Climate Letter #1432

Posted on May 23, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New information about the vulnerability of permafrost to higher temperatures (Phys.org).  Research in the very high Arctic has shown that even a small amount of extra warming in a brief summer season leads to major changes in unvegetated landforms, a surprise to scientists.  “… this research clearly demonstrates the complex nature of ice-rich permafrost systems and climate-permafrost interaction…..it raises concerns about the over simplification of some studies that generalize about the links between global warming and permafrost degradation.”

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A comprehensive review of mountain glacier studies points to massive future melting (Phys.org).  The review covered mass changes predicted for over 200,000 glaciers, not including Greenland and Antarctica.  “Glaciers worldwide are projected to lose anywhere from 18% to 36% of their mass by 2100, resulting in almost 10 inches of sea level rise.”  (That suggests the potential for another 20-30 inches worth of melting from this source after 2100.)
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A new study, taking a hard look, fails to find any purely natural causes behind the long-term trend of Earth’s rising temperatures since 1850 (ScienceDaily).  None of the natural cooling effects that have been observed can be shown to have continued for more than a relatively short period of time.  That leaves factors related to human activity responsible for virtually the entire increase to date.
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Climate change is altering the composition of the world’s plankton communities (Yale e360).  A study of many species of zooplankton shows that they have moved poleward by hundreds of miles because of higher water temperatures.  Species that feed on them are often not able to easily adapt, thus disturbing large parts of the entire marine food web.
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The latest advances in wind power technology (VOX).  Turbines keep getting bigger, stronger and more efficient, seemingly without limit.  And that means much cheaper electricity not far ahead, “cheap enough to absolutely crush all competitors.”
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How people are affected by contrasting feelings of hope and doubt with respect to climate change (Frontiers in Communication).  This lengthy and scholarly article takes a deep dive into the psychology of communication about a truly difficult subject.  It was written by people involved in public polling for Yale and George Mason universities.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1431

Posted on May 22, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A good look at all of the ecosystem services provided by healthy soil, including the storage of carbon (The Conversation).  The author is a professor who grew up in Ireland.  Soil has a key role in enabling the sustainability of life on this planet—if we treat it right.

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Spending large sums on US infrastructure can incorporate climate benefits (Newsweek).  This was written by Michael Mann, a prominent climate scientist who believes we have no more time to waste on finding solutions.  “An infrastructure package, on its own, won’t go nearly far enough toward making the economy-wide changes necessary to stave off what’s coming if we don’t act. But could be a very good first step in the right direction, at a time when we’re otherwise running headlong towards disaster.”
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Large uncertainties in predicting future climate changes are tied to understanding variations in the temperature of tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters (Phys.org).  A new study has made this determination by looking at different models that can plug in a variety of different assumptions but lack good data to back them up.  “The available observation data from the Pacific are in many areas only patchy, therefore, the results of the various simulations show such a strong spread…..significantly more and better observation data are needed in order to improve the quality of climate predictions.”
Comment:  The tropical Pacific Ocean provides a major proportion of the water vapor that rises to the upper atmosphere and then tries to spread out over higher latitudes, where it has the most warming effect, as an alternative to just raining out.  The green colors on the chart below show where the strongest sources of evaporation are located, basically matching the warmest surface temperatures.  There is much more room for green to show up in the eastern tropical Pacific and likewise in the Atlantic, but climate models have difficulty putting together all the changes that are required in addition to the expected provision of more heat accumulation due to increases in the CO2 level.  There is a big difference between 50-60 kilograms, or more, of evaporated water (per square meter) and just 30 kg from nearby surfaces.  It all has a relatively short life once airborne, and it all faces a variety of obstacles on the pathways of diffusion, as plainly evident on this or any other example of these daily charts.
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Inline image
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Also worth noting, the patch of bright blue covering many southeastern states in the US is being translated into a number of record high temperatures for this date.  Vapor that has penetrated the Arctic area north of Alaska is also having a pronounced warming effect.
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An extremely dangerous wildfire is burning in northern Alberta (CBC).  There is not much that can be done about it.  The picture is amazing.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1430

Posted on May 21, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new approach to estimating sea level rise is getting much attention (BBC News).  The results of a new study of an essentially conservative type has excited interest because it makes a convincing case that IPCC estimates have been much too conservative and will need to be revised.  BBC has a clear review:

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—Inside Climate News looks at the story from the standpoint of how city planners along the coasts will need to make adjustments to their policies based on having a better understanding of the risks they face:
–Two of the authors of the study, writing for The Conversation, provide their own explanation of how the study was made and why it is significant.  Based on these facts, there is simply no way the IPCC can either belittle or improve upon the way this study handled a difficult issue.
–Extra comment:  I believe these estimates are destined to become the new conservative standard for sea level projections, but do not quite cancel out the potential for even higher estimates that appear now and then from individual experts who talk about eight feet or more being possible by 2100.  Of a yet more critical nature, in yesterday’s Climate Letter there was an abundance of high-level discussion about what the planet would be like, and living conditions for human populations, if we raise the average temperature “only” four degrees (C) by 2100, not all of five.  With five there might be more to worry about than a mere six or seven feet of sea level rise on coasts that have already been abandoned.
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The term, “climate change” is now being replaced by “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” in some places, and not any too soon.  David Spratt, the author of Climate Code Red,  presents a rundown of antecedents, beginning with the work of Lester Brown back in 2003, advocating “climate action on the scope of the WWII mobilization.”  The idea of an emergency has become more timely today because there is so much real evidence of unwanted change actually being felt.
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A scientist explains why allowing ocean waters to warm rapidly involves extraordinary risks that need to be avoided (The Conversation).  The author has studied past instances where large quantities of pure carbon dioxide have been released in an abrupt manner from deep reservoirs, including some on the ocean floor, causing global temperatures to increase in a substantial way.  His conclusion:  “Earth’s pre-historic record clearly demonstrates that geologic reservoirs can be destabilized – and that when they are, it leads to rapid increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming. In my view, this represents an important unknown risk that cannot be ignored.”
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People who say they are worried about climate change and want something done to keep it from happening don’t always vote in favor of measures that would help (Axios).  It happened again this past weekend in Australia.  The next test will come in Canada later this year, and the US will have its turn in 2020.
–The New York Times has published an editorial with an analysis of the Australian vote:
–And finally, the perspective of a native Australian from Queensland (The Guardian):
Carl

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Climate Letter #1429

Posted on May 20, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A unique observation related to the global circulation of ocean water (Phys.org).  Massive amounts of warm Pacific Ocean water regularly pass through narrow straits into the Indian Ocean and thence to the Atlantic, but not always.  New findings show how this is sometimes blocked, and why future changes may have widespread consequences.

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–From the study, a view of where the bottleneck appears:
Inline image
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A close look at what the planet will be like if warmed by a total of 4C (The Guardian).  The author of this rather disturbing piece, Gaia Vince, is a British environmental journalist who is thoroughly well-informed on what today’s climate scientists are saying and thinking.  “Experts agree that global heating of 4C by 2100 is a real possibility. The effects of such a rise will be extreme and require a drastic shift in the way we live.”  If you remember the book, Six Degrees, by Mark Lynas, this article can serve as a brief and proper update.
–Repeat of a post from Climate Letter #1406, April 17, about the current views of many scientists as reported in a leading journal:
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A lack of rain in North Korea poses a threat of famine (circle of blue).  It’s a chronic problem for this unfortunate land, compounded by central mismanagement.  “If precipitation doesn’t increase, rainfall totals will likely be the lowest ever recorded in North Korea for January through May…..an estimated 10.1 million people, about 40 percent of the population, are facing severe food insecurity.”
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Earthworms are moving northward, releasing large quantities of carbon from the forest floor (New York Times).  “The world’s boreal forests have been largely earthworm-free since the last Ice Age. But as invaders arrive and burrow into the leaf litter, they free up carbon and may accelerate climate change.”  There is much uncertainty over the total impact, but scientists have found enough evidence to make them worried.
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Corporate America is becoming more active in support of stronger climate policies (Axios).  That should finally put some real pressure on Republicans to begin steering a new course.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1428

Posted on May 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Fifth consecutive day of CO2 readings well above 415 ppm.  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html  What this means is that the peak in the annual seasonal curve, now about one week away, is unlikely to be less than 415, placing it more than three parts above the peak of one year ago.  Each of these peaks, by my interpretation, can be found by clicking on Interactive Plots, lower chart, then drawing an imaginary center line through the trail of daily readings that go back two years.  After rising steadily for eight months that line always stalls out and makes a sharp reversal in late May, ready for an accelerated four-month downtrend.

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     Human activity these days can directly account for about two ppm of annual CO2 increase, doing so in a fairly consistent way.  When a number higher than that shows up at the peak the extra gases that have been established in the atmosphere have to be accounted for in some other manner, generally implying causes of a natural sort.  A major El Nino is known for its high natural CO2 input, but the El Nino of the past twelve months was far below the ‘major’ threshold.  Another possible candidate would be in the form of a reduction in the ‘carbon sink’ that normally offsets around half of the extra emissions that humans are adding.  Scientists have found reasons to worry about the permanence of that high amount of offset, a possibility that must now come under close scrutiny.  Once there is a decline in the sink, what are the chances of a comeback?  There are also worries about increases in CO2 emissions from soils where Arctic permafrost is seen to be thawing, and other suspects of that type.
     The main point of concern about all this is that, in our effort to bring about reductions in emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human activities, which are not advancing too well, there is not a bit of room for accommodation of more inputs produced by Nature itself on a regular basis.  Many of those inputs would in fact be due to feedbacks caused by the warming from human activity, which means Nature should not be blamed for using up whatever is left of our so-called carbon budget.
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A new study has much to say about the constructive role of plants as a carbon sink (Science Daily).  This story ties in with the above comments, explaining the origin of an important part of the carbon sink and how it could decline.  “Their modelling and analysis revealed that, since the beginning of the industrial era, photosynthesis has increased in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2…..While increased CO2 has allowed an increase in photosynthesis and global leaf area, the researchers warn that further climate change — with increasing frequency of events such as heat waves, droughts and storms — has the potential to significantly stress terrestrial vegetation and decrease production.”  Maybe that is what we are seeing today?
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A report from Tuvalu, an island home to 11,000 persons, now sinking (The Guardian).  Time is running short, and nobody wants to leave.  A sad but beautiful story with many illustrations.
–Another group of remote tropical islands has a different type of problem, the dimensions of which are truly unbelievable:
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A growing number of US voters have made climate change a top concern in making decisions about who to vote for (Reuters).  A new poll places the total at 38%, dominated by Democrats.  Pressure is growing on Democratic primary candidates to state positions on solutions that would have real potency in a critical situation, which few have done so far, and will be interesting to watch.
–Here is what a common Republican solution will probably look like in 2020.  It will appeal to many voters because it is pain-free and assumes there are no time limits to worry about.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1428

Climate Letter #1427

Posted on May 16, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Climate change is spurring conflict in the Lake Chad region (Thomson Reuters).  “The region bordering Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon has been hit by a decade-long Islamist insurgency, uprooting 2.5 million people in one of the world’s most neglected crises.….Irregular rains and rising temperatures have spurred on the conflict by causing food shortages and frustration, while fighting has made it harder for people to cope with these natural changes.”  ( The weather maps consistently show current daily temperature highs around 110-115F for this region.)

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The Asian summer monsoon rains have been weakening over the last 80 years (Phys.org).  A new study based on tree ring analysis sees this decline as unprecedented over the last 448 years, resulting in regional droughts and hardships for nearly half of the world’s population.  “The new research finds man-made atmospheric pollutants are likely the reason for the decline.”  This information creates an extra reason for making sharp cuts in the well-known sources of all that pollution.
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Commentary on new research covering the future of tropical cyclones and hurricanes (Mongabay).  Many interesting details from expert reviewers, plus a fine map that shows all the tropical storm tracks over a 20-year period and who gets hit most often on the coasts where they land.
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An analysis of how rainfall events in the US have intensified since 1950 (Climate Central).  This work was based on data from 244 weather stations, making charts from each city interactively available.  Of special interest is the rapid rate of growth in the total number of storms yielding three or more inches.
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New information about the rate of thinning of the West Antarctic ice sheet (The Guardian).  “The West Antarctic ice sheet was stable in 1992 but up to a quarter of its expanse is now thinning…..The current losses are doubling every decade…and sea level rise are now running at the extreme end of projections made just a few years ago.”  That is an extraordinary development, undoubtedly related to the warming of ocean waters caused by the increase in greenhouse gas solely due to human activity.  There is no sign of any slowdown in this warming trend, which is also beginning to affect the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet.
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The CO2 level has been over 415 ppm for four days now, and that is worrisome.  We’ll see what tomorrow brings and make a comment.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1427

Climate Letter #1426

Posted on May 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An expert analysis of global trends in low-carbon investment (Carbon Brief).  This post has many key charts that illustrate the trends plus commentary from the IEA, highlighting those places where spending is inadequate.

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https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-low-carbon-spending-must-more-than-double-to-meet-climate-goals?

Research shows that when CO2 levels are high trees grow faster but do not live as long (Phys.org).  As a result there may be no net increase in carbon storage within a particular forest region.  “We wanted to test the ‘live fast, die young’ hypothesis, and we’ve found that for trees in cold climates, it appears to be true.”  (Forests may still be able to expand into new areas when climate warms, especially in the far north, and store more carbon that way.)
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A new study finds that undersides of Antarctic glaciers are exposed to year-around melting by warm ocean waters (Phys.org).  This new information could mean that current models are underestimating the total melt-rate for the Totten Glacier and others like it.  “The new measurements confirm that this part of East Antarctica is exposed to warm ocean waters that can drive rapid melt, with the potential to make a large contribution to future sea level rise.”

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-boosts-ocean-antarctic-ice-sheet.html

There is growing understanding about cold deep water formation and circulation in the world’s oceans (EurekAlert).  Abrupt changes in climate have now been confirmed as a viable prospect.  From the lead author, “As recently discovered by scientists…this global deep-water circulation has substantially weakened during the last century. If further weakening happened in the future, there may be unexpectedly broad implications not only on our atmospheric and ocean systems but also on Earth’s ecological systems and our society.”
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Plastic is a major contributor to climate change (Environmental Health News).  The damage from plastic is not limited to waste that is carelessly discarded.  “Each step in the life of a piece of plastic — production, transportation and managing waste — uses fossil fuels and emits greenhouse gases…..In 2019, producing and incinerating plastic will emit an estimated 850 million metric tons of greenhouse gases…..By 2050, the annual greenhouse gas emissions from plastics will reach an estimated 2.8 gigatons per year – the equivalent of about 615 coal plants.”  Much more information in this story.

https://www.ehn.org/plastic-causes-climate-change-2637105746.html

Many new heat records set in northeastern Russia (Earther).  One town hit 91F, another reached 4o degrees (F) above normal, a very rare number.  That was last week.  Today the area is still in the grip of anomalies as high as 20F.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1426

Climate Letter #1425

Posted on May 14, 2019 by Carl Campbell
“Wettest 12 Months in U.S. History” (Weather Underground)  No surprise there.  The charts and tables in the story are worth a good look, showing the reality of an unwanted effect of climate change.  The long-term trend indicates that many more new records are likely to be coming but fortunately still stretched out with drier intervals in between.

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How today’s flooding is affecting the Mississippi River (E&E News).  “Experts say the new floods come faster and more furiously than their 20th-century counterparts. They last longer and are less predictable. And they cause more property damage…..Climate change…acts like an accelerant on flood conditions.”
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Mauna Loa has recorded its first day with CO2 above 415 (EcoWatch).  This has gotten some headlines, but don’t forget that May is the seasonally peak month and we will soon be seeing a sharp decline until September.  Also, Mauna Loa is subject to shifts in incoming winds from widely separated sources and thus gets an abundance of numbers that deviate sharply from the main trendline.  By the end of the month that line will have completed a pivot and the peak should be clearly defined, enough so for comparing with previous peaks.  In any case, the advance is much too great, well above 2 ppm for the last 12 months, signifying no progress at all in curbing emissions.
–This page has two charts that pretty well summarize the whole story.  I only wish the lower one could be extended back another year or two for a view of more short-term trendline details.
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The amount of investment funding needed to meet climate goals is far from being met (Phys.org).  The IEA has produced new data that is clearly disappointing.  “Money going into new upstream oil and gas projects—exploration, drilling and infrastructure—rose four percent in 2018, while investment in new coal sources went up by two percent, the first increase in that sector since 2012…..At the same time, investment in new renewable power of all kinds dipped by about two percent.”  Governments are being blamed because of their lack of commitment to climate action that would otherwise show better support for commercial or industrial investors.
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Artificial intelligence will have a positive effect on future energy consumption and conversion to renewables (DW).  This story has numerous examples of places where otherwise unlikely gains are already being achieved, with many more to come.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1425

Climate Letter #1424

Posted on May 13, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Excessive rainfall is bad news for algae blooms (The Blade).  High-level drainage from many of today’s watersheds introduces extraordinary amounts of phosphorus into lakes, provoking the blooms.  For Western Lake Erie, “Scientists believe this could be another big year for the noxious green goop with all of the rain that’s hit local watersheds this spring.”

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Solutions are available for changes in farming practices that will help to increase food productivity and at the same time mitigate the main cause of climate change (The Hill).  “To accomplish this, we need a rapid transition from chemical- and energy-intensive industrial monoculture production to organic, diversified and regenerative practices that build healthy soils, which in turn sequester more carbon.”  That should also make a difference for those lakes that now suffer from algae blooms.
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/442355-green-new-deal-for-farming-address-climate-crisis-and-revitalize
–Here is another good article about the advantages, methods and policy requirements of carbon farming from a Canadian professor, writing for The Conversation:
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Extra comment:  A Green New Deal for farmers is certainly a federal policy opportunity that Democratic politicians should wake up to, and not just presidential candidates.  Make a big point of carving out a chunk of the federal budget big enough to do everything possible to help farmers make the changes that will work, to the benefit of everyone.  How could anyone be opposed to that idea, even in Trump country?
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An environmental philosopher makes a strong case for agricultural reform (Ecologist).  His language may be a bit fancy but the message is clear:  “Industrialised food production has ignored symbiosis and has endangered the vitality of all life in the process. In order to become an ethical eater of food, we need to identify the key aspects of industrial agriculture that have violated symbiosis and the biodiversity dependent on it.”
https://theecologist.org/2019/may/13/eating-symbiocene
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Eastern Siberia is having a vicious fire season (The Siberian Times).  It is the result of dry and windy weather combined with unusually high temperatures.
–Another set of pictures from two days later show how much it worsened:
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The concentration of methane in the atmosphere keeps rising, and scientists are not sure of the reason (Undark).  This article provides a complete analysis of the problem, with a good review of all the known sources of this powerful greenhouse gas.  Most of these, unlike CO2, are in quantities impossible to estimate with any degree of confidence, much less measure.  “In the end, many researchers believe that tropical wetlands may be the only source big and dynamic enough to explain both the magnitude and suddenness of the methane spike…..And if this is true, that’s important, because it may be an indication that there is a climate feedback going on between the natural terrestrial biosphere and warming.”   The recent acceleration makes this situation all the more uncomfortable.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1424

Climate Letter #1423

Posted on May 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Why so many tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean recently?  (The Conversation)  This article by a professor of physical geography has interesting information about the various factors that combine to cause these violent storms, starting with a foundation dependent on the level of sea surface temperatures.

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A great introduction to an obscure weather-maker, the Madden-Julian oscillation (ABC News Australia). The MJO has an important role in the development of tropical cyclone and monsoon activity, and probably more, as it travels around the world in the manner of a slow-moving wave.  Its effects seem to depend on how it interacts with other regional factors, and are thus unpredictable until a time of close arrival.
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About the worldwide subsidies to fossil fuels, and other hidden costs (The Atlantic).  There is a fresh set of numbers available, and as usual everything is riled up by differences in the way people define what is meant by the word “subsidy.”  As far as I can see, direct payouts by governments are genuine subsidies, fully controllable, and a good case can be made for stopping them.  The hidden costs in the form of various damages are not readily controllable.  The public voluntarily accepts them, along with monetary purchase prices, as part of the cost of getting the benefits.  There is a moral problem here because the hidden costs are shared roughly equally by all individuals across the globe, regardless of the level of benefits received through consumption, while the biggest consumers gain a considerable edge when totaling up all the benefits they receive at no extra expense.  Indeed, it is a well-known fact that some impoverished persons or societies gain no benefits at all because they are unable to consume, yet end up losing much more than average in the way of living damages.  A stiff universal carbon tax, with proceeds redistributed equally—and globally—to all individuals, would help to address that problem, and some others too.
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What are the alternatives to endless growth? (The Guardian).  This story provides no answers.  It simply suggests that people—meaning everyone—should spend more time thinking about how they would conduct themselves in a world lacking the constant motivation to “get ahead” in a materialistic sense.  There are answers to be found, perhaps surprisingly satisfying.
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How is biodiversity affected by land-use practices that add carbon to soils and biomass?  A thorough study has been made over a wide range of locations and practices, with the result showing that co-benefits can almost always be expected.  “The biodiversity impacts of measures to increase carbon were positive in eleven of the twelve landscapes. Our results indicate that a random land-use change that increases biodiversity is also likely to increase carbon and vice versa.”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1423