earlier this year, is to invest 15-20% of its capital into renewables and lower carbon technologies by 2030.  That still leaves the vast majority of the producer’s portfolio based on traditional oil and natural gas, and Statoil is going to keep exploring for new hydrocarbons to replace depleting fields.”  So what’s the hurry all about?
Book review:  “The Human Planet:  How We Created the Anthropocene,” by Simon Lewis and Mark A. Maslin.  This fairly lengthy review is quite interesting in its own right, showing the deep connections to our current climate dilemma.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1283