Climate Letter #1382

Posted on March 14, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The UN has issued a major new report about climate change in the Arctic (The Guardian).  The most startling conclusion is that unnatural levels of temperature rise are now locked in until at least mid-century, accompanied by a wide range of information relevant to specific conditions.  The report is based on an extensive list of reference materials provided by the work of many hundreds of qualified scientists, much like the sources used for IPCC reports, but in this case designed for appeal to a wider range of readership.  This report indicates that the timeline for taking strong action toward mitigation has shortened in comparison with what has recently been promoted in other UN reports.

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–A presentation of the report in plain language and well-illustrated graphically is available at this link:
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A new USGS report visualizes massive damages on the coast of California from sea level rise in this century (Phys.org).  “In the most extensive study to date on sea level rise in California, researchers say damages by the end of the century could be far more devastating than the worst earthquakes and wildfires in state history…..More than half a million Californians and $150 billion in property are at risk of flooding along the coast by 2100…..on par with Hurricane Katrina and some of the world’s costliest disasters.”  An assumption of enhancement from unusual storm damage is included in the assessment.
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-destruction-sea-california-worst-wildfires.html
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New research indicates that the Sahel region may become wetter rather than drier as the climate warms.  This post was written by the author of a new study that digs into the various kinds of subtle interactions that affect climate development.  The Sahel is one region that is always on the edge, and can easily tip from one extreme to another on short notice.  Getting the right climate model, which is not easy, can be invaluable to future planning that will affect millions of people.
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Some useful insights into the way forests remove CO2 from the atmosphere as they grow.  A group of researchers made a considerable effort to find good answers to many open questions.  They learned that forests in their early growing stage take up the most CO2, then slow down as they age, and that the growth rate in mid to high latitudes exceeds that in the tropics.  Overall, the potential for uptake is limited and should not be overestimated.
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An article about the catastrophic decline in insect populations, its causes, and strategies required for reversal (Deutsche Welle).  The principal need is for radical changes in agricultural practices.  Avoiding temperature increases above 2C from climate change is also critically important, and there is much more.  “Without bugs, life as we know it would come to a halt.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1381

Posted on March 13, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study tells about “marine snow” and how it helps to cool the planet over time.  This natural way of removing and sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere is a vital component of the ocean sink.  That leads to concerns about the rising rate of ocean acidification.  “We need to understand better how the ocean’s capacity to store CO2 will be affected by future warming…..Ocean acidity has increased by 30 percent since 1800, reducing the capacity of the ocean to store away carbon.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-marine-cools-planet.html

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–Here is another current study that has specific information about the deadly effect of acidification on shelled microorganisms in the Southern Ocean:
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Review of a new “landmark” report from the UN on manmade pollution and environmental damage.  It presently accounts for a heavy disease burden and about 9 million premature deaths each year, mostly occurring in poorer nations.  An association is made with effects attributed to climate change that are worsening the underlying conditions:  “As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise amid a preponderance of droughts, floods and superstorms made worse by climbing sea levels, there is a growing political consensus that climate change poses a future risk to billions.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-environment-global-deaths-disease.html
–It’s not just poor nations that are affected.  The Guardian has a story about research that attributes 800,000 premature deaths each year in Europe to the effects of dirty air.  This study also confirmed the calculations of research published last September stating that there were 8.8 million early deaths per year around the globe just from outdoor air pollution, which was double previous estimates.
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Dramatic changes in precipitation patterns are being detected and are likely to continue, with adverse effects on key crop production.  “The study warns that up to 14 percent of land dedicated to wheat, maize, rice and soybean will be drier, while up to 31 percent will be wetter.”  The rate of change can be reduced if emissions growth is curbed.  This work highlights the urgent need to set plans for adaptation, which in many cases will be costly and time consuming.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190311173147.htm
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A professor of environmental physiology has written an important paper about the impact of heat waves on humans and wildlife.  Jonathan Stillman has gathered information from over 140 scientific studies on the topic and composed a review of the results.  “Summertime is quickly becoming a deadly season for life on Earth,” he wrote in the paper.  “We can’t say it’s going to happen next year…..But if we continue on the current carbon trajectory, by the end of this century we’re going to see heat waves that will dwarf those that have killed huge numbers of people and wildlife.”
–Open access to the full study:
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Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist who makes frequent public presentations about climate change, has written a piece for The Oprah Magazine describing seven different ways that individuals can make a difference.  Her imaginative thoughts go well beyond the things that are routinely mentioned.
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A new version of socialism has taken root in a very red state (Think Progress).  Joe Romm, a climate scientist and staunch liberal, loves to needle his Republican friends.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1380

Posted on March 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new UN report on the global extraction of material resources has been issued, and it is terrifying (The Guardian).  “The biggest surprise to the authors was the huge climate impact of pulling materials out of the ground and preparing them for use. All the sectors combined together accounted for 53% of the world’s carbon emissions – even before accounting for any fuel that is burned.”  That alone complicates everything we normally consider when thinking of ways to combat climate change.  This story has too much information for me to summarize.  Every sentence will give you something to ponder over.

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/12/resource-extraction-carbon-emissions-biodiversity-loss
–Here is another review, slightly shorter, that has some additional insights:
–A preview of the report in a release from the UN has more emphasis on the proposals for change that are recommended for correcting the current imbalance affecting real human needs across all nations.  For example, this sobering message: “Such projections are based on the understanding that growth rates in emerging and other developing economies must be balanced by absolute reductions in resource use in developed countries.”
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The term “anthropocene” has no geological meaning.  The author of this piece, writing for The Conversation, puts the current episode in Earth’s history into a deep-time perspective that fails to recognize much of a footprint.  That point is inarguable, and then his concluding remarks also make very good sense:  “The history of our far future, if we have one, will be one where we learnt to recognise interdependence with nature, with other species. In the end, it is about what it means to be human. As the late environmental philosopher Val Plumwood warned: “We will go onwards in a different mode of humanity, or not at all.”
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Geoengineering with a light touch might be helpful.  A research group has studied the application of solar radiation management of reduced intensity when compared with usual models and come to the conclusion that it should be taken seriously.  The well-known scientist Kerry Emanuel, a co-author of the study, has this to say:  “This study shows that a more modest engineered reduction in global warming can lead to better outcomes for the climate as a whole.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-dose-solar-geoengineering.html
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Some forests in the American West are not bouncing back very well after burning.  This is particularly true for ponderosa pine and Douglas fir in regions where they seem to have crossed a threshold of tolerance to prevailing changes in climate. “The warmer, drier air isn’t harming mature trees, but it is preventing future generations from growing.”
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A fascinating photographic study of a village in Siberia that is known to be the coldest place of human habitation on Earth.  “It is amazing how people decide to move here or stay here, in such a place, thinking it’s the best place in the world.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1379

Posted on March 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An editorial about climate action that everyone in America should read (The Hill). The author writes in a way that is short and to the point, accurate with respect to achievability, and realistic about the reasons for making a special effort.  The same line of reasoning should also be applicable to a solid majority of other nations.

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https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/433423-the-100-percent-renewables-moonshot-were-closer-than
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Energy efficiency does not get much publicity, but it has an important role in climate abatement and is becoming a higher priority among engineers. According to a national association, “Energy efficiency is a growing business…..2.25 million Americans work in Energy Efficiency, in whole or in part, in the design, installation, and manufacture of Energy Efficiency products and services.”  The payback is beneficial to both producers and users, which helps to make it politically feasible.
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-energy-efficiency-clue-politically-feasible.html?
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How climate change affects extreme weather around the world (Carbon Brief).  Based on more than 230 peer-reviewed studies that have been published, “Carbon Brief’s analysis suggests 68% of all extreme weather events studied to date were made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change.”  They have all been mapped and detailed in a convenient way for anyone who wants to see the big picture.
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Over 5 million possible descriptions of future climate scenarios based on every conceivable combination of uncertainties have been modeled and evaluated.  Not may pathways led to a tolerable future, leaving a prominent result that the favorable resolution of two kinds of uncertainty stood out as absolutely essential if a tolerable outcome is to be accomplished.  One is that humans must act immediately to start making drastic cuts in emissions, which the one thing still fully under our control.  The other is no better than a hope, the hope that future climate sensitivity to growth in the atmospheric CO2 level will end up being on the low side of the fairly wide range of uncertainties that is now accepted as proper.  (That range is usually set at plus-1.5 t0 4.5C for a doubling of CO2, with fast feedbacks at equilibrium.)  According to the Abstract, “Even under optimistic assumptions about the climate sensitivity, pathways to a tolerable climate/economic future are rapidly narrowing.”
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Review of a new book about a previous period of climate change that presented many challenges and made a considerable difference for humans life:  “Nature’s Mutiny How the Little Ice Age of the Long Seventeenth Century Transformed the West and Shaped the Present,” by Philipp Blom.  Kirkus Review calls it “An absorbing and revealing portrait of profound natural disaster.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1378

Posted on March 8, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An explanation has been found for why ice ages became longer and more intense starting less than one million years ago.  This is a matter of great interest because there are potential implications for climate change in the near future, although no conclusions to that effect have been drawn.  The main finding is that the transition to deeper ice age cycles involved a reduction in the release of CO2 from deep waters in the Southern Ocean due to a diminution of mixing between deep and surface layers.  Less CO2 in the air held back the warming that would naturally occur based on regular effects of changes in the solar orbital cycles.

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“The findings show that mixing was significantly reduced at the end of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, about 600,000 years ago. Moreover, they explain how the reduced mixing diminished the amount of CO2 released by the ocean, which in turn reduced the greenhouse effect and intensified ice ages. The study thus sheds light on feedback mechanisms capable of significantly slowing or accelerating ongoing climate change.”
The process is rather complicated, but inevitably leads one to wonder whether the changes we are making can cause a reversal in the mixing pattern that would allow the renewed escape of more CO2—in quantities large enough to induce additional changes in the climate—by nature’s own hand.  This report is sure to get plenty of attention, and probably speculation, so stay tuned.
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-deep-southern-ocean-key-intense.html
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More information about the increase in rainfall on Greenland (Inside Climate News).  The news reported in yesterday’s letter has attracted considerable interest.  This post adds insights showing the importance that scientists are attaching to it and also some charts  that distinguish between summer and winter events.  “A glaciologist who studies ice sheet meltwater feedbacks, said the study reinforces some of his own ongoing research showing that both rain and melting are increasing, and that the rate of melting is increasing 10 times faster than rainfall…..”These cyclones come in bringing rain and start melt events that persist long beyond the time of initial melting.”  There is good reason for all the concern about future sea level rise.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07032019/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-rain-increase-climate-change-sea-level-rise-feedback-loop
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A new study, written in plain language  for wide audiences, summarizes the connection between changes in the Arctic environment and the substantial impacts in low and mid latitudes.  Here is the introduction:
–The full study is available with open access when you click on the “pdf” link.  This work is based on references to many other studies of original importance that are briefly described in the text and listed at the end.
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An exploration of the relationship between psychology and climate change (The New Yorker).  This timely article was prompted by the apparent fact that many people are just now becoming acutely aware of the dangers of climate change, and the urgent need to taking action, for the first time, and must deal with the feelings engendered.  The author has found some sources that have helpful advice.
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Evangelical Christians in the US have begun taking a stronger interest in climate change (Deutsche Welle).  This is a group that favored Trump over Clinton by 81 to 16% and constitute more than one-quarter of the population.  Keeping those numbers intact would surely be vital to his reelection.  Some of their ministers are talking more to them about the value of environmental stewardship.  “We’re seeing a remarkable changing of the times,” Hescox told DW, adding that although many evangelicals are still dismissive of global warming, “a growing number are “getting behind climate science.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1377

Posted on March 7, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Deep ocean waters in the South Pacific are rapidly warming.  Actual measurements have been taken since the 1990s to depths as great as four miles.  The pace of warming, while not high, is accelerating, at a rate that shows signs of successive doubling over periods of just one decade.  Deep water in the South Pacific is warmed by the descent of cold surface water around Antarctica, which is less salty than it was before, and apparently warmer as well.  These deep waters then move northward.  This means the entire ocean is now collecting heat at all depths, heat which basically has no means of escape on anything less than multi-millennial timescales.

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https://phys.org/news/2019-03-deep-robots-south-pacific-ocean.html
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Rainy weather is becoming more common over parts of Greenland’s ice sheet.  This has a major impact on the melt rate of the surface ice for a number of reasons.  Moreover, meltwater that refreezes serves as an enabler for future melting increases.  “Projections of sea-level rise for the end of this century generally range from two to four feet, but most projections do not yet account for what may happen to the ice in Greenland, nor with the much larger mass in Antarctica, because understanding of the physics is still not advanced enough…..This new paper does important work understanding and quantifying.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-greenland-icein-winter.html
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A separate study shows how the positioning of Greenland’s snowline has a major effect on surface melting.  This turns out to be a perfect complement to the study in the story above.  The tendency for snowlines to retreat and darken the surface albedo has not previously been picked up by climate models.  “The result of those improvements in modeling snowline, the researchers say, would be more accurate forecasts of Greenland’s future contributions to sea-level rise.”
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/3/eaav3738
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Two different plans that tax carbon and pay dividends are being debated.  Inside Climate News has done its usual superb job of analyzing and comparing the plans in considerable depth.  This is worth studying, and you can make your own comparisons with various versions of the Green New Deal alternative, which all differ in large part by giving scant recognition to the importance of a carbon tax.
–For more on the Green New Deal, and why it is being pushed by politicians in the Democratic Party, this post from Yale e360, written by Elizabeth Kolbert, features an interview with Senator Ed Markey with plenty of tough questions.  The senator makes a very good point about how the proposal has ignited a real surge in debate that should get more people involved in doing some hard thinking about the need as well as the best response.  How to keep the subject from being overly politicized remains a danger not well addressed.
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A technology that enlarges the potential for geothermal energy is being promoted by a small Swedish company (Quartz).  This looks exciting as a renewable option for many locations, and gains credibility by the fact that the venture fund backed by Bill Gates has seen enough merit to contribute funding.  In terms of both safety and reliability geothermal is at the head of the class, and I would certainly hope this venture succeeds.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1376

Posted on March 6, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study foresees serious water shortages in the US within this century due to population growth and climate change (Fortune).  “As both demand and water evaporation increase, up to 96 of the 204 water basins that provide fresh water to Americans are projected to have monthly shortages by 2071.”  Significant reductions in crop irrigation are recommended as a leading means of remediation.

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http://fortune.com/2019/03/04/water-shortages-study/
–The full study has open access:
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Contamination of groundwater is a problem caused by practically every coal plant (The Guardian).  Aside from the CO2 emissions this is another major reason for bringing a stoppage to the use of coal as a source of energy.  The problem is caused by the immense volume of toxic coal ash that must be disposed of as waste.  This story is based on a close study of consequences in the US, but the findings can be applied throughout the world.  “Using industry’s own data, our report proves that coal plants are poisoning groundwater nearly everywhere they operate.”
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What big oil has always known about climate change, and sought to conceal (Medium).  This post, made up of interesting highlights, was derived from a 51-page document presented as a friend-of-the-court brief in a California lawsuit.  The conclusion:  “Big Oil has known for a very long time that the production and burning of fossil fuels would be disastrous for the planet, yet they were doing everything in their power to confuse the public, undermine the scientific evidence of the dangers, and prevent any action to stave off worldwide climate change.”
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The true story of Greenland’s historical temperature change (Carbon Brief).  This post begins by giving extensive coverage to the needed correction of some early materials that were used in a misleading way by climate deniers.  The latter part presents updated charts based on much more accurate data starting 12,000 years ago.  Note that today’s figures are still below those of the warm peak reached in 6000 BC, when the solar cycle was at a maximum level of radiation in the Northern Hemisphere.
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A close look at how millions of lives are being affected by major drought conditions (The Nation).  The author is a freelance journalist who has paid personal visits to some of the sites, and now wonders why there is so little press coverage in wealthy nations that are less affected.
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Proponents are making a case for broader acceptance of small nuclear reactors that could be produced at low cost on factory assembly lines (Climate News Network).  Comparisons are made with reactors regularly employed without ill effects on nuclear-powered submarines.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1375

Posted on March 5, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An expert analysis of the trend of CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels (Carbon Brief).  This is a very clear and well-charted explanation of what is going on, with emphasis on the one country (China) that has been most responsible for the growth since 1980, when it was beginning to industrialize.  What China actually did last year has not been confirmed and its next move is not predictable.  As for the global picture, the “all others” category of nations has already begun to dominate the trend but without getting much in the way of analysis apart from totals.  This group of more than 160 countries emits over 41% of the 37 billion ton total and is growing faster than any single large nation, including India, or the EU as a whole.  The EU can be praised for the example it has set in cutting emissions since 1980.

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https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-slower-than-expected-in-2018?
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A major new study has been published about the rising devastation caused by “ocean heatwaves.”  This post from Phys.org has a definition of the term and review of the main findings.  “By definition, marine heatwaves last at least five days. Sea water temperatures for a given location are ‘extremely high’—the top 5-to-10 percent on record for that time and place.”  The consequences described are grave, and future prospects are far from reassuring:  “Even if humanity does manage to cap global warming at ‘well below’ 2C (3.6 F), as called for in the Paris climate treaty, marine heatwaves will sharply increase in frequency, intensity and duration, earlier research has shown.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ocean-heatwaves-devastate-wildlife-worse.html
—The Guardian has a story about the study which includes further insights and commentaries plus two of its charts that should be seen to appreciate how great the changes have been in just the last couple of decades.
–You can also take a look at the full study at this link, which among other things shows how much collective effort has gone into the making of this report:
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Again thanks to The Guardian, we get a story having more specific details about the effects of marine heatwaves in the waters around Australia and New Zealand.  Note how certain undesirable species, like jellyfish, always seem to move in and thrive once the regulars are gone.
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The Guardian also has a separate story about a different recently published study having a closely related topic dealing with the mechanics of ocean heat uptake.  (See the lead story in CL #1335, January 8th.)  It serves as a useful reminder of how great is the amount of heat being added to ocean water and then remaining there, while circulating from place to place among the basins.  Eventually there will be a point of saturation, but there is still a long way to go because the oceans are so very large and the deepest waters so very cold, just a degree or two above freezing.  Once saturation has been reached much of the ocean’s life will be gone and all of the energy still being collected at the surface from above will simply be returned to the atmosphere, like it does today from land, gaining extra warmth as a result.  Meanwhile, the existing circulation patterns in the oceans are likely to suffer changes due to the warming, adding further to the upset of ecosystems along with other unwanted effects as they do so.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1375

Climate Letter #1374

Posted on March 4, 2019 by Carl Campbell
“Green New Deal vs. Carbon Tax: A Clash of 2 Worldviews, Both Seeking Climate Action”  From Inside Climate News, a complete rundown of the many political positions being taken in the US as calls for climate action get much louder.  With carbon tax no longer having a leadership role among serious proposals, there is just no way to forecast the outcome.

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Demand for ultra-soft toilet paper is helping bring ruin to Canada’s boreal forests (The Guardian).  “About 28m acres of Canadian boreal forest is cut down each year, an area the size of Pennsylvania. Virgin pulp, the key ingredient in toilet paper, accounted for 23% of Canada’s forest product exports.”
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Temperatures in the UK have set records by unbelievably wide margins (The Guardian).  “It’s at least a one-in 200-year event, but it could be more because my statistical tools break down because this was so far outside what we are used to in February.”  According to the Met Office, the mean maximum temperature in February was up to 3.5C above the average between 1981 and 2010.
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Scientists are confused and worried about a recent surge in methane emissions (LA Times).  “The hope was that methane would be starting on its trajectory downwards now…..But we’ve seen quite the opposite: it’s been growing steadily for over a decade.”  Methane emissions are making a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect that causes global warming, and must be halted just like CO2.  How to get that accomplished is in many ways more complicated because of the diverse and unusual set of sources.
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The last remnant of the mighty Laurentide Ice Sheet is on a course of disappearance (Chicago Tribune).  The Barnes Ice Cap, located across Baffin Bay from Greenland and still 1600 feet thick, may have survived all of the major ice age cycles but will probably be gone within 300 years.  The story offers a fine introduction to the history of North American ice sheet dynamics.
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Significant progress toward the goal of converting algae into biofuel.  Engineers at the University of Utah have made a key discovery that improves processing efficiency.  “This is game-changing…..The breakthrough technologies we are creating could drive a revolution in algae and other cell-derived biofuels development. The dream may soon be within reach.”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1374

Climate Letter #1373

Posted on March 1, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study about “permafrost peatlands” reveals a discovery that has favorable overtones.  These peatlands are hotspots for carbon emissions when they thaw, and CO2 losses are indeed readily observed.  Methane losses, however, were much lower than expected in this experimental study, by way of formation of a deep carbon sink within the soil once it has thawed and dried out.  Other research has found that Arctic wetlands, once they have thawed, are mostly expected to drain and dry out.  The net effect reduces the overall concern about what may happen as permafrost thaws, which has already begun but is subject to so much uncertainty that IPCC projections have had little to offer that meets its usual standard of confidence.

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–A link to the full study, clearly a work of strong effort and high credibility:
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Two new studies have been jointly issued by atmospheric scientists at the University of Albany.  The one that is first reviewed in this post has the most interest, and is the easiest to understand.  It basically concludes that the rapid warming of temperatures in the Arctic is closely linked to the melting of sea ice, which will continue for one or two more centuries.  “When the sea ice melts away completely, this elevated warming will also disappear and the warming rate in the Arctic will be similar to the rest of the world.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-atmospheric-scientists-climate-clues.html
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How atmospheric rivers develop and lead to disastrous flooding events (National Geographic).  “They transport huge volumes of water around the world, carrying it along as vapor and cloud droplets. In an average atmospheric river, about 25 times as much water flows through the air high overhead as through the Mississippi River—and on any given day, about three or four are either developing or flowing through the sky in each hemisphere.”  The increased flooding we are getting this year is largely due to the greater evaporation caused by the current warming of tropical ocean waters.  That warming trend will continue, bringing more of these rivers.
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There are important new developments opening the door more widely for flow batteries.  Research at the University of Sydney has developed proprietary technology that improves the functioning of zinc bromine flow batteries, leading to the formation of a company that already has international backing for the introduction of commercial applications.  “So we’ve been able to overcome the disadvantages of zinc bromine by creating a fully sealed gel battery that has no moving parts, is very simple to make, and has a long lifetime.”  These and other advantages, including low cost of material, indicate potential for the products to be highly competitive for energy storage ranging from individual homes all the way up to major grid backup, as required for proper supply of much renewable energy.
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The story of what is happening to the world’s fisheries because of ocean warming, and their future outlook (Inside Climate News).  This post has a summary of several recent studies, and is highlighted with a chart showing how the downtrend in fish production began about thirty years ago, just as the warming entered its acute stage of steady increases.  The livelihoods of over one billion people depend on these fisheries.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1373