Climate Letter #1372

Posted on February 28, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An analysis of CO2 emissions growth in China, setting a new high in 2018.  This data (from Greenpeace) is closely watched because China is by far the largest contributor to the global trend, and no one can be quite sure of where national policies will take it from here.  Last year proved to be a setback for a declining trend in its rate of growth, but there are reasons for hoping that was only temporary.

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https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2019/02/28/china-coal-renewable-energy-2018-data-trends
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Our society remunerates people who do exactly the wrong things.  This article from Carbon Tracker is about incentives given to executives in the oil and gas industry who achieve maximum rates of growth in production, sometimes at the expense of shareholder returns.  It struck me as an eye-opener, because the same principles apply to our entire system of corporate achievement.  There is a quest for growth of practically everything at the highest possible rate, and whenever it is achieved the rewards are great for, not just executives, but also shareholders, their brokers and money managers, etc.  That may be a good practice during development stages of an economy when growth is really needed, but becomes counterproductive by draining valuable natural resources (not to mention overextending of debt) when there are larger reasons for scaling back.
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When will we see the first ice-free Arctic Ocean in the month of September?  A new study explains why it may come earlier than the standard forecast, which is around mid-century.  There are models that could bring that forward to as early as 2030, mainly dependent on long-term phases in temperature affecting the tropical Pacific Ocean, by a process known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO.  The phases are not easy to predict, but there are some indications of a warm phase being close at hand.  It would influence not just the Arctic Ocean but global averages as well, as it has in the past.
–Note:  A study published early in 2015 connected the IPO to the long hiatus in global temperatures and came to this conclusion:  “Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course soon. Should that happen, we may see accelerated global warming rates in the coming decades.”  Here is a reference:
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The US congress is completely polarized over environmental issues (The Hill).  This “score card” was assembled by the League of Conservation Voters, and the numbers are even more lopsided than I would have guessed.  Regular party voters are surely not that far apart, or are they, because of one man’s dominating effect?
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How sea level rise is affecting property values on the US east coast (Inside Climate News).  “The analysis, published Wednesday by First Street Foundation, estimates that property value losses from coastal flooding in 17 states were nearly $16 billion from 2005 to 2017. Florida, New Jersey, New York and South Carolina each saw more than $1 billion in losses…..This isn’t a forward-facing issue…..It’s something that’s been occurring. It’s something that’s affecting people’s homes now.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1371

Posted on February 27, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new record high for the winter months in the UK (Reuters).  Temperatures in London reached the equivalent of 70F as wildfires were being battled in both England and Scotland.

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A comprehensive report on the role of concrete in today’s world and how it affects the environment (The Guardian).  This is the key section of a series of reports being issued over “Guardian concrete week.”   It truly brings home the importance and sheer scale of an activity that, like burning fossil fuels, brings tremendous benefits to mankind but can end up on balance as a curse if carried too far.  There are still a lot of massive sea walls waiting to be built as the polar ice sheets melt.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/feb/25/concrete-the-most-destructive-material-on-earth?
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A new study of the disruptive effects of chemical waste has been published.  “What most concerns the researchers is the rate at which new chemicals are being introduced and used and which eventually wind up in natural ecosystems, which is so high that there is no way to test their impact. We may be flushing chemicals into the ocean right now that could potentially kill off most if not all marine animals, and not even know it.”  This problem may have little direct impact on the world’s climate, but some of the end results are similar to those of climate change.  The fundamental cause of the problem, too much industrial  development, and too fast, is quite the same as for certain other major problems, and they will all need to be resolved at the same time, in a common way.
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-humans-chemical.html
–Here is a link to a shortened version of the full report:
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The growth of palm oil production is also a major threat to biodiversity, and climate change as well.  This article from The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) explains many of the facts and issues that are involved, with emphasis on the point that making a switch to alternative vegetable oils is not a viable solution.  The solutions that are available require organized efforts and definitely need to be pursued without further delay.
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A review of David Wallace-Wells’ new book, The Uninhabitable Earth, from The Guardian.  The author of this book (which I have also read) does a good job of describing what life on Earth would be like under what is known as a “worst-case scenario,” if global temperatures climb well past the 2C target that was set in Paris. That makes it a good update of a similar type of work by Mark Lynas, Six Degrees: Our Future On A Hotter Planet, published in 2008, which was given considerable attention at the time and is still being read.  The new work is full of references to scientific studies, and the author was given considerable direct assistance by prominent scientists through interviews and script reviews.  That makes the book worthwhile for purposes of risk assessment, whether or not you are comfortable with his own personal outlook that tends toward the gloomy side.  There is much more to the full content.
–Here is what Wallace-Wells himself said about the book for the Los Angeles Times:
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-wallace-wells-climate-change-delusions-20190227-story.html
–And here he is in a five-minute television interview:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1370

Posted on February 26, 2019 by Carl Campbell
More comments related to yesterday’s big story about stratus cloud breakup (Carbon Brief).  The story itself has been widely publicized, made interesting by its’ more sensational elements.  The underlying theory is full of nuances that make it less fearsome, but it still comes across as the best explanation for a real event that occurred when the planet was much hotter to start with.  It is also an interesting way of showing how important clouds are in regulating temperatures, implying that other changes in their structure might be possible and could have some sort of significant impact on the climate, closer in time, under less extreme conditions.

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https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-co2-levels-could-trigger-clouds-tipping-point-and-8c-of-global-warming?
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Researchers find an added reason for concern over the resilience of the Amazon rainforest to changes in climate.  Specifically, changes in the existing pattern of regular rainfall appear to carry the risk of causing the conversion of such forests to savanna.  “The question is, how much change can the Amazon forest cope with? It turns out that while the Amazon is an ancient ecosystem with the ability to adapt over long time-scales, it might not be able to keep up with the pace of ongoing climate change.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-amazon-forest-higher-rainfall-variability.html
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‘Renewable hydrogen’ promises to have a bright future (Carbon Brief).  There is a report that hydrogen made with renewable electricity from wind power is already cost competitive for certain niche applications.  Other studies look forward to further cost reductions that will make hydrogen fully competitive with natural gas as a fuel source in some locations over the next ten to fifteen years.
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Science now confirms that human activity as the cause of climate change is a fully established fact (Reuters).  There is no longer any shred of evidence for doubt about something many of us have long felt was perfectly obvious.  Even the American public at large is now getting the message:  “Sixty-two percent of Americans polled in 2018 believed that climate change has a human cause, up from 47 percent in 2013, according to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.”  (The Climate Letter originated in 2013 and should thus get a small part of the credit for that shift!)
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Another large iceberg is getting set to break off from an ice shelf in Antarctica.  This one, from the Brunt Ice Shelf, is significant not for its size but for the fact that it is positioned in East Antarctica, where the ice is considered to be much more stable than in the West.  “NASA scientists said the crack had been stable for about 35 years, but has since been creeping north at a pace of about 2.5 miles per year.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1369

Posted on February 25, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Advanced climate models offer a new explanation for what caused the dramatic spike in Earth’s temperature,  known as the PETM, 56 million years ago (Quanta magazine).  There is abundant evidence that an already-hot planet gained at least another 6C within a very brief period of time, but the cause has never been clear.  Simulations show that a tipping point is reached when highly warmed air forces the low-lying stratocumulus cloud layer to break up, allowing a sudden rush of new heating, and thus water vapor, from sunlight that is no longer being reflected away.  Several well-known scientists have made favorable comments on the research, but would like to see it replicated by others.

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https://www.quantamagazine.org/cloud-loss-could-add-8-degrees-to-global-warming-20190225/
–Here is a link to the Abstract, which concludes with a warning, “Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO2 levels continue to rise.”
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A reduction in oxygen levels is stressing marine ecosystems (Scientific American).  The average loss is two percent globally, much higher in some locations.  “Ocean animals large and small, however, respond to even slight changes in oxygen by seeking refuge in higher oxygen zones or by adjusting behavior.”  Warmer water is the main cause of the loss, for two separate reasons.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ocean-is-running-out-of-breath-scientists-warn/
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“Is the insect apocalypse really upon us?” (The Atlantic magazine)  There have been a number of articles to that effect lately in prominent journals.  This one tells why a more balanced discussion may be justified, but it is still recognized as a very bad situation.  “Doing something is hard, though, because insect declines have so many factors, and most studies struggle to tease them apart. In their review, Sánchez-Bayo and Wyckhuys point the finger at habitat loss above all else, followed by pesticides and other pollutants, introduced species, and climate change, in that order.”
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A close look at how China produces electricity (Renew Economy).  While slowly losing market share, coal burning still dominates at 65% of total production.  The problem is that total production is still rapidly growing, up 21% in just the last three years, and that keeps the coal numbers moving higher as well.  The story also has an explanation for what is at the base of the rapid economic growth, building construction.  “China’s housing starts, over 15 million dwellings per year, its commercial building and associated infrastructure are less well understood. If they were, the world would understand that’s where large quantities of the steel, cement, aluminium and other basic materials ends up.”  CO2 emissions are sure to keep growing as long as this growth spree continues.
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In the US, big oil wants to modernize to stay competitive, and is getting plenty of help from Silicon Valley (Gizmodo).  All of the latest digital automation tools are being deployed, and they will “enable drilling rigs to run on automated schedules, enhance communication between oilfield equipment, and help machinery assess when it is in need of repair or modification—all in the name of making drilling for oil smarter, cheaper, and more efficient.”  The author sees this as a setback for alternative energy development, and wonders about the contradictions and moral implications of what appears to be an overly warm embrace.  (Stockholders in the form of institutional investment managers may yet have the final say in this matter, aimed at the managers in both types of industries.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1368

Posted on February 22, 2019 by Carl Campbell
More and more wildfires have intensity that is completely uncontrollable.  These have been happening all over the world, linked unmistakably to climate change, and are posing a special threat to populated areas.  Firefighters on the ground can do nothing to stop them.

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https://phys.org/news/2019-02-everythingthe-wildfire-impossible.html
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Other researchers have found ancient evidence that fires have been most violent under climate conditions that have been warm and moist, rather than relatively dry.  Forests that become lush with biomass provide the extra fuel for burning during dry spells.  Reconstructions going back 600,000 years have repeatedly shown this effect.  (We also saw it happen just recently in California.)
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There are good reasons to believe that a rapid transition to 100% renewable energy is technically and economically possible.  “The main barriers are social and political.  The solution requires collective willpower and immediate deployment.”  Australian researchers have found “that shifting to 100 per cent renewables is technically feasible, and at the current rates of deployment [my ital], enough wind and solar could be built by 2032, just 13 years away.”  Elsewhere there are similar opportunities, though maybe not quite that fast.
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A warning from the UN:  The future of food is under ‘severe threat’ due to the rapid of species diversity (The Japan Times).  Biodiversity includes not just species of foods that we eat, which are dwindling, but the many species that are involved in the production of food, and their own life support systems.  Climate change is one of the major threats to relevant biodiversity and is due to become even more severe through mid-century.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/02/22/world/science-health-world/future-food-severe-threat-amid-rapid-decline-species-diversity-u-n-warns/#.XG_YvmRKhdc
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Paleoclimate science:  Why Earth was frozen into a giant snowball about 580 million years ago.  Scientists now think they have found the answer to this mystery.  Remnants of an extreme outflow of volcanic lava have been found, which released massive amounts of both CO2 and fresh rock with timing that was just right.  Once the warming effect of the CO2 subsided the longer-lasting cooling effect of rock weathering would take over.  “The weathering process is especially intense at tropical latitudes. Over timescales of millions to tens of millions of years, the weathered rocks can sequester sufficient carbon dioxide to plunge Earth’s climate into an extreme ice age.”  (The planet was rescued later on from its snowball state by further rounds of volcanism of the ordinary type emitting CO2 but not much rock.)
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-02/uoh-avb022019.php
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An interview with David Wallace-Wells.  David is a journalist who closely follows climate science, and has recently published a book.  I do not think he exaggerates the dark side of the viewpoints expressed here.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1367

Posted on February 21, 2019 by Carl Campbell
How the compounding impacts of climate change will affect different parts of the US (Climate Central).  This analysis follows up on recent studies that show how the damage from climate change differs from place to place, with reference to classification of a large number of specific threats.  It makes forecasts for 244 US cities through 2050, all of which vary according to the kinds of response that are realized which offer abatement opportunities.

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https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-climate-pile-up-global-warmings-compounding-dangers?
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Minnesota has been singled out as a state very likely to see complete transformation within this century from climate change.  A good part of that transformation is already visible, as extensively described in this report:
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CARE has published its third annual review of the top ten countries enduring the most under-reported humanitarian crises of the past year.  Their purpose is not to place blame but mainly to fill in the gaps of awareness, a necessity behind CARE’s efforts to raise the amount of funding needed to provide assistance.  The next story will have more to say about the details of these crises, why they exist and why they are not well-reported.
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Relative to the above, The Guardian provides a more journalistic view taken from a number of sources that have done the research on underlying factors.  As expected, the role of climate change is prominent.  The lack of thorough media coverage is real and some possible reasons are offered.  One example:  “Gnassounou, who is also the ACP’s sustainable development spokesman, said that donor countries sometimes implicitly linked crisis aid to silence about climate change.”  The people living in countries that are most affected are among those who are the least responsible for causing this problem, suggesting that guilt factors are involved.
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“Why we stink at tackling climate change” (Nautilus).  David Barash is an evolutionary biologist who has written many books about the vagaries of human nature.  This essay of his digs into the deepest historical roots of a problem many of us think about but no one really understands.  He is kind of optimistic:  “I submit that everyone reading this article—primates all—have been toilet-trained. Thanks to our cultural evolution, we have cities, houses, and indoor plumbing…..An originally arboreal primate species capable of being toilet-trained should also be capable of becoming planet-trained.”  That’s fine, David, but remember that our race is rapidly aging.  In Japan, for instance, adult diapers are now said to outsell baby diapers by a wide margin.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1366

Posted on February 20, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Why is there so much interest in Thwaites Glacier? (USA Today)  All of the main reasons are well described in this article, which explains why there is such a rush to gain more detailed information.  I am sure we will hear much more about this ‘wildcard’ for sea level rise over the course of the current year.

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/02/19/thwaites-glacier-if-hole-collapses-global-warming-what-happens/2789989002/?
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The ‘other kind of cyclone’ is getting weaker because of climate change, and that is a bad thing for our weather.  Tropical cyclones, which are the same as hurricanes and typhoons, have tightly-knit circular wind patterns, are extremely violent, and tend to move along their paths fairly rapidly.  There are also ‘extratropical cyclones’ that quite commonly form in the higher latitudes of North America.  They also have circular wind patterns, but in this case the winds are slower, the circulating diameters can reach well over a thousand miles across, and their movement tends to be relatively sluggish.  The storm systems and weather systems they introduce are typically unpleasant, including fierce Nor’easters in the winter, and can last for many days or even weeks.  A new study has found that atmospheric changes due to climate warming has caused changes in the energy output of these systems, both stronger and weaker, and has also caused their movement to be even more stagnant than before, thus prolonging the impacts.
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-climate-summer-weather-stormier-stagnant.html
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Separately, an Australian professor has written a piece for The Conversation that takes notice of how many of the brutal weather conditions recently experienced on that continent have shown signs of the same kind of slow movement as in the story above, but more related to tropical storm systems.  He asks, “Could this pattern conceivably be linked to global climate change? Are we witnessing a slowing of our weather systems as well as more extreme weather?”  Many signs seem to be pointing that way.
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Climate change has been an important factor causing the crisis in Venezuela (Scientific American).  This has not been reported in news stories, but the mass migration out of Venezuela has several things in common with the chain of events in Syria that started a few years earlier.  “…..aside from the political crisis, Venezuela got 50 to 65 percent less rainfall than the annual average from 2013 to 2016. That led to rationing of both water and electricity because Venezuela is heavily reliant on hydropower…..these shortages helped to hamstring the Venezuelan economy, cut agricultural output and make the lives of ordinary people worse.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-climate-change-fits-into-venezuela-rsquo-s-ongoing-crisis
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A statement issued by the European Academies’ Science Advisory Council offers a realistic set of recommendations for integrating ‘negative emissions technology’ (NETs) into official policy positions.  Current positions place far too much reliance on capabilities or technologies that may theoretically be possible but in fact are completely unproven.  Research on these things can continue, but actual policies should only focus on doing things we know we can do, and not expecting any help from imaginary agencies or from pursuits known to carry their own high risks.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1365

Posted on February 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A full explanation of the reasons why land use management has such an important role to play in climate mitigation—and is not doing too well (Carbon Brief).  This article was written by the lead author of a new study on the subject, thus providing a perfect review of the whole picture.  One simple point is that political systems are heavily involved, and poorly suited to the task because of its complexity.  On the other side, there are huge opportunities for progress, as reported in yesterday’s Climate Letter with reference to the value of massive tree-planting programs.

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https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-land-management-blind-spots-make-1-5c-goal-highly-unlikely?
–There is a story in today’s news about the way palm oil is being promoted in Indonesia as a source of motor fuel.  It is a clear example of the complexity problem cited in the above story.
http://news.trust.org/item/20190218071139-zwdrp/
–If you want to learn more about how the whole world got hooked on the consumption fo palm oil, and the devastating environmental consequences, here is a “long read” story written for The Guardian by a well-qualified journalist.
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Young forests suck up more carbon as they grow than do old ones of the same size.  This has been reported in a new study by researchers who were able to gather the data needed to make the comparisons.  “The age effect accounted for around 25 per cent of the total carbon dioxide absorbed by forests.”  This encouraging bit of news that should help further the promotion of reforestation projects.
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Researchers explain the important relationship between rainwater and the thawing of permafrost (Inside Climate News).  “Increasing spring rains in the Arctic could double the increase in methane emissions from the region by hastening the rate of thawing in permafrost, new research suggests…..The findings are cause for concern because spring rains are anticipated to occur more frequently as the region warms.”  The leverage that rainfall has over the rate of thawing is not difficult to explain, and certainly is completely credible.
–Here is the full study, with open access:
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A new type of highly efficient solar panel has been standardized for mass production.  This project of a team of inventors based in Switzerland has not received much attention but is apparently on the doorstep of major success.  The panels’ certified efficiency rating of 29% is a good ten points higher than the average of those now on the market, and their cost is projected to be highly competitive relative to energy output.  Talks are ongoing with manufacturers for licensing rights.  “Making our panels entails a few additional steps during the assembly stage. These steps could be tacked on to the end of standard production processes…..The company plans to launch its first product on the market in 2022.”
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Wally Broecker, known to his fellows as ‘the grandfather of climate science’ has died.  He made fundamental discoveries which were first published in the early 1970s, and was effective as a public communicator.  (The Guardian).
Carl

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Climate Letter #1364

Posted on February 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New research confirms the overwhelming need for humans to plant more trees.  The work reported in this post from a British newspaper has done comprehensive studies that find a number of interesting things not widely recognized.  One is that 3 trillion trees now exist on the globe, containing 400 billion tons of carbon in storage.  Second, there is available room, with no inconvenience to anyone, for growing another 1.2 trillion trees, presumably capable of storing 40% more carbon, or another 160 billion tons, upon reaching maturity.  That number is about equal to 15 years’ worth of all the carbon released to the atmosphere by current human activity.

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A different report about another aspect of work done by the same research group highlights a more disturbing type of information, which concerns the potential losses of soil carbon to the atmosphere because of the expected thawing of permafrost in the Arctic.  “Under a business-as-usual climate scenario, the Crowther lab model suggests that warming would drive the loss of ~55 gigatons of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050.”  That would offset a large chunk of what can be accomplished by planting trees, but also doubles down on the urgency of reasons for pursuing a planting program.
Relative to the above information, a study was published last week that updates what we know about what happens to all of the carbon that is emitted each year by human activity.  The authors have tried to show how little of it actually ends up in the sink identified as the “terrestrial biosphere,” an amount that is impossible to measure outright and also difficult to estimate with confidence.  That potentially large sink is known to lose about 1.3 billion tons of carbon each year to changes in land use, like deforestation, that could be avoided.  Further analysis shows that an additional total of 1.5 billion tons ends up being deposited in a number of less-prominent locations, other than the biosphere, that can each be estimated but are too often just overlooked.  The net result is that the biosphere is in fact still “greening” because of the extra CO2 that has a fertilizing effect, but just not very much, taking up less than 1 billion tons per year.  That sink could be greatly magnified by planting trees, improvements in land use and so on, things that are well within the reach of human capability, if organized and delivered, at very low cost.
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An encouraging report on the growth of demand for electric cars,  “As of early 2019 there are now 5.6 million electric vehicles on the road worldwide, a 64 per cent increase from the same time in 2018, and the second year in a row to see unprecedented growth in the burgeoning zero emissions transport market…..China and the USA are leading the charge, so to speak, with China undisputedly at number one with 2.6 million EVs, having practically doubled its EV fleet from 1,354,000 EVs on the road a year ago.”
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Why the rise in methane emissions is so worrisome (The Guardian).  Methane growth in the atmosphere over the last few years has been strengthening when it should have been slowing.  “Dramatic rises in atmospheric methane are threatening to derail plans to hold global temperature rises to 2C, scientists have warned…..And even more significantly, we do not really know why…..Perhaps emissions are growing or perhaps the problem is due to the fact that our atmosphere is losing its ability to break down methane…..Either way we are facing a very worrying problem.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1363

Posted on February 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An investment manager gives his views about the future of oil demand (Bloomberg).  The rate of increase, now slow but steady, will begin to fall in about two years but not become negative until after 2035.  He does not see much probability for higher prices great enough to reduce demand, which will suffer mostly from the rise in popularity of electric vehicles and greater energy efficiency.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/oil-s-twilight-here-s-one-investor-view-on-how-it-plays-out
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British Petroleum has issued its annual forecast, which sees growth in renewable energy being relatively rapid by historical standards (The Guardian).  Its forecast for oil demand is similar to the one in the above story, with allowance for an even greater decline if trade disputes continue between the US and China.
–Comment:  If the more ambitious targets for emission reductions are to be met the demand for oil would need to plummet at a rate far beyond what is stated in these forecasts, with the same being true for both coal and natural gas.  The forecasts, which assume a continuation of population growth and overall economic growth, can be accepted as reasonably accurate in the absence of some form of highly disruptive intervention.  Such interventions, one being a massive carbon tax, can be talked about but no conventional forecasters seem ready to give them real weight at this moment in time.
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Oil and gas production in the US is booming, and thus likely to add an extra measure to global carbon emissions (Axios).  The three principal effects from this present development are the faster replacement of older nuclear power plants in the US with cheap natural gas, more methane escaping from producing wells, and a lowering of global oil prices that would stimulate extra demand.  The last of these by itself could add as much as 3% to global CO2 emissions.
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An interview with a professor of glaciology with top-tier credentials (Carbon Brief).  This person is probably as well-informed as anyone about the very latest thinking of climate scientists on a number of subjects, with proper emphasis on existing uncertainties.  The format used by Carbon Brief is great, starting out with capsulized opinions followed by expanded discussions, which offer plenty of meat for anyone interested.
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California has 149 million dead trees that are ready to burn (Vox).  “Normal background levels of tree mortality for California, what we would typically see through both insects and diseases, is well less than a million trees per year.”  This story shows how the numbers have increased in recent year, with 18 million dead trees added in 2018, and what it all means for the future.
Carl

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