Climate Letter #1402

Posted on April 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Food has a key role to play in the solution to climate change (The Globe Post).  This was the topic of a World Bank-hosted forum.  “In fact, Rockström stated in his keynote speech that both the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement would undeniably fail unless the world makes a radical shift in how it produces, consumes and discards food.”

This is primarily because viagra sale australia of the close relationship between the UK and India. Take a glass prescription de cialis of lemonade and sit back. The problem of impotence has become a nightmare in every angle as men end up sleeping on a couch instead of providing pleasure filled satisfaction to their respective partners. viagra price downtownsault.org Vacuum pumps: It is one among most effective methods of getting a prognosis before treatment can be purchase levitra diagnosed.

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Relevant to the above, six big questions about beef consumption are answered in a straightforward way (EcoWatch).  Also, take a look at this whole website, which I am not familiar with in any regular way.  I believe it has a sound editorial program offering useful information about environmental protection.
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A disturbing overview of the globe’s climate refugee problem (Deutsche Welle).  “Estimates for how many people will relocate because of climate change vary between 25 million to 1 billion by mid century…..The UN warns that by 2045, 135 million people may be displaced by desertification alone.”  Applications for asylum are predicted to accelerate as temperatures rise.  The tightening of borders is not seen as an acceptable solution.
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Bill McKibbin has taken note of restless behavior among people in younger generations who are responding to the reality of climate change (The Guardian).  “The respectable have punted; so now it’s up to the scruffy, the young, the marginal, the angry to do the necessary work. Their discipline and good humor and profound nonviolence are remarkable, from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Greta Thunberg. They are what’s left of our fighting chance.”
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A new study has proof that shade trees substantially reduce the overheating of cities in summer (Climate News Network).  The researchers got their data by taking pains to accurately measure real temperature differences for every kind of setting at many times of day, over and over.  “In those patches where two or more trees met and two-fifths of the sky was screened by foliage, the temperature dropped by an average of 3.5°C and sometimes − especially where the number of trees and their proximity delivered ever more shade − by up to 5.7°C.”  Those are big numbers.  People need to get busy and start planting right now.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1401

Posted on April 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
How the Middle East is suffering from climate change (World Economic Forum).  This is the region where the highest temperatures on record have been set, with an absolute peak of 54C (129.2F).  It suffers from having a hot location to begin with, plus experiencing some of the highest anomalies on Earth due to climate change.  “And without urgent action to curb global emissions…..cities in the region may become uninhabitable before 2100.”

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What climate change is doing to cities and towns on the West Coast of northern Africa (Citylab).  “More than 100 million people live in West Africa’s coastal areas…..Shorelines are receding by as much as 10 meters (33 feet) a year in some areas.”  While a city of 300,000 is in serious trouble, one village has already disappeared, lying several feet under water.
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The New Republic offers a critique of two prominent efforts to explain the catastrophic nature of climate change, both within the past year, by Nathaniel Rich and David Wallace-Wells.  The reviewer, Meehan Crist, has won numerous awards for journalism.  Her underlying theme concerns the difficulties faced by anyone hoping to communicate the real climate story to the general public, and she does so very well.  “How do you talk about an emergency when it seems as if no one is listening?…..Climate change is huge, abstract, and wickedly complex, so it resists the kind of easy narrative that might make it stick in a reader’s mind or suggest concrete policy.”
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Here comes another book devoted to the same kind of climate story, and of at least the same high level of authority, this time by Bill McKibben.  Rolling Stone has published excerpts of the book, “FALTER: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?,” due for release on April 16. 
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Studies show that climate change is a principal cause of the migration problem on the southern US border (Washington Monthly).  It looks like policy decisions that now seem difficult will only get harder.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1400

Posted on April 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Earth’s mountain glaciers are disappearing more rapidly than previously estimated (AP).  “The most comprehensive measurement of glaciers worldwide found that thousands of inland masses of snow compressed into ice are shrinking 18 percent faster than an international panel of scientists calculated in 2013…..five times faster now than they were in the 1960s…..Their melt is accelerating due to global warming.”  (These glaciers hold enough water to raise sea levels about 16 inches if it all melted.)

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A new study sees a growing threat of simultaneous heatwaves round the globe.  Heatwaves in 2018 affected 17 countries spread across three continents.  “By studying the measurement data, the researchers realised that such large-scale heatwaves first appeared in the northern hemisphere in 2010, then in 2012, and again in 2018. Prior to 2010, however, the researchers did not find any instances of such large areas being affected simultaneously by heat…..Model calculations confirm this trend. As the earth grows warmer, widespread heat extremes become more and more likely.”  This poses considerable risk related to sufficiency of food supplies that could be shared.
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It takes about ten million years for the biosphere to recover following a mass extinction (Fast Company).  That is the conclusion of a new study that looked into the consequences of the rapid extinction process now occurring, which is not yet in the “mass” category but firmly heading in that direction.  Climate, and the CO2 level, could recover fairly quickly but the evolutionary processes behind biodiversity development are much slower.
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A theory explaining lower temperatures during the Little Ice Age has been fortified (Eos).  A very thorough new study explains the linkage between sharp population decline in the New World, increased vegetation, reduced CO2 level and lower temperatures in the 17th century.  “The idea was first proposed in 2003 by University of Virginia paleoclimatologist William Ruddiman, but the new study offers a synthesis of previously published population data for the Americas, alongside statistics of land use change, altered fire regimes, and carbon uptake by regrowing plants and trees that led to the dip in carbon dioxide emissions…..With drastically fewer people in the Americas, there was a lot less agriculture and a lot less burning.”
–Full access to the paper at this link:
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Collecting CO2 and using it in the production of materials needed for making concrete could be of great help toward re-cooling of the climate (Grist).  One particular idea is under active development by a company called Blue Planet, headed by an inventor who has high credibility based on earlier work.  “The annual use of aggregate is over 50 billion tons and growing fast. Making it from synthetic limestone instead of quarried rock could sequester 25 billion tons a year — meaning that, in 40 years, this solution alone could remove a trillion tons of CO2 from the air, enough to restore pre-industrial levels…..Blue Planet’s limestone, created using emissions collected from the Moss Landing Power Plant on Monterey Bay and other sources, has already been added to concrete in areas of San Francisco International Airport.”  Stanford University has done testing.
–Much more information at the Blue Planet website:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1399

Posted on April 8, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A major new study provides in-depth analysis of physical changes in the Arctic due to temperature gains (Inside Climate News).  The study, which begins in 1971, covers a period when the Arctic was warming 2.4 times as fast as the global average, causing a massive transformation.  “Global warming is transforming the Arctic, and the changes have rippled so widely that the entire biophysical system is shifting toward an “unprecedented state,” an international team of researchers concludes in a new analysis of nearly 50 years of temperature readings and changes across the ecosystems…..Together, the changes documented in the study suggest the effects on the region are more profound than previously understood.”

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–Here is the study in full, written in non-technical language.  It is well worth reading, and be sure to watch the video that is part of the introduction.  The lead author, Jason Box, has has an outstanding record of public communication, and it shows.
–A story about this report by CBC contains a number of extra insights heard from two of the co-authors:
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A good reporter has gathered information and opinions related to all the major flooding events that have been happening around the world (Think Progress).  “At the very basic level, what we can say is that the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, so we are expecting to see events that are more severe.”
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What is the risk of completely devastating climate change?  David Spratt is an Australian who has spent decades studying the science, the way it is presented, and the human response at the most critical level where science is translated into policies that lead to action.  His views, which have often been published, are generally constructed as an attempt to represent, not his own opinion, but the reality of what people in a variety of important leadership roles are actually saying and doing.  He is quite good at this.  Here is his latest analysis, as published in Arena Magazine.  One person he quotes, John Schellnhuber, has this to say in conclusion:  “We have to save the world but we have to save it in a muddled way, in a chaotic way, and also in a costly way. That is the bottom line, if you want to do it in an [economically] optimal way, you will fail.”’
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The managers of giant investment funds can make a real difference, and two more have decided to do so (The Guardian).  “Norway’s $1tn oil fund, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, is to plunge billions of dollars into wind and solar power projects. The decision follows Saudi Arabia’s oil fund selling off its last oil and gas assets.”  Decisions like this can have a surprisingly important role toward offsetting the ineffectiveness of all those persons (as in the above story) who choose to procrastinate.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1398

Posted on April 5, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A Carbon Brief profile:  Australia.  A superlative look at a fascinating country that exhibits one extreme after another.  It has the potential to go 100% carbon-free, maybe sooner than any other nation—something fiercely and openly resisted by the federal government and the leaders of certain huge industries.

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–An update on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.  “Rising sea temperatures have wrecked the Great Barrier Reef’s ability to regrow, researchers said Wednesday, highlighting for the first time a 90 percent fall in new corals since back-to-back heatwaves bleached the World Heritage site.”

https://phys.org/news/2019-04-global-disrupts-recovery-coral-reefs.html

An important new study about a vital component of the carbon sink—vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere.  “Until now, it has been known that land vegetation and oceans absorb as much as half of the CO2 emitted by human activities. This new study shows that the vegetation sink in the Northern Hemisphere has made a dominant contribution to global carbon uptake over the past 50 years. Far from being compromised by recent droughts and climate changes, this carbon sink has increased considerably over the last twenty years.”  It looks to me like this information was drawn from high quality research.  It sends a clear message that going to work on reforestation and various other land reclamation projects must quickly get moving on a massive scale, as it really does good things for the climate.
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Another recent study has the same idea but takes a different approach (Yale Climate Connections).  “Climate change experts accept that reducing greenhouse gas emissions – even doing so substantially – won’t be sufficient for limiting atmospheric warming to the 2°C (3.6°F) goal of the Paris Climate Agreement. And with carbon capture technologies years away from maturity and widespread commercialization, one option is to take advantage of proven nature-based systems for sequestering carbon.”  The study proceeds to demonstrate the tremendous potential for accomplishment, with many associated benefits.  According to the lead author, “We have a rapidly closing window to achieve a world that everyone agrees we want, and the only way to get there is to invest in natural climate solutions, on top of rapidly transitioning the energy sector…..It’s really our only hope.”   (Geoengineering is also a hope, but not nearly as dependable.)
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Serious flooding in Iran (BBC News).  This link has a couple of videos with some sensational footage of a truly extreme event.
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A message from Bill McKibben.  Bill has been an environmental activist for decades, writing many books and countless articles and giving speeches along the way.  I believe he has an unmatched perspective on every aspect of the problem of climate change.  “Environmentalist and author Bill McKibben calls climate change the most important issue facing the world today and likens the struggle against it to the Second World War.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1397

Posted on April 4, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New information from scientists who study the Pliocene epoch (BBC News).  This covers a time when the CO2 level at its peak was in the same range as where we are today and temperatures were warmer by 2-3 degrees C (or perhaps 3-4C above preindustrial).  There was a meeting in London yesterday of the foremost researchers in this field of study, and hopefully transcripts of their speaches will soon be available.  This post has a good preview of what to expect in the way of newly updated information.

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–Here are key details about the meeting and the speakers:
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A new study has much to say about planetary changes over the last 3 million years.  This covers the tail end of the Pliocene period and the Pleistocene (or Quaternary) period that follows, marking the transition into the ice ages and the way they evolved.  Some of the information that this research team from Potsdam Institute uncovered is rather startling, such as their finding that the CO2 level never even reached 400 ppm during this entire time frame, nor did global temperatures exceed 2 degrees above preindustrial levels during the Pleistocene.
–The entire study is available at this link, and is worth a good look.  I would suggest that you find Figure #2 and check out the descriptions of key elements that were charted.  Also, it appears to me that the methods employed in making this study were of high quality and the results can be taken no less seriously than others that came before.  Could this very exacting work be extended back into the mid-Pliocene warm period that occurred not long before the cutoff of 3 million years used in this study?  That period is where our current CO2 level seems to be taking us.
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Spain is facing the prospect of soil degradation leading to widespread desertification (Politico).  According to a special report issued in December by the EU, three-quarters of the nation’s land is subject to risk of desertification, likely to require intensive new farming methods in order to remain useful.
–Here is a copy of the full report, with every nation covered in much detail:
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Review of a leading technology for extracting CO2 from the atmosphere (BBC News).  Carbon Engineering, a Canadian company, “says that its direct air capture (DAC) process is now able to capture the gas for under $100 a tonne,” and has received the funding needed to build its first commercial facilities.  The CO2 can be converted into liquid transportation fuels, making it less attractive to environmentalists but nevertheless interesting as an option that may actually be economically viable.
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Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize laureate in economics, has an interesting approach toward enforcement of international cooperation in the struggle against climate change (EURACTIV).  He has written a new book that shows how to rewrite the rules in terms of trade relationships.  “But Stiglitz argues Europe and China should now consider climate-related trade sanctions against the US. And there is a legal precedent at the World Trade Organisation to provide them with the legal grounds to do so, he suggested.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1396

Posted on April 3, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A strong new push has begun toward furthering restoration of the world’s ecosystems.  An international group of scientists and activists have organized a campaign to promote that goal, briefly described in a joint letter of introduction.  Here is a copy of their letter as publicized by The Guardian:

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–These are editorial comments added by the environment editor of the newspaper:
–George Monbiot, a prominent British naturalist, appears to be the spearhead of this movement.  Here is how he described it in summary fashion for The Guardian, including a short video which he narrated:

https://www.theguardian.comcommentisfree/2019/apr/03/natural-world-climate-catastrophe-rewilding

A more detailed look at the rationale of the science behind the movement is found in a section of the group’s new website, under the name of Natural Climate Solutions.  The 40 main points include many references to scientific studies that provide supporting evidence.
–Also note the list of organizations that are named as existing allies in this work, deserving public support, with links to their websites:
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Burning coal to produce steel and cement is a major source of CO2 emissions (Axios).  It is a problem that cannot be overlooked, and remains difficult to fix.  “While options exist to reduce or eliminate coal from those processes, many of the necessary technologies require policies, incentives and new markets to bring down the costs of commercial deployment.”  These are efforts that should be subsidized.
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New research quantifies the extent of damage from landslides in the Arctic caused by melting permafrost.  Once started they keep expanding, and are impossible to stop.  Banks Island in British Columbia now has over 4000 active slumps with potential for many times that number.  They tend to get started when there is an unusually hot summer.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1395

Posted on April 2, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Restoring forests to their natural state captures far more carbon than common proposals for setting up plantations.  New research has made a thorough study of the difference as viewed in many varying locations.  “Using long-term carbon sequestration rates for natural forest, plantations and agroforestry, the researchers show that restoring natural forests over 350 million hectares of land removes 42 billion tonnes of carbon by 2100, whereas using current pledges for plantations (45%), natural forests (34%) and agroforestry (21%) applied to the whole area reduce this to 16 billion tonnes of carbon by 2100, assuming that all new natural forests are protected.”  Furthermore, “No scenario has been produced that keeps climate change below dangerous levels without the large-scale restoration of natural forests.”

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Sea level rise is accelerating.  This report from NASA is recorded in two charts.  The long-term chart–the lower one–clearly shows an acceleration beginning in the year 2000, but that type of record ended in 2013.  The newer data, derived from satellites since 1883, shows an additional acceleration breeakout in 2015-16 that has not fallen back like some of these do and is now setting new highs.  The underlying pace, while always uneven and not terribly fast, is regularly gaining strength.
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For Australia as a whole the month of March was more than 2C above average.  The first quarter broke its old record by 0.9C, and above-average temperatures are expected to continue.  Thus 2019 could easily break the old annual record set in 2016.
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A new study sees changes in the Pacific Ocean that augment a warmer climate. (Earth & Space Science News).  The changes are cyclical and slow-moving, taking years to develop, impelled by a shifting in the movement of trade winds.  The result is the creation of long-lasting El Nino-like conditions that bring more heat to the ocean surface which adds to air temperatures and changes rainfall patterns.  The climate “hiatus” earlier in this century was on the opposite side of the cycle.
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More arguments are being made by scientists who favor urgent action on climate change (Phys.org).  “Most of the threats from climate change are 50 to 75 years out…..But scientists say that taking action on climate change is very much a challenge of the present…..The next decade is really critical.”  This article was based on interviews with a number of leading scientists, including two who helped write the last IPCC report.  There is a reminder that the truth pertaining to climate sensitivity, on which the carbon budgets depend for meeting temperature targets, remains unknown and could easily end up near the higher end of the range.
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“The Day the Dinosaurs Died” (The New Yorker).  This has been called the most significant event in the history of life on Earth.  The story, which is quite lengthy, covers new discoveries that offer insights into the details of how the event unfolded.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1394

Posted on April 1, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Update on the atmospheric CO2 level.  The graph in this link (scroll down) is unique from the standpoint of how daily results so far in 2019 are widely scattered with no sense of direction.  April is always a little like that so don’t look for anything different in the month ahead.  We can still expect to see everything come together and form a normal turning point in mid-May, but where that turning point will lie is impossible to foresee.  We can still hope it will not be higher than 414 ppm, which would keep it on the same track so far experienced in this century, but it is hard to hope for anything much better, which we badly need.

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Severe bleaching on the world’s southern-most coral reef (The Guardian).  Lord Howe Island is a world heritage site that lies in the Tasman Sea off the southeast coast of Australia, farther south than the Great Barrier Reef.  The bleaching event that occurred this last summer, caused by warmer ocean water, was the worst ever seen.  “Our concern now is we’re going to start seeing coral mortality.”
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New temperature records are being set in Alaska (The Hill).  Just recently it was the earliest day of the year to reach a high of 70F.  Alaska is the nation’s fastest warming state, which is in keeping with the warming pattern seen in all other regions above or near the Arctic Circle.
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A new study from Max Planck Institute discusses several effects of removing the aerosol pollutants associated with burning fossil fuels, once the burning has stopped.  The most important of these is the expected global drop of some 3 million premature deaths per year from disease prevention.  The study also looked at the cooling effect of aerosol pollution that reflects sunlight, which it currently estimates to be 0.5C.  The loss of that effect would need to be offset in order to avoid a similar, fast-acting amount of temperature increase.  Toward that end, “The rise in temperature resulting from the removal of pollution particles from the air can be tempered by a simultaneous reduction of the greenhouse gases methane, ozone and hydrofluorocarbons in the troposphere.”  Possible changes in rainfall patterns are also discussed.
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A major new European study has found reasons to believe that the behavior of individuals can make a substantial difference in climate mitigation, if properly encouraged.  “The study notes that voluntary lifestyle choices by well-meaning individuals would only achieve around half the required emission reductions needed to hit the 1.5 C Paris Agreement goal. But the authors suggest that Paris targets could be achieved if voluntary choices were combined with policies that target behavioural change, particularly around eating meat and using fewer cars and airplanes.”  The details are well-described and can be put to immediate use by activist campaigns.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1393

Posted on March 29, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An opinion piece by Michael Mann about the Republican Party’s climate change dilemma, published by Newsweek.  The party’s strategy has mostly turned from denial to delay, but anything more would require a clean break with the fossil fuel industry that provides much of its funding.  “Fortunately, it seems that GOP climate denial may be starting to thaw, as they evolve from a party of outright denial to one that at least pays lip service to solutions. The only question is which will melt first, Republican denial and delay, or the polar ice caps?”

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David Roberts, who frequently writes about climate change for Vox, takes a somewhat more combative stand toward Republican obstructionism.  He sees climate change as a catastrophe in progress that requires a radical change in the status quo.  He concludes with:  “Enacting sweeping reform, in the face of a US political system heavily weighted in favor of the status quo, requires a groundswell. A popular mandate. And that in turn requires an agenda that can spark the public imagination and pull in apathetic and infrequent voters. Policy that is designed not to bother anyone won’t do that.”
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A British professor of ecological sustainability makes observations about the carbon emissions attributed to the Earth’s richest people (The Conversation).  Using statistics provided by Oxfam, he argues that the root of the problem does not lie with overpopulation, or with nations, but with a specific class of people.  This same group has more than ordinary access to control over lawmakers and lobbyists.
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A retired professor of horticulture believes almost everyone could cut back on purchases of consumer goods (Yale Climate Connections).  That is truly an easy way to shrink one’s carbon footprint, and perhaps do even more for personal well-being.  “In reality, according to historian David Christian, many components of a good life – friendship, empathy, kindness and generosity, good conversation, an appreciation of beauty, a sense of physical well-being and security, a sense of contentment, a sense of intimacy, a sense of humor, and a delight in good ideas – require no consumption and are “renewable resources” that emit no greenhouse gases.”
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Loss of ocean oxygen  had a central role in an early mass extinction.  The cause of the extinction that took place 430 million years ago has long been a mystery.  “Now, for the first time, a Florida State University team of researchers has uncovered conclusive evidence linking the period’s sea level rise and ocean oxygen depletion to the widespread decimation of marine species.”  The study found that “you don’t necessarily need the entire ocean to be reducing to generate these kind of geochemical signatures and to provide a kill mechanism for this significant extinction event…..Today, like 430 million years ago, sea level is on the rise and ocean oxygen is hemorrhaging at an alarming rate. As parallels continue to emerge between today’s changes and past calamities, peering into the Earth’s distant past could be a critical tool in preparing for the future.”
Carl

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