Climate Letter #1482

Posted on August 5, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A short (6-min) video of a TV interview puts recent extreme weather events into a climate change perspective (CBS News).  This is worth watching for lots of information.  The meteorologist even reminds us that the CO2 already emitted will add another half degree to global temperatures all by itself over just a few decades, something often forgotten.  (All future emissions, starting today, will just be adding to that locked-in base.)

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A new special report from IPCC scientists has a focus on the need for land-use changes (The Guardian).  A leaked draft states that “it will be impossible to keep global temperatures at safe levels unless there is also a transformation in the way the world produces food and manages land…..Attempts to solve the climate crisis by cutting carbon emissions from only cars, factories and power plants are doomed to failure”  The solutions that are called for are of a totally different type, one of them being a transformation in the kind of food we eat.
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BBC has a review of the same report along with helpful  information about the fundamentals of the carbon cycle and the important role of peatlands.  Drained peatland is great for farming because it is rich in carbon, but then it loses that carbon year after year.  More generally, the report describes a number of solutions for conservation-style agriculture, which must be taught to half a billion farmers around the globe.
A new study adds to the knowledge surrounding prospects for increased methane emissions from global wetlands as a likely feedback to rising temperatures (IOPscience).  This complicated subject is replete with uncertainties, some of which can now be reduced.  The authors foresee a meaningful addition to warming trends, previously unrecognized, large enough to require adjustments to any formulation of a carbon budget.
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What everyone should know about fossil fuel subsidies (The Guardian).  This is one of the easiest things that any government could do, individually, to help mitigate climate change.  The story should be widely publicized and talked about, over and over, both in and beyond the 112 nations that are responsible.
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Stunning photos of Greenland’s major melting event (BuzzFeed News).
Carl

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Climate Letter #1481

Posted on August 2, 2019 by Carl Campbell
From the WMO, July may have been the hottest month in recorded history (Rolling Stone).  “Temperature information from July is still streaming in, but preliminary data show last month’s warmth is roughly on par, or perhaps slightly warmer than the previous record of July 2016.”  Also of interest, very likely but not yet final, “Counting 2019, the five warmest years in recorded history have been the past five years.”  (This story has much more to offer about the current status of the climate change crisis.)

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A new report analyzes Europe’s recent heatwave, and what it means for the future (BBC News).  “We conclude that such an event would have had an extremely small probability to occur (less than about once every 1,000 years) without climate change in France…..The picture across Europe was the same say researchers.”  Now that climate change is here (compared to pre-industrial times), a heatwave of this intensity could be expected to occur every 30 years. Scientists have found that attribution studies still need to be improved.  “One problem that the researchers keep encountering when they carry out these rapid attribution studies is the fact that the climate models they are using underestimate the high temperature observations that are being made in the real world.”  (I suspect that has meaning beyond application to heatwaves alone.)
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Fossil fuel burning rose to a new record in 2018 (National Observer).  The information used for this article all comes from the latest annual energy report issued by BP, which is widely accepted as authoritative.  The author, Barry Saxifrage, who is Canadian, did a marvelous job of breaking down the raw data and assembling ten charts that put the entire global energy picture into clear perspective, with succinct comments added.  As you will see, despite the progress of renewables, there is not much in the overall picture to be happy about.
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Britain’s new government is following in Donald Trump’s footsteps with respect to climate change, regulation and the environment (DesmogUK).  “Boris Johnson has named his first full cabinet, and his appointments will have had one set of lobby groups rubbing their hands with glee.  His selection includes a large number of people with ties to 55 Tufton Street, the Westminster address that is home to a large collection of pro-Brexit, anti-regulation, anti-climate action campaign groups.”
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A new study alleviates some of the worries about the temperature effect of reducing air pollution (Phys.org).  Some of the uncertainties that are involved have been reduced by direct observation, showing that the net cooling effect of aerosols produced by burning fossil fuels is not as great as generally assumed.  That is a bit of good news, but does nothing to change the basic need to quickly stop burning those fuels.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1480

Posted on August 1, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The stepped-up melting of Greenland’s ice sheet has earned a full share of attention this week, so here are links to several stories worth reading, having many quotes from experts who devote their lives to relevant field studies.

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From the Washington Post, via Peter Sinclair’s website: “Greenland Melt Could Break Records.”  Jason Box is among those providing key information.
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Inside Climate News brings us some opinions that are quite troubling, one being especially so. “Somewhere between 1.5 and 2 degrees there’s a tipping point after which it will no longer be possible to maintain the Greenland Ice Sheet,” said Mottram, who is not yet sure about how quickly it would disappear.  Also, “Both Fettweis and Mottram said the extreme melt happening now is something that climate models have not done a good job accounting for…..By mid to end of the century is when we should be seeing these melt levels—not right now…..The models are clearly not able to capture some of these important processes.”
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From Gizmodo, an appraisal of this year’s extraordinary temperatures in the Arctic and the many different connections between critical parts.  For example, the record-breaking wildfires are seen to have a considerable effect on the conditions that influence ice melt.  The Arctic is at least on the threshold of never being the same as it was, with some calling it a tipping point already realized.
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Two standard methods for imaging Greenland’s melt rate are available daily at this site:
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A new study defines health issues caused by extreme events of climate change in Australia and the Asia Pacific region (The Guardian).  There are serious casualties that follow the events over time, these being “deep and insidious secondary impacts” that are seldom recognized in the headlines.  The report was compiled from scientific research recorded in roughly 120 peer-reviewed journal articles
–Separate studies treat the health impacts due to the loss of key nutrients in food supplies as a result of climate change, with some already already having an effect.  Tim Radford provides a summary in Climate News Network.
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A British professor warns against adopting a hopeful attitude toward negative emissions technology. (The Guardian).  He believes that hope is being misused as a stalling tactic.  “While it is true that some negative emissions technologies are practically feasible at modest scales, this knowledge encourages both magical and mendacious thinking. We all want a magic bullet that solves the climate emergency, but negative emissions technologies are not it.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1479

Posted on July 31, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A disturbing new way to look at future growth in global energy demand (Phys.org).  A new study separated demand growth strictly associated with warmer temperatures—mostly for cooling needs—from all other kinds of energy demand.  The authors “warn that by 2050, even a modest warming of our climate could increase the world’s energy needs by as much as 25 percent. And if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, we could demand up to 58 percent more energy than would be needed in a stable climate.”  Since air-conditioning is often vital to personal survival, that makes the task of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy all the more complicated, and difficult.

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A field report from scientists who investigate permafrost temperatures in Alaska (WCAI/NPR).  The group leader, Sue Natali, “says she’s never seen anything like it in her years of Arctic research, and warns it is a sign of abrupt and accelerating climate change…..It’s accelerating and the past couple years have been particularly bad.”  On a global scale, Dr. Natali thinks the thawing of permafrost could release carbon to the atmosphere, by the end of the century, in an amount on par with the current emissions rate from the United States.  The way to control it is by reducing temperatures, which in fact are currently rising at an accelerated rate in the very regions where permafrost is found—the far north.  (This is a good reason for viewing climate change as a genuine crisis.)
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How Ernest Moniz would tackle the problem of climate change in the United States (Axios).  The former Energy Secretary under President Obama is a very practical sort of scientist who has knows what political reality is all about and has given this subject a great deal of thought.  This post carries his basic views, as expressed in an exclusive interview.  They are most likely disappointing to anyone who sees the need for extreme urgency because so much depends on getting cooperation through compromise with the currently most obstinate stumbling block, big business.  He thinks that sector can be softened enough to put a carbon tax in place, one that would be modest in size, structured in such a way that no one would be badly hurt, and possibly not terribly effective.  That is not an easy thing to get done just right, but would be a great accomplishment because once it is in place it could be quickly and easily moved to higher levels on short notice.  That would happen if the public were to suddenly come to the realization, perhaps in a state of panic, that the rapid elimination of fossil fuels was a task that simply had to be done—comparable to the public mindset toward winning the war after Pearl Harbor, with no conceivable alternative.  We’re not yet at that point, but when the moment comes, and it probably will, having a viable carbon tax already in place would be extremely useful.
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An update on Greenland’s current melting season (CNN).  Right now the island is in the clutches of a heatwave, the same one that smashed records in Europe last week.  This year’s melting season got off to an early start, and now scientists are saying the final results by the end of summer could rival those of 2012, which set records by a wide margin.
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A perspective on this year’s Arctic wildfires (CBC News).  Overall, 2019 appears to be unprecedented in terms of numbers of and emissions from Arctic wildfires.  Canada is having an average year and Alaska above average but not its worst, leaving Siberia as the outlier, in really deep trouble from all recent reports.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1478

Posted on July 30, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Earlier civilizations have perished because of climate change (Scientific American).  This article by Kate Marvel uses the city of Cahokia as an illustration, right in the middle of America and only a few centuries back in time, together with contemporary changes of a different kind in the Old World.  These happened quite naturally, without human influence being a factor.  She makes a good point.

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New research provides a startling link between the impending loss of Arctic sea ice and global warming (KPBS).  The additional solar energy from complete loss of ice reflectivity over future full summer seasons, with constant cloudiness, would equal the greenhouse-based energy added by one trillion tons of human CO2 emissions.  From the Abstract:  “These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years.”  (Or about 0.5C by my calculation.)  (The podcast is only one minute long.)
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The extraordinary potential for adding carbon emissions from burning peatlands (Wired).  Currently the focus is on the Arctic wildfires, but the same thing is happening more often in many parts of the world.  “When peat burns, it emits lots of CO2, and when peatlands aren’t healthy, they don’t capture any…..the problem is supremely urgent: Peatlands cover 1.3 million square miles around the world, storing the same amount of carbon you’d get from burning fossil fuels for 60 years.”
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China is making unexpected progress toward lowering its emissions peak (Carbon Brief).  “China is by far the world’s biggest polluter, responsible for more emissions than the US and EU combined…..a team of researchers has shown that as China’s burgeoning cities become wealthier, their per capita emissions begin to drop…..this trend could in turn trigger an overall dip in CO2 levels across the nation, and mean that despite the current target for emissions peaking by 2030, they may in fact level out at some point between 2021 and 2025.”
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Now something simply has to be done about Brazil, a nation that poses a greater threat to the entire globe than any other.  That is the view expressed by The New Republic, based on the destruction of the Amazon forests and backed up by many scientists.  “The Amazon is the largest forested area in the world, one of the most biodiverse places on earth, and an enormous carbon sink for the atmosphere. Deforestation for agricultural purposes has been a concern for the last half-century, as an area the size of Texas has been slashed and burned. But what many policymakers may not be aware of is that if another fifth of the Amazon were to be destroyed for farmland or development, it could trigger something called a “dieback” where the forest would collapse in on itself, creating a carbon bomb released in the atmosphere. It would release the equivalent of 140 years of human activity.  (Open those last two links to see why.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1477

Posted on July 29, 2019 by Carl Campbell

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“Would Trump’s Reelection Doom the Planet?” (New Republic). Here is a remarkable editorial published in a well-established journal known for taking the side of progressive liberals in matters of political debate.  First of all, from my point of view as a practicing analyst of the many climate change issues, just about all of the author’s particular arguments are spot-on for accuracy.  The situation is bad and large numbers of Americans are beginning to realize the importance of doing something extra to keep it from getting a lot worse.  That simple truth becomes a major reason for knocking Donald Trump out of office.  Indeed, when all of the usual priorities are placed in perspective, climate action can lay fair claim to being the number one reason, more important than free college, higher minimum wage, other income gaps, or wealth gaps, or health care, or any other progressive cause you can think of.  Notice that not one of these things is mentioned in the article, just climate change.
Democratic politicians need to understand that Donald Trump’s right-wing base is as large or larger than the left-wing base, and highly motivated to get out and vote.  Plus, he is apparently favored by the way the electoral college system is set up.  The key to beating him is by reaching out to the 25% or so who are genuinely independent swing voters.  Just keep them in their comfort zone and focus on doing the right thing for everybody, with climate and the environment very much at the center of attention.  Downplaying the importance of personal economic issues, or the economy itself, is a tricky thing to navigate, but it can be done if even higher goals—which most people now seem to be aware of—are carefully framed.
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Roy Scranton is an author and English professor (Notre Dame) who gives much of his attention to climate change, and the possible end of civilization.  He does so with powerful language, in this instance for an article published by MIT Technology Review.  An excerpt:  “Our lives are built around concepts and values that are existentially threatened by a stark dilemma: either we radically transform human collective life by abandoning the use of fossil fuels or, more likely, climate change will bring about the end of global fossil-fueled capitalist civilization. Revolution or collapse—in either case, the good life as we know it is no longer viable.”
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Canada’s ancient interior rainforest is being clear-cut at the same rate as the Amazon (The Narwhal).  This type of forest holds vast stores of carbon, is rich in species, of which many are endangered, and not renewable.  Much of what remains is at risk if not stopped by legislation.
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An unusual climate change report, from Mongolia (NPR).  This country has experienced an average temperature increase of 2.2C since 1940, which is far above the global norm, along with 10% less precipitation.  Winters, long known for their severity, have become unbalanced, causing great hardship for traditional herding practices.  The native lifestyle gets a close look in this story.
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Farther north, in Siberia, where climate change has been of similar proportions, life is now dominated by the presence of endless wildfires and the smoke they generate (Siberian Times).  This story has an abundance of pictures.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1476

Posted on July 26, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new Current State of the Climate report from Carbon Brief.  This covers global temperature anomalies, El Nino developments and sea ice measurements, well-charted, from all major sources of data.  It is worth noting the difference between northern and southern hemisphere temperatures as shown on two separate maps.

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Update on the European heatwave (Reuters).  More all-time records smashed.
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New evidence suggests faster sea level rise as oceans get warmer (Inside Climate News).  A new method has been developed for measuring the undersea melt rate of tidewater glaciers, with surprising results.  “Beneath the ocean’s surface, glaciers may be melting 10 to 100 times faster than previously believed, new research shows…..Their findings suggest that the theories currently used to gauge glacier change are underestimating glaciers’ ice loss.”  (Whether this melt rate would be accelerated by yet warmer water in the future was suggested but not established.)  https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25072019/glacier-melting-warming-oceans-climate-change-arctic-antarctica-study

A separate study has measuring the actual changes in mass balance of Antarctic glaciers since 1972.  East Antarctic glaciers have actually gained mass because of a high rate of added snowfall, but greater total losses have been observed in the West, principally due to the accelerating rate of declines from the massive Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in the Amundsen Sea area.  “Ice losses from the Amundsen Sea sector of WAIS have increased progressively over the course of our survey and were 5 times greater in the final decade of our survey than during the initial decade.”  (That alone raises concerns over a near-term potential for ten feet of future sea level rise.)
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More commentary on the unprecedented wildfires inside the Arctic Circle, as reported in CL#1473 (EcoWatch).  This story has more clarity about the nature of these fires, the lack of access by firefighters, and the extreme dangers posed by the nonstop burning of peat beds that are emitting vast amounts of carbon to the atmosphere.
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The latest report on the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon basin (The Guardian).  A real nightmare, set by deliberate policies of the new Bolsonaro government.  “The steady erosion of tree cover weakens the role of the rainforest in stabilising the global climate. Scientists warn that the forest is in growing danger of degrading into a savannah, after which its capacity to absorb carbon will be severely diminished, with consequences for the rest of the planet.”  We all need to be frightened by this.
Carl

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Climate Letter#1475

Posted on July 25, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new paper explains why there were numerous megadroughts in the American Southwest between the 9th and 15th centuries, and why they could recur (Phys.org).  The scientists are confident about the causes they found but are less sure about the future.  “Nevertheless, the researchers conclude that human-driven climate change is stacking the deck towards more megadroughts in the future…..Climate change is setting the stage for an increased possibility of megadroughts in the future through greater aridity.”

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The warming trend in effect today is much different from warming trends of the past (Phys.org).  A study has made systematic comparisons of all trends over the past 2000 years.  There are three principal conclusions:  “What we didn’t know until now is that not only average global temperatures in the 20th century are higher than ever before in at least 2,000 years, but also that a warming period is now affecting the whole planet at the same time for the first time. And the speed of global warming has never been as high as it is today.”
–More insights into this important study, written for The Conversation by one of the scientists involved in the project:
–A feature story from Carbon Brief has still more to say about the project and its importance, with some helpful graphics:
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Global temperatures during the first half of the nineteenth century were significantly cooled by five major volcanic eruptions (EurekAlert).  A new study points out a number of unusual effects that were involved.  From the lead author, “Frequent volcanic eruptions caused an actual gear shift in the global climate system…..Given the large climatic changes seen in the early 19th century, it is difficult to define a pre-industrial climate…..1850 to 1900 is certainly a good choice but compared to the first half of the 19th century, when it was significantly cooler due to frequent volcanic eruptions, the temperature increase is already around 1.2 degrees.”  (That may be true, and it is a good thing to know, but then CO2 cannot be held responsible for every bit of the higher total amount of increase.)
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Democrats still lack an effective plan for tackling climate change (New Republic).  This story highlights a new effort to scale back the Green New Deal proposal in favor of something much more moderate with respect to goals.  The author is highly critical, also deploring the absence of having a legislative roadmap in place for meeting any kind of goal.  I think that “playing it safe” with public opinion is not a bad idea at this stage of the campaign, when just getting Donald Trump out of office is by itself a worthwhile goal, maybe the most important of all, for addressing climate change.  The party needs to do no more than pledge to return to the Paris accord and then cooperate with all the other nations that have a positive approach toward action.  The lack of US participation and leadership has clearly been a setback for getting anything accomplished globally.  Restoration is a tangible goal that a solid majority of the public should be happy to see, and totally immune from criticism.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1474

Posted on July 24, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Climate change may be connected to the spread of a deadly, drug-resistant superbug (Science Daily).  Researchers have come to that conclusion about a fungal disease that was thought not to be contagious but has in fact rapidly swept across the globe.  “What this study suggests is this is the beginning of fungi adapting to higher temperatures, and we are going to have more and more problems as the century goes on.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190723085941.htm

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–Much more information about the disease is available at this site, taken from three different media sources:
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Accelerating climate change threatens animals’ ability to adapt (Down to Earth).  An international team of 64 researchers has reviewed all of the available literature on this subject, covering over 10,000 published studies, and confirmed that a widely accepted view is correct: “This study is among the first to explore the limits of what nature can cope with in the long term and the picture is not very positive…..Climate change will negatively impact numerous species vital to the continuing function of the natural world.”
–Another study, just published today, provides a particular example of how a relationship between a bee and a type of flower has broken down, clearly illustrating the above point.
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“Earth Overshoot Day” was set for July 29 this year, the earliest ever.  Writing for The Conversation, a professor of sustainable development provides an analysis of the way this popular metric is composed and sees value in it, along with a few flaws that make it largely unusable for scientific purposes.  “In my view, the ecological footprint ultimately does not measure overuse of natural resources – and it may very well underestimate it.”  He goes on to describe some of the matters that cannot be made to fit this kind of indicator.  “The best tool for measuring human impacts on the planet may be a dashboard of environmental indicators, not a footprint.”
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Europe is again gearing up for a major heatwave (BBC News). For the second time this year, all-time records are being broken, with sights now set on Paris.  “The continent has also been hit by severe droughts, particularly in France, with no rainfall in many areas since last month’s heatwave.”  Climate change is being blamed for the high temperatures, with good reason—“Europe’s five hottest summers since 1500 have all been in the 21st Century.”
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Satellite images show unprecedented burning of wildfires inside the Arctic Circle (Independent).  Systematic collection of data may be lacking, but this post offers plenty of evidence that fires all across the far North are burning at a rate never seen before, all because of intense heat and dryness.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1474

Climate Letter #1473

Posted on July 23, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Better farming practices can cause a significant reduction in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration (Phys.org).  A new study shows how the result of certain possible changes should actually reduce the average global temperature by 0.21C by the end of this century.  Farming produces high levels of methane and nitrous oxide relative to CO2.  These gases are easier to control than CO2, and the short life of methane in the atmosphere would enable an actual reduction of its concentration—without any need for negative emissions apparatus.  (Methane has a much more powerful greenhouse gas effect than CO2, per molecule, largely due to the effect of having far lower concentration.  There are other large sources of methane that could and should be quickly reduced for the same reason, like the excessive amount of leakage from natural gas production and distribution.)

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A new hazard to human lives has been identified as average temperatures rise toward 2C and above (Phys.org).  Tropical cyclones are generally followed by an increase in heat and humidity in the surrounding area, areas which are by nature hot and humid to begin with.  While that increase is not especially great at this time, models are showing that it would ramp up sharply with future temperature increases.  “Through their analysis, the researchers concluded that if temperatures were sustained at 2°C above pre-industrial levels for 30 years, the number of people affected by this hazard would rise to over 2 million.  For the 1.5°C warming, the figure is 1.2 million and it reaches almost 12 million if the earth’s climate were to warm to 4°C above pre-industrial temperatures (and under this scenario, the researchers expect the hazard to be an annual occurrence).”
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Global temperature historical data have been updated by NOAA (EOS).  There are some changes in the new version but they are almost undetectable on the chart.  This story gets into some of the details of how the measurement work is handled and how it is constantly being improved in places of difficulty.  In that respect, “The most notable improvement currently in progress addresses the incomplete coverage in the Arctic, where evidence of climate change is greatest; the lack of full coverage has been shown to underestimate the global warming rate.”
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A new study looks at the future of regions around the globe that experience monsoon-type rainy seasons (EurekAlert).  These regions, which sustain two-thirds of the world’s population, are characterized by a combination of abundant rainfall and a distinct contrast between wet and dry seasons.  While not all such regions are alike, the overall expectation is that wet seasons will get wetter and dry seasons drier.  “We should be aware of and prepared for the potential additional flood and drought risks in the populous monsoon regions.”  The potential effect on soil water is equally disturbing:  “The surface soil water would deplete all year round as a result of atmospheric warming. This could reduce crop yields and further threaten food security for the dense populations.”
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Meanwhile, India seems to get a little of everything, all at one time (Inside Climate News).  There has been a substantial increase in the regional variation of rainfall across the country during this monsoon season.  “We will see many more heavy rainfall events … while other places will undergo prolonged dry spells, even if the total stays roughly the same, said Pai, highlighting the record rains in Mumbai last month even as Chennai in the south experienced its worst drought in decades.”
Carl

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