Climate Letter #1442

Something different today.  With all the talk about the CO2 level being up more than 3 ppm at its seasonal peak (May) in Mauna Loa, while reaching its highest point in the history of our species, ( https://www.ecowatch.com/noaa-carbon-dioxide-levels-2638714201.html) I want to offer a slightly different perspective on how to digest the news.

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It’s a fact that the gas is very evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere, but not perfectly so, and that is because of large variations in the timing and location of all the different emissions and uptake processes around the world.  The result at any one moment in time depends on where you do the measuring, and just where the gases come from via the long-distance transport of prevailing winds, or changes of such, that reach the point of measurement.  Mauna Loa is not necessarily the best place in the world for accuracy in measuring short-term trends because there is a bias in the way it collects winds, mostly from directions up and down the coastline of North and Central America, but not always.
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There is really just one spot on the planet that has practically no bias at all in either seasonality or wind direction, and that is the South Pole.  Luckily there is a weather station located at the South Pole, operated by NOAA, having all the standard equipment for making accurate measurements.  Here is a picture of what this station has recorded over the past ten years:
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Now compare that with a similar set of measurements from Mauna Loa, using the same method of collection by means of flask sampling. Notice the totally different monthly timing of seasonal peaks and valleys, and also the deep difference in gradients between them:

For an even more extreme gradient effect resulting from seasonality take a look at Barrow, Alaska, also operated by NOAA.  Other stations across the Far North display big swings much like those of Barrow.  Generally, seasonality is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere than in the South because of the much greater extent of land masses where plants are growing and decaying over the course of each year.
Finally, let’s have a view from American Samoa, which is located out in the Pacific like Mauna Loa, and about the same distance from the Equator, except South. In this case seasonality is not very strong, yet not nearly as weak as at the South Pole.

So what do all of these charts have in common? In each case the rising trendline is almost perfectly linear, in spite of a few wiggles and that little bit of extra bulge in 2016 because of El Nino. The total increase in concentration for ten years is almost exactly the same, 23 ppm. Until there is hard evidence to the contrary, or until all the dust has settled, that means 2.3 ppm is still the current annual rate of increase. There is most certainly no evidence of a decline, which was supposed to emerge from the Paris Agreement and is thus disappointing, nor should we see reason to panic over a runaway to the upside.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1441

A summary of five major changes affecting the oceans and the life they support (EcoWatch).  All of these have been operating for decades and continuously growing.  They are all difficult to curtail, and the need for total curtailment in every case is inescapable.

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–Bits of plastic are now found everywhere, including live human bodies:
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The World Health Organization sees clear evidence of a link between climate change and global deterioration of human health and welfare (Ecologist).  “With climate change comes rising food and water insecurity, higher food prices, loss of income and livelihood opportunities, negative health effects, and population displacement, threatening to undo the global progress in sustainable development that has been made in the last decades…..climate change further widens the global inequality gap that persist today…..The health benefits far outweigh the costs of meeting climate change goals.”
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Wildfire smoke is emerging as one of the greatest hazards to human health (Outside).  This story argues that the suppression of natural wildfires over the last century makes the problem worse than it should be, and now there is not much we can do about it.  The effects of increasing temperature and dryness from climate change are basically accelerating the inevitable final outcome.
–Minnesota is one of the places feeling the effects of far-off wildfires (MPR news):
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Climate science:  How dust blown off the barren land left by receding glaciers adds significantly to global warming (GlacierHub).  “Glaciated clouds – those containing ice particles rather than liquid droplets – are unable to reflect as much light as clouds with liquid water. The dust from receding glaciers, the researchers found, is especially adept at glaciating clouds. In other words, clouds formed by glacier dust allow greater amounts of heat to enter Earth’s atmosphere.”  This sequential process was a major factor during the warmup phase of the ancient ice ages, and now the same effect is again coming into play.
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The importance of phytoplankton in regulating the temperature of ocean surface water can now be observed (Massive Science).  Phytoplankton, in the oceans convert solar energy into organic matter through the process of photosynthesis just like plants do on land.  That helps to cool the water, but when water is unusually warm phytoplankton populations decline and their cooling effect is reduced.  Scientists have found a clever way to observe this happening and are working to build the method into their models.  “And when CDOM was factored into a sea surface temperature model, it increased the amplitude of extreme temperatures, meaning the hottest months become even hotter and the coldest months even colder. These changes resembled observed trends in recent summers and winters.”  (I believe the amplification of seasonal warming by greenhouse gas warming poses an extra level of threat from this phenomenon.)
Carl

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Climate Letter 1440

Climate change is driving rapid shifts between high and low water levels on the Great Lakes (The Conversation).  Two professors from the University of Michigan describe the unusual series of current events and offer several explanations.  As with almost everything else that is weather-related and written about these days, ” The bigger point is that past conditions around the Great Lakes are not a reliable basis for decision-making that will carry into the future.”

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A new study discusses the unique role of the entire food system in the effort to control climate change (Phys.org).  This subject involves the main sources of human-activated emissions that are beyond the burning of fossil fuels, and the numbers are significant.  Progress toward reduction to date has been slow, but there are many opportunities available for that to change.  Here the lead author talks about the recommendations of the study, showing clarity and good sense.
–You can see the full report at this link:
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Will the average American need to make sacrifices in helping to mitigate climate change?  A writer for The New Republic believes it will be a necessity, in large part because of letting the problem get out of hand due to inaction.  Her call is of the type that resembles full wartime mobilization, but “likely won’t require the same type of sacrifice Americans made in the 1940s.  But it will require a similar level of commitment and a shared understanding that we’re all in this fight together. If we fail in this regard—if we kick the can down the road—the struggle will only get harder.”
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A Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz, also envisions the economics of climate action in terms like those of war mobilization, but on more of a macro scale (The Guardian).  As he puts it, “The mobilization efforts of the second world war transformed our society……There is absolutely no reason the innovative and green economy of the 21st century has to follow the economic and social models of the 20th-century manufacturing economy based on fossil fuels, just as there was no reason that that economy had to follow the economic and social models of the agrarian and rural economies of earlier centuries.”
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A view from Australia describing the existential risks of climate change.  The authors of this policy paper have studied, written and lectured about the dangers of climate change for decades, in much the same manner as Bill McKibbin has done in the US.  They generally base their predictions on references taken directly from the writings of well-known climate scientists.  This paper has been publicized over the last few days by a number of prominent media outlets.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1439

Scientists find substantial links between sea ice variation in Hudson Bay and summer heatwaves in the lower US 48 states (Phys.org).  The statistical relationship is plainly evident.  The physical nature of the relationship, while less obvious, can be explained in a reasonable way through well-known mechanisms of atmospheric science.  This is a remarkable piece of information that helps to connect some of the far-flung dots of climate change.

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A summary overview of the consequences of adding an extraordinary amount of CO2 to Earth’s atmosphere (Skeptical Science).  This is why CO2 is called the ‘control knob’ of Earth’s climate.  Between 180 and 300 ppm there existed a long series of ice ages for a million years and more.  Above 300 everything changes, as we are now finding out.  The final changes that can be expected are not yet fully in place, nor have any species now living learned how to adapt to those changes.  Moreover, we are not yet finished with moving the control knob to an even more powerful position.  Don’t be surprised by the magnitude of changes that remain to be seen.
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A new report covers the effects of climate change on human health (Life Sciences).  The report was created by a consortium of 27 leading scientific academies in Europe.  It “presents strong evidence of the increasing and diverse risk posed to human health and life by the global increase in temperature.”  Recommendations are made with respect to the way we deal with these risks and also to the need for action that would avert even greater levels of distress in the future.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20190604/Climate-change-adversely-affects-human-health-says-new-report.aspx
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A critique of policies based on the concept of ‘green growth’ (The Ecologist).  “Green growth has emerged as the dominant narrative for tackling contemporary environmental problems. Its supporters include the likes of the UN, OECD, national governments, businesses and even NGOs…..These groups believe that sustainability can be achieved through efficiency, technology and market-led environmental action. Green growth suggests we really can have our cake and eat it – both growing the economy and protecting the planet…..But when it comes to tackling the most pressing environmental problems such as climate breakdown, species extinction or resource depletion, green growth might weaken rather than strengthen progress.”  The journal goes on to explain why.  I believe their arguments are well-founded, and that the underlying elements of motivation are difficult to overcome.
https://theecologist.org/2019/jun/03/green-growth-wont-save-planet
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Along similar lines of thought, it is argued that nationalism and the way modern societies are structured impede the kind of cooperative effort need to combat climate change (Pacific Standard).  The collapse of Easter Island, as described by Jared Diamond, is used as an instructive example.  This essay has several other references, all of them thought-provoking. Are the suggested reforms even remotely possible?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1438

Extreme temperatures in India; weak monsoon season expected (Phys.org).  “Temperatures passed 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in northern India as an unrelenting heatwave triggered warnings of water shortages and heatstroke…..More than 40 percent of India faces drought this year…..The annual monsoon—which normally brings much needed rain to South Asia—is running a week behind schedule.”

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Jason Box explains why Greenland is likely to experience an extremely high melt rate this year.  Box is a veteran Arctic scientist—and has very convincing knowledge of this critical situation.  This short video was posted on Peter Sinclair’s website.
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A new study of likely changes in precipitation in different kinds of regions (IOPscience).  Globally, the total amount of precipitation is seen to increase in regions of the humid type but not in arid regions, certainly a disappointing conclusion for the latter. On the other hand, arid regions, just like humid ones, are more likely than not to have increases in the number of extreme types of precipitation events that are the cause of problems from flooding and soil erosion.
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A different study confirms a steady increase in frequency of torrential downpours since 1964 (Phys.org).  This study examined the daily records from each of 100,000 global weather stations.over a fifty-year period.  The frequency of events increased decade by decade, which would be virtually impossible under strictly natural circumstances and must therefore be attributed to global warming.
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Why the latest advances in flow batteries are so important (Phys.org).  In CL#1435 there was a story about technological advances made at Harvard University.  Now we are getting news that a German company has dramatically reduced the costs of manufacturing flow batteries and actually has a family of specialty products on the market that are highly competitive with existing lithium/ion batteries.  Comparable storage units have essentially the same price but are said to last twice as long.  The company is now looking to scale up the size of applications and make still further reductions in manufacturing costs.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1437

Current developments with respect to deforestation of the Brazilian rainforest (Bloomberg).  Due to persistent heavy rainfall the rate has actually declined in the few months since Bolsonaro’s election, but the full story, as revealed in some detail in this report, is much more sobering.  The conclusion:  “…May data is flashing a yellow sign…..The months of June, July and August, when weather is usually drier and deforestation rates peak, “will be crucial.”

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Soil conservation and the preservation of trees go hand in hand (The Conversation).  The authors of this piece are mainly interested in methods that effectively control the problems of soil erosion due to extreme climate events.  Having well-placed trees in the landscape clearly has an important role.  They offer historical evidence from thousands of years ago.
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Mass mortality events affecting bird populations in the Bering Sea are directly linked to climate change (Inside Climate News).  A new study has been published by a research team that has witnessed six such events since 2014.  Much warmer waters are causing significant decimation of the entire food chain.  “As more warm water flushes north, the pool of intensely cold water that sits on the Bering shelf is shrinking and moving north…..That change in the amount of the cold pool is resetting a lot of the Bering Sea ecosystem on the bottom…..The temperature shifts are causing changes from tiny species like zooplankton, the bugs of the ocean, on up to the forage fish that would provide food for puffins.”
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It is not just climate change—plastic pollution in the world’s oceans is having a similar effect on the base of the marine food web (Phys.org).  In laboratory experiments, researchers have studied the effects of chemicals leached from common plastics into seawater.  “They then measured how living in such water affected the most abundant photosynthesising organism on Earth – Prochlorococcus. As well as being a critical foundation of the oceanic food chain, they produce 10% of the world’s oxygen…..the chemical-contaminated seawater severely reduced the bacteria’s rate of growth and oxygen production. In most cases, bacteria populations actually declined.”  Future tests will be made in the open seas.
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David Roberts makes a case for not accepting natural gas as a suitable energy alternative (VOX).  It may be cleaner than coal (or may not) but that is not the reason.  He lists five other reasons that are based on hard facts and prompts political candidates to better communicate this information to the public.  “…supporting continued buildout of natural gas assets in the US is not “moderate” climate policy, nor a “middle ground”…..It is an admission of failure, an acknowledgment that the US will not do its part to avert 2 degrees of warming.”
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There may be a way for plants to leave more carbon in the soil when they decompose (Dezeen).  The Salk Institute has made progress in developing one such plant, and hopes to be able to expand the technique to others.  “According to Salk, this plant-based approach to climate change has the potential to achieve a 20 to 46 per cent reduction in the excess carbon dioxide emissions produced each year by human activity.”  This long-shot ‘geoengineering’ project is one that I can gladly recommend pursuing.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1436

Fred Pearce discusses the role of geoengineering as a solution to climate change (Yale e360).  No one can do this better than Fred, who covers all of the bases with up-to-date information.  He even covers the one kind of thing that has no drawbacks and would assuredly work well but is not exactly geoengineering, that being the combination of reforestation and better soil management.  The high-tech crowd is still focused on various pipe dreams, no one of which stands out as a likely winner at this point.

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Also from Yale e360, Elizabeth Kolbert interviews the ‘climate change comes first’ presidential candidate, Jay Inslee.  Inslee knows the situation very well and has an abundance of common sense but could possibly be more creative about promoting the merits of a carbon tax.  This man will probably not make it to the nomination, but would be a great asset if given a leading role in the cabinet of any new administration.
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Is there a connection between tornadoes and climate change?  Inside Climate News has interviewed a number of prominent scientists for their insights on a subject of considerable current interest.  Lots of ideas and good information here but some differences over the future outlook.  A warmer world could actually cause tornadoes to be weaker, or possibly less frequent, because of the way specific components required for their formation must set up—very different from hurricanes.
–Peter Sinclair’s website has a similar type of scientific commentary, with added variations:
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A historic delay in the spring planting season for farmers in the Midwest (EcoWatch).  The ruinous flooding is clearly attributed to climate change, and that is not a good sign for the future.  Also, higher food prices are already taking effect in futures markets, which may help some farmers while hurting consumers everywhere.
–By contrast, farmers in central and southern England are desperate for rain:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1435

A new study considers the domino effect on certain species caused by the extinctions of other species, those that are primarily the result of climate change (Futurity).  The authors made observations showing that “Some species with a very low likelihood of climate-related extinction according to the traditional model are at high risk of extinction due to their dependencies.”  This is especially true in the Mediterranean region—“With such a high fraction of species and their interactions being driven extinct, the remaining network is more fragile and therefore prone to co-extinction cascades.”

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Current flooding of the Mississippi River is compared with the ‘Great Flood’ of 1927 (USA Today).  The earlier event set many amazing standards that look unbreakable but the current version is even worse in some locations.
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A set of reasons for why we have just one year to start taking serious action on climate change (CNN).  The author, a vice president of World Resources Institute, explains why the slogan, ’12 years to save the Earth,’ can only make sense if a massive undertaking begins no later than next year.  The Paris Agreement of 2015 is set for a major update when national leaders reassemble in New York next year to state the full commitments they are ready to proceed with.
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New research has an improved understanding of jet stream configuration (Phys.org).  Some of the findings of a new model are rather obscure and difficult to communicate, but there is one exception:  “In addition, with the new model the researchers can also more closely analyze the causes of the meandering jet stream.  Our study shows that the changes in the jet stream are at least partly due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. If the ice cover continues to dwindle, we believe that both the frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events previously observed in the middle latitudes will increase…..our findings confirm that the more frequently occurring cold phases in winter in the U.S., Europe and Asia are by no means a contradiction to global warming.”
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A major step forward for flow battery technology (ScienceDaily). Harvard University researchers have solved the one problem that held back commercial development of this low-cost form of stationary energy storage.  “Such devices are needed to allow the electric grid to absorb increasing amounts of green but variable renewable generation.”  Wind and solar facilities should soon become yet more competitive as a result.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1434

Phasing out nuclear power plants is causing difficulties for equally clean replacement (Axios).  The plants are producing much of the world’s power but have a strictly limited lifetime, which cannot always be extended and only at a high cost.  Wind and solar are not yet ready to make up the full difference, leaving new natural gas plants or extending inefficient old coal burners as the most likely options.  The urgency of the nuclear situation creates an extra burden for emission control policies.

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A new study concludes that meeting the Paris climate targets is not possible without strong curtailment of economic growth (EurekAlert).  “Researchers state that emissions reductions in line with 2C are only feasible if global GDP growth slows to less than 0.5%. Likewise, they indicate that reductions for 1.5C are only feasible in a degrowth scenario.”  In other words, the whole idea of ‘green growth’ needs to be dismissed, which to all appearances is politically impossible.
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The commercial fishing industry provides a perfect example of how the concept of limits to growth applies to resources found in the natural world (Phys.org).  “What we have seen over the last 65 years is more and more fishing vessels chasing fewer fish.”  And with much lower productivity from the amount of expended effort.
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New research shows how ocean acidification adds to the dangers threatening coral reefs (Phys.org).  The study investigated the effects of acidification on calcifying fluids that enable corals to survive.  The underlying cause, excessive CO2 in the atmosphere, is of course the same as that which causes the higher water temperatures that also kills off corals.
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Aerosols in the atmosphere are known to have significant effects on climate, but accurately measuring those effects is frustrating for scientists (EOS).  This story provides a good introduction to what the different aerosols are like, where they come from, and why everything is so complicated.  Their regular properties can change because of the way they mix and interact when aloft.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1433

Why the US East Coast should expect hurricanes of rising intensity (Phys.org).  New research has taken a close look at the way atmospheric wind shear is changing as a result of the temperature increases due to greenhouse gas.  The changes that are occurring tend to reduce what is now a natural suppression of hurricane energy intensity, thus leading toward increases in intensity that could be quite costly.  This effect comes in addition to the higher power being generated via increases in the temperature of ocean surface water.

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Forest management and logging practices need to be better synchronized (Mongabay).  This story provides a great deal of timely information about a factor of critical importance for meeting the targets of climate mitigation.  Logging can continue—quite likely at a reduced rate—but current practices regarding tree regrowth must be changed in a substantial way and closely regulated.
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Many US businesses are feeling the impact of climate change in the form of severe weather conditions (Axios).  While farming is an obvious extreme case, many other businesses have found their costs going up while revenues are weakening.  (Moreover, everyone is likely to soon be hit with considerably higher insurance costs for property losses.)
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A clever way of describing Earth’s carbon cycle—in action, courtesy of Peter Sinclair.  The numbers represent billions of tons of pure carbon.  Note that the atmosphere holds only a tiny share of the total, an amount that is really not too difficult to double by means of aggressively tapping into other reservoirs that are larger, like fossil fuels and the biosphere.
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Not much room for uncertainty can be found in NASA’s temperature records since 1880 (Phys.org).  A group of scientists has tested and compared all of the accepted methods of measurement for errors and inconsistencies.  The GISTEMP records produced by a partnership of NASA and NOAA are found to deserve the high confidence they have gained for accuracy.  The margin of error for the entire 140 years is only +/- 0.15C.
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A new finding about the early history of our planet (ScienceDaily)  This should interest anyone who has wondered about where the moon came from, and all about its importance to the life that followed.
Carl

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