Climate Letter #1322

The inspiring story of a man who is teaching us how to restore forests—really!  “Over more than 30 years in west Africa, Tony Rinaudo has regenerated more than 6m hectares…..His farmer-managed natural regeneration technique is responsible for 240m trees regrowing across that parched continent…..There are 2bn hectares of degraded land in the world, he argues, and much of that land can be restored to help pull carbon from the atmosphere…..We can do this very cheaply, we can do this very quickly, and we can do this at scale.”  Right now he is busy meeting with delegates at the climate conference in Poland, and should get some attention.

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The other half the battle, the goal of which is zero-deforestation, is still moving in the wrong direction (Mongabay, by Hans Nicholas Jong).  The author of this story brings everything up to date and puts its importance in proper perspective.  “With such a powerful climate tool at their disposal, tropical countries play a critical role in determining whether humanity can limit global warming to 1.5 degrees or not…..And meeting the 2030 target will require transformational change in land use policies globally, as well as a change in agriculture practices and diets. Doing so can sequester 22 gigatons of CO2 per year, representing 40 percent of current global emissions.”  This requires nothing more than acts of will, which need the full support of everyone alive.
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The tree solution is still being sabotaged by too many wildfires (Politico).  “The hot and dry conditions induced by climate change result in more severe fires and a higher frequency of small fires growing to become uncontrollable…..This summer’s infernos are likely to be repeated as the world continues to get warmer.”  Wildfires belong on the short list of major “positive” feedbacks, the kind that amplify the warming effects of climate change.
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A comprehensive new study shows how evidence of the dangers from greenhouse gas emissions, as predicted by the EPA in 2009 for the Clean Air Act, is more compelling than ever.  Moreover, the range of negative impacts has been expanded beyond those originally cited.  “Climate change is a problem facing us today, not just an issue for the future…..The finding could strengthen challenges to proposed rollbacks of emissions standards and carbon emissions regulations in the United States.”   https://news.virginia.edu/content/study-evidence-climate-change-more-compelling-ever
–The paper is presented in a very readable form, available in full at this link.  It includes a listing of 281 reference studies that are relevant, many of which also have open access.
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The extreme instances of increased heat that go with climate change have material health consequences (Yale Climate Connections).  Keep in mind the fact that average heat increases in many regions on the various continents run well above the averages used to designate the global targets, which mainly are tied to oceanic measurements.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1321

A new analysis of El Nino events points toward more occurrences of the strong type (Nature).  From this study we can learn quite a bit about the two different types of both El Nino and La Nina events, based largely on where they are centered. and how they develop.  What is new from this study is that under global warming conditions the requirements needed for a strong type of El Nino are enhanced in ways not captured by current models.  This type, which includes the one most recently experienced, could return more frequently and stronger in the event of further warming.

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A new report stresses the importance of making more efficient use of Earth’s limited amount of agricultural land.  The contribution of current inefficient usage to rising CO2 levels is considerably greater than represented in current data, which raises its importance relative to that of burning fossil fuels.  There are plentiful opportunities for reversing that situation, which focus mainly on making changes in what we consume and on promoting more efficient methods of production.  From the report’s conclusion, “We find that these choices can have much greater implications for the climate than previously understood because standard methods for evaluating the effects of land use on greenhouse gas emissions systematically underestimate the opportunity of land to store carbon if it is not used for agriculture.”
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A systematic study is finding significant records being set showing extremes for both high and low rainfall events.  Also, the persistence of occurrences for each of these types of event tends to be regionally divided.  Both kinds of extremes are fully associated with the underlying trend of global temperature increases over the past hundred years, excluding natural variability as the cause.  The study was based on analysis of historical data gathered from roughly 50,000 weather stations worldwide.
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Farmers in the midwest are frustrated by difficulties caused by climate change (The Guardian).  The growing season has lengthened, making it possible to get higher yields, but a rising number of extreme events must be dealt with, often in a costly way.  Actually achieving the higher yields is thus increasingly difficult.
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A progress report from the international climate conference in Poland.  There have been some bright spots but universal agreement is lacking.  “The talks have centred on devising a rulebook for implementing the 2015 Paris agreement and raising countries’ level of ambition to counter climate change, but progress has been slow on several key issues and divisions have emerged between four fossil fuel powers – the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait – and the rest of the world.”  Many comments refer to the growing sense of urgency among those who are calling for action.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1320

A new Arctic Report Card from NOAA has been presented, with information more disturbing than ever.  NOAA has packed its story into a 4-minute video which is available at this link and very worth watching.  There are written summaries and comments from both the New York Times and Inside Climate News that follow.  The research was provided by 81 scientists in 12 countries.

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–Separately, Dr. Joe Romm has special comments to make about the rapid disappearance of the thickest sea ice, with a charted comparison that should not be missed:
–Another 4-minute video, this one from Deutsch Welle that is a year old, has terrific footage of scenes around Svalbard plus fine commentary.  This entire Arctic story represents the meaning of permanent, full-blown “climate change” in its most extreme form, here and now.  There is no going back, and more of such changes are yet to come.
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Reasons for the staggering loss of caribou (or reindeer) from Arctic plains (BBC News).  Total numbers have dropped by more than half in two decades, or more than 90% for some herds.  All of the reasons are related to various effects due to higher temperatures.
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A new annual report from the American Meteorological Society compiles explanations of 18 extreme weather events from around the world that occurred in 2017, showing why their strength and likelihood were typically affected by human-caused climate change.  “A warming Earth is continuing to send us new and more extreme weather events every year…..Our civilization is increasingly out of sync with our changing climate.”
–This site opens to the study, showing the chapter headings for the 18 events, each of which can be downloaded:
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Researchers find new reasons for concern over greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost.  “We call it the sleeping giant of the global carbon cycle…..It’s not really accounted for in climate models.”  For one thing, they have learned that subsea permafrost is thawing far more completely than that on land.  They have also found that waters released from thawed permafrost on land, upon reaching the sea, make a significant contribution to Arctic Ocean acidification.
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-arctic-permafrost-giant-world-carbon.html
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24 reasons for why people have trouble connecting to the reality of climate change.  These “cognitive biases” were selected for a poster from a list of more than 180 that might be applicable to every kind of experience.  Not a bad idea for something to have around!
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1320

Climate Letter #1319

New information about significant melting activity in glaciers of East Antarctica.  The fast-flowing Totten Glacier was already well-studied.  Now, according to NASA, there are four more identifiedin hand  in the same coastal region that are stirring.  “If this trend continues, it has consequences for future sea levels.  There is enough ice in the drainage basins in this sector of Antarctica to raise the height of the global oceans by 28m – if it were all to melt out…..Once again the melting culprit is likely to be warm water that is being pulled up from the deep by shifting sea-ice and wind patterns in the region.”  That should still be treated as a consequence of today’s global warming, the bulk of which is stored at depth in the oceans, where it has unlimited freedom to circulate.

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A bit of welcome news about the movement of high glaciers in the Himalayan region.  A major revelation from satellite studies shows that their downward velocity decreases when they get thinner from melting or any other reason.  This slowdown keeps them from reaching lower elevations where the rate of melting would speed up, creating an advantage both for the populations below and their impact on sea level rise.
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Very high risk of infrastructure damage by 2050 from thawing of permafrost.  According to this study, about 70% of residential, commercial and industrial infrastructure in the Arctic region faces severe damage from ground degradation over the next thirty years, with little hope for avoidance.  About 3.6 million people now living on the permafrost will be affected and any plans for new development greatly limited.
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Climate Action Tracker has an update on current national pledges and policies.  This research consortium keeps close track of what all respondents to the Paris Accord are actually doing to meet the targets.  The sum of all pledges that have been made, if adhered to, would hold the warming increase to 3.0 degrees.  Actual policies that are in place and being followed would result in a 3.3 degree warming, which at least is 0.1 better than a year ago.  Most countries have been moving in the right direction since 2015.  Some, “including the United States, Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates have made either no progress or taken backward steps.”
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A new study draws broad pictures of where climate change may ultimately be taking us, and how fast.  The research in hand is all up to date but the conclusions are not particularly new.  The main point is that humans, over just 200 years, really do have the capability to raise the CO2 level high enough to cause a return to climate conditions that existed 50 million years ago, which seems absurd.  However, everything we can see in this review is couched in RCP language, which I think is confusing, as opposed to CO2 language, and the study itself is not available for reading.  Also, bear in mind that humans are soon going to get alarmed about fossil fuels, based on changes we are seeing right now, and will begin pushing much harder for conversion to alternative energy over the next decade.  It will still be difficult to prevent eventual warming of 3C (from pre-industrial) when equilibrium is reached, but holding the increase below 4C is obtainable if we can manage to keep the CO2 level well below 550.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1318

A revealing breakdown of global fossil fuel emission trends (The Daily Galaxy).  Key facts are displayed here in a most interesting manner.  Note how India plus ROW, which together have almost half of the world’s emissions, are at the low end of per capita usage and also currently showing the strongest and steadiest growth trends of total usage.  A lot of things to ponder about.

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It’s possible that our wild and stormy weather in North America is here to stay.  This article from Skeptical Science talks about the role played by the weakening of the jet stream as prompted by Arctic warming.  There are also some good comments and extra links at the end.  One might further mention the emerging fact that warmer air is producing massive increases in precipitation that aggravates exposure to the jumbled air movement patterns.
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Blistering heat in northeastern Australia is drying out lush rainforests, leaving them vulnerable to attacks from bush fires (The Guardian).  Cyclone damage is also part of the story taking place in a world heritage area.  The problem is compounded by the potential for future mudslides, as we have seen in California.  “High-intensity fire tends to create a layer within the soil that is hydrophobic and therefore water repellent causing mass soil erosion.”
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A new study foresees reasons for a possible acceleration in the rate of global warming.  Aside from the failure to curb emissions there are two unusual factors coming into sight.  One is the likely reduction of heavy air pollution that has had the effect of blocking sunlight and the other would be the result of changes in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans that create enlarged and long-lasting areas of warmed surface water.
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A growing body of evidence shows that rising CO2 makes most foods more bulky but less nutritious (Scientific American).  People who eat them can still become overweight but don’t get a full complement of vitamins and minerals.  “Extra carbon dioxide acts like empty calories or “junk food” for the plants, which gorge themselves on it to grow bigger and faster, consequently getting larger but less nutrient-packed.”  The effects are felt throughout the animal kingdom, up and down the food chain.
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The carbon tax approach to emissions reduction is apparently running out of steam (Politico).  In one case after another, getting public support for the idea has proven to be exceedingly difficult.  “…..even the most liberal Democratic candidates this year gave carbon taxes scant if any mention in their climate platforms, focusing instead on proposals like a phaseout of fossil fuels and massive investments in wind and solar power.”  This is most unfortunate, because no other tool would be anywhere near as effective in immediately reducing demand for fossil fuels by everyone who uses them, which is now a vitally urgent need.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1318

Climate Letter #1317

The worst drought in memory is ravaging western Afghanistan.  More than 250,000 people have been forced to leave their homes.  At least three million across the country face famine, because of drought, if they do not receive help.  Afghanistan is ranked by the UN as one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

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Agriculture in the Nile Delta is threatened by a combination of reduced supplies of fresh water, sea level rise and soil salinization.  River flow is shrinking because of drought, along with certain other activities in upstream regions that are harmful.  A race is on to find or improve alternative watering systems.
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Meanwhile, the Sahel region of Africa may be in line for recovery from drought.  Some interesting reasons for this have been uncovered by the authors of a new study, who attribute part of the blame for past dryness to air pollution coming from the north.  “The subsequent reduction in aerosol emissions around the North Atlantic that resulted from environmental legislation to curb acid rain, occurring as global tropical warming continued unabated, is consistent with the current partial recovery and with projections of future wetting.”  Warming of temperatures by itself is expected to strengthen monsoon rains in this region.
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New research helps to explain the conditions causing Earth’s greatest extinction (The Guardian).  The main focus is on what happened to life in the oceans, where up to 96% of all marine species perished, essentially by suffocating, as supplies of oxygen were disappearing because of an extraordinary warming event.  Present-day climate change is viewed as closely resembling the early stages of that event.
–A somewhat more detailed review of this interesting study can be found at the Science Daily website:
–The study itself has limited access, but its link offers an unusually expanded Abstract that is worth reading, ending with a conclusion that “These results highlight the future extinction risk arising from a depletion of the ocean’s aerobic capacity that is already under way.”
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The most effective single way to offset carbon emissions by removing CO2 from the air.  Tim Radford reviews a new study that reconfirms an old idea, about a policy program that is guaranteed to work, totally risk-free, relatively inexpensive, and has numerous other benefits.
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A description of 12 books about climate change, including three novels, published in 2018 (Yale Climate Connections).
Carl

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Climate Letter #1316

Carbon Brief provides a thorough analysis of carbon emissions in 2018.  It starts by showing this to be a record high year and growing at the fastest rate in seven years, with China leading the parade.  There are many more details, including some updated estimates for land and ocean sinks which together collected and stored away 57% of the amount of CO2 emitted—which does us a big favor that we can only hope will continue.  The main takeaway from the report is that “it is becoming crystal clear the world is so far failing in its duty to steer onto a course consistent with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement in 2015.”

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A thorough new study has been completed of the way Greenland’s ice sheet has been melting (Inside Climate News).  The main point is that no change in the flat trend of indicators could be found between 1650 and the late 1990s, after which melting took off in a hockey-stick pattern, or like turning on a switch.  According to a co-author of the study, “Once the ice sheets get kicked into motion, they just keep going. This is a wake-up call that shows how fast Greenland is changing…..We think there’s a tipping point around 1.5 Celsius of [global] warming to 2 degrees Celsius of warming that would commit the ice sheet to melting for centuries or millennia, based on paleoclimate records.”
–The full study does not have open access, but you can open this link to it and look at the set of Figures, which clearly tell the basic story:
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Xcel Energy, a big electric utility, has committed to becoming carbon-free by 2050 (Vox).  It is the first major US utility to make such a move, but won’t be the last because there are plenty of incentives in place for doing so, as explained very well by David Roberts.
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MIT engineers have designed a new renewable energy storage system for electric utilities.  It would operate on the same principal as molten salt storage does currently, but could tolerate much higher temperatures by employing white-hot molten silicon.  “The researchers estimate that such a system would be vastly more affordable than lithium-ion batteries, which have been proposed as a viable, though expensive, method to store renewable energy. They also estimate that the system would cost about half as much as pumped hydroelectric storage—the cheapest form of grid-scale energy storage to date.”  There are engineering challenges, but none that appear to be out of reach for solutions.
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Another research group, located in Australia, has completed the development of a “next generation” type of solar cell.  A China-based manufacturer of advanced solar cell machinery has agreed to maximize the processes required for low-cost mass production, allowing finished products to be on the market as early as 2020.  The cells are aiming for a conversion efficiency of better than 27% of incoming sunlight.  The developers have set goal of bringing the cost of generating electricity down to just one cent per kWh.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1315

Spotlight on Indonesia and its carbon emissions (Vox).  Indonesia has the fourth largest population on the globe, behind China, India and the US, at 268 million, growing just a bit more than 1% per year.  It is only the fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and that is because its economy is not fully developed.  Of special interest, most of its emissions are derived from land usage, where it ranks first in the world.  Meanwhile, as it plays catch-up in economic development its rapid growth in energy demand is to a large degree being satisfied by burning coal.  The full story will leave you with a realization of the importance of how all this unfolds.  “Indonesia can’t solve climate change on its own. But the world can’t stop climate change without Indonesia.”

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“China is both the best and worst hope for clean energy” (Wired).  The world’s biggest carbon polluter is in the awkward position of having a leadership role in the world’s efforts to attack climate change.  It has plenty of potential to be helpful, but actual intentions are something of a mystery.  This story has laid out all of the relevant facts and some informed opinions.  The conclusion is similar to that in the above story, “We’re all gonna fry if they don’t do something.”
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The EU is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China and the US.  One week ago “the European Commission adopted a long-term strategy for achieving a prosperous, modern and climate-neutral economy by 2050.”  The WRI points out four reasons for why this net-zero emissions pan could be a game-changer that other countries could benefit from by emulating.  One point talks about how health benefits alone outweigh the costs involved in making the transformation.  (For more on that see the following story.)
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The prestigious journal Lancet has issued a new study covering the unacceptably high risk of climate change on human health, reviewed by Tim Radford.  The latest annual report, which has more than 70 authors, pays particular attention to the projected rise in heat waves, noting that “Present-day changes in heat waves and labour capacity provide early warning of the compounded and overwhelming impact on public health that is expected if temperatures continue to rise.”
–The full text of the report is obtainable at no charge through this site:
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Flooding and persistent rainfall associated with climate change accelerates mold production that is both costly and adverse to health (Scientific American).  This article has the whole story, including some tips on what to do about it.
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Blocking sunlight by means of geoengineering is likely to be tested.  The preferred medium for the test will be calcium carbonate, not a sulfate.  No one likes the idea, but there is some logic involved:  “But if the world continues on its current emissions path, we might have to choose, in 2030 or 2040 or 2050, between the (quite bad) option of geoengineering and the (also quite bad) option of enduring and adapting to the effects of large-scale global warming. And the Harvard experiment could help us understand which of those two bad options would be worse.”  Sigh.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1315

Climate Letter #1314

A new theory explains the recent weird behavior of Antarctic sea ice.  Prior to 2016 its maximum extent was steadily growing, exactly the reverse of the sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean, a matter that was widely observed and advertised by those who deny climate change.  Then in 2016 there was a dramatic crash in the Antarctic maximum, completely breaking the trend.  It can all be seen on a chart in this post from Carbon Brief, plus the way natural processes can account for the behavior, as explained.  The researchers make a good point, but do not talk about what might happen if vast amounts of glacial meltwater formation begins a new phase of cooling and freshening the surface waters, as predicted by other theories.

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A comprehensive evaluation of how the carbon cycle has performed in North America over the past decade.  There are nine principal findings, all briefly summarized, each of them being interesting in some way.  One particular finding, (#8), has special interest because it passes judgment on the highly controversial outlook for future emissions caused by the melting of permafrost, in this way:  “Frozen soil in the Arctic is melting and could release 5%–15% of its carbon stores by the end of this century.”  The translation into total tonnage is not stated, but could be quite meaningful in terms of a climate feedback amplifier.
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An interview with Al Gore, conducted by David Wallace-Wells (New York Intelligencer).  This is interesting because Gore has a pretty good handle on the problems being caused by climate change while Wallace-Wells is noted for the attention he has previously given to some of the more ardent doomsayers.  Gore is more of a hopeful type, and here he is pressed into giving reasons for his hopefulness, which I thought were not overly convincing.  For example, “Will there be a breakthrough in carbon capture, pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere? I certainly hope so. By the way, the IPCC projections, not for the 50 percent goal but for the goal later in the century, they tell us we have to do that. Whether it’s through the so-called BECCS Program or in some other way, we probably will have to do that.  That’s a daunting challenge for sure, but it’s possible. It’s possible.”
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A new study reviews all the pressures that stand in the way of protecting tropical forests.  They basically evolve from the widespread public interest in growth and development, aggravated by interwoven levels of corruption that is poorly controlled.
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Bushfires in Queensland, Australia are wreaking incredible havoc.  “The word unprecedented has been used repeatedly to describe Queensland’s weather this past week. Centuries-old heat records were broken in north Queensland, most remarkably in Cairns, where the hottest November temperature had been a 37.2C day in 1900. On Monday last week, Cairns was recorded at 42.6C. The following four days were all hotter than the previous record.”  Conditions are drier than normal as well as warmer.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1314

Climate Letter #1313

A prize-winning author gives us his latest views on the battle against climate change.  Mark Lynas was the author of “Six Degrees: Our future on a hotter planet,” published in 2008 and used as the basis of a TV documentary that was widely watched.  He is a keen observer who always tells his story with great clarity.

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Along these same lines, The Guardian has collected a number of expert views of a planet in big trouble, for consideration at the international climate conference now getting underway in Poland.  “As recent reports have made clear, the world may no longer be hovering at the edge of destruction but has probably staggered beyond a crucial point of no return.”  Many examples are provided.
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A new poll shows changes in the way Americans perceive climate change.  A majority of Republicans now at least agree that it is happening, and many more Democrats see it as a “very serious” matter, but there is still much lack of understanding about the cause.
–Opinion:  It should not take much in the way of science education to acquire a full grasp of the main cause of the climate change problem.  School kids are badly in need of access to that education and adults seem poorly motivated to do so on their own.  The education required to see why the problem is “very serious” is certainly more complicated, but not out of reach for any person of normal intelligence who is willing to make the effort.
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The problems surrounding the Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie, are highlighted in the new National Climate Assessment.  “It foresees more severe storms, more lake-effect snow and rain, expansion of invasive species that threaten local wildlife, larger “dead zones” in Lake Erie, and worsening of the algal blooms that can close beaches and threaten drinking water….. the impacts of climate change already are, and will continue to be, deep and widespread in our region.”  Extreme rain events of increasing frequency are singled out for their heavy damage.
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An assortment of climate impacts that get less attention than the more prominent ones (AP).  Some of these are of the very serious kind.
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The CO2 emissions released by California’s wildfires this year have been calculated, 68 million tons.  A substantial part of that can be attributed to the drying effects of climate change, which happened as well in many other parts of the globe.  For a comparison, human burning of fossil fuels, worth about 36 billion tons of CO2 emissions per year, comes out to be around 100 million tons per day, so big fires can really make a temporary difference in the total.
–This helps to explain the unusual spike in CO2 readings taken at Mauna Loa in the middle of last month.  That observatory is much of the time directly in the path of massive steady wind flows that move westward from the California coast toward Hawaii and would be enriched with the gas.  (Scroll down.)
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1313