Climate Letter #1492

Posted on August 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What are the prospects for human survivability with 4C warming? (Climate Code Red)  The question needs to be answered since that much warming is well within range, potentially by the end of this century.  In this post David Spratt pulls together the latest thinking from many sources of a prominent type about how it could happen and the likely consequences.  Many helpful links are included.  This information has a level of credibility that means it should not be ignored, much as one might want to.

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–Spratt’s story makes heavy reference to another story of the same type that was published in May by The Guardian, as  posted in CL #1429 on May 20th.  Here it is again:
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IPCC climate projections have a common tendency to overlook numerous “tipping points” that many individual scientists expect will become effective at various future temperature levels.  This post appeared in a Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists last October, reposted here for the first time.  The lead author was a Nobel Prize winner while V. Ramanathan stands at the peak of a highly distinguished career.  “By largely ignoring such feedbacks, the IPCC report fails to adequately warn leaders about the cluster of six similar climate tipping points that could be crossed between today’s temperature and an increase to 1.5 degrees—let alone nearly another dozen tipping points between 1.5 and 2 degrees.”  (No mention of those that would come later.)
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One particular kind of climate feedback now has scientists especially worried (National Center for Atmospheric Research).  New models based on detailed observations of cloud behavior are raising global temperatures by as much as 5.3C in the event of a doubling of the CO2 level.  “The scientists determined that the main problem stemmed from the more detailed way CESM2 handled interactions between aerosols and clouds.”  There is still some uncertainty involved in this very complicated relationship, so future adjustments are quite possible.
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A close-up look at the forces behind the migrant caravans arriving at the US border (Living on Earth).  A Senior Investigative Reporter for CNN went into their homelands to find the real story.  While the situation is complex, he learned that crippling heat and years of drought were the foremost reasons for people choosing to leave their homes.
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Archival footage shows how ocean water temperatures were measured in 1947 (NPR).  This is fun to watch.  In addition, the story tells about a simple reason for why the recorded data was inaccurate.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1492

Climate Letter #1491

Posted on August 16, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study found that deforestation of a single plot causes significant temperature increases in undisturbed forest land up to fifty kilometers away (IOPscience).  This particular study was conducted in Brazil’s Amazon and Cerrado regions.  The researchers took great care to separate the specific influence of gains due to non-local deforestation from changes of a local nature normally expected in other places.  The principal conclusion is that climate models can easily underestimate the total impact of any amount of deforestation on regional temperatures.

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Bill McKibben explains why burning wood as a source of renewable energy is a bad mistake (The New Yorker).  What most people don’t realize:  “Across much of Europe, countries and utilities are meeting their carbon-reduction targets by importing wood pellets from the southeastern United States and burning them in place of coal: giant ships keep up a steady flow of wood across the Atlantic….. Biomass makes up fifty per cent of the renewables mix in the E.U.”  Bill has plenty to say about that.
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Natural gas leakage is shown to be the main reason for the recent spike in atmospheric methane (The Conversation).  “The Cornell University study indicates that natural gas production is responsible for two-thirds of the sizeable rise in global methane emissions between 2008 and 2014 – with shale gas produced by fracking accounting for more than half of this increase.”  Methane accounts for around one-quarter of greenhouse gas warming due to human activity.
Note:  The methane level has grown at about the same rate as CO2 since 2008, following a period when it seemed to be under control.  Each year around a tenth of the gas in the air is naturally removed, then fully replaced by new emissions, over half of which are not natural.
This scientist is very concerned about how people react when they receive bad news about the effects of climate change (Scientific American).  Read it and see if you agree.  (I think she’s on the wrong track.)
My comment:  I think scientists should stay away from expressing opinions about how humans are going to respond.  They should just describe the future exactly as they think it will be, according to the best currently available information, if such and such physical landmarks are actually generated.  Some landmarks are inevitable and irreversible over explicit time periods.  Beyond that, the landmarks that are breached depend on the future behavior of the human race as a whole.  Almost anyone can predict what that will be, and do so as well as any scientist.  Some will be right and most will be wrong, but they all have a right to be heard.  Scientists should simply make it clear, over and over, that they are not in the business of predicting human behavior, but, just like weather forecasters, or medical doctors for a different example, they are responsible for expressing the best professional information about their diagnosis taken from the evidence in hand and the implications derived from various other points of reference.  These, in turn, are to have been well-studied, yet will never be completely free of some remaining uncertainty.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1490

Posted on August 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Ice sheets have been found to store massive amounts of carbon, far exceeding that of permafrost (Phys.org).  “The Antarctic Ice Sheet alone potentially stores up to 20,000 billion tonnes of organic carbon—ten times more than that estimated for Northern Hemisphere permafrost.”  The growth of this storage has had profound effects on climate in the past, and a whole new set of effects can be expected in the future as the sheets decay.  There is much here to be learned about, clearly a subject of high importance.

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Another important new study links atmospheric moisture content to an observed slowdown in global vegetation growth (Carbon Brief).  “Global warming is driving changes to water vapour levels, the research finds, which could, in turn, be affecting the rate of plant photosynthesis – the process underpinning plant growth…..At present, the land takes in 30% of the greenhouse gases emitted by humans…..The findings suggest that, in the future, the ability of plants to absorb the CO2 emitted by humans may be “substantially reduced”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief.”  The concept of Vapor Pressure Deficit plays a key role here, which you may or may not find easy to apprehend in all its nuances.
–This site takes a different approach to introducing the study:
–A link to the full study, with open access.  The final conclusion, if beyond controversy, is certainly troubling with respect to its potential for requiring alterations to current climate models:  “The results of our analysis suggest that this projected increased VPD might have a substantially negative impact on vegetation, which must be examined carefully when evaluating future carbon cycle responses.”
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A new report from WWF reveals a shocking decline in forest animal populations (Deutsch Welle).  “The study, titled “Below The Canopy,” tracked the development of 268 vertebrate species and 455 populations in forests around the world. It found that the numbers of birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles have dropped by an average of 53% since 1970.”  Climate change is one of several secondary causes, with deforestation and degradation being first.
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A holistic study of humanity’s rapid and accelerating impact on the oceans ( EurekAlert).  “…the study assessed for the first time where the combined impacts that humans are having on oceans — from nutrient pollution to overfishing — are changing and how quickly….Over the recent decade, total human impacts to the world’s oceans have, on average, nearly doubled and could double again in the next decade without adequate action.”  The impacts are accumulating, with those due to the warming and acidification caused by climate change being a key factor.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1489

Posted on August 14, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new world record low bid contract for supplying solar electricity (Renew Economy).  In an auction held in Portugal the low bid came in at a price equal to US$16.54 per mWh, which translates into just 1.654 cents per kWh at the wholesale level.  (I believe without storage that should still be required.)  Portugal already gets 56.4% of its energy from renewable sources and has yet higher ambitions.

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Another bit of good news—the well-funded climate denial movement is falling apart (Vice).  The author of this piece did good research into a subject that is usually obscure.  Democrats still have to find a way to assure their taking maximum advantage of the situation—quickly.
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Plants are still “fattening up” on excess CO2 liberated by humans, but there will be limits (EcoWatch).  This story was drawn from several different research studies, links provided, bringing considerable clarity to a subject that defies prediction.  One study group performed 138 experiments to learn that total plant biomass around the globe is capable of expanding by another 12% or so by the year 2100, equivalent to 59 +/-13 petagrams (or gigatons) of carbon.  Humans currently account for adding about 10 PgC from CO2 emissions into the air per year, which will supposedly soon be reduced.
–Here is a link to the Abstract of the study I mentioned:
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A feature article from National Geographic takes an in-depth look at the accelerated pace of permafrost decomposition.  The facts presented here go well beyond the rather conservative projections that were commonly expressed just a few years ago, when there were hopes that new growth by vegetation could swallow a large share of the carbon to be released when permafrost thaws.  That way of thinking will need to be revised.  The numbers.you will find in this article (or its links) need to be compared with those found in the previous story, where vegetation growth is seen to have plenty of challenges just trying to keep up with everyday human activities, before hitting a possible wall.
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Tropical African lands emitted “unexpectedly large” quantities of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2016 (Carbon Brief).  New research based on an analysis of satellite information has finally solved the mystery of where all the extra CO2 emissions came from in that year.  Typically the lands across this region absorb a large net amount of carbon each year, but during the major 2016 El Nino, in the presence of heat, drought, deforestation, fires and so on, they turned around and gave off even more carbon than did the entire US.  This extremely valuable information about land-based activities has widespread application everywhere, and not just in El Nino years when natural circumstances are so exaggerated.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1488

Posted on August 13, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An important story about the potential for changes to carbon sensitivity estimates (Weather Underground).  “Our planet’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The findings—which run counter to a 40-year consensus—are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected.”  The revisions center on new things we have learned about cloud behavior, a critical element governing Earth’s radiation input.

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–Note:  Keep in mind that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is not achieved until incoming and outgoing radiation are in balance, which will not happen for at least one hundred years.  Outgoing radiation is currently delayed mainly by heat absorption in the oceans plus the melting ice effect, and that delay means the air near the surface is not warming up today as much as it will under conditions that are in balance.  Those conditions would add nearly one degree to air temperatures near the ocean surface—now 0.8C below air temperatures over land—and that particular change would certainly have a large impact on the production of water vapor, which is the most powerful greenhouse gas of all.  Changes in cloud behavior having a potentially positive feedback could also result from the added warming, as noted in the above story.
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Another new study has important information about the potential cooling effect on the Southern Hemisphere’s atmosphere caused by a possible rapid disintegration of Antarctica’s ice sheet (Science Daily).  Sea level rise could in turn be reduced as cooler waters below the ocean surface have lessened ability to melt the undersides of coastal sea ice.  The main cause of the slowdown involves a massive increase in the number of icebergs that have broken off and are floating far out to sea.  (This is not a new idea, but the prospect of it coming to pass is bolstered by this study, which has authorship of the highest level.)
–Note:  Reading this report, by coincidence, immediately brings to mind the story in yesterday’s letter about how CO2 lost control over Earth’s climate during the Younger Dryas event that started 13,000 years ago.  It seems quite possible that a huge number of icebergs were floating around at that time, with constant replenishment, and perhaps their numbers were high enough to take control over the climate for as long as a thousand years.  Once the event ended it did so very quickly, which I believe is consistent with the way iceberg rafting events might regularly conclude.  Here is a link to the Figure 4 referred to in that story, with red showing air temperatures, yellow the CO2 level and blue representing changes in the Gulf Stream’s speed, plus dating in 000 BP at the bottom.
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One more new study related to Antarctica’s ice describes reasons for the current acceleration of ice loss (Inside Climate News).  “Westerly winds that enable warmer ocean water to creep beneath the floating edge of the ice sheet have become more prevalent over the past 100 years…..the winds are changing because global warming is heating the tropics faster than Antarctica and the surrounding Southern Ocean. Contrasts between temperatures over different parts of the Earth are the main driver of wind.”
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Invasive pests are a threat to 4o% of forest biomass in the US (The Guardian).  A study has found that, “About 450 overseas pests that damage or feed on trees have been introduced to US forests due to the growth in international trade and travel.”  The spread of these pests already has a devastating impact on forests and the situation is set to worsen, thereby generating significant losses of carbon.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1487

Posted on August 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
July was Alaska’s hottest month on record, and the repercussions are ominous (Reuters).  This report includes much disturbing information about the consequences for wildlife, as surrounding waters have also grown warmer.

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The river Ganges is drying up (National Geographic).  This holiest of rivers sustains some half a billion persons, body and soul.  The loss of water is complex, due in part to the diminishing of monsoon rains that feed the entire basin.  This fine documentary is filled with photos.
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Rainfall in Louisiana is getting more intense, and scientists from LSU explain why (The Advocate).  Frequency and duration of rainfall events is not increasing but the rate per hour is significantly greater, mainly because the air is warmer and warm air holds more moisture.  “An increase of one degree Fahrenheit can increase humidity by 40 or 50 percent…..All that water is just there for the taking…..It just needs the right mechanism to make it into rain.”
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Studies show a weakening of the Gulf Stream, now having its slowest flow rate in 1600 years (Phys.org).  The decline has been 15% just since the middle of the last century, possibly an effect of climate change.  While there is some disagreement over the exact cause, “a consensus has emerged that climate change will lead to a slower Gulf Stream system in the future, as melting ice sheets in Greenland disrupt the system with discharges of cold fresh water.”  This article digs into a variety of possible consequences.
–There is an interesting “related story” posted at the end of the article about a study that was published last March, dealing with the Younger Dryas episode that started 13,000 years ago.  Researchers were able to show evidence that the Gulf Stream was slowing down in a pronounced manner for about 400 years before the event, which then featured a decline of six degrees in air temperatures around Greenland.  Later on the Gulf Stream strengthened for 400 years just before air temperatures recovered and quickly rose to new highs.  Quite remarkably, the CO2 level rose by about 20 ppm during the Younger Dryas.  It’s all very baffling.  Here is that link:  https://phys.org/news/2019-03-deep-ocean-current-shift-year.html
–You may want to take a look at the full study, which has open access, representing a great deal of effort by a dozen authors who were seeking better answers to a number of elusive questions.  Figure #4 is of most interest, with the blue line depicting the strength of the Gulf Stream.  (Green shows something else going on with a carbon isotope that echos the Gulf Stream activity.)  Note how the temporary complete loss of control over the climate by CO2 was fully restored at the end—but why did it lose control at the beginning?
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Why would a bear want to imitate a whale? (The Siberian Times).  Highly amusing photography.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1487

Climate Letter #1486

Posted on August 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Opinions from scientists about the new IPCC report, largely stressing the urgency related to the potential loss of food security (Phys.org).  An example:  “The stability of food supply is projected to decrease as the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events that disrupt food chains increases…..In the worst-case scenario, food security problems change from moderate to high risk with just a few more tenths of a degree of warming from now. They go from high to “very high” risk with just another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) of warming from now.”  (The steady trend of warming since 1975 has been just a bit less than tw0-tenths of a degree C per decade.)

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A New York Times story about the report picked up some bits of information that others often missed.  One particular item, as expressed directly by one of the lead authors:  “A particular danger is that food crises could develop on several continents at once…..The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing…..All of these things are happening at the same time.”  That thought raises the possibility that vital relief programs which today are effectively serving tens of millions of persons at any one time could lose their resources for the duration and become inoperative.
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Positive action aimed at making the best use of Earth’s land can be boiled down into four guiding principles (VOX).  One of the most encouraging things about this situation is that there are solutions to almost every problem which will simultaneously help to relieve other problems of a different kind.
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Solar panels are most efficient when placed on cropland (EurekAlert).  Rather surprisingly, researchers have found the panels like conditions that are cool, breezy and dry.  Existing croplands are ideal, and the presence of solar panels has also been shown by other studies to be good for crop yields.  The new study found that if less than 1% of agricultural land were converted to solar panels it would be sufficient to fulfill global electric energy demand.
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Electric power generators in the US are steadily moving away from coal (S&P Global).  “Power generators across the U.S. are not only sticking to plans to retire coal-fired power plants despite the pro-coal Trump administration, they are touting the cost savings of doing so while pushing a further transition away from the fuel.”  Whatever doubts they had in the past have been overcome, purely as a matter of economics.
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Another sign that the switch to electric cars is also inevitable (Think Progress).  That bit of good news comes from the world’s eighth largest bank.  They think this means peak oil demand should be less than a decade away.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1485

Posted on August 8, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The IPCC special report on the interaction between climate change and land has been released.  This is a massive subject to learn about, and every bit of it should be of great interest to all of us. Why?  Well, the way humans use land has a significant effect on the volume of carbon emissions causing climate change, but only about half that of burning fossil fuels, and it’s much more diverse, which is why we don’t hear as much about it.  Those emissions still have to be eliminated, for the exact same reasons.  As for impacts, does anyone care about the impact of climate change on fossil fuel production, or burning?  Of course not.  The impact on land, and everything that happens on land, is another matter, and the new report has plenty to say about it.  Just for starters, climate change produces much higher temperature increases over land surfaces, everywhere, than it does over water, and some land surfaces are heating up far more than others.  That makes the interaction especially interesting, so here we go.

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Carbon Brief has gone to great lengths to spell out the things of most importance in the report, and puts it all in perspective.  Their account may cover too much to read and master in one sitting, but there is nothing in it that can safely be skipped over by anyone wanting to know the full meaning of climate change. I may have some comments on the content in future letters, but today is too busy for that.
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For a more abbreviated introduction to the report, here are reviews from five different tried-and-true website sources that you can choose from, along with brief excerpts, starting with The Guardian:
–“This is a perfect storm,” said Dave Reay, a professor at the University of Edinburgh who was an expert reviewer for the IPCC report. “Limited land, an expanding human population, and all wrapped in a suffocating blanket of climate emergency. Earth has never felt smaller, its natural ecosystems never under such direct threat.”
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–“There’s no doubt the window is closing rapidly,” said Pamela McElwee, one of the report’s authors and a professor of human ecology at Rutgers University. “That’s a key message of this report.” (Inside Climate News)
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–“In one scenario, use of forestry and land to store carbon causes crop prices to soar 80% by 2050, translating into an extra 80 to 300 million people suffering from undernourishment.” (Climate Home News)
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–“Francesco Cherubini likes to ask his Industrial Ecology students what’s the most common use of land today, and nearly all of them get the answer wrong…..The correct answer is grazing land…..Today we are using nearly half of the land on our planet to feed animals and not people.” (EurekAlert)
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–“Although the IPCC experts are cautious in their use of language and do not make specific recommendations, it is clear from the report that a massive priority is to shift diets in developed countries away from the current heavy use of meat and dairy products.”  (by Mark Lynas, for CNN)
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Fossil fuel production by fracking leads to growing concerns involving water (Desmog).  The industry’s huge demand for water is matched by the challenge of wastewater disposal.  This fine report offers an update on a sensitive subject that doubles down on issues surrounding the best use of land for a sustainable future.
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A website is now available that will show the carbon footprint per passenger for any airplane flight (VOX).  The story explains how and why the site came into being, and provides the link.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1484

Posted on August 7, 2019 by Carl Campbell
How climate change will affect Appalachia, with a principal focus on hydrology (Phys.org).  A new study sponsored by West Virginia University foresees a rise in many kinds of extreme events resulting in a wealth of social problems, with  people living in thirteen states being directly affected.  Considering the amount of rainfall and flooding that is occurring in the current season one may wonder how much worse it will be later in the century as temperatures keep rising toward the author’s higher estimates.  Deeper droughts are also on the menu in coming years.

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A human-interest story from India tells about how people live when the water runs out (Deutsch Welle).  In parts of the country where monsoon seasons have been weakening many villages are emptying out.  This year shows no sign of improvement, and adaptation is notably difficult.
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Scotland could become a world leader in rewilding, via restoration of ecosystems (The Ecologist).  A Big Picture Conference will convene in September to see what can be done about reversing the widespread depletion of natural resources.  “There will be inspirational presentations and examples from around the world, delivered by leading rewilding practitioners, policy makers and storytellers.”  That is exactly what the moment calls for, perhaps leading to a public reawakening in Scotland and beyond.
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The US is losing land to development at a faster rate than Brazil is losing rainforest (Denver Post).  “Development in Colorado and across the United States is transforming natural landscapes at the rate of two football fields per minute, a new analysis has found — raising concerns about survival of non-human species and potentially accelerated climate change…..Those who worked on this project said the main forms of development modifying landscapes since 2001 include urban housing and commercial construction, road-building, agriculture, logging, grazing, oil and gas extraction, and the installation of pipelines.”
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The strong correlation between carbon emissions per capita and data tied to nutritional insecurity (BBC News).  A subject that is often talked about in a general way has now been given statistical verification.  In national terms, the ten hungriest countries—in a list of 113 having large populations—emit the least amount of carbon to the atmosphere per person and effectively have no responsibility for changing the world’s climate, a change that has a direct impact on their food resources.  For instance, an average person in one of the wealthiest countries, like the US, emits around 600 times as much carbon as an individual in Burundi, the poorest of all nutritionally.  “From this, and other research, what is quite clear is that climate change is not only a global health crisis, it is a moral crisis.”
–This link has the full report,which was commissioned by Christian Aid, with recommendations for relief:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1483

Posted on August 6, 2019 by Carl Campbell
More accurate ways to gain information about earlier sea levels have been found, with interesting results (Carbon Brief).  First, there has been an increase every single year since at least 1900, with the smallest increases around 1960-65. Since then, annual increases have grown larger at a steady pace and are now passing 3.5 mm per year.  Also, researchers found that during the earlier part of the last century the intensity of westerly winds in the southern hemisphere had a major influence on sea level rise through effects due to thermal expansion of upwelling cold water.  Contributions from melting ice began later and will probably dominate from here on.

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Building barriers to protect cities from higher sea levels will be costly—who will pay? (Yale e360)   “Conservative estimates of the capital investments needed to combat rising seas and worsening storms run into the hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming decades.”  This story has many case examples of proposals and recommendations with respect to needs in the US.  The numbers are big, funding is highly complicated, and practically no amount is in place that would allow projects to actually get started.
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The meaning of “desertification” is given a thorough explanation, along with the ways it is created.  Carbon Brief gathered the information for this outstanding article with many inputs from scientists.  It is based on the premise that desertification caused by human activity is “the greatest environmental challenge of our time,” and climate change is making it worse.  There are 2.7 billion people living in the world’s drylands who are critically affected.
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Separately, the World Resources Institute has ranked all of the world’s nations with respect to ready availability of water resources (The Guardian).  The result:  “A quarter of the world’s population across 17 countries are living in regions of extremely high water stress, a measure of the level of competition over water resources…..Around the world, stress on water supplies  can exacerbate conflict and migration, threaten food supplies and pose risks for water-dependent industries, including mining and manufacturing.” https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/aug/06/extreme-water-stress-affects-a-quarter-of-the-worlds-population-say-experts
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What is the future of the carbon sink in the Amazon rainforest? (EurekAlert)  Globally, one-fourth of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning are being taken up by extra vegetation growth, mostly in rainforests.  How long will this comfortable arrangement last?  Scientists are eager to find out.  New models show that phosphorus depletion in the soil will set limits, and much of the ancient rainforest soil is short on nutrients to begin with.  “This would mean that the rainforest has already reached its limit and would be unable to absorb any more carbon dioxide emissions caused by human kind…..If this scenario turns out to be true, the Earth’s climate would heat up significantly faster than assumed to date.”  Underscoring the importance of this knowledge, a major field-testing program that will extend for ten years has gotten underway.
Carl

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