Climate Letter #1502

Posted on September 3, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Strong new evidence of the extent of sea-level rise in the late Pliocene era (University of New Mexico).  The evidence comes from “very robust measurements” taken from formations found in a coastal cave in Majorca.  “…more than three million years ago – a time in which the Earth was two to three degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era – sea level was as much as 16 meters higher than the present day…..The interval also marks the last time the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 was as high as today, providing important clues about what the future holds in the face of current anthropogenic warming,”   Other measurements representing the mid-Pliocene warm period 4 million years ago, when temperatures were 4C above pre-industrial, show a rise of 23.5 meters.  According to one author, “This is a possible scenario, if active and aggressive reduction in green house gases into the atmosphere is not undertaken.”  The position of this particular site of measurement leaves little uncertainty about its relationship to the current ocean water level, or to the age of the formation samples.

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–Note:  This research group made no attempt to independently verify estimates of CO2 level or air temperature during this time period, which have been well-covered elsewhere, but sought only to improve earlier estimates for sea level.  Reactions from other scientists can soon be expected, considering the sensational nature of the report.
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A new study has found new reasons for expecting more frequent and extreme droughts in the future (Phys.org).  The researchers followed an unusual approach, connecting soil moisture to atmospheric aridity, or potential for precipitation, rather than to heatwaves.  They discovered strong feedback loops that caused dry soils to become even drier.  “The CMIP5 simulations suggest that land-atmosphere feedbacks will further increase the frequency and intensity of concurrent drought and aridity in the 21st century, with potentially large human and ecological impacts.”  (I can recall hearing that many farmers believed this was the case from their own experience during the Dust Bowl times.)
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Efforts to remove CO2 from the air by direct capture continue (CBC).  Here is an update on how the situation now stands.  Costs for the most advanced technology are estimated at $100 to $150 per tonne of CO2 captured, which puts it in need of heavy government subsidies or perhaps creation of a strong new market for the gas itself as opposed to finding secure places of storage.  The economics of capture needs to somehow become favorable in the same way that renewable energy has accomplished starting about eight years ago—which has been truly amazing.
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Many reasons are given for reducing the consumption of natural resources (The Conversation).  This was written by the former chief scientific advisor to the UK’s environmental ministry.  You will not see a better explanation of the full nature of today’s problem of extraordinary human consumption, which is simply not sustainable by any means.  Climate change is described as only one facet of all that is going wrong with the environment.  Technology cannot come to the rescue when the primary need is for vastly reduced demand and a completely different vision of social objectives.
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The Australian Medical Association is now calling climate change a health emergency (The Guardian).  The reasons are spelled out here for publication in a statement from its president.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1501

Posted on August 30, 2019 by Carl Campbell
‘It’s Really Close’:  How the Amazon Rainforest Could Self-Destruct (The New York Times).  An exceptionally fine explanation of the deforestation runaway tipping-point that we often hear about, including its many uncertainties.  In the worst case, “Could the Amazon rainforest — one of the world’s greatest absorbers of greenhouse gases, and therefore buffers against climate change — become a driver of climate change instead?…..As the warning signs of large-scale dieback have mounted, more scientists have come to see that scenario as a threat not just to the Amazon’s inhabitants and Brazil’s economy, but to a world already struggling to confront climate change.”

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How deforestation affects the local climate of Brazil (Phys.org).  A new study found evidence of a close connection between the amount of deforestation and regional temperature increases.  “Areas that had tree cover reduced to below 70 percent warmed 0.44°C more than neighbouring intact forests during the study period.  That rose to 1.5C during the driest part of the year.”  By way of explanation, according to the authors, “Evapotranspiration can be thought of as the forest ‘sweating’; when the moisture emitted by the forests evaporates it cools the local climate.  Deforestation reduces evapotranspiration, taking away this cooling function and causing local temperatures to rise.”  It also makes forests more susceptible to burning.  (The study did not address the question of temperature increases that might result from total or near-total loss of tree cover.)
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A new study has found that Europe is growing warmer at a rate much faster than models predicted (EcoWatch).  “Summers in Europe are much hotter than they used to be and winters aren’t nearly as cold as they once were. And, the continent is warming much faster than climate models had once projected…..As the climate crisis worsens, Europe can expect extreme heat more frequently and with increased intensity.”  No explicit. explanation was given except to state that there was no way such changes could be natural.
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A new report on the health of the Great Barrier Reef, and its ‘very poor’ outlook (The Guardian).  The five-year government survey report shows marked deterioration.  Effects of climate change stand out as foremost among a number of threats.
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Steel production can be processed using the energy of hydrogen, replacing coal (Bloomberg).  This is important information because the global steel industry as currently configured is a high emitter of carbon—as much as 9% of global emissions.  “Hydrogen can do everything coal does in the steel-making process, and the technology to make fossil-free steel is already currently operating with natural gas in many parts of the world…..nearly 6% of steel output worldwide.”  The relative price of clean, renewable hydrogen is an important factor, showing a favorable trend but not yet there.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1500

Posted on August 29, 2019 by Carl Campbell

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Time is quickly running out for the Mekong delta (Scientific American).  According to new research, “A stunning 12 million people could be displaced by flooding in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta within half a century.  The results…show the Mekong’s elevation over sea level averages just 0.8 meter, which is almost two meters lower than commonly quoted estimates.”  The combination of subsidence and sea level rise keeps eating away at that gap.  There are implications for other low-lying deltas around the world.
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Preview of a coming UN report concerning destructive changes in the world’s oceans (Phys.org).  This 900-page scientific assessment is comparable to the recent UN publication dealing with forest management and the global food system.  The principal conclusions:  “Destructive changes already set in motion could see a steady decline in fish stocks, a hundred-fold or more increase in the damages caused by superstorms, and hundreds of millions of people displaced by rising seas.”  This story has outlines of just a few specifics, with the final release being a month away.
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Toxic algae has become a deadly menace, accelerated by climate change (The New Republic).  The stuff thrives in warm, nutrient-rich conditions.  Now, “scientists predict that warming waters coupled with fertilizer and manure washing off farm fields during heavier and more frequent rains may accelerate the frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms in freshwater.”  In the US, this year is among the worst.
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The outlook for rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon is not expected to be of much help for the next few weeks (Reuters).  “While Brazil’s government has launched a firefighting initiative, deploying troops and military planes, those efforts will only extinguish smaller blazes and help prevent new fires, experts said. Larger infernos can only be put out by rainfall.  The rainy season in the Amazon on average begins in late September and takes weeks to build to widespread rains.”  The current 15-day forecast is at or below average for many critical areas.
–One forestry expert says the worst is still to come (The Guardian):
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The agriculture industry effectively kills off many recommendations of the IPCC that address climate change (WIRED).  The author of this story, Timothy Wise, has written a whole book on the subject, just published.  UN climate proposals “seem like common sense, yet little seems to change. The reason is clear: the corporate interests threatened by such reforms are large and dominant, and they use their undue influence over governments to prevent progress.”
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Another politician, like Brazil’s president Bolsonaro, gives strong support to corporate interests and has no interest in protecting rainforests (EcoWatch).  “The move, according to the Post, would affect more than half of the Tongass National Forest, “opening it up to potential logging, energy, and mining projects.”  (Tongass, in Alaska, covers 16.7 million acres and is uniquely untouched among those outside the tropics.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1499

Posted on August 28, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Expert opinions dealing with the many issues created by rising temperatures around the globe (Rolling Stone).  Jeff Goodell, one of our most prominent climate journalists, put together this long read about how humans will have to adapt to excessive amounts of heat, starting right now.  Many experts are quoted, including, for example, Peter Gleick, who says, “There is a shocking, unreported, fundamental change coming to the habitability of many parts of the planet, including the USA.”

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A brief explainer about the role of the Amazon in global climate change (Phys.org).  A Brazilian climate scientist gives succinct answers to four common questions.  The Amazon rainforest, acting as a sink, absorbs about 5% of the CO2 that humans emit, but turning the jungle into a savannah would mean a great loss of that free benefit.  “Unfortunately, we are already seeing signs of the Amazon turning into a savannah,” he said, citing the increasingly long dry seasons. “It’s not just theoretical anymore, it’s happening already.”
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The Congo Basin forest, a similar kind of sink for CO2, is also at risk of destruction by fire (The New York Times).  In this case the problem lies with the presence of hot and dry conditions plus an enormous amount of prescribed burning on nearby grasslands.  “If it catches the rainforest in the Congo Basin, it will be worse than in South America…..We are calling on governments to not be silent. Start acting now to make sure these fires are not getting out of control.”
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Hydroelectric power can be replaced advantageously by solar energy (Carbon Brief).  One important advantage for solar is that the panels typically require only 13% as much ground space as the land covered by hydro backed-up water pools.  In the US most dams are nearing the point where they will need to be replaced due to ageing or obsolescence. This means many of their free-flowing rivers could be restored without losing any of the benefits of cheap and clean renewable energy.
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In northern Greenland, an entire way of life has changed in one generation (The Mirror).  A reporter’s first hand account, along with great photography.
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How temperatures have changed across the lower 48 states since 1895 (AL.com).  This post contains a particularly good graphic map showing the changes in detail.  A few spots are up close to 3C already while a few others have actually dropped a bit.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1498

Posted on August 27, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Important new research into the effects of increasing ocean acidification (The Conversation).  Two of the authors of a new study provide a simple explanation of their work, which uncovered a previously unrecognized threat from ocean acidification.  “In our study we discovered increased seawater acidity reduced Antarctic phytoplanktons’ ability to build strong cell walls, making them smaller and less effective at storing carbon. At current rates of seawater acidification,  we could see this effect before the end of the century…..Fewer diatoms sinking to the ocean floor mean significant changes in silicon cycling and carbon burial. In a time when carbon drawn down by our ocean is crucial to helping sustain our atmospheric systems, any loss from this process will exacerbate CO₂ pollution.”  (There are over 100,000 species of diatoms.  Their health is important for many reasons.)

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What scientists know about Amazon fires and their importance to Earth’s climate (Phys.org).  All the fundamentals are clearly laid out in this broad-based explainer.  For example, “Without these CO2 “sinks”, Earth’s surface temperature would already be hotter, and the risk of runaway global warming that much higher…..The health of the planet is at stake. With every hectare lost, we are that much closer to the scary scenario of runaway climate change.”  With regard to carbon sinks, notice how this effect has much in common with that of the altogether different process described in the story above.
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A quick update on the current level of atmospheric CO2.  Right now we are about 3 ppm higher than last year was at the end of August, a very large increase for a 12-month period having no meaningful El Nino effect.  Looking at both the upper and lower charts in this link, it is hard not to notice disturbing signs of possible acceleration.  Removal of natural carbon sinks will by itself have that kind of effect, apart from any additions of carbon directly due to human activity.
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New information has been gathered concerning the release of greenhouse gas from melting permafrost (Phys.org).  For this study, “The experiment showed that permafrost thawing may produce microbially degradable rich organic matter, which, in turn, will cause massive greenhouse emissions and speed up global warming…..It transpired that biodegradable components are present both at great depths and very close to the permafrost surface. According to our projections, the Arctic region will very soon have a marked impact on global warming.”  (That would accelerate the CO2 chart action in just the same way as carbon sink removal, again apart from whatever human activity is doing.)
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How much time do we have to reverse the course of climate change?  This review by Bob Berwyn at Inside Climate News brings everything up to date with great clarity.  He even has a section that highlights the danger of crossing the tipping points that are set in stone by nature—some of which were described earlier in this letter.  (We also noted that CO2 from all sources this year is accelerating, not dropping.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1497

Posted on August 26, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Amazon fires explained:  what are they, why are they so damaging, and how can we stop them?  Two professors of Conservation Science, writing for The Conversation, provide unusual information and expert analysis at a very high level.  Solutions are known and available, but all of them involve “approaches that the current Brazilian administration seems intent on destroying.”

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An editorial in The Atlantic has further commentary on the adverse political situation in Brazil and a reminder for everyone about the scale of what is being lost.
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Massive fires in Bolivia get little attention but in many ways are comparable to those in Brazil.  This situation is described by a conservation researcher, published in The Conversation.  President Evo Morales is being blamed for his open encouragement of deforestation practices.
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A scientist from the University of California has much more to say about fires in the Amazon (The Hill).  “As we look to blame ranchers, politicians, and climate for these fires, we overlook a glaring paradox. That is, underlying the long-term destruction of the Amazon rain forest for decades has been global demand for meat products…..Some reports suggest as much as 80 percent of Amazon forest destruction is related to cattle ranching…..All told, beef accounts for about 40 percent of livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions, and livestock accounts for 15 percent of total global emissions. “
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100-year floods could become annual events in parts of the US. (Yale e360).  “Historically, 100-year floods have been just that — an intense flooding event that happens once every 100 years, or has a 1 percent chance of happening in any given year. But scientists found that 100-year floods will become annual events in New England. In the U.S. Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, counties could experience such floods every one to 30 years.”
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The continuing search for new ways to improve the health of soils (WIRED).  This story provides a good update on why there is an immediate need and what researchers on the front lines of experimentation are doing to find solutions.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1496

Posted on August 23, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study finds direct evidence of feedbacks between soil moisture and changes in air temperature (Phys.org).  The clearest statement of results, as found within the study:  “Ecosystems in very dry regions most likely decrease carbon uptake under warming conditions and thus cause a positive feedback to climate warming. In contrast, ecosystems in wet regions possibly generate a negative feedback. Moreover, warmer climate will result in chronically lowering soil moisture.”  (Always remember, a “positive” feedback just means more of the same, for better or worse.)

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A short review of the status of seven possible ways to help the climate through geoengineering (Phys.org).  About the only comment one can make is that nothing seems to have changed.  Some of these things are definitely helpful, even if just in a small way, and should be pushed forward.  Drastic cuts in wasteful energy consumption would at least slow the progress of the main cause of climate change, with fewer drawbacks.
–There is a new study making the argument that burning wood pellets for energy should not be classified as a  renewable alternative, like wind and solar, but has the opposite effect.
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Great Lakes water levels are up six feet in six years (E&E News).  “Gronewold describes the shift as a “tug of war” between two dominant natural forces — precipitation and evaporation — that are becoming increasingly erratic. If any one of those forces has an induced variability, you’re likely to have pronounced shift in the water regime.”  Precipitation seems to be winning these days.
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Update on the current fire season in Alaska (The Guardian).  “Everything points to more fires, longer fire seasons and more intense fires…..There is no silver lining…..As the Arctic warms twice as fast as the rest of the planet, Alaska as a whole is feeling the climate crisis more acutely than many other US states.”  A long list of things are going wrong.
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An unusual indicator of climate change has made its mark in the British Isles (CNN).  “A tropical plant has produced male and female cones outdoors in the UK for the first time in 60 million years, in an event that botanists say is a clear indication of climate change.”  The particular location is a bit special, but the symbolism is still noteworthy.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1495

Posted on August 22, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The tragic scale of major wildfires all over the world (VOX).  An overview of where and why they exist.  For most it was bad climate, but not so for the Amazon, where the usual summer dry spell is not especially problematic.  The majority of current fires are being set deliberately.

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A closer look at what is happening in the Amazon (Mongabay).  “They cut the trees, leave the wood to dry and later put fire to it, so that the ashes can fertilize the soil…..when the rains come, pasture grass flourishes in the short term from the nutrients left by the ashes…..this year the fires have started earlier. Landowners usually slash and burn their lands about a month before the onset of the rains. But the rains won’t start before late September – later in more northern parts of the Amazon.  It could mean that there is going to be a lot more fire ahead.”  We thus won’t know the true scale of this disaster for at least several more weeks.
–One more look, this time through a number of personal accounts (Newsweek).  This post opens with a 4-minute video featuring the author/journalist David Wallace-Wells, who summarizes his rather bleak expectations for climate impacts in general.  David has spent many hours interviewing prominent scientists with a focus on what their greatest worries may be, making him as well informed as anyone on that particular subject.
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A new study has found that more frequent wildfires in northern forests contribute to climate change in a manner not previously understood (EurekAlert).  The researchers paid special attention to carbon that has been left in the soil, in a well-preserved state, after fires from another era, then finally released during fires of the kind now happening.  As a result, they conclude that forest regions once acting as carbon sinks have now become a net source.
–This related post has additional commentary from the people who did the study showing more detail behind the overall effect.  When forests are burning at a younger age the average amount of carbon that exists above the surface will decline over time and the amount that remains in the soil will no longer be more than enough to offset that loss, but will instead fall short.
–Three professors who are familiar with this work, writing for The Conversation, give us their own version of an explanation for this phenomenon, and tell how it is not limited to North America.  “That’s true not just for North American boreal forests, but also the vast forests in Russia, China, and other sub-arctic regions covered by the sprawling ecosystem.  We’re currently studying boreal forests in little-researched north-eastern China, where worried forest managers are reporting decreased snow cover and burning of an intensity and extent they have not experienced before.”
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A quick reference to the two diagrams shown in yesterday’s Climate Letter.  It looks like sea level rise approaching ten meters was possible at times when the CO2 level was somewhat below 350 ppm.  That should be interpreted as a long-term risk factor once all feedbacks have been accounted for and insolation relative to the South Pole is just right.  As far as “targets” are concerned, and with respect only to sea level, I can’t see anything much above 300 ppm that deserves to be called safe on a long-term basis.  Bringing CO2 back down to that level from where it is today, if it can be done, will surely take longer than the time needed to push it up so far.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1494

Posted on August 21, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new contribution to the study of climate during the late Pliocene era (Climate of the Past).  The study does not arrive at any sensational new findings, or have much to say about global temperatures at the time, but is quite important because of adding new methods of study which help to constrain some of the findings of previous studies.  The result can especially add to one’s confidence toward knowledge of both CO2 levels and sea levels during this period and their relationship over a number of regular warming and cooling cycles.  I would encourage you to take a good look at the full study, which is posted here with open access, or at least study the two charts down below which I picked out from it.  Now that we will soon be moving the current CO2 level past 450, and who knows how far beyond that, we certainly need to start preparing for a sea level rise of more than ten meters—it’s just a question of how soon.

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–Estimates of sea level and CO2 history:
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A close look at what is happening to Greenland these days (Phys.org).  The basic trend of melting keeps worsening, although 2912 still holds an isolated record.  “Holland, like NASA’s Willis, suspects that warm, salty water that comes in part from the Gulf Stream in North America is playing a bigger role than previously thought in melting Greenland’s ice. And if that’s the case, that’s probably bad news for the planet, because it means faster and more melting and higher sea level rise. Willis said that by the year 2100, Greenland alone could cause 3 or 4 feet (more than 1 meter) of sea level rise.”
–A different post on the same subject has an amazing piece of extra information (CNN):  “As our plane approached Helheim, the scientists spotted an ice-free “lake” at the very front of the glacier, something they said they don’t see often. The probes also brought back troubling data — Helheim was surrounded by warm water along its entire depth, more than 2,000 feet below the surface.  It’s very rare anywhere on the planet to see 700 meters of no temperature variation, normally we find colder waters in the upper hundred meters or so, but right in front of the glacier it’s warm all the way up…..These warm waters now are able to be in direct contact with the ice over its entire face, supercharging the melting.”
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A new study provides insights into reasons why extreme weather conditions tend to last longer as temperatures rise toward 2C (Carbon Brief).  “This combination of enhanced persistence and the intensification of weather extremes – due to generally hotter summers and the intensification of heavy precipitation events – scales up the potential risks in the future.”  You may react to this report with a sigh of relief, because, although plenty of discomfort is involved, there is nothing in it that suggests any form of genuine catastrophe, nor even much in the way of surprises.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1493

Posted on August 20, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Why global food production needs to be fixed, and how to do it (The Telegraph).  An excellent presentation, full of information, easy to read, great graphics.  (Also, check out the Global Health Security link at the end.)

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The current and projected impact of climate change on cities in the US (The Guardian).  “In urban areas, heatwaves are exacerbated by vehicles, industrial processes and the presence of heat-retaining concrete and asphalt. And it is in cities – especially in low-lying poorer areas – where record rainfall often accumulates.”  All that extra heat makes a big difference.
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How climate change serves as a threat multiplier (Mad Scientist Laboratory).  This post by an Australian Army officer is a clear representation of the impact of climate change from a military point of view. “While climate change doesn’t automatically lead to higher levels of violence, the Global Peace Index described it best as its ability to exacerbate security threats when they stated that “climate pressures adversely impact resource availability, affect population dynamics, and strain societal institutions, which directly affects security and stability.”  He provides a number of examples.
A story about climate tipping points that has not gotten the attention it deserves (PNAS journal).  Yesterday’s letter contained several stories about what the current warming trend can lead to as temperatures rise.  One story was focused on the many “tipping point” feedbacks in line for ignition on the path toward 2C, hastening its arrival.  I want to add one more story that was published and posted here in June of last year, written by a leading group of scientists who concentrate on long term changes that take more time to emerge and may then be irreversible.  The type of risk they foresee is clearly explained, and they say the potential threshold for realization could be reached with temperature gains as low as 2C above pre-industrial.  “We suggest 2 °C because of the risk that a 2 °C warming could activate important tipping elements, raising the temperature further to activate other tipping elements in a domino-like cascade that could take the Earth System to even higher temperatures.”  That terrifying exposure, uncertain as it may be, should be taken into consideration by all IPCC reports.
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A fascinating new way to get more value from oil-bearing sediments, while helping the planet (EurekAlert).  A process has been developed that will liberate hydrogen in place of oil from any kind of oil field, leaving all the carbon in the ground.  The original aim was intended for application to Canadian oil sands, which are very dirty and expensive to produce, but the economics look so favorable that much broader application is being considered.  “When working at production level, we anticipate we will be able to use the existing infrastructure and distribution chains to produce H2 for between 10 and 50 cents per kilo. This means it potentially costs a fraction of gasoline for equivalent output.  This compares with current H2 production costs of around $2/kilo. Around 5% of the H2 produced then powers the oxygen production plant, so the system more than pays for itself….. we anticipate that most of the interest in this process will come from outside Canada, as the economics and the environmental implications make people look very hard at whether they want to continue conventional oil production.” ( Is this for real?)
Carl

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