Climate Letter #1452

Posted on June 21, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What would it mean if all the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean were to disappear?  Three scientists have calculated an answer, in process of publication.  From the Abstract, “Assuming constant cloudiness, we calculate a global radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 relative to the 1979 baseline state. This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years.”  (I believe an additional 0.71 W/m2 in Earth’s radiative balance is equal to about one-half degree of extra warming, a permanent feedback.)

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From Ireland, a team of researchers has found a way to dramatically improve the performance of batteries of all sizes (The Irish Times).  The batteries would be more compact, quicker to charge, and have 250% more energy density than any other battery on the market.  Their method largely uses the same materials as regular lithium batteries, but in a more effective way.  The airline industry is potentially a major market—“large battery-powered aircraft could become feasible once the batteries can store 400 watts per hour. Our technology is at 480 watts.”
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More strong summer dust storms as a result of climate change (Arizona Republic).  These may not be the worst things that will happen, but they are both nasty and amazing.  For those interested, this story has first-rate coverage.
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Massive programs aimed at rebuilding forests are underway in many parts of the world (The Guardian).  “Forests can stop runaway global heating, encourage rainfall, guarantee clean water, reduce air pollution, and provide livelihoods for local people and reserves for rare wildlife…..reforestation and other ecological restoration capture carbon and tackle the climate crisis. Such solutions could provide 37% of the greenhouse gas mitigation required to provide a good chance of stabilising global heating below the critical 2C threshold.”  Groups led by women have proven to be the most effective, and more are needed.
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Toward a better understanding of the ideology behind economic growth (Ecologist).  The author of this article gives us a short history of the development and globalization of the seemingly unstoppable force that propels climate change.  He tends to put more blame on the producing class than on consumers, something that is surely worthy of debate, or at least thinking about, truly fundamental for anyone trying to find answers to the problem.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1451

Posted on June 20, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Climate change may disturb the benefits that trees gain from the activity of microorganisms that live around their root systems (EurekAlert).  More than 200 scientists contributed to this comprehensive study of how trees gain nutrition with the help of other species that are in some way sensitive to temperature, moisture, and soil acidity.  Trees now growing in cooler parts of the planet are especially viewed as subject to impairment.

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A new study clarifies the rate of melting of Himalayan glaciers (Phys.org).  The researchers were able to gain sufficient information from the interpretation of satellite photos dating back to the 1970s.  The loss of ice each year since 2000 from 650 glaciers has doubled the amount of yearly losses between 1975 and 2000.  This result matches the expectations for melting from temperature changes that are known to have occurred.  Seasonal water runoff that 800 million people depend on is currently 1.6 times higher than it would be under stable conditions, and subject to more changes in the future.
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A distinguished Harvard professor, speaking at the University of Chicago, gave his recommendations for how to prevent catastrophic climate change (Forbes).  “Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.”  He says we have only five years remaining to accomplish this effort, much tighter than the figures in most of the schedules we hear about.
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An insider describes the forces involved in the destruction of tropical rainforests for the purpose of creating palm oil plantations (Yale e360).  An environmental lawyer had to leave Liberia because of threats to his life.  What he has seen is repeated in many other places, and hard to stop when so much money is involved.
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Updated information about the rate of melting predicted for Greenland’s ice sheet (EurekAlert).  “Capturing the changing flow and speed of outlet glacier melt makes the updated ice sheet model more accurate than previous models…..As ocean waters have warmed over the past 20 years, they have melted the floating ice that shielded the outlet glaciers from their rising temperatures. As a result, the outlet glaciers flow faster, melt and get thinner, with the lowering surface of the ice sheet exposing new ice to warm air and melting as well.”  Models all agree that everything that will happen by the year 3000 still depends on the amount of warming generated by human activity during just the next few decades.
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An overview of the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, explained in 12 charts (VOX).  Fossil fuels still provide 79% of global total energy consumption of all sectors.  According to David Roberts, “The public seems to have the impression that while things are bad, they are finally accelerating toward something better. It’s not true. Collectively, we haven’t even succeeded in reversing direction yet. Despite all the progress described below, we’re still struggling to get ahold of the emergency brake.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1450

Posted on June 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Global warming increases microbial activity, leading to undesirable feedback loops (Inside Climate News).  Microbes are a crucial element supporting all life as we know it.  This article by a first-rate journalist covers many of the ways their behavior is changing as the climate warms, and what scientists are saying about it.  “Maintaining and preserving these incredible communities has to be our highest priority if we intend to maintain the existence that we want on this planet.”

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Coral bleaching causes permanent changes in fish communities (EurekAlert).  “Publishing in the journal Global Change Biology, researchers show clear evidence that coral bleaching back in 1998 has led to changes in biodiversity and permanent shifts in the range of fish species coexisting on coral reefs, which still remain in place today.”  Even when reefs themselves completely recover fish populations decades later do not return to their pre-bleaching condition.
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A tiny country in Africa has seen its climate destroyed in just thirty years (The Telegraph).  Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, was accepting refugees in 1990 who described it as a land of paradise.  Now there is practically no water and the land has turned into desert, unable to sustain life, while the country has become just half a degree hotter over 30 years.  Neighboring lands have the same problem.
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Not far away, a much larger country, Iran, seen as highly vulnerable to desertification (Tehran Times).  According to the accepted definition, “land is desertified when it can no longer support the same plant growth it had in the past, and the change is permanent on a human time scale.”  Iran has about 400,000 square miles of useful land (100 million hectares) now exposed to that probability.
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Reservoirs for India’s sixth largest city have all run dry (CNN).  “Chennai is the latest casualty of a countrywide drought that has left 600 million people dealing with high to extreme water shortages.”  Tanker delivery services and groundwater that are available fall far short of filling the gap.  Erratic monsoon rains are largely responsible for the problem.
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Jellyfish thrive on warming ocean water (Fast Company).  Along with being a great nuisance for human activity these ancient critters are “fundamentally dismantling natural food chains, both in their own ecosystems and in foreign ones as they invade new territories and find snug second homes.”  Scientists are looking for more ways to harvest and use them as a resource.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1449

Posted on June 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The Sundarbans—a primary source of future climate refugees (The Atlantic).  This low-lying coastal region, mostly a part of Bangladesh, is the home of 13 million people who are seeing their houses and livelihoods destroyed by rising seas and storms.  This heartbreaking story is well told.

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India’s main source of food supply is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions (Financial Express).  Rice plantings account for three-quarters of the nation’s grain supply, in spite of the crop’s relatively poor ability to withstand harsh weather.  Alternative grains that are more adaptable are available, but for now the picture is one of high risk of food falling short for a growing population.
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A recent  study found that deforestation in the tropics is a direct cause of higher temperatures in the local region (Mongabay).  The study found that forestation had the opposite effect in those same regions, giving considerable credibility to the theories behind causation.  Cambodia was not a subject of the study, but would provide an ideal test site because of its extraordinarily high rate of deforestation accompanied by extreme temperature increases now being felt across Southeast Asia.  From the study, “higher deforestation rates were found to create even more intense warming, with 50 percent rates of forest cover loss in tropical areas leading to warming of 0.83 to 1.33 degrees Celsius.”  That is a frightening amount, worthy of deep concern.
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The CO2 budget used in setting the goals of the Paris Agreement were tied to an assumption that the concentration of methane gas would be in decline (Phys.org).  Instead of falling, methane levels have accelerated upward, and scientists are unsure of the reasons.  A new study goes over the various possibilities, and as the lead author puts it, “the most alarming possibilities are the ones we have little control over. Rising temperatures could be triggering wetlands to release more methane, and changes in atmospheric chemistry could be slowing the rate at which methane breaks down.”
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New estimates for global population growth (NBC News).  From the current count of 7.7 billion people, the numbers could rise to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 by 2100, which is down a bit from the 11.2 billion estimate made two years ago.  As widely understood, “the more people we have and the more resources we use, the harder it will be to cope with the risks and impacts of climate change.”
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Wildfires in Siberia have an amazing impact on the terrain as permafrost melts (The Siberian Times).  Be sure to scroll down to see pictures showing ‘The Mouth of Hell,’ which has been growing every year because of melting even while out of the reach of any flames.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1448

Posted on June 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New models predict more extremes of both drought and flooding in Africa because of climate change (The Guardian).  This would disrupt food production in the face of fast-growing populations.  “Our research suggests that extreme bouts of rainfall are likely to be seven or eight times more frequent than they are today…..At the other end of the precipitation spectrum, the study revealed there would be an increase in occasions when severe drought would occur for up to 10 days in the midst of the most critical part of a region’s growing season…..western and central areas will suffer the worst impacts of weather disruptions.”

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Right now, a record number of people are facing a critical lack of food in South Sudan (Reliefweb).  From UN agencies, “an estimated 6.96 million South Sudanese will face acute levels of food insecurity or worse by the end of July…..61 percent of the population.”  Record low stocks from the poor 2018 harvest have been followed by the delayed onset of 2019 seasonal rains.
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Another unusually big melt season is predicted for Greenland this year, and is already underway (CNN).  Jason Box pointed out that this year had unusual early-season melt days in April, and that the melt season was “happening about three weeks earlier than average, and earlier than the record-setting melt year of 2012.”  The post contains an image that vividly shows an astonishing jump in the extent of this early melting.
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Electric power generation across the globe is “depressingly” unchanged from 20 years ago (The Guardian).  “Three flat lines show an unwavering breakdown of the global electricity mix: last year coal made up 38%, non-fossil fuels reached 36% and the rest of the world’s power was generated by gas and oil. This is the same as in 1998.”  One thing this tells us is that all of the growth to date of renewable solar and wind energy has done little more than to replace the decline of nuclear energy as a source of power.  Total demand for energy is largely driven by developing countries in Asia, “where the appetite for electricity is growing rapidly, and renewable energy is not increasing anything like fast enough to keep coal at bay.”  (Last year the US also had unusually high demand for power, said to be weather-related.)
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Coal mining still has the full support of a major branch of Australian government (Rolling Stone).  Jeff Goodell has a biting commentary on the Adani mining project in Queensland, now  fully permitted.  “The Carmichael mine is still a long way from a done deal…..But the fact that the project even got this far is a sign of the greed and stupidity that makes the climate crisis so hard to tackle.”  The future of the Great Barrier Reef is among the things at stake.
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Polls are showing that US voters from both parties would support the “Carbon Dividends Solution” to climate change.  The GOP pollster Frank Luntz came up with this information, along with other interesting bits, as reported by Peter Sinclair.  This is basically the same idea that James Hansen has been promoting for many years, with high confidence that it would quickly accomplish real emission cuts if pursued aggressively.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1447

Posted on June 14, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Alaska has had its warmest spring on record, causing multiple unwanted changes (The Guardian).  One of the highlights is evidence of a speedup in permafrost thawing, close to where people live and travel.

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Permafrost is also thawing more rapidly in many remote parts of the Arctic.  Peter Sinclair draws attention to a new report published in Nature, with comments from several of its authors.  They describe their research into processes that were previously not well-known, which could add as much as an extra 50% to the total amount of greenhouse gas that is likely to be released by future thawing.  “We estimate that abrupt permafrost thawing in lowland lakes and wetlands, together with that in upland hills, could release between 60 billion and 100 billion tonnes of carbon by 2300. This is in addition to the 200 billion tonnes of carbon expected to be released in other regions that will thaw gradually.”  Moreover, because this abrupt type of thawing is heavily weighted by release of super-potent methane gas, “the impacts of thawing permafrost on Earth’s climate could be twice that expected from current models.”
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How global warming is stimulating toxic algae blooms in lakes around New York state (Syracuse.com).  The surface water of Lake Skaneateles, featured in this story, has warmed by nearly four degrees since 1972, which worsens the blooms.  Moreover, “Every lake that we’ve looked at has led us to the same conclusion: Climate change is contributing to changing lake conditions that favor cyanobacteria.”  Heavier rainfall, also associated with climate change, makes a further contribution to the blooms via increased flooding activity.
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Carbon pricing is falling short as a prospective cure for climate change (Scientific American).  The demand for energy is growing too fast for renewables to catch up and take over.  That is because all energy is cheap and the benefits are high.  Putting a high tax on fossil fuels, but not on renewables, would be an effective road to change, but it is not happening, because some of the benefits of cheap energy (along with the economic growth that rides on top of it) would be lost for many years.  The public is still too enamored with all the present benefits to make that kind of sacrifice, thus carbon policies are a tough sell.
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State and local governments still have plenty of options that would be helpful, and not so hard to sell (Yale Climate Connections).  The author provides a number of suggestions for good ways to get started.  Doing these things, even if not a complete solution, would “help prevent the most devastating impacts of climate change.”
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Synthetic kerosene made from sunlight, water and CO2 is now a proven possibility (Renew Economy).  It could provide a useful alternative for long-range shipping and aviation transport that currently depend on kerosene made from petroleum.  It would also create a sizable market for CO2 that has been captured from the air or any other source.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1446

Posted on June 13, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study related to the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet (Phys.org).  This study from Rutgers University found a linkage between the warming of waters in the tropical western Pacific Ocean and the climatic patterns that are destabilizing this ice sheet.  “Knowledge of these relationships significantly enhances our understanding and interpretation of past and future West Antarctic climate variability.”  These findings should lead to better predictions of how much sea level rise we might expect from this important and now highly active source of potential melting.

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New studies are showing that recent heatwaves experienced in the Northern Hemisphere would not be possible in the absence of temperature changes caused by increases in greenhouse gas emissions (Carbon Brief).  One study “also finds that summer heatwaves on the scale of that seen in 2018 could occur every year if global temperatures reach 2C above pre-industrial levels. If global warming is limited to 1.5C – the international asperational limit – such heatwaves could occur in two of every three years.”
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How rising temperatures facilitate the spread of infectious diseases (The Ecologist).  This story provides insights into several situations that are of current concern, not all of which are limited to developing countries.
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How one private company wants to lead the agricultural revolution (CNBC).  The rapid changes that are required for agriculture to reverse current practices and assume a positive role in solving the problems of climate change are well known, but effective leadership has been lacking.  One new company wants that to change, on a massive global scale, and is putting creative and practical measures in place for doing so.  There is a special incentive package involved that should capture the attention of any of the farmers who cooperate.  It looks interesting.
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Further commentary on how consumers must contribute to climate action, with an emphasis on city dwellers (National Geographic).  This adds to the story in yesterday’s letter based on the same report.  When you stop to think about it, two of the world’s greatest religions were founded by teachers who were strongly opposed to any sort of extravagance in personal consumption.  The followers in some cases have kind of gotten away from that philosophy.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1445

Posted on June 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An update on drought conditions in India (The Guardian).  “Hundreds of Indian villages have been evacuated as a historic drought forces families to abandon their homes in search of water…..Estimates suggest up to 90% of the area’s population has fled, leaving the sick and elderly to fend for themselves…..The drought, which officials say is worse than the 1972 famine that affected 25 million people across the state, began early in December.”  Thankfully, thousands of water tankers are being deployed, helping people survive.

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Plant extinctions are occurring up to 500 times faster than what would be expected naturally (BBC News).  By actual count, “Scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, and Stockholm University found that 571 plant species had disappeared in the last two and a half centuries, a number that is more than twice the number of birds, mammals and amphibians recorded as extinct (a combined total of 217 species).  The researchers believe even these numbers underestimate the true levels of ongoing plant extinction.”  Every loss is bad news for other species that depend on them.
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Permafrost is thawing more rapidly than scientists have expected (CNN).  From a new study made of the Canadian High Arctic, “Researchers found maximum thaw depths had already exceeded what they had expected to occur by 2090.”  Just in the last two decades the rate of thawing greatly exceeds that which was observed toward the end of the 20th century, with the blame placed on a series of warm summers.  The story concludes with this—“Because Arctic permafrost is now melting faster than before, higher amounts of greenhouse gases and carbon could be released. That would warm the planet up more quickly.”
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A new study, first of its type, links the future loss of ocean biomass to climate change (AP).  The comprehensive study was conducted by 35 scientists, taking into account the varying effects of warmer water temperatures, acidification and loss of oxygen, but not from the overfishing that is also likely.  Their main conclusion was that for each degree of global warming (above the surface) we should expect an overall decline of 5% of marine animal biomass, with species of the largest size being hurt the most.
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A new report shows why excessive consumerism is the main driver of climate change (New Republic).  The logic is pretty straightforward—industries would not produce as much in the absence of customer demand.  The report was issued by a consortium of 94 of the world’s largest cities, whose populations are on track to nearly double their consumption by 2050.  “For cities to do their part to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the report says, they must limit their consumption-based emissions by 50 percent by 2030, and 80 percent by 2050. That will be extremely challenging.”  Yes, indeed.  How about starting a new kind of business, called ‘reverse advertising,’ that spends billions of dollars every day urging people not to buy things?
–Here is a link to the report.  It is very readable, full of charts, good advice and so on.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1444

Posted on June 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An analysis from BP of the world’s high growth of energy demand in 2018 (The Guardian).  “BP’s annual global energy report revealed for the first time that fluctuating temperatures are increasing the world’s use of fossil fuels in spite of efforts to tackle the climate crisis…..Carbon emissions climbed by 2% last year, faster than any year since 2011, because the demand for energy easily outstripped the rapid rollout of renewable energy…..the growth in renewables would need to have climbed by more than twice the rate achieved over the past three years to offset the impact of burning coal for electricity.”  BP advocates scrubbing CO2 emissions from the flues of power plants that burn fossil fuels—with the help of government funding.

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Natural gas is now the main driver of fossil fuel emissions (Axios).  Its replacement of coal in electric power plants has gotten much attention, but there is more to the story.  “But it’s industrial uses for natural gas, such as chemicals and fertilizers, that are the biggest drivers of growth in most areas of the world, per the IEA report. These uses can’t be as easily replaced with renewables like electricity can.”  The IEA projects worldwide demand for gas will rise more than 10% over the next 5 years.
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Healthcare accounts for a high percentage of global energy demand from industry (Carbon Brief).   “The research found that the combined emissions from hospitals, health services and the medical supply chain across the OECD group of market-based economies, as well as China and India, make up around 4% of the global total. This is a larger share than either aviation or shipping.”  Moreover, the rapid growth in healthcare demand is significantly boosted by many effects associated with climate change.  The study “identifies a variety of improvements that could be made to health services that would also benefit public health.”
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Why Cry for the Cryosphere?  This post features an interview with an expert the author of a new book, Vanishing Ice, which answers the question in ‘encyclopedic’ detail.  The coming problem of emissions due to thawing of permafrost gets attention, and the fact that CO2 already present in the atmosphere will remain there, “where it will linger for centuries to millennia. This commits us to more melting of ice and higher sea levels.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-cryosphere.html

Increases of deadly levels of heat and humidity are predicted for many city dwellers in Africa (Climate News Network).  Scientists have taken a count the number of days individual persons will be at extreme risk times the populations expected to have maximum exposure, which is exaggerated in large cities.  “In the best case, 20 billion person-days will be affected by 2030, compared with 4.2bn in 2010 – a jump, in other words, of 376%…..This figure climbs to 45bn in 2060 (up 971%) and reaches 86bn in 2090 (up 1947%)…..And that is the best-case scenario. When the researchers factored in the steepest population increases, the most rapid growth of the cities and the worst disturbances in climate, the figures rose more sharply. By 2030, 26 billion, a fivefold increase, could be at risk, 95bn in 2060 and 217 bn in 2090. This is an increase of 4967%, or nearly 50-fold.”
–The heat wave in North India brought temperatures to 48C (118F) in Delhi, the highest ever recorded in that location for the month of June (NDTV).
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Note:  The images associated with Climate Letter #1442 were mysteriously lost in transmission at some point.  They have been fully restored.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1443

Posted on June 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What life in India is like when water disappears (BBC News).  This story takes a close look at the people of one small city where everything has been going wrong.  They are not alone—“The crippling drought in Maharashtra is part of a larger climate catastrophe which has gripped India. More than 40% of the land, by one estimate, is facing drought and more than 500 million people living in at least 10 states are badly affected.”

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–More information about the coming of “Day Zero” in large parts of India that include any big cities:
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An update on deforestation of the Amazon under Brazil’s new president (Reuters).  After a few slow months because of bad weather the rate of clearing picked up sharply in May.  “The data adds to concerns from environmentalists who warn that Bolsonaro’s five-month-old government has dismantled conservation agencies, shown scepticism about fighting climate change and cut the budget to enforce environmental laws…..With Bolsonaro, people who destroy forests feel safe and those who protect forests feel threatened.”
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How the countries that make up the industrialized world are doing with respect to meeting climate goals (Climate Action Tracker).  Only a handful (including India) show efforts geared to a global temperature rise of less than 2C.  Five are in the ‘over 4C’ category, just two below 1.5C.
A detailed report on how the Arctic Ocean is changing (The Guardian).  This story is based on the findings of a large interdisciplinary expedition, where scientists were anxious to find out why things are happening faster than called for by predictions.  The impact of these changes on all kinds of marine animal life is given special emphasis.
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Siberia may be a prime destination for immigrants by 2080 (Climate News Network).  According to a new study, “melting permafrost and warming summer and winter temperatures will mean that agriculture could thrive and support between five and seven times the current population.”  Living conditions will become much more pleasant throughout the year.  Planning for infastructure development will need to begin soon.
Carl

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