Climate Letter #1422

Posted on May 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Why action must be taken to protect insects (The Guardian).  “Humanity must save insects, if not for their sake, then for ourselves, a leading entomologist has warned…..Insects are the glue in nature and there is no doubt that both the [numbers] and diversity of insects are declining…..At some stage the whole fabric unravels and then we will really see the consequences.”

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–One outstanding example of where action needs to be taken, based on new scientific evidence that looks quite credible (Yale e360):
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A commentary published by the science journal Nature about how to fix the broken food system.  “Agriculture destroys forests and biodiversity, squanders water and releases one-quarter of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet one-third of food is wasted, 800 million people remain undernourished, 2 billion are deficient in micronutrients, and obesity is on the rise. These figures will worsen as the planet warms, soils degrade and the global population grows, urbanizes and consumes more.”  Current strategies to fix the problem are not working.  The authors go on to make  a case for the kind of strategies they believe are needed.
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Some new figures related to human overconsumption of Earth’s natural resources (Reuters).  This particular report only covered the 28 nations in the EU.  “The EU uses up almost 20 percent of the Earth’s bio-capacity although it comprises only 7 percent of the world population…..In other words, 2.8 planets would be needed if everyone consumed at the rate of the average EU resident. This is well above the world average which is approximately 1.7 planets.”  (Several nations that are not part of the EU have an even higher rate of consumption.  We must always remember that human consumption and demand for energy are basically inseparable.)
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One of the authors of a recent study discusses the state of scientific knowledge concerning past instances of unusual releases of large amounts of carbon dioxide from ocean bodies (The Conversation).  There is knowledge that events having serious consequences have happened in an abrupt manner on many past occasions, but there is much to be learned about their causation.  Many instances are described.  His conclusion:  “Earth’s pre-historic record clearly demonstrates that geologic reservoirs can be destabilized – and that when they are, it leads to rapid increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming. In my view, this represents an important unknown risk that cannot be ignored.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1421

Posted on May 8, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The climate-change contribution to Mississippi River flooding (E&E News).  Experts weigh in on the causes of intense flooding events becoming more frequent.  There are several problems other than climate change, but one common theme is that the failure to make accurate predictions leads to failure when making preparations.

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Much new knowledge has been gained about the nature of El Nino events (The Conversation).  The authors of a new research study discuss their findings, which cover 400 years of previously unknown history, for this article.  It gives us a clear understanding of the two types of El Nino (apart from La Nina), their relative strength and frequency, and the future implications of recent changes, which are worrisome.
–Some background on how this study came about, showing how science can work to find well-hidden answers:
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Advanced models indicate that intense heatwaves will occur back-to-back more frequently (Phys.org).  This is the first study that considers the probability and hardship of compound heatwaves.  “Because of the shorter recovery period between events, the effects of these compound heat waves are often significantly worse than stand-alone events.”  The authors believe that crisis managers will need to take this likelihood into account.
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New information related to Earth’s geological carbon cycle (EurekAlert).  For those who are interested, this study finds some changes in the traditional view of what happens to carbon in subduction zones that plunge into the mantle as crustal plates are shifting.  It helps to explain the ultra-long term decline of carbon in the atmosphere but won’t be of any use in meeting the current crisis.
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The economic benefits of health improvement due to emissions reduction should be recognized as a significant factor in offsetting costs (EurekAlert).  According to a new model, “these co-benefits have traditionally been excluded in the cost-benefit models that estimate how much the world should pay to reduce carbon emissions. When put together, the researchers find immediate net benefits globally from climate policy investments.”  This is especially true for developing regions having the highest amount of air pollution.
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The inspiring story of a married couple in Brazil that restored nearly three square miles of barren land into lush and verdant rainforest (Metro).  After 20 years and a lot of tree-planting everything has returned to its earlier condition.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1421

Climate Letter #1420

Posted on May 7, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Researchers have found evidence of a steady decline in North Atlantic phytoplankton over the last 150 years (Phys.org).  The decline coincides with steadily rising surface temperatures.  The method used in making the determination is, in my mind, very credible, including the observed weakening of AMOC circulation.  (There were no conclusions drawn having implications for other ocean bodies, which were not included in the study.)  The finding is important because phytoplankton form the basis of the food chain upon which almost all marine animal species depend for survival.

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A new study explains how human hunting activity significantly impairs the storage of carbon in forest areas (EurekAlert).  “Many wildlife species play a key role in dispersing the seeds of tropical trees…..The loss of wildlife therefore affects the survival of these tree species…..Forest fauna are also involved in many other ecological processes, including pollination, germination, plant regeneration and growth, and biogeochemical cycles. Empirical studies across the tropics have shown that defaunation (i.e., the human-induced extinction of wildlife) can have cascading effects on forest structure and dynamics.”
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Climate change and wildfires combine to create a vicious cycle, where each augments the conditions that stimulate more of the other.  This report was written for the Union of Concerned Scientists, which believes we can break the cycle using known methods for treating both sides, but need to soon get started.
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“We are losing the web of life”:  why the global nature crisis is as dangerous as climate change.  This lengthy article was published in the award-winning journal Unearthed, a project of Greenpeace UK.  It is consistent with the UN report on the loss of biodiversity that was reviewed here yesterday, providing many insights and illustrations that offer proof of point.
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A review of the UN report by Inside Climate News.  This review has excellent coverage of what is surely one of the most profound reports ever published about today’s existential crisis in the natural world.
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An opinion contributor to The Hill makes a strong case in favor of major soil remediation as a vital component for  climate action to be effective.  Current agricultural practices remove carbon from the soil.  Putting it back would be helpful to both plant growth and the climate.  “Since soil is like a sponge, more carbon goes back into the soil and less carbon goes into the atmosphere. The better the quality of soil health, the better the quality of plant health. The healthier the plant, the more carbon it absorbs — reducing the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, resulting in less climate change impact.”  Pretty simple, but strong public policies are needed to encourage movement on a broad scale in the faming community.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1419

Posted on May 6, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The major UN report on loss of biodiversity—over 1500 pages long—has been released.  It is not yet available for reading, and summarizing is not easy because there is so much material, a virtual encyclopedia.  I will provide you with several links, each useful in one way or another, starting with this general introduction from The Guardian:

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Here is the media release from the IPBES, the association that created the report.  It briefly describes what the authors believe to be the most notable findings of their work, one of which says, “Negative trends in nature will continue to 2050 and beyond in all of the policy scenarios explored in the Report, except those that include transformative change.”  Climate change is listed among the things requiring transformation.
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For a really thorough summary of what is in the report, this one published by EurekAlert! would be hard to beat.  EurekAlert! is the news-release distribution platform operated by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
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This review from Phys.org is especially useful because it includes a graph (from a separate source) showing how the rate of biodiversity loss is distributed over all parts of the Earth, by comparison with intact ecosystems.  The central part of North America is one of the worst hot spots.
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Some comments on sea surface temperature anomaly.  There is an interesting cool-type anomaly to be spotted on this map in the Bay of Bengal east of India.  This is the normal outcome of a severe hurricane, or cyclone in this case, after it draws huge amounts of energy from ocean surface waters through the effects of massive wind-driven evaporation.  It will take some time before normal warming recovers.  Cyclone Nafi’s formation occurred far to the south in the Indian Ocean over a period of many days, leaving a long track of cool water that is still visible.  The Southern Hemisphere is full of cool anomalies right now, leaving a total net of just plus 0.1C over the base period.  Some of these are due to prolonged windstorms and some to the rising amount of fresh meltwater along the coast of Antarctica.  Ocean water that is relatively undisturbed, like the large patch in the south Atlantic, has temperature increases that often run several tenths more than 1.0C over the base, more in line with the average gains that are found on nearby continental land.
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The latest report on the damage done by Cyclone Fani (Reuters).  With 33 known dead, “Hundreds of thousands of people were left homeless…..The death toll could have been much greater if not for the massive evacuation in the days before the storm made landfall.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1418

Posted on May 3, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A vitally important way to reduce fossil fuel usage is being overlooked (Utility Dive).  A reduction in total energy consumption is certainly not happening, and may be impossible.  Replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy is happening, but the pace is still too slow.  There is a third way, also happening, but far below its maximum immediate potential—energy efficiency.  “In fact, the International Energy Agency has said energy efficiency improvements — just deploying existing cost-effective technologies — could be 40% of the solution for meeting international climate targets.”  Governments need to provide effective incentives for this to happen.

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Another preview of the coming major report on what the loss of biodiversity means to the future of humanity (The Guardian).  “The 1,800-page study will show people living today, as well as wildlife and future generations, are at risk unless urgent action is taken to reverse the loss of plants, insects and other creatures on which humanity depends for food, pollination, clean water and a stable climate.”
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A UN report covers hardship in four Central American countries due to severe weather impacts on agriculture (Thomson Reuters Foundation).  “More than one million people across Central America need food aid after droughts combined with heavy rains in the past year destroyed harvests…..As many as four in every five families in the Dry Corridor have had to sell animals and farming equipment to buy food in the past year.”  The same region was hard hit by drought from 2014 through mid-2016.
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A new study has found that, over a given region in the Midwest, extreme rainfall events do as much damage to crops as extreme heat and drought (Yale e360).  Climate models are predicting more frequent and intense precipitation events in coming decades, such that adjustments to crop insurance become likely.  (No surprise after this year!)
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Making a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy will have considerable geopolitical consequences (Nature).  Some groups of thinkers have been imagining the various alternatives that could unfold, no one of which looks much more likely than the others.  This review provides a glimpse into how complicated this journey will be.  Compressing the process into just two or three decades, as currently being prescribed, increases the chances of mishap, that could have been avoided by getting started when the early warnings were being issued some thirty years ago.
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The Climate Reanalyzer is back in business after three days of server errors.  The image that was saved in last Monday’s letter can now be followed up, showing that the big Arctic heatwave is still there, with temperature anomalies still around 18C in places.  If you are catching this today (Friday) go to the basic website (https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom ) right away and check out some of the links with other maps, especially Precipitable Water, which is essentially water vapor.  At long as large volumes of that gas keep pouring into the region its highly magnifying greenhouse effect will remain.
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The six numbers here at the bottom all have their own special significance, which I will discuss later on. They all represent today’s changes over a base period that averages almost exactly three decades.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1417

Posted on May 2, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Researchers find a close relationship between global temperature increases and unusually strong drought conditions since the year 1900 (Carbon Brief).  The information was largely gathered through interpretation gained from the study of tree rings.  “Tree rings give us a picture of conditions during the summer growing season. If it’s a wet year with plenty of soil moisture, trees grow more. If it’s a dry year, they grow less. So the thickness of individual tree rings measures that year’s soil moisture.”  There was a warming hiatus between 1950-1975 and again during the early part of this century, both of which show up in the charted data.  The work is impressive because no previous research has been able to make such a close connection between drought and human activity.

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The drought situation is again worsening in Somalia, potentially triggering a major humanitarian crisis (Reliefweb).  Weak seasonal rains “have led to an increase in the number of people designated as “food insecure” in Somalia since October of last year. OCHA warned that a deterioration into crisis conditions is expected in many pastoral and agro-pastoral areas during the month of May.”  In this case the crisis is aggravated by “funding shortfalls that may hamper a full implementation of the planned food assistance.”
–Comment:  If drought severity around the world keeps growing, so will the related funding requirements.  This story has bad news not often heard about funding problems, but there is also news that reforms are on the way:
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Microplastic debris in the oceans is having an effect on the ability of the oceans to serve most effectively as a carbon sink (Daily Mail).  The research, performed at a university in Ireland that is not well-known, is really quite interesting and the results are plausible, though difficult to measure in meaningful terms that would have an effect on climate models.  That may account for the relative lack of attention given to the study.
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What scientists are now saying about geoengineering in a form that would cool the planet by dimming the energy received from the sun (Daily Beast).  Of all the plans that are out there, this is the one that is most viable and most likely to be given a try as warming progresses and does ever-more unacceptable damage.  There are well-known drawbacks associated with the procedure plus the potential for risks completely unknown, yet not much is being spent on research.  “What I would hope the world will avoid is a situation where we continue to emit greenhouse gases, don’t do much carbon dioxide removal—because it’s expensive and takes a long time to put in place—and suddenly in 10 to 20 years from now we find ourselves in a place where we’re on a dead end street and the only option is solar radiation modification.”  That kind of sums it up.
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Elizabeth Kolbert interviews Bill McKibben (Yale e360).  These are two of the clearest voices speaking from outside the climate science establishment.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1416

Posted on May 1, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Note:  The Climate Reanalyzer site I often refer to is having a server problem.  It should be back soon.

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Atmospheric CO2 update.  We are just two or three weeks away from the annual seasonal peak, which last year came in a bit below 412 ppm.  At the end of April we are already past 414, with another quarter or half PPM to go, for a pace of annual increase that is higher than normal for this century and very disappointing.  For the full story, scroll down to the lower chart and also check out the other links on this website.  When is the urgently needed downturn going to begin?
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Coral reefs move toward the poles in order to avoid warmer ocean water (Newsweek).  A new study has taken a close look at how they have done so in the past and are doing the same thing again today, with difficulty.  “On the century scale, our models show that if we don’t take action to reduce global warming, we could lose most of the suitable habitats in equatorial and tropical regions…..the rate of change we see today is quite unprecedented in geological record.”
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In the US, the Southwest is getting hammered by rising temperatures (Arizona Public Media).  “Tucson….has 25 more days above 100 degrees than it did in 1970. The heat has most directly affected our most vulnerable citizens…..parts of Southern California and Arizona have seen a 4-degree (F) temperature increase since 1901.”  The latter figure, equal to 2.2C, is twice as great as the global average.  Alaska, while not as hot in an absolute sense, is experiencing the same kind of gains.
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A new book offers a complete primer about drought (Phys.org).  This post features an interview with the author, a foremost expert in the science and history of drought.  “All these changes we’re observing are completely in line with what the models are telling us should happen. We expect these impacts to get even worse with continued warming in the future.”
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Deforestation causes a significant increase in nearby land surface temperatures, with a direct effect on certain species of animals (Yale Climate Connections).   This story is based on several studies and interviews with their authors.  It deals with serious climatic effects of deforestation that have nothing to do with carbon dioxide, but are of similar nature and more immediate to appear on local scenes, especially in the tropics.  “Climate change is really bad and deforestation at a local scale makes it even worse…..The lizards told me that.”
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Madagascar is rapidly losing its unique wildlife (Science Daily).  While not specifically about climate change, this is the story of an island that represents a paradigm and advance warning for the entire planet.  Through reckless behavior, one new species has broken all the rules of sustainable ecology that were in effect for tens to hundreds of millions of years.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1415

Posted on April 30, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New research covers the multiple consequences of permafrost lands that thaw in an abrupt manner (EurekAlert).  “This abrupt thaw is changing forested ecosystems to thaw lakes and wetlands, resulting in a wholesale transformation of the landscape that not only impacts carbon feedbacks to climate but is also altering wildlife habitat and damaging infrastructure…..It’s happening faster than anyone predicted. We show that abrupt permafrost thawing affects less than 20 per cent of the permafrost region, but carbon emissions from this relatively small region have the potential to double the climate feedback associated with permafrost thawing.”

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New information shows a possible weakness in the oceans’ carbon sink as the waters warm (Phys.org).  “A new study suggests that CO2 regeneration may become faster in many regions of the world as the oceans warm with changing climate. This, in turn, may reduce the deep oceans’ ability to keep carbon locked up.”  This story has much educational material related to the storage of oxygen in the oceans and its full meaning.
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Studies show a strong correlation between drought and human conflict in Southeast Asia (Circle of Blue).  “Southeast Asia has many dry years ahead…..As droughts degrade the natural environment, people find themselves competing for increasingly scarce land and water resources…..The report notes that 80 percent of local conflicts that occurred in Southeast Asia between 1981 and 2001 took place in areas that had endured drought at some point…..As climate change alters and intensifies weather patterns, Southeast Asia will likely become increasingly exposed to drought, and in turn, the “vicious circle” of violence and environmental shock.”
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Part of Antarctica’s largest ice shelf, the Ross, is melting much more rapidly than previously thought (Science Daily).  Surrounding conditions make it likely that melt rates will continue to increase in the future, weakening its ability to hold back the movement of glaciers that enable sea level to rise.  “The observations we made at the front of the ice shelf have direct implications for many large glaciers that flow into the ice shelf, some as far as 900 km away.”
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Paleoclimate science—new findings about the consequences of India’s collision with Asia (EurekAlert).  Scientists have identified an important effect that was completely unexpected:  “the oxygen in the world’s oceans increased, altering the conditions for life.”  The rise in oxygen proved beneficial to supplies of a nitrogen isotope that is required by marine organisms.  (Be sure to click on the image of the collision event.)
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Why Hurricane Harvey intensified immediately before landfall (Phys.org).  The explanation has to do with the way ocean water near the shore is heated, in this case all the way to the bottom.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1415

Climate Letter #1414

Posted on April 29, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Severe flooding in Canada (Eco Watch).  “This flooding is happening here in Quebec, it’s happening in Ontario, it’s happening in New Brunswick. And really sadly, what we thought was one-in-100-year floods are now happening every five years, in this case, every two years.”

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Farmers in the US Midwest are counting the cost of recent ‘bomb cyclone’ flooding (The Guardian).  There are multiple problems to face, some of them catastrophic.  “Some farmers may not be able to plant their crop this year because the land is either too wet or still underwater.”  And more rain is on the way.
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Preview of a coming report on the loss of biodiversity, in the most comprehensive assessment ever published (BBC News).  “It will likely warn that we are on the brink of a rapid acceleration of the global rate of loss of species. And it will say the threat these losses pose – and the challenge that presents – is on a par with climate change.”  Climate change will be featured as a contributor to the loss.
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In a separate story from BBC News, this same report will describe how human activities are doing potentially catastrophic damage to Earth’s productive soils.  “There’s three times more carbon in the soil than in the atmosphere – but that carbon’s being released by deforestation and poor farming…..This is fueling climate change – and compromising our attempts to feed a growing world population.”
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There are two significant weather events happening right now in the Arctic region.  As depicted in Today’s Weather Maps, one can be seen over the frozen Arctic Ocean in the shape of an arrowhead, where the temperature anomaly in the center part is getting close to 20C.  Greenland is experiencing a comparable warmup, and what is truly remarkable is the fact that these two events are the product of two completely separate weather systems, arriving from similar types of developments that have occurred at the same time but on opposite sides of the globe.
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If you have a half hour or so to spare, this particular happening will give you a great opportunity to explore the whole picture of what is going on, as found on other links in the same website—https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom.  There are closely associated phenomena to be found in many different indicators on many different maps, and they are not hard to spot if you look closely.  Start with Precitable Water, which for me is the most interesting since it is the carrier of water vapor, the greenhouse gas that constitutes the primary work horse of temperature changes on a short-term basis.  (CO2 will always be primary over the long term, but its changes are too slow to have any effect at all from day to day.)  Surface winds and jetstream winds both have a strong influence over the pathways that enable large amounts of water vapor to move from warm ocean sources all the way into the Arctic, and these should be studied.  For a more detailed look at surface winds, in close to real time, there is another website called “Windy” that has unbeatable information—https://www.windy.com/?69.178,-8.965,4

The above map also shows several cold anomalies that form when air masses containing reduced amounts of water vapor are present.  That diagonal streak across northern Canada was mainly produced by cold and very dry surface air blowing in from the north.  Something of similar nature is happening in Siberia, where horizontal jetstream positioning appears to have considerable influence.  Don’t forget to check out the broad global maps below the round sectionals.  Altogether, there is endless information to be had, endlessly fascinating.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1414

Climate Letter #1413

Posted on April 26, 2019 by Carl Campbell
There are a large number of new studies that need reporting today:

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Antarctic glaciers should slide toward the sea less rapidly than feared (Phys.org).  New research explains why it could take a few hundred extra years, which is good news, but the end result remains the same.  “One of the main things we learned was that as grounded ice retreats inland, the bedrock under it lifts up elastically…..It’s like a truck traveling downhill that encounters speed bumps in the road…..The truck will slow down a bit but will ultimately continue down the hill…..just as the ice sheet will continue to melt and sea level will continue to rise.”
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Extreme ocean winds and waves have become more common over the past three decades (Newsweek).  Scientists believe climate change is the cause, making the upward trend likely to continue.  Among other things, this is likely to enhance the damage done by coastal flooding during major storm events.
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Global warming is doing more harm to life in the oceans than to species living on land (Inside Climate News).  “Sea creatures, especially those that live in shallower water near the coasts, are much more vulnerable to global warming than land animals, new research shows. The scientists found that local populations of marine animals are disappearing at double the rate of land-based species.”  The reasons and the consequences are frightening.
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Scientists have evidence of the impact of ocean acidification on marine life (Phys.org).  Human societies are also endangered in many ways.  “The chemistry of this rapid change in surface waters is understood, yet there is uncertainty about its effects on society which is what we are trying to overcome in this study.”
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New information about the way carbon is pumped down to ocean depths, and why the process may be weakening (EurekAlert).  The role of small fish, which are endangered, is much more important than thought, enough to change climate models covering this important sink.
–A different study tells of the discovery that tiny microbes also have a role in sequestering carbon in the ocean, moving it to deep subduction zones and eventual permanent burial in Earth’s mantle.  The effect helps to cool the climate, but only on geological timescales.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1413