Climate Letter #1472

Posted on July 22, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A major new report describes the road to sustainable, climate-friendly food supply (Ecowatch).  The 565-page report was produced by the World Resources Institute, with an eye on projected global population growth.  The need to sharply curtail beef consumption is one of the highlights, consistent with the need for a massive overhaul of farming.

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Prolonged drought conditions in the Horn of Africa have become more persistent (ReliefWeb).  This year’s spring rainy season has failed once more, leaving 12 million people with severe food shortages.  That number could still grow to 17 million by August.  The situation requires substantial humanitarian assistance based on food imports, which of course raises questions about the long-term viability of sources of supply.
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An author and specialized management consultant explains “the one viable solution to climate change” (Forbes).  Steve Denning is a keen observer and his opinions cannot be taken lightly.  He starts with a number of observations for why all the various current plans of action are not getting the job done at the scale required for success.  Partly that is just due to human nature getting in the way.  His plan requires an intensified effort to develop new technologies along with better-organized measures of enactment, comparable to putting a man on the moon, done in ways that get the public excited.
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On the same subject, another prominent author and environmental expert prefers a quite different plan of attack (Foreign Policy magazine).  Ted Nordhaus has doubts about the likely efficacy of plans that are dramatic and aimed at blockbuster-type results.  He thinks baby steps are the only way to go—“Slow, quiet, incremental policies are the planet’s best hope.”
–Comment:  Offhand, I would say that Denning’s approach is superior if we really are desperately short of time and dependent on searching for miracles, otherwise Nordhaus makes more sense.  There should actually be a way to accommodate each without excluding full pursuit of the other.
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A new study makes an assessment of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage as a means of negative emissions technology (Carbon Brief).  The best-known machinery appears to be feasible with respect to cost but the very high numbers of units and high energy requirements are significant drawbacks.  Moreover, “[P]olicy instruments and financial incentives supporting negative emission technologies are almost absent at the global scale, though essential to make NET deployment attractive.”
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Planting trees to absorb CO2  from the air is fine but results should not be exaggerated (RealClimate).  Stefan Rahmstorf has some issues with the size of the benefits claimed by a recent report which promoted a massive global planting program.  (See CL #1461, July 5.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1471

Posted on July 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
As a short followup from yesterday’s letter, let me ask this question:  If all carbon emissions from human activity were to stop today, and no meaningful way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or provide artificial cooling could be installed, what would happen to global air temperatures over the next 100 or 200 years?  Everything I have read indicates that a rise to 2C (from the current 1.1C over pre-industrial) could not be prevented, and something more than that, all the way up to 3C, would not be surprising.  If you were to browse through all the Climate Letters for the last two or three years you would find any number of arguments leading to that conclusion, arguments that in my mind have a great deal of credibility.  You would also find arguments that an increase in sea level of around 15 feet is virtually unstoppable within 200 years and that number could also go higher, to as much as 75 feet, within 1000 years.  All of that, and more, if the CO2 level is not substantially reduced from where it is today.  If we let the level go higher than where it is the future timing standards would not be extended, the lower level target we must find ways to drop to would not change, and the projected adversities to soon be suffered could only increase.  Having a “carbon budget” available to draw from is a nice convenience that may help to ease public anxieties for a few years but will not change the underlying reality, nor will it promote the strongest possible efforts to obtain relief.

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New research projects deficiencies in the availability of key nutrients because of climate change (EurekAlert).  An international team has published its findings in a prestigious journal.  “The study represents the most comprehensive synthesis of the impacts of elevated CO2 and climate change on the availability of nutrients in the global food supply to date.”
–On the other hand, miracles do happen from time to time—here is an example of a miraculous kind of maize that needs no fertilizer and grows to almost 20 feet, discovered in Mexico (Yale e360).
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Latest information on the flooding and landslide situation in Bangladesh, putting more than four million people at risk of food insecurity and disease (ReliefWeb).  More than 66,000 homes have been destroyed.
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The Mediterranean region, particularly Spain, is at high risk of desertification (Anadolu Agency).  “The Mediterranean region is highly sensitive because it is at an interface between a tropical region in Africa and a temperate region in Europe. It’s very easy to shift between southern air and northern air origins, so even a small change can have a very big effect.”  Several studies and commentaries are covered in this report.
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Something must be done about aircraft contrails (Yale e360).  Fred Pearce provides a detailed analysis of this sticky problem that adds as much or more to global warming than the CO2 emissions from aircraft, although in quite a different manner.  Contrails form cirrus clouds that can last for days.  “But understanding of the role of contrail cirrus clouds to climate is growing. Though sometimes too thin to spot easily from the ground, these will-o-the-wisps are the biggest component of the warming from contrails…..when contrails are around, they raise night-time temperatures sufficiently to reduce the day-night differences by 3 degrees C.”  Much more of interest here.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1471

Climate Letter #1470

Posted on July 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study regarding interpretation of the “carbon budget” has been issued, written by authors who have high prominence in this field (EurekAlert).  The purpose of the study is to reduce the amount of uncertainty associated with the many different ways commonly used in the approach to this subject, and the resulting confusion that may impair the work of policymakers.

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–The study does not have open access, but two of the authors have been kind enough to provide the gist of it for public consumption through an article written for Carbon Brief.  It helps to explain why there is so much confusion, and why they are seeking a better approach.
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I am going to use the rest of tis letter to introduce yet another, and completely different, approach to calculating the carbon budget, tied to the removal of carbon rather than allowable additions.  This approach is based on the assumption that we may have already passed the point of reasonable safety in generating greenhouse gases, leaving only one good option.  Essentially what that means is, what level of atmospheric CO2 do we need to get back to, and how soon, in order to avoid a genuinely catastrophic outcome?  That brings “negative emissions” technology firmly into play, something that is widely recognized as necessary but never applied to budgeting in any formal manner—in part because there is so much uncertainty over the methodology and costs that are associated.  That is a poor excuse for ducking the issue altogether.  How can we go about setting up such a budget, with removal as an integrated part?  Here are a few ideas.
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1.  How to redefine and then make a proper determination of the target.  There is some special work required that will lay the foundation.  It involves picking out a scattering of CO2 levels that we have already passed by and figuring out what each one of them would have led to, in terms of future climate change, if we had stopped all emissions at that level and then left it in place for 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 years, and maybe more, as all of the inertia factors and feedbacks were given time to unfold.  Scientists know quite a bit about how to do this, with constantly improving confidence in their accuracy, but it has never been done in a systematic way.  By all accounts once any such sequence begins, at any CO2 level, the consequences become more and more dire as time goes by.  Just think of sea level rise from melting ice sheets as one of the most prominent phenomena we want to control now that the long period of deep ice ages is gone but much of the old ice still remains in position to be melted.
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2.  With all of this information in hand, covering a range of CO2 levels starting at around 300 ppm and ending at perhaps 410, and describing all of the likely outcomes for each of them far into the future, we should be able to pick out plenty of time lines that had better not be crossed.  Presumably, for the lower CO2 levels such a line may not even exist, or could be no less than a few thousand years off.  For higher levels the lines would be quite likely to appear, and their appearance would be earlier and earlier as the level goes up.  All of the timing targets for any of the levels would need to be adjusted for the added effects, which are by definition temporary, of whatever amount of carbon has been emitted since that level was breached, or will be unavoidably emitted in the years ahead, and must be included in a schedule of elimination.
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3.  The actual CO2 level that we pick out as a target we hope to reach would depend on how quickly we can reduce and finally eliminate all current emissions and how quickly we can bring on the negative emissions methodology that will succeed in bringing us down to the chosen target level within the allotted time.  These two basic processes would of course be overlapping, which makes it easy to weigh the cost of removing a ton of CO2 against the implicit value of not emitting that ton in the first place.  We should be making that comparison right now, knowing that the need for carbon removal–and its possibly quite high cost—will soon (if not already) be viewed as unavoidable.
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4.  This approach to targeting and budgeting requires a radical transformation of perspectives.  The target is now a specific CO2 level, not some number of tons of carbon which are supposedly allowable, nor some particular temperature anomaly.  The idea of a budget might now be applied to the resources we can make available to remove carbon from the atmosphere, including high emphasis on R&D.  We should also have a plan in mind for how many tons of carbon must be removed each year by deliberate effort, and treat that number as another kind of budget item.
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I am sure these ideas can be expressed with more clarity and persuasion.  For today I want to just put something in print, for a start, with a promise to work on improvements in the future, hoping it all makes sense.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1470

Climate Letter #1469

Posted on July 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell
July could be the hottest single month ever recorded on Earth (The Guardian).  “If the trends of the first half of this month continue, it will beat the previous record from July 2017 by about 0.025C.”  That follows the record for the highest June, set last month.  July is normally the hottest month of any year for the planet as a whole.  Nunavut, in the Canadian Arctic, hit an amazing record of 41C (106F) on July 14.

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The problem of dealing with climate refugees is already here, and not going away (CNN).  Many examples are given, including some that are underreported, like this:  “In Afghanistan, drought has devastated traditional farming areas, forcing millions of people to move or face starvation.”
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More commentary on a recent study about California wildfires (The Atlantic).  The study was previously reviewed in CL #1467.  The importance of the findings about acceleration can hardly be exaggerated.  “Since 1972, California’s annual burned area has increased more than fivefold, a trend clearly attributable to the warming climate…..Over the past five decades, these summertime forest fires have increased in size by roughly 800 percent…..heat has an exponential relationship with forest fire.”  It is noted that at some point that would have to stop if there were nothing left to burn.
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Fossil fuels are taking more and more energy to extract and produce (Bloomberg).  A new study sees them rapidly losing ground in that respect when compared with renewables, where the energy-producing equipment is found to be manufactured more efficiently than commonly thought.  “There will continue to be a decline in those numbers for fossil fuels….. As easily accessible wells run dry, companies are forced to expend more energy extracting lower-quality products, which will then need even more refining.”  These trends provide a real boost in the prospect for renewables to serve as a fully competitive substitute for fossils.
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Ten steps the US government could take that would help to reduce carbon emissions (Yale Climate Connections).  None of these would be difficult to put in place, and people of lesser means are generally shielded from any cost or hardship.  The enactment would mainly require a kind of commitment that is now sadly lacking.  Their impact, while far from a full cure, would have significance, in some cases immediate.
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Iceland is endeavoring to bring back its once-lush forests (Phys.org).  Viking colonists are blamed for cutting down 97% of the trees that had covered a quarter of the island before they arrived.  The process of regrowth is not easy, but is getting an assist from the warmer temperatures begotten by climate change.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1469

Climate Letter #1468

Posted on July 16, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Globally, the average monthly temperature for the month of June was the highest on record.  El Nino had a small positive effect, which is only temporary.  “The current weak El Niño is fizzling out already, so the annual 2019 temperature is going to be high, but probably second to 2016.”  Any way you look at it, the current warming trend continues.

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The new world hunger report from the UN shows rising numbers each year since 2015 (Inside Climate News).  That represents a change of trend following decades of progress.  “The FAO estimates that 820 million people suffered from malnourishment, up from 785 million in 2015. Overall, nearly 2 billion people face either moderate or severe food insecurity…..Economic shocks are contributing to prolonging and worsening the severity of food crises caused primarily by conflict and climate shocks.”  A separate report shows that livestock production keeps growing and contributing more to carbon emissions.
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Tremendous flooding from monsoon rains in parts of south Asia (The Guardian).  Nepal, India and Bangladesh have been hard hit, no less damaging than recent flooding in the US, a sign of how rainfall everywhere is being given a boost by warmer temperatures.  Over 100 people have died as a result, with millions hit by flash floods.
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Climate change is not the only reason coral reefs are dying (Phys.org).  Researchers have provided evidence that nitrogen loading from surface runoff and other human activities can account for such killing all on their own.  “While there is little that communities living near coral reefs can do to stop global warming, there is a lot they can do to reduce nitrogen runoff. Our study shows that the fight to preserve coral reefs requires local, not just global, action.”  Perhaps this means we can temper some of the most dire forecasts that deal with future coral extinctions around the globe.
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A comprehensive new forecast of extreme heat conditions all over the US by mid-century (Inside Climate News).  This peer-reviewed study was based on the predictions of 18 climate models and formed into a special report by the Union of Concerned Scientists.  “It found that the number of days when the average temperature will feel like 100 degrees in the Lower 48 states will more than double, from about two weeks at the end of the last century to 30 days by mid-century, even with some efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming.”  This story includes a good deal of commentary about what the extra heat will mean for everyday living activities, including outdoor sports.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1467

Posted on July 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Ice loss from Antarctica is in view as a major cause for worry (The Conversation).  This article was written by three Australian scientists who are involved in the research and know how to clearly explain the many features that make a difference in the way Antarctica’s ice behave.  It starts with the potential weakness of all the ice in West Antarctica “because of its deep interface with the ocean.”

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–Extra comment:  The amount of sea ice surrounding the continent is truly extraordinary, as shown in the image below—apparently larger in area than the continent of Australia during the depths of winter.  Much of it is in a fragmented state around the edges, where pieces can easily break off and float away when wind gusts are high.  Look closely for bits that show up well offshore in the image (along with a small number of islands.)  Those bits have a cooling effect on the surface water as they melt, and the meltwater is bouyant because of low salt content,  sitting on top of warmer (and saltier) water that freely circulates underneath.
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https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat6_seaice-snowc-topo_1-day.png

Increasingly heavy rainfall in tropical storms and hurricanes is a symptom of climate change (EcoWatch).  The extra amounts of heat that are present allow more water vapor to be taken out of the ocean body and soon thereafter delivered as rain.  The rates of increase in recent storms are measurable, compared with past events.  “I think we’re at the beginnings of the new normal,” says one scientist.  Studies are showing that the flooding element in hurricanes is altogether more damaging than the wind.
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A new study explains the physical processes that will tend to increase summer drought conditions in parts of the US (Phys.org).  “The findings raise the idea of a self-reinforcing climate loop: as a region’s climate becomes more arid due to climate change, droughts become hotter, further reducing soil moisture.  Overall, these results indicate that strengthened land-atmosphere feedback is a significant physical driver for increasing occurrences of drought-related extreme heatwaves, particularly over the semi-arid and arid regions of the United States.”  The north and northeastern parts of the US do not show this effect.
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Another study looks at all the processes that produces wildfires in California (EurekAlert).  As in the above study, the combination of arid ground and rising air temperature is a salient factor, often the decisive driver.  In support of a frightening theory that has recently emerged, “It suggests that wildfires could grow exponentially in the next 40 years, as temperatures continue to rise.”
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A new study debunks the idea that “green growth” is an adequate solution to climate change (The Ecologist).  The green part is fine, but the real issue concerns the sustainability of today’s continuing rate of economic growth.  “The true cause for concern is the predominant focus among policy-makers on green growth as a panacea, with this focus being based on the flawed assumption that sufficient decoupling can be achieved through increased efficiency without limiting economic production and consumption.”  In other words, the way forward involves serious downscaling, whether business interests—or the public at large—likes it or not.  (I don’t like it either, but I believe the conclusion is absolutely correct, leaving us with a hard choice indeed, and no time left to think about it.)
–Here is a link to the report, which is of highly thorough content and equally extensive Bibliography:
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1467

Climate Letter #1466

Posted on July 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A genetic discovery could be of great help in the quest to remove CO2 from the atmosphere (iNews).  As reported in a new study in the journal Cell, scientists “have identified a gene that helps determine how deep a plant’s roots will grow which they say could be used to engineer trees to have longer, deeper roots.  The elongated roots would be able to store more carbon than the shorter, existing ones. Engineering vast numbers of trees to have longer roots could curb global warming by greatly increasing the amount of CO2 they absorb from the atmosphere.”  This would be quite exciting if all goes well.  Is it credible?  “His team has been given £28 million from a group of institutions to carry out further research.”

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The ten countries most vulnerable to effects of climate change (TIME).  Nine of the ten are located in sub-Sahara Africa—Haiti is the one exception—and all nine are projected to have the world’s fastest population growth in coming decades.  That is a bad combination with respect to promoting more conflicts, altogether increasing the need for outside assistance and finding suitable places of refuge.
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The latest news about Alaskan wildfires (EcoWatch).  Here is one item that I found especially interesting as an eye-opener:  “Currently, more than 550,000 of the 782,681 acres on fire in the U.S. are in Alaska…..To put that in perspective, 505,900 acres burned in California in the state’s record wildfire year in 2017. However, fires in Alaska tend not to threaten human communities as often…..Alaskans are used to living with fire.”
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How California lost 150 million trees in the wake of the recent drought (Smithsonian).  “…a similar drought between 1987 and 1992 was as dry as the recent drought period. The big difference, however, was the heat. This time around, temperatures averaged 2.16 degrees higher, meaning the trees lost water more quickly.”  That led to a cascade effect, which came to a head in 2016.  Future warming could make the effect even worse during times of drought in places where tree density is high.
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Climate change has a number of different effects on hurricanes and the outcome of each hurricane season (Yale Climate Connections).  This article provides answers to many common questions from leading scientists.  There still seems to be some uncertainty about how much the growth in rainfall will be under expected warmer conditions.
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Five things to know about blue-green algae (Tampa Bay Times).  This is a good report for covering all the basics.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1466

Climate Letter #1465

Posted on July 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Intense heat and dryness is leading to horrific wildfire conditions in Alaska this year (Inside Climate News).  “So far this year, wildfires have scorched more than 1.2 million acres in Alaska, making it one of the state’s three biggest fire years on record to this date, with high fire danger expected to persist in the weeks ahead….. fires are spreading farther north into the Arctic, burning more intensely and starting earlier in the year, in line with what climate models have long suggested…..For the year to date, the Alaska statewide average temperature was 7.9°F above average.”

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A humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad region of central Africa (The Telegraph).  “Some 4.5million people are displaced across the Lake Chad basin which covers Niger and Nigeria as well as Chad and Cameroon…..The Lake Chad basin is described as one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change…..Lake Chad itself is a fraction of its original size.”
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Global spending on clean energy is not going anywhere (Bloomberg).  This chart tells the story in half-year segments.  Everyone is getting more bang for the buck, year after year, but if is also clear that there is plenty of financial capacity available for stepping up the rate of growth if the incentives for doing so were all in place.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iIyChnKQ1lHc/imjOd2y3eiTc/v3/800x-1.jpg
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Putting a stiff tax on carbon would create a huge incentive for clean energy installation, but governments have been reluctant to take that step.  An article in a scientific journal helps to explain the reason in terms related to underlying public attitudes, along with how the situation might be corrected.  You can see a summary of the main ideas, including the surprising fact that the often-recommended “tax-and-dividend” strategy has only a low level of public acceptance.
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Another study has found (once again) that Americans are extremely reluctant to talk about climate change, a void that needs to be corrected (Think Progress).  “Tragically, research shows that this climate silence reinforces the dangerously wrong belief that climate change isn’t an existential threat requiring urgent action…..The more people actually understand about the science of climate change, the more they are likely to accept the scientific consensus — that climate change is real, human-caused, and a threat to human civilization.”
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The Guardian has published an editorial that provides an adept summary of the current predicament.  It complains about government paralysis in the face of a fast-growing emergency.  “Few people now believe that we can restrict the global rise in temperature to two degrees; virtually no one believes that the Paris target of 1.5 degrees is realistic; but 4 degrees, which the latest report urges we should be planning for, promises to be catastrophic.”
Carl

 

 

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Climate Letter #1464

Posted on July 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What coal companies are leaving behind as operations shut down (VOX).  Another penetrating piece of journalism by David Roberts.  It is not just the environment, or the climate, that is suffering.  So are the people who once produced the coal, and their communities.

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The US is getting an extraordinary amount of rainfall (from NOAA).  Running 12-month records have been set for three months in a row.  All of that water must have a source, and presumably that source might also be unusual.  Let’s look at a prime candidate, the Gulf of Mexico.  Scroll down to the image showing ocean surface water anomalies in yesterday’s Climate Letter and see how the Gulf and many other US coastal waters have been affected by extra heat.  Now look at the image below, especially noting the Gulf and nearby waters.  These are actual temperatures, and they are right up there with the warmest readings anywhere in the tropical Pacific.  When surface temperatures get up around 30C the rate of evaporation seems to accelerate, and nothing stops that vapor from sweeping over the adjacent landmasses.
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https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_nh-sat1_sst_1-day.png
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China has a completely different problem—much of its land is getting dryer.  From a report out of China, “semi-arid regions have undergone continuous expansion and a significant drying trend in recent decades…..The climate in expanded semi-arid regions has become drier and warmer, particularly in the newly formed semi-arid areas, and the drying trend is strongly associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon…..In the 21st century, semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand. It will increase the challenges in dealing with desertification, food security and water supply.”  That East Asian monsoon, their source of rainwater, has a relatively far-off place of origination, unlike the Gulf of Mexico v. many US states.
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An interesting comparison of carbon footprints between plastics and their possible replacements (NPR).  Just looking at the production side, there is not much difference between plastics and paper, or for that matter anything else made out of any material that must be created, processed and transported prior to consumption.  Plastic litter is a special problem we definitely need to get rid of, but it has little to do with carbon footprint.  The carbon footprint of plastic is growing at a relatively fast pace, but that is mainly due to the growth of packaging, which in turn is partly due to the way products are now being sold and partly to the trend of personal consumption habits that go far beyond actual needs.
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Individual actions can only do so much about climate change; governments must get deeply involved (The Guardian).  A professor of Earth system complexity tries his hand at political complexity, which in this case is all about how to get politicians to do the job they need to do on an effective scale.  Politicians always respond to a powerful concensus, which could also be called “collective demand,” once it reaches an unavoidable level of intensity, and that is what he would like to see.  We are not there yet, and special interests of many other kinds still have greater control over politicians.  At least there is now a solid majority that would like to see the problem go away.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1463

Posted on July 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
How climate change is affecting crop yields and reducing global food supplies (The Conversation).  A team of researchers from the University of Minnesota spent four years collecting information on crop productivity from around the world, with results published in a recent study.  Here the lead author provides an in-depth review of the study.  The overall conclusion was that, “when we translated crop yields into consumable calories – the actual food on people’s plates – we found that climate change is already shrinking food supplies, particularly in food-insecure developing countries.”  (Something to keep in mind—this is actually happening while world population continues to grow.)

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The carbon cycle poses some special dangers when overexcited (Phys.org).  A professor at MIT has spent years studying the effects of excessive ocean acidification, leading to a hypothesis that deserves serious consideration because there is so much historical evidence that backs it up.  He “found that when the rate at which carbon dioxide enters the oceans pushes past a certain threshold—whether as the result of a sudden burst or a slow, steady influx—the Earth may respond with a runaway cascade of chemical feedbacks, leading to extreme ocean acidification that dramatically amplifies the effects of the original trigger…..This ‘excitation’ of the carbon cycle occurred most dramatically near the time of four of the five great mass extinctions in Earth’s history……today we are ‘at the precipice of excitation,’ and if it occurs, the resulting spike—as evidenced through ocean acidification, species die-offs, and more—is likely to be similar to past global catastrophes.”
–His study was published in a leading journal.  Here is the Abstract, plus a statement of Significance:
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The delta region of Pakiston’s Indus river, home to fifty million people, has a medley of climate problems (Thomson Reuters Foundation).  For one thing this region is one of the very hottest in the world in summer months, and dry enough to require irrigation for farming.  There is a steadily growing threat from sea level rise and salinization of groundwater.  Third, the flow of the river itself is less dependable than before, in part climate-related—“the delta is receiving less than a third of the water it needs.”  The potential for mass migration seems very real for these reasons.
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New studies concerning the potential for ice loss on and around West Antarctica (The Guardian).  The story covers several new studies, none of which are quite as dramatic as some previously published work with respect to short-term prospects.  Instability of the Thwaites glacier, which may be irreversible, is seen as the greatest threat for rapid future sea level rise, for an estimated twenty inches (50 cm) over the next 150 years.  Longer-term, all of West Antarctica could account for 16 feet if completely melted.  There are natural fluctuations of both sea ice and glacial ice that make the entire picture unpredictable in many ways.
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A lengthy story from Mother Jones tells what it is like to be a climate scientist when confronted with unfolding disaster, in their own words.  Their experience is often emotional, in a way that is not readily duplicated when the information is passed second-hand to the general public.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1463