Climate Letter #1412

Posted on April 25, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Whoops—my apologies.  In some recent letters I was trying to transmit images that only last for one day at their source, and the method didn’t work, so the information has been lost.  I think I have found a better way to preserve such material, which is a necessity for explaining what the Weather Maps can tell us.  Every day there are new examples to look at so I will keep trying, but not today.  This is a good day to pass on some new stories from the web, which happen to be plentiful.

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The world’s forests are still disappearing at an alarming rate (Inside Climate News).  Figures for annual tree cover loss are now in for 2018, one of the four worst years in this century.  Losses of old-growth tropical rainforests are the most troubling, with the main spotlight on Brazil
–Experiments show that lost rainforests can recover naturally if the common practice of annual burning regimes in savanna regions is discontinued.  That’s good news, but it takes about 150 years to complete regrowth.
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A new study has found that climate change is a key factor in how much nitrogen enters the water system (Science Daily).  “What we have shown is that deteriorating lake and coastal water quality is not just about how we develop land and how much fertilizer we use on fields; it’s also about how human action at a global scale is changing rainfall and temperatures.”  The result is an increase in toxic algae blooms or low-oxygen dead zones.
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Torrential rains that result in deadly floods and mudslides are happening in many parts of the world.  This report from Reuters provides an example from South Africa that has taken almost 70 lives in an event of unprecedented severity for the location.
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George Monbiot describes the reasons why the economic system called capitalism is incompatible with the survival of life on Earth (The Guardian).  His logic is quite sound on all counts, but then he has trouble when searching for a viable alternative.  His proposal starts with: “I believe our task is to identify the best proposals from many different thinkers and shape them into a coherent alternative.”   My own belief is that most people are highly attracted to the idea of “green growth” and will cling to it for as long as they possibly can, with no alternative getting serious attention, in spite of the arguments telling about its limitations.
–Here is a link to the weakness of green growth study that Monbiot referred to:
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1412

Climate Letter #1411

Posted on April 24, 2019 by Carl Campbell
For readers who are not up to date, my Climate Letters are now being dedicated more and more to unveiling and interpreting information that can be found on the Weather Maps published by the University of Maine.  I have been studying these maps every day for about four years, and never fail to find something interesting.  The information that’s available is monumental, often hard to find anywhere else.  It should have high value for anyone interested in understanding the many underlying aspects of climate change at the natural level.  The maps are sometimes referred to in websites but otherwise do not get the kind of attention they deserve, and that needs to change.  I am just going to show you things I see, make a few comments, and hope you will find it rewarding.

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Today I want to point out some things about ocean surface temperatures, as found on this chart, which shows current anomalies over a base averaging 34 years:
Ocean surfaces, you may recall, have warmed up much less than land surfaces during the current era of global warming.  They are responsible for a full 70% of the weighting of the average global temperature increase because of their relatively large area.  That’s not all.  This chart shows that the average gain for ocean surfaces in the Northern Hemisphere has been growing quite a bit faster than the Southern in recent decades.  Moreover, as you can see for yourself, the total area of SH oceans is quite a bit larger than that of the NH, and thus the SH oceans have an unduly large influence on the ocean total that so strongly affects the overall global numbers we hear so much about.
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Why is there such a big difference in the warming rates of north and south?  The map provides a good clue, found in all of the blue color that lies around a large majority of the rim of the Antarctic continent.  I believe the well-cooled water is there because it is floating away from a growing amount of ice that has melted from around the edges of the continent.  That water has low salt content along with low temperature, which helps in keeping it at the surface.  (Other charts show a sharp reduction in sea ice extent and volume these days, plus whatever may be coming off the underbellies of glaciers at the coastline.)  The effect even appears to have an influence extending far to the north, approaching the equator.  Greenland is also known for producing a similar effect in the Atlantic, but not as pronounced at this time .
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Some scientists, most notably James Hansen, have written about the possibility that an acceleration of melting of the two major ice sheets could take a large, but temporary, bite out of the global warming trend that is now in place.  We may be observing a small part of that bite already happening, and gaining some benefit from it.  Hansen has also warned that once the melting is done with the sea surface temperatures would come roaring back with a vengeance, and the air above them as well, so there is no room for complacency.
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BuzzFeed News has provided an interactive map (slow-loading) showing how temperatures have changed in locations all over the world, both land and sea, except for the polar regions, plus more information about various sorts of climate change.
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Comments from a leading scientist based on studies that show how rising CO2 levels reduce the nutritional quality of food, affecting animals as well as humans (Fast Company).
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An outline of the challenge facing all of the world’s countries in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, especially highlighting what it means for countries that are hoping to rise out of poverty.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1411

Climate Letter #1410

Posted on April 23, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An opinion story in Sunday’s New York Times that needs to be read, about “Climate’s Troubling Unknown Unknowns.”  The author reminds us of the difficulties of preparing for something we are unable to foresee or imagine, much less predict.  Scientists are in fact constantly being surprised by observations of effects of climate change that were totally unexpected—even today there is a new such report, about Greenland’s ice melt, posted below later on.  Here is the NYT story:   .

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Comment:  My personal efforts right now, as discussed in the last two letters, deal with one of the big unknowns, one that simply cannot be accurately predicted.  It could still get more attention, and we can even draw an outline of the potential for damage in the way of temperature increases.  Putting it in the simplest terms, what is the potential for water vapor, by far the strongest of all greenhouse gases, to greatly increase its penetration of all the territory between the tropics and the poles, with exponential rates of increase?  I think the warming we now see in the Arctic, and with some differences also in the Antarctic, is due to the increased poleward movement of water vapor away from its primary source in the tropical oceans, aided by the removal of obstacles that once held it back and also some new kinds of assistance.  Where will that evolving change be taking us in the future?  What I have been able to conclude so far is as follows, much of it through observations taken from information in the Weather Maps:
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1.  Of the two most important greenhouse gases, CO2 is the “control knob” and water vapor is the “work horse.”  CO2’s greatest impact, when it increases, is the extra heating it gives to equatorial or nearby ocean surface waters, which respond by evaporating more water vapor, in a place where much of it is capable of swiftly rising upward as far as the stratosphere.  Laws governing the diffusion of gases then take over in a normal way, but in the case of water vapor that involves a race against time, as this particular gas is also prone to condensation and soon falling out as precipitation.  It never has time to spread out evenly and completely around the globe the way CO2 does, but rapidly suffers declines in concentration as it searches for the limited number of pathways that favor maximum diffusion.  Whether at the surface or miles higher, winds are commonly encountered that have a potent influence, either to assist or obstruct that effort, and then time runs out.  As a result, water vapor which starts out with a weight of around 60 kilograms per square meter of vertical atmosphere ends up in with a weight as low as one kg or less in the polar regions, endlessly repeated.  Take a quick look at what this looks like during any typical day:
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2.  The greenhouse power of water vapor is such that when it successfully moves into any part of the mid to high latitudes in a quantity large enough to double its concentration in that region, which is not uncommon, it will have the ability to raise the ambient surface temperature by around 8 degrees C.  Since the effect is logarithmic in practice, not linear, a multiple of 4X, which is a double-double, would mean 16 degrees, and so on.  This happens regardless of the starting point.  The closer the region is to the poles, the easier it becomes to get a 4X or more, because so little vapor needs to be added.  The coldest spots in Antarctica can warm up by 30 C or so without even breaking above 1kg, if they start at just 0.1, which I believe to be possible—although no such measurements are actually available.  These numbers are all impressively large, but their durability is generally limited to just days, or even hours, and quick replacement of high levels of the gas is unlikely for regions in all of the upper latitudes.
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3.  In today’s warming world there is an apparent trend for jetstreams to become less powerful, more fragmented and more diversely patterned, thus allowing or even assisting greater movement in the natural diffusion of water vapor gases.  These effects can be observed in the Weather Maps, and they are significant.  Whether or not there are similar changes in surface winds is not so well understood, but there are ample–and growing—quantities of vapor available in the higher levels that are enough to strongly induce changes in the global climate.  If jetstream winds continuing dying, who can really say what that will lead to?  Water vapor intensity in the tropics will surely not change much as a percentage, but farther out there is tremendous leverage in place for doubling and redoubling more and more frequently, adding 8C or more for awhile every time.  The likely result is truly a big unknown, but we have to know about it before we find out the hard way, at least more than we do now.
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Here is the Greenland ice-melt story, from CNN:
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One more Arctic story, based on a new study that covers both the extent and cost of expected changes if we keep letting it slip away:
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A plan that would protect Nature and the climate for $100 billion a year (Vox):
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1410

Climate Letter #1409

Posted on April 22, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Following up on what was said in Friday.s letter, and the new change of emphasis, there is a fine illustration this morning of the kind of thing I look for when checking out “Today’s Weather Maps” on the Climate Reanalyzer website.  If you are reading this today, you can go right to the website—https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2—otherwise, I have posted each special image separately for later viewing with preservation, the first of which for today looks like this:  https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_t2_1-day.png

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What quickly caught my eye this morning was an unusual intrusion of red running from Texas up to Wisconsin, implying extra high temperatures for that  central US region.  Now click on the the Temperature Anomaly link for a comparison (or, later on, hit https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_t2anom_1-day.png)  The brownish- colored overlay makes a reasonably good fit for the region we first saw in red.  (You will need to bear in mind that all of these one-day images reflect events that tend to move around somewhat almost all the time, and the timing behind their recording instruments is generally not synchronized to perfection.)  For one particular example of an anomaly, note how southern Wisconsin has warmed enough to bring its daily average to about 10C (or 18F) above normal, a pretty good jump.
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Now click on Precipitable Water (or hit https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_pwtr_1-day.png) and see how this situation starts to get more interesting.  It’s easy to trace a movement of exceptionally strong PWAT from its likely place of origin in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico through Texas and up to Wisconsin, simply by following the blue streak with dark brown edging. In Wisconsin you can use the nearby color code to interpret a top reading of about 30kg for the measured weight of all the water in a column of one square meter of air from ground level to the top of the atmosphere. That is a little more than double what the reading of around 13 kg would normally be in that location.  The  observed temperature gain of about 10C associated with that amount of increase in PWAT concentration is not unusual—more on that point forthcoming.
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Next, one might like to know why that particular stream of PWAT happened to make that particular journey.  Was there an outside influence?  For example, could a piece of jetstream have made a difference?  Let’s try clicking on that link (or hit https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_ws250-snowc-topo_1-day.png)  The wind in jetstream segments generally wants to flow in an easterly direction, even when it is making loops.  I don’t think the jetstream could have had any influence on PWAT on this occasion.  So what about surface winds?  We can check out that possibility just as easily on the Wind Speed link (or https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_ws10_1-day.png)  Aha, a perfect fit, one that seems to explain everything.  Fast-moving wind across the Gulf first helped to increase its evaporation rate, then served as a carrier for all that extra moisture through Texas and continuing up to Wisconsin, and beyond, in an almost perfect geographical match for the PWAT imagery we saw before.
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Was there any rainfall associated with this movement?  Try the Precipitation link (or https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_prcp-tcld-topo_1-day.png)  There is obviously a great deal of rain in the northern part of the stream, though not everywhere along the way, which is usually how it goes.
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There is one special thing about all this that must not be overlooked.  Precipitable water is formed as pure water vapor, from evaporation, and from that point forward remains almost entirely composed of water vapor—some say 99%–as it spreads through the atmosphere.  Water droplets and icy particles, while having perhaps the greatest share of interest, are just a tiny part.  The main point I want to stress is this: wherever there are elevated amounts of PWAT in place there are equally elevated amounts of water vapor and its powerful greenhouse gas effect, along with the elevated chances of precipitation that are of so much interest to meteorologists.  The two phenomena are at all times joined at the hip.
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Finally, what we have seen today is a real-life example of the power of water vapor as a greenhouse gas.  It is consistent with what I have observed over and over again when studying these maps.  What I have come to believe is that any time the concentration of water vapor (as PWAT) in a particular region is doubled, anywhere and from any level, there is potential for an immediate increase in temperature for that region in the neighborhood of 8 degrees C.  That is a high number, and the implications are considerable.
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Just one web story today—what scientists are saying about climate feedback loops that is worrisome:

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1409

Climate Letter #1408

Posted on April 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
After almost six years of composing these letters I have decided to make a change in the presentation.  I will still be looking over all the new stories every day from a list of good sources, and pick out the ones that have particular interest for reposting, but then spend less time making comments.  That will leave me more time to work on and talk about something else that has growing personal interest and that I think deserves to be given more attention by others who have the same kind of interest in climate study.  That’s because I happen to like dabbling in climate science on my own accord, and have found a gold mine of information that should deserve a wider public audience but practically no one is out there doing the digging.  So why not grab a spade and see how it goes from there?

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The gold mine is a site called Climate Reanalyzer, published every day by the University of Maine, in the form of Today’s Weather Maps, which is my main object of study.  The site also has a long list of other maps and data sets that are geared mostly to the interests of meteorologist/forecasters but altogether there is considerable relevance that goes beyond weather and into all aspects of climate study in general.  Here is their home link:  https://climatereanalyzer.org/.  The Weather Maps segment alone contains an incredible amount of useful information, such that once you become familiar with its content, and can compare what is seen on one map with views given by another one or more, you can start spotting things that have unique interest.
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The maps all change every day, with no archiving readily available, so what I will do in the future is to save particular selected images and bookmark them for unlimited reading.  Meanwhile I would encourage you to open the basic map section as often as possible and give the most relevant ones a good look from different angles.  I have been doing this daily for the last several  years and find it fascinating.  I will soon provide some pointers for reading each map, with a few exceptions, that should help anyone get started efficiently.
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Now, as a heads up, this journey has an underlying purpose.  I am working on a hypothesis that is derived from studying these charts, one that could conceivably create broader interest.  A month ago, in Climate Letters #1384-87, I went off on a tangent that focused mainly on readings from the Precipitable Water map.  It was pretty clumsy, which I have felt bad about, and want to make adjustments, but some of the points just might have been on to something important—that is, with reference to water vapor, which is widely recognized as the strongest of all greenhouse gases.  Scientists don’t talk much about water vapor, or its strength.  They commonly handle it as a feedback from CO2 warming, which is true, and as such they apply a formula intended to add its strength directly to the strength of CO2 when making climate sensitivity projections.  That practice should be questioned, and I will demonstrate some reasons why, almost completely derived from observing the weather maps.
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Here are some picks for today’s stories:
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How David Attenborough became convinced that climate change was real (Carbon Brief):
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Behind the trend of America’s energy consumption, now at a record high (Vox):
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Electric cars could be as affordable as conventional vehicles in just three years (Yale e360):
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About the spread of microplastics everywhere.  “The new study suggests that humans will not only consume microplastics, but also inhale them (EcoWatch):
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A new technology for making environmentally friendly plastics (Phys.Org):

https://phys.org/news/2019-04-green-plastic-production-easy.html

Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1408

Climate Letter #1407

Posted on April 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Climate change is likely to have considerable impact on food safety, placing public health at risk (Food Safety News).  That is the finding of a study published by the World Health Organization.  The numbers of people who currently fall ill or die from food poisoning is currently significant, and are likely to increase by significant amounts with higher temperatures, rainfall changes and deteriorating conditions for safe storage.

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A new study, with a focus in northern India, has found that anthropogenic aerosol impacts have a strong effect on extreme rainfall events much like climate change, but in an opposite direction.  Thus, aerosol reduction, which is badly needed for health reasons, would enable a greater frequency of extreme rainfall events, which have been seen to do great damage in the studied region.  This dilemma and its complications may have much broader implications.
–Hurricane Maria provides an example of the devastating impact of flooding due to record-setting rainfall accentuated by climate change in a part of the world that is not overloaded with air pollution (NPR):
https://www.npr.org/2019/04/17/714098828/climate-change-was-the-engine-that-powered-hurricane-marias-devastating-rains

Researchers have added widely to the knowledge of how oceans naturally transport carbon from the surface to the floor.  Their newly identified and/or calculated pathways close a significant gap.  The ocean sink has a vital role in the sequestering of excess carbon that is absorbed from the atmosphere, and there are concerns about the future stability of the process.  This information will be of help to those who are making studies which have a considerable effect on regular models that make climate predictions.
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There is a new, highly unfavorable report on the state of New Zealand’s environment (The Guardian).  Many serious issues are described, arising from a variety of human activities.  “All the issues in this report are made worse by climate change and that is why this government is so determined to take strong action…..The introduction of climate change legislation, establishing an independent climate change commission to guide emissions reductions, and the just transition to a low emissions economy are vital.”
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A better way to produce refrigeration has been identified.  A group of European researchers have found a way to replace the gases now widely used that cause highly polluting greenhouse effects when they escape into the atmosphere.  The new materials are inexpensive solids that have cooling effects similar to the gases when placed under pressure.  The report makes no statement having reference to energy demand, but preventing the greenhouse gas effect is much to be desired from products that are in such high and increasing demand globally.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1407

Climate Letter #1406

Posted on April 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell

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The rise in the atmospheric CO2 level has not slowed down at all (Reuters).  The commitments that were made under the Paris Agreement in 2015 have had no effect on the trend, which continues to rise at a rate of better than 2 ppm per year.  “…the impending overshoot of CO2 targets is a sign of how far off course the energy system is from the objective set by policymakers; how much warming is now likely if things continue on the present trend; and how much effort will have to be made if policymakers want to avoid this outcome.”  John Kemp, who wrote this story, has presented straight information, not his own opinion.  Opinions can be found (which I endorse) that the Paris Agreement was much too generous to begin with, when setting up its carbon budgets.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-energy-climatechange-kemp/column-climate-change-targets-are-slipping-out-of-reach-idUKKCN1RT0P0

–All the CO2 numbers can be found in charts at the different links on this website:
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How scientists are talking with each other about future expectations for global warming (Science).  This article is mainly about uncertainties that actually exist within the community.  Some scientists tend to like being out in front with new information while others are more inclined to wait for proof of almost 100% certainty.  As one of the latter group put it, “Even so, the model results remain disconcerting, Gettelman says. The planet is already warming faster than humans can cope with, after all. “The scary part is these models might be right…Because that would be pretty devastating.” https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge
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Results from an important new method for measuring Earth’s surface “skin” temperature by satellite.  Data was compiled over fifteen years, from 2003 through 2017, and compared with the results from leading networks of surface-based stations which measure air temperatures above land surfaces blended with bulk data taken from ocean water surfaces.  While the two methods are totally independent from each other the comparative results showed a high level of compatibility, with one exception.  In areas like some polar regions that are hard to reach from land the satellites came up with slightly warmer temperature increases, which may prove to be relevant. “Our work also shows that complementary satellite-based surface temperature analyses serve as an important validation of surface-based estimates. They may point the way to make improvements in surface-based products that can perhaps be extended back many decades.”  This new tool should be of great use for both past and future data improvement.
–The full study has open access and is readable.  Scroll down to see the chart material.
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A completely different satellite test took measurements of Earth’s gravitational field over almost exactly the same fifteen-year time frame.  Highlights have now been announced, showing information that is not particularly dramatic but will be very useful as a base for future reference as this fast-moving century unfolds.
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The perils farmers face as their soils are exposed to extreme floodwaters (The Conversation).  Two professors of soil management describe the nature of the damages, the likelihood of more frequent occurrences and also some ways to improve on current practices, which may be unaffordable for many farmers.  “Until improvements in management practices are resolved, future flooding will likely continue to leave large numbers of Midwest fields vulnerable to producing lower crop yields or no crop at all.”
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From Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, news that lithium-ion batteries can be improved over what they are today, including faster charging rates.  That is good news for EV owners.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1406

Climate Letter #1405

Posted on April 16, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Jared Diamond has written a review of Bill McKibben’s new book about climate change (New York Times).  The review is headlined as, “Striking a Balance Between Fear and Hope on Climate Change,” making it not just a book review but more of an exposition of Diamond’s own approach to the way climate change should be taught to the public.  That alone makes it interesting as a sort of clash between titans, except that McKibben was given no space for rebuttal.  I think Diamond had the wrong perspective.  McKibbin’s role in public discussion has always been the making of a full and proper evaluation of risk and the correct level of response required to meet that risk.  In his case the idea of “balance” has always been about locating the point where risk evaluation is stated in a truly complete and realistic manner but does not morph into exaggeration or unjustified alarmism.  I think he has performed that task masterfully well throughout his career, better than any scientist I can think of, including such figures as Peter Wadhams and James Hansen.  His early stress on the need to keep the CO2 level below 350 ppm has never been disproved.  We are paying the price for not doing so today—most notably in the polar regions—and we have learned that bringing the level back to 350 is in fact all but hopeless, barring some kind of miracle.  Nor will the actions we take today do much to staunch ongoing deterioration for the next 30 to 40 years, thus enclosing the life expectancy of most adults, but proper action could still be of substantial help to younger and later generations.  Regardless of one’s personal angst, it is perfectly all right to give those folks a hand, in a calm and positive sort of way.

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Here is a story on the hopeful side, about a solution to CO2 sequestering using advanced technology (The Guardian).  The lady behind this idea is a realist, and has a good attitude.  “We can’t continue to farm the way we farm any more. It can feed 8 to 10 billion people but 50 years from now, there won’t be any good soil left so you’re just putting the disaster off…..The climate urgency is there. Every week there’s a new climate disaster. How can we get there? We can’t really get there any faster. I don’t know if we can do it, but I want to be part of the solution. I don’t just want to sit around and complain.”
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Persuasive new evidence about the basic cause of Earth’s greatest extinction event.  “Researchers say mercury buried in ancient rock provides the strongest evidence yet that volcanoes caused the biggest mass extinction in the history of the Earth.”  The mercury signature produced by volcanoes is comparable to the iridium deposits released by asteroids.  “The eruptions propelled as much as 3 million cubic kilometers of ash high into the air over this extended period…..In fact, Algeo said, the Siberian Traps eruptions spewed so much material in the air, particularly greenhouse gases, that it warmed the planet by an average of about 10 degrees centigrade.”
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A new study takes the first hard look at the carbon footprint caused by the life cycle of plastics.  Greenhouse gases are emitted at every step along the way, production, use and disposal, in an amount equal to about 5% of annual CO2 emissions by humans, or 1.8 billion tons per year, and demand keeps growing.  The authors also looked at potential solutions, which are all complicated in some way.  “The study’s results underscore just how large an effort is needed to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions…The public really has to understand the magnitude of the challenge that we are facing.”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1405

Climate Letter #1404

Posted on April 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Global temperature update for the month of March.  It was the third warmest March in 140 years of record keeping.  Note that, seasonally, the monthly anomalies over the 1950-1981 base period are greater in winter than in summer, mostly due to bigger shifts that occur in the Arctic in winter, and the fact that the maximum warming associated with El Nino events also occurs during those same months.  Also note how this year’s March anomaly had an unusually big bounce over February compared with recent years.  Will April come back down in a normal way?

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Sea ice in the Bering Sea has suffered drastic reduction (Huffpost).  The Bering Sea, framed by the Aleutian Islands on the south, is technically not part of the Arctic, but is experiencing closely related changes, which have lately accelerated.
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An update on the toll taken by Cyclone Idai, which struck three nations on Africa’s east coast one month ago (Reuters).  The death toll exceeds 1000 and damage more than $2 billion.  Hundreds of thousands or people still require aid.
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An article published by Science journal points to modest interventions that can leverage the gains of climate action.  Three of the authors, writing for The Conversation, discuss some of the key recommendations made by the article, which does not have open access.  “The window to avert catastrophic climate change is closing fast, but with intelligent interventions at sensitive points in the system, we believe success is still possible…..with a smart, strategic approach to unleashing feedback mechanisms and exploiting critical windows of opportunity in systems that are ripe for change, we may just be able to tip the planet onto a post-carbon trajectory.”
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Giles Parkinson reviews the new study about how to completely transform the global energy system (Renew Economy).  (Another review of this important study can be found in the previous Climate Letter.)  Giles, himself an expert in this type of thinking, makes some observations that highlight the thorough nature of the study, and the care that was taken to make it a credible model of what a master plan should do in the way of setting coordinated policies.  The technology is ready if the political will can be gathered.
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So—how can the necessary level of political will actually be generated?  George Monbiot, a columnist for The Guardian, has a set of ideas that go well beyond the ordinary.  “No one is coming to save us. Mass civil disobedience is essential to force a political response….. Had we put as much effort into preventing environmental catastrophe as we’ve spent on making excuses for inaction, we would have solved it by now.”  Strong language, but he may be right.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1403

Posted on April 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A different kind of El Nino is happening in the Pacific.  It is different because the heat build-up is in the center of the ocean, along the equator, rather than close to the coast of Peru which is normally the case.  Most of the directly associated rainfall is also appearing out in the center of the ocean.  This is a weak type of El Nino—probably deserving a different name of its own—and one might suppose it will be unlikely to have much of an effect on global temperature averages for the year.

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A new study has interesting things to say about Earth’s climate history over the last billion years.  The researchers have found new reasons behind the onset and conclusion of major glacial eras, linked to plate tectonics and the geological cycling of atmospheric CO2.  “Earth has a long-running carbon sequestration program…..We know that these processes keep Earth’s climate in balance, but determining what causes shifts between non-glacial and glacial climates on million-year timescales is a long-standing puzzle…..Unfortunately for Earth’s future, the geologic processes that consume CO2 are slow and unable to contend with the massive CO2 emissions that result from the burning of oil, coal and natural gas.”
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Can greenhouse gas emissions be reduced to zero by 2050? (Story by Deutsche Welle)  The Energy Watch Group, working with a Finnish university, has published the first detailed global energy scenario showing how it can be done.  “This energy system costs less than our current one and ensures that global warming remains under 1.5 degrees Celsius…..On average, the renewable energy system would be about two percent cheaper…..without negative emission technologies, fossil fuels with carbon capture, or nuclear power.”  Lots more information in the story.
–The full study can be found at this link:
–George Monbiot’s ideas about natural solutions, previously reported in these letters, are a perfect match for the above scenario as a safe and constructive way to capture carbon from the atmosphere.  Here is an update from an interview in The Conversation:
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New information about the loss of sea ice in the Arctic (Mongabay).  Perhaps the most stunning development is the unprecedented rate of decline, for this time of year, in just the last week or two.
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Battery technology just got a potentially huge new boost (World Scientific).  A Chinese research group claims to have found a solution for the problems that have held back commercialization of zinc-air batteries.  This type of battery “has attracted great attention from researchers due to its high specific energy, high current density, low cost, and environmental friendliness.”  All of these elements compare favorably with the current lithium-ion standard.  No comment was made with respect to a timetable for full development, which will now need to be addressed.  https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-04/ws-nzb041219.php
Carl

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