Climate Letter #1312

Posted on November 30, 2018 by Carl Campbell

2018 can nearly be confirmed as the fourth hottest year on record, topped only by the previous three (BBCNews).  The relative strength of the continuous cycling between El Nino and La Nina conditions is again an important factor, causing some weakness for both 2017 and 2018.  That should become a strengthening factor in 2019.  The whole concept of a “hiatus” has completely disappeared.  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46374141

This link as a great chart of the El Nino/La Nina cycle back to 1950.  It clearly shows the dominance of La Nina conditions between 1998 and 2015.  The coming El Nino will probably be either weak or moderate by all accounts, probably not strong enough for a new record hot year but conceivably quite close.    https://www.ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

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Scientists are saying the actual impacts of climate change are more extensive and worse than they had expected.  More than a dozen older researchers who were interviewed by AP say they were much to conservative in their forecasts, back in the 1990s, about the coming effects on daily lives, even when right about temperature increases.  A number of them are heard from in this post, with examples.  (The opening video is an older piece, previously reported in another letter, that is mostly about temperature sensitivity.)

https://climatecrocks.com/2018/11/29/weve-underestimated-climate-impacts/

A new study envisions the importance of preserving entire ecosystems over and above individual species.  “When you have species on the move because of environmental upheaval, or you force species together into communities in which they did not co-evolve, those systems are almost invariably less successful than systems where species have shared histories…..Today, we can’t tinker with ecosystems, have them fall apart functionally, and expect life to carry on and recover in a way that normally takes tens of thousands of years to happen. The fossil record shows this approach isn’t sustainable…..The ecological systems we have today are documented products of geological and evolutionary history–they’re not easily made nor easily recovered.”

 

Mongabay has a lengthy report on the many disadvantages of hydroelectric dams.  “Hydroelectric power accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s renewable energy supply, yet large dams have been widely criticized for their disappointing energy outputs, short lifespans, and negative impacts on local ecosystems and people. After proliferating in North America and Europe in the mid-20th Century, hydroelectric fell out of favor there in the 1970s and more dams are being removed than constructed nowadays…..But hydroelectric development didn’t stop, it moved location – thousands of dams have been built in developing nations since the 1970s, with many more planned…..Dams also exacerbate climate change by releasing methane from decomposing vegetation in flooded forests – a problem that is especially virulent in the tropics where many mega-dams were recently built, and continue being constructed.”   https://news.mongabay.com/2018/11/mega-dam-costs-outweigh-benefits-global-building-spree-should-end-experts/

Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1312

Climate Letter #1311

Posted on November 29, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A new way to determine Earth’s CO2 history has been developed.  This is very exciting because the method appears to be at least as credible as others that are commonly employed, and probably more so, and because it extends much farther back in time, to about 500 million years ago.  We know much more about climate conditions in the deep past than we do about the corresponding CO2 levels that may have been largely responsible, so now we can make the association with more confidence than ever.  We’ll have a better idea of what is in store for us (upon reaching equilibrium) once the current CO2 level reaches 450, then 500 and so on, and of course today’s 408 level when it reaches an equilibrium state down the road a ways, perhaps a hundred years from now.

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181128141822.htm
–This link has a figure containing the full CO2 history as determined by the work done so far.  Future work should provide a closer look at the details for specific periods of interest.
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New research into the way polar region climates are connected, with a focus on changes in the AMOC.  The study of rapid changes that took place in the past provides clues to the outcome of what is happening today.  In particular, “The researchers say that if the past is a guide for what the future may hold, the weakening of the AMOC likely will decrease the potency of Asian monsoons and billions of people depend on that rain for their livelihood. The changing wind patterns in the southern hemisphere also will lessen the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide, meaning more CO2 emissions will stay in the atmosphere, strengthening the greenhouse effect.”  The current AMOC weakening is largely attributed to oceanic cooling effects due to Greenland’s extensive meltwater production.
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The odds have risen that many regions will experience extreme heat and extreme dryness in the same time period.  “A new study from Stanford University suggests that the kind of hot, dry conditions that can shrink crop yields, destabilize food prices and lay the groundwork for devastating wildfires are increasingly striking multiple regions simultaneously as a result of a warming climate.”  Historically this has not been the usual pattern, but that has changed.  “For example, the odds that China and India—two of the world’s largest agricultural producers and the two most populous nations—both experience low precipitation and extremely warm temperatures in the same year have gone from less than 5 percent before 1980 to more than 15 percent today…..So, what used to be a rare occurrence can now be expected to occur with some regularity, and we have very strong evidence that global warming is the cause…..achieving the emissions reduction targets in the 200-nation pact would allow the world to dramatically reduce the likelihood of compounding hot, dry conditions hitting multiple croplands across the world.  There are still options for mitigating these changes.”  Is anybody listening?
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-regions-increasingly-hot-conditions.html
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What climate change is doing to Somaliland.  This is a real-life example of what can happen when high temperatures and drought combine, as in the story above.  “The impact has been catastrophic for the nation of 3.5m people, where livestock farming accounts for about 70 per cent of economic activity.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c8b475b2-ebf2-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0?
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Opportunities for successful development of ecofriendly bioplastics are said to exist.  The authors of this report from The Conversation make a good case for stepping up the research required for making a substantial transition from petroleum-based plastics a reality.  Among the many advantages, much less energy is required in the production process and finished products that are not biodegradable would still function as a means of sequestering carbon that was originally taken from the atmosphere.

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1311

Climate Letter #1310

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Carl Campbell
What would happen if temperatures actually rose by 5-6C in this century, as some are forecasting?  This new study, using thousands of complex computer models, paid particular attention to climate impacts on plants and animals in their wild state.  The research was basically interested in searching for domino-type effects, where losses of some species contribute to the losses of others, an effect found to be surprisingly elevated.  “The study also explored the worst possible scenario of temperature change due to global warming.  According to the simulations, 5-6°C of warming would be enough to wipe out most life on the virtual Earths the scientists created.”  From a general appraisal of the research, “our results are consistent with real-world patterns for which we have empirical evidence…..What is clear is that a warming Earth will put increasing pressure on the planet’s biodiversity, and co-extinctions will add to that impact.”

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The Little Ice Age could return to the Northern Hemisphere.  That possibility is suggested by a new a new study that has found convincing evidence that the overturning of Atlantic circulation (AMOC) has weakened over the last 1500 years, something also indicated by other theories and measurements of varying credibility.  The weakening occurs episodically, and one such event has been pictured as the cause of an extended cold spell between 1600 and 1850 that was most dramatically effective across Europe.  (Events like this can temporarily cool part of the Earth, but any such temperature effect can also be offset by other factors, like a rise of greenhouse gases.)
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Bushfires in Australia have caused thousands to evacuate as temperature records are broken.  “The Bureau of Meteorology declared a “catastrophic” fire danger—the highest possible risk rating—in some central areas, while firefighters battled to contain more than 130 blazes across the state.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-thousands-evacuated-australian-bushfires-rage.html
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The UN has issued an “Emissions Gap Report 2018” prior to the major conference in Poland that starts next week (BBC News).  It shows how far off track the trend is running, with the peak presently not expected until around 2030, and gives many of the reasons why this is so, emphasizing the high level of economic growth.  “The report also suggests that government tax plans could be hugely important in tackling emissions…..If all fossil fuel subsidies were phased out, global carbon emissions could be reduced by up to 10% by 2030. Setting the right carbon price is also essential. At $70 per tonne of CO2, emission reductions of up to 40% are possible in some countries.”  Those are things that can be done, if there is a will.
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An appraisal of more than a dozen proposals for removing carbon from the atmosphere (republished from Planet Earth online).  This is an excellent overview of a subject we will be hearing about much more often, briefly covering all of the bases in a realistic manner.  “Each CDR technology is feasible at some level, but has uncertainties about cost, technology, the speed of possible implementation, or environmental impacts. It’s clear that no single one provides the ultimate solution to climate change.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-carbon-atmosphere-climate-catastrophe.html
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An exciting new superconductor technology applicable to wind energy is ready for field testing in Europe.  “The switch means that it’s possible to build lighter, smaller wind turbines that are less dependent on expensive rare earth elements. This means that the price tag of turbines could fall and, in turn, cut energy costs.”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1310

Climate Letter #1309

Posted on November 27, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Odds now strongly favor the beginning of an El Nino event in December.  It would not be powerful and could peak as soon as February.  Such an occurrence would normally give an extra but small boost to the global temperature average and also to the total level of CO2 emissions.

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/27/climate-warming-el-nino-very-likely-in-2019-says-un-agency
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Clice Hamilton gives us an update of his views regarding the human response to climate change.  Hamilton is an Australian professor who authored a widely acclaimed book published early last year, “Defiant Earth: The Fate of Humans in the Anthropocene.”  I think his views are very accurate, very realistic, and not particularly reassuring.  Almost every sentence in this post can be held up and quoted.  Here is one idea that caught my eye:  “So the challenge is no longer how to use information to change people’s minds. The challenge is how to change a culture. No one knows how to do that.”
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A new study explains why the Arctic is turning brown, and what it means.  This story was written for The Conversation by the lead author of the study.  The damage being done to vegetation is substantial, caused by a variety of extreme weather events that are expected to continue.  As a result there is much less absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than expected, which would otherwise serve as a counter to gases released by thawing of permafrost.  Current climate models are not reflecting the level of imbalance that was found, making the current carbon budget “dangerously inadequate” due to the absence of an expected sink.
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-arctic-brown-weird-weather-climate.html
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Scientists are advancing their knowledge of how oceans collect and store CO2.  This is another area of concern for the carbon budget because the amount of natural uptake derived from human emissions is very large and that relationship could be subject to change.  This post reviews a new study considering the biogeochemical effects of seasonality and acidification on processes that are deeply involved.  The scientists believe there are trends now occurring, possibly negative, which need to be better measured and understood for the purpose of making reliable climate forecasts.
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Scientists can now explain how a global cooling trend was converted to a hothouse effect 59 million years ago.  The intensification of deep-water circulation within the Atlantic Ocean had a major effect by causing an expansion of warm surface waters.  There may be lessons applicable to current developments.  “The current rate of climate change by CO2 emissions from human activity by far surpasses the rate of warming during past greenhouse climates. Studying ocean circulation during the most recent greenhouse interval in the geologic past may provide clues as to how ocean circulation might develop in the future, and how heat will be distributed over the planet by ocean currents.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-atlantic-ocean-global-circulation-climatic.html
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A scientist and archaeologist combine to give us an overview of the plastics problem and where it is taking us.  Like climate change, it requires a solution of unfathomable scale.
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-plastic-planet-fabric-scientist-archaeologist.html?
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1309

Climate Letter #1308

Posted on November 26, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A summary of the new US government National Climate Assessment.  It has been gathering quite a bit of attention, partly because it runs contrary to actual Administration policies and the politicized claims that support them.

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https://climatecrocks.com/2018/11/24/new-us-climate-assessment-summarized/
–VOX has issued a more editorialized view of the report that contains a number of extra insights plus some interesting links and sidelights that are worth checking out.
https://www.vox.com/2018/11/24/18109883/climate-report-2018-national-assessment
–Also, keep in mind the fact that the writers of the report were careful to base their findings on a body of scientific evidence that is considered quite conservative by the community.  Many scientists would have used even stronger language in places.
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Bill  Gates is one person who fully accepts the realities behind climate change and wants to widen out the plans and programs needed for pulling it back.  “Gates is imploring people to realize that addressing climate change means changing the fundamental way our lives are run, which ultimately means the entire global economy.”  His personal activities and spending are mostly guided toward projects of an unconventional sort.  This story is based on an interview with Axios that was aired on HBO.
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Why it is so hard for the world to quit burning coal (New York Times).  Production and consumption of coal as a source of carbon emissions stubbornly refuses to decline, yet nothing is more fundamental to successful climate action.  This story focuses on events in Asia that are especially disturbing, and seemingly intractable.
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How the world’s highest glaciers are melting and receding, a photo essay from the Nepali Times.  “Visitors returning to the Everest region after many years will notice changes in the landscape: large lakes where there were none; glacial ice replaced by ponds, boulders and sand; the snowline moving up the mountains; and glaciers that have receded and shrunk.”
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What the climate change crisis is like below the ocean surfaces (Reuters).  Although the overall effects are different, the heat we are adding to the oceans disrupts life down there as much as life above the global surface is disrupted by the rise in air temperatures, all of it coming from the same source.  This post provides a series of sharp reviews of what is happening to marine life, with a focus on specific examples.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1308

Climate Letter #1307

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Carl Campbell
Across natural ecosystems around the globe plant foliage is holding less nitrogen.  That is the finding of a new study.  “According to the researchers, plants outside of agricultural settings now contain 9 percent less nitrogen than they did in 1980…..elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have accelerated plant photosynthesis, leading to the production of more vegetable matter even as the amount of nitrogen available to their roots remains constant.”  The Abstract of the study concludes with this sentence:  “These declines will limit future terrestrial carbon uptake and increase nutritional stress for herbivores.”  The loss of carbon uptake would imply a weakening of the sink that now absorbs about 25% of our current emissions growth.

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http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2018/11/the-scary-future-of-nature-with-less-nitrogen/
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Peatland, another important carbon sink, is suffering excessive degradation.  In this case the sink itself could be transformed into an extraordinary new source of carbon emissions if we do not take care to preserve it properly and global warming continues.  According to the author of this study, “Global peatlands cover only about 3 percent of global land area, but hold around 30 percent of the earth’s soil organic carbon……Peatlands act like a ‘terrestrial ocean’ because of their sequestering carbon, but will this large amount of peat carbon be released under a warmer climate, causing further warming?”  Just one small basin in the Peruvian Amazon that was studied could lose up to 500 million tons of carbon by the end of this century.  https://phys.org/news/2018-11-major-natural-carbon-source.html

“Blue carbon” ecosystems, based on shallow water rather than land, have great potential for capturing carbon from the atmosphere.  Today they are being lost at an alarming rate, for reasons that should not be difficult to bring under control.  When properly protected, or even replanted, this type of vegetation is capable of rapid and highly productive growth.  “Globally, blue carbon ecosystems are smaller in extent than terrestrial ecosystems, but they have the potential to sequester ten times more carbon per area unit than land systems, and are twice as effective at storing carbon in soil and biomass.”  Cohesive national policies need to be implemented.  (Climate Code Red)
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What are temperatures like inside the ice of high mountain glaciers?  A team of researchers wanted to find out, so they drilled a number of cores into the world’s highest glacier on Mount Everest.  The result “revealed a minimum ice temperature of only −3.3 °C, with even the coldest ice being a full 2 °C warmer than the mean annual air temperature…..’Warm’ ice is particularly vulnerable to climate change because even small increases in temperature can trigger melting…..the Khumbu Glacier’s vulnerability may have serious consequences for the lifespan and amount of meltwater runoff in the coming decades and it will be important to determine if other glaciers in the region have similar internal characteristics to Khumbu.”  Several billion people who live in Southeast Asia should be interested.  https://phys.org/news/2018-11-ice-world-highest-glacier.html?
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Why do air temperatures in the Arctic warm up so much more than the global mean?  This is a question that has been answered through many different hypotheses, yet never fully resolved, starting from the assumption  that increased greenhouse gas cover is about the same everywhere.  Now a research group using complex computer models has come up with a new answer, giving much reduced importance to things like incoming heat transport from the tropics and even the local effect of reduced albedo because of lessened ice or snow cover.  Rather, they have found that the vertical air column above the Arctic has higher stability than that over lower latitudes, making it more difficult for any longwave energy released from the surface to move rapidly to the top of the atmosphere, as tropical “thermals” regularly do, where it can then be released to space.  That would effectively magnify the greenhouse effect in the Arctic by sort of physically compressing it.  Interesting.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1307

Climate Letter #1306

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Carl Campbell
There is a new study about the effect of melting ice on global climate, and it is getting much attention.  This is a subject that James Hansen’s group treated in a more dramatic and quite controversial way in 2015, known as “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms, (etc),” which can easily be accessed and read in full with a search.  The new treatment is more limited, being applied only to Antarctic melting, and considerably tamed down, but is still controversial.  Rather oddly, it carries a list of 87 reference works, none of which have any mention of work from Hansen.  This review of the new study by Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief provides first rate coverage.  Climate activists do not like this kind of study because of the strong cooling effect it produces, temporarily of course, without any need for help from humans such as cutting back on their carbon emissions.  The effect can be expected whenever vast amounts of ice break off from unstable glaciers, tumble into the oceans and start melting.  That kind of action, using the rapid release of cooling power that has been stored up in the ice sheets for perhaps millions of years, is sure to cool the surface of the oceans where it is collected, maybe a lot, for an extended period of time.  As noted in the study (and even more so by Hansen) other kinds of weather changes of an unexpected type also get involved.

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Glacial ice from mountains in western China is melting at an accelerated rate, and fast.  From Greenpeace, “In just the last few months, thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes due to threats of flooding.”  There are also concerns about the eventual disappearance of these glaciers, which supply water to 1.8 billion people, due to rapidly rising air temperatures.
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A comprehensive new study assesses the way climate hazards are accumulating as they happen more frequently.  “An analysis of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers reveals 467 ways in which human health, food, water, economy, infrastructure, and security have been impacted by multiple climatic changes including: warming, drought, heatwaves, wildfires, precipitation, floods, storms, sea level rise and changes in land cover and ocean chemistry…..This research reveals that society faces a much larger threat from climate change than previous studies have suggested.”  From the lead author, “The collision of cumulative climate hazards is not something on the horizon, it is already here.”  From a co-author,  “The evidence of climate change impacting humanity is abundant, loud and clear….the outstanding question is—how many wake-up calls will it take to wake up?”
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-greenhouse-gasses-triggering.html
–Tim Radford also has a good review of this important paper:
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Climate change and loss of biodiversity are closely intertwined, but only one gets all the attention (The Guardian).  A UN conference dealing with the latter is now in session, with almost no media coverage, while a number of nations are not even attending.  Previous agreements have been ineffectual, and current statistics are indeed grim.  “We haven’t succeeded in getting across how important biodiversity is. It’s not just about a few endangered species. It is absolutely clear that what is happening to our ecosystems has an impact on humanity.”
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A report from MIT explains the stunning 99% decline in the cost of solar power over the last four decades.  The role of government assistance gets well-deserved credit.  The report could have said more about comparisons between the assistance given to solar power and that dedicated to advancing nuclear fusion, which I suspect has heavily favored the latter, with a complete contrast in outcome.  Of extra interest concerning the future of solar technology, “While the study focused on past performance, the factors it identified suggest that ‘it does look like there are opportunities for further cost improvements with this technology.'”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1306

Climate Letter #1305

Posted on November 19, 2018 by Carl Campbell
An introduction to Motherboard—

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Every so often I stumble into a website of obviously high quality that I should have been aware of long ago but for some reason missed the boat.  That is the case with Motherboard.  Now, having found this one example of their work, shown below, that was published a month ago, I have added their “Climate Change” category link to my regular daily list.  You may want to take a look at that link, https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/topic/climate-change to see the kind of things they have been covering in 87 stories so far.  It’s quite good.
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This story, written by British author Nafeez Ahmed, got my attention because it brought forth a number of ideas, plus links to material, that have been on my mind for some time, as indicated by the title, “The UN’s Devastating Climate Change Report Was Too Optimistic.”  That is something many climate scientists have been saying ever since the first IPCC report was published (in 1990) and those that followed.  The IPCC is by intention a very conservative body, taking a highly cautious approach to matters of uncertainty.  The science behind climate change, meanwhile, by its very nature deals with inescapable uncertainties at all levels.  It tries to reconstruct a past from an assortment of the strangest of clues, and it tries to predict the future when all that can be seen is a hazy outline.  Even the present realities are hard to describe because there are so many complicating forces that interact and keep changing.  Every bit of new research, no matter how convincing, easily becomes subject to future adjustments and cannot just be accepted at once.
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Once the IPCC has made its case other UN bodies take over and set up procedures for translating the findings into recommendations for policy makers at the highest levels of government, doing so in a way that nearly all must agree to because there is no alternative to full cooperation.  That has led to numerous complaints that the positions taken by the IPCC are watered down still more, enough to create ways of making them acceptable to all different kinds of national leaders, who still retain further options for holding back needed actions that are unpopular.  That entire picture is in plain sight, and Dr. Ahmed does not hesitate to explain how it falls short, and the radical nature of the transformation that would be required to change it.
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Extra comment:  My own “discovery,” which was made a few months ago, that land surface temperatures have been rising considerably faster than ocean surfaces, is something that all climate scientists know about but have not taken the time to think much about.  This is an oversight that needs to be corrected, because if my conclusions are wrong the explanation that shows why they are wrong would necessarily be meaningful, and perhaps unusual.  If they are right they point to stark evidence, the kind that stares you in the face, that the IPCC conclusions and everything that has followed from them are far too conservative.  In fact, we have already shot past the 1.5C target on land while the oceans have lagged far behind, for reasons not hard to explain.  The oceans will catch up, inevitably, due to natural processes seeking equilibrium, but it will take time.  Land itself will for some time surely continue to grow warmer at a pace much faster than the average rate for the globe, which is 70% weighted in favor of oceans.  (Go to http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/ and click on “with 1889-1920 base period” below the top figure.)
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There is one more website worthy of study, which takes some time and effort to fully appreciate the value of.  Here it is:  https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-every-part-of-the-world-has-warmed-and-could-continue-to-warm  It will give you the temperature history of 64,000 parcels of the Earth’s surface from the late 19th century to the average of the last ten years, an amazing amount of information.  I recently took the time to check records on bits of all the major land masses and the same for all the oceans, to get a clearer picture.  One clear finding is that land surfaces in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed considerably more than those in the Southern.  That raises questions about whether there is some special kind of inertia holding up “progress” in the South, but absent in the North.  Ice-covered Antarctica is counted as land but (from sparse records) shows only a few signs of any warming at all
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1305

Climate Letter #1304

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A new monthly update of global temperatures from James Hansen.  It features a remarkable increase for the month of October versus 2017, similar to the gain in October 2015 over 2014, which was then the early signature of a major El Nino just emerging and topping out in the early months of 2016.  Hansen sees a new El Nino coming but is not ready to predict a new record high in 2019 in part because the sun’s radiance is lower than it was during the last event.

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https://mailchi.mp/f2ef437993a5/october-2018-global-temperature-update?e=e368e4e899
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How the global increase in wildfire intensity affects the growth of CO2 emissions (BBC).  That is a question that scientists are trying to find answers to, knowing that all they can hope for are estimates that are not wildly inaccurate.  This article has an interesting summary of the studies making that attempt.  Natural and unnatural causes, or those under the influence of human activity must in all cases be separated. The main conclusion is that global warming, which can now be completely attributed to humans, is causing an increase in the intensity of wildfires, the effect of which causes a significant boost in CO2 emissions.  “Although estimates vary and still carry uncertainties, some experts say wildfires account for up to 20% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.  They are estimated to increase by a few percent to roughly 30% by the end of this century depending on how the climate changes.”  Those figures basically represent an uncontrollable handicap that, along with the thawing out of permafrost carbon, is eating a hole in whatever remains of the carbon budget.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46212844
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The problem of sargassum seaweed deposited on Caribbean beaches is not going away (The Guardian).  “At sea, sargassum is an essential habitat for some marine life, but when it reaches land it rots, sucking up oxygen from the water and emitting hydrogen sulphide gas, which smells like rotten eggs.”  It has been making appearances every year since 2011 and this year has been the worst of all.  Global warming is probably a factor behind observed changes in the way the stuff moves around on the ocean surface.
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How ‘natural climate solutions’ can help the US reduce carbon emissions.  A study involving 38 researchers has made a serious attempt to define the maximum potential, by examining and comparing 21 different categories of activity.  The results were quite frankly disappointing with respect to the magnitude of what can be accomplished, and also the high cost in terms of providing necessary financial incentives.  The study does well to highlight the extraordinary importance (including the high cost) of forest management, protection and reforestation.  Whether or not the estimates are correct, these are all things that need to be done, and somehow accomplished, right along with the elimination of fossil fuels.
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A study has been made assessing the way all different nations have set up their climate policies relative to meeting the combined requirements for global temperature targets.  They are all displayed on one map with color coding to show comparisons.  “This paper provides a means for countries to check how their contribution might be perceived by other countries and thus judge whether they are perceived as a climate leader or laggard…..Civil society, experts and decision-makers can use this to hold their governments accountable….”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1304

Climate Letter #1303

Posted on November 15, 2018 by Carl Campbell
A new study finds reasons for forecasting increases in hurricane intensity and rainfall production.  The research found that the most destructive storms of the past were bolstered by higher temperatures in the air and on the sea surfaces where they occurred.  As a consequence, when looking ahead, if “the world warms by 3C to 4C this century then hurricane rainfall could increase by a third, while wind speeds would be boosted by as much as 25 knots…..Hurricanes, or cyclones as they are known in the Pacific region, draw their strength from warmth in the upper layers of the ocean, while their rainfall is influenced by the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.”  Both of these regularly increase with climate change.

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/14/climate-change-hurricanes-study-global-warming
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Seagrass is incredibly productive at storing carbon, and is rapidly being lost (Popular Science).  The losses are mostly due to human carelessness, and could be corrected.  When they vanish there are significant losses of CO2 that end up in the atmosphere.
https://www.popsci.com/oceans-losing-seagrass-carbon-sink
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Reducing carbon emissions based on economics alone is not good enough (Scientific American).  That is basically the extent of what current policies rely upon.  Acceptance is high because there are no sacrifices involved and there are savings to celebrate.  Economic growth can go on at the same rate as before, and the inevitable losers are not hard to take care of.  That would all have to change if any sort of realistic climate goals were to to be met.  According to a new IEA report fossil fuel demand has been slowed but will continue to rise in the face of the strength of overall global energy demand.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewable-energy-is-surging-but-not-fast-enough-to-stop-warming/
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Elizabeth Kolbert interviews a top-level spokesman for negative emissions technologies (Yale e360).  This is a fairly complete overview except there were no questions asked about sources of funding to do the work.  There are prospects for the cost of direct air capture of CO2 to drop below $100 a ton in a decade or so, which will help.  One bright spot is that technologies for safely storing CO2 once it has been captured have advanced to a point where this is no longer seen as an obstacle no matter the required amount.  (Elsewhere, people are known to be working on ways to make use of large quantities of CO2 as a valuable raw material, which was not mentioned.)
https://e360.yale.edu/features/negative-emissions-is-it-feasible-to-remove-co2-from-the-air
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A large impact crater has been discovered along the northwest margin of the Greenland Ice sheet.  This is very exciting news for anyone interested in climate history since evidence, while still uncertain, suggests the event could have occurred as recently as 12,000 years ago.  That could explain the origin of the Younger Dryas episode that has left records completely baffling to scientists—there is no shortage of theories that it may have been caused by just such an impact.  Stand by for more developments as this story unfolds.
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-huge-crater-greenland-impact-northern.html
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Democratic politicians are being urged to seize the initiative on climate action (The Guardian).  A former campaign aide has tweeted, “Entire towns are burning to nothing in California. People are being incinerated alive in their cars attempting to flee. But a majority of Democrats still won’t reject fossil fuel money, and no one has put forward a climate plan that is remotely commensurate with the IPCC findings.”  There have been some rumblings that this could change.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1303