Climate Letter #1512

Posted on September 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell
As the Monsoon and Climate Shift, India Faces Worsening Floods (Yale e360).  “New studies show that extreme precipitation events are on the rise in large parts of India, especially multi-day deluges that lead to large-scale floods.”  This story has a complete accounting of what is happening.

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The Arctic is browning (University of Sheffield).  A professor who studies Arctic ecosystems offers his own new observations and insights into what it means for the global climate system.  “The fact that extreme events in the Arctic are killing tundra plants is a big concern because those damaged ecosystems are less able to take up CO2 to help combat climate change, and less able to provide habitat and food for the animals that rely on a healthy tundra ecosystems for survival.”
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A new UN report covering oceans, polar regions and glaciers will raise new alarms (WWF).  Comments from WWF scientists who are familiar with its contents, for example:  “We already see accelerated impacts of climate change across the globe and are at a point where we simply cannot ignore the warning signs from our planet any longer. No matter what any sceptic might say, the risks we face in the future are real and, if left unchecked will have disastrous consequences for millions of people and for the planet’s most vulnerable ecosystems.”
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New climate models that show higher than the most-widely-understood risk of warming are apparently being recognized by the UN (Phys.org).  “Greenhouse gases thrust into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels are warming Earth’s surface more quickly than previously understood, according to new climate models set to replace those used in current UN projections, scientists said Tuesday.”  If true, this is really big news.  The model results were reported some weeks ago, but how would the UN and IPCC react?  All of the normal, and very conservative, assumptions about climate change, along with the carbon budgets, would be seriously upended by acceptance.  How could you then go about explaining this to government policymakers, or to the general public, which have had so much trouble accepting and acting upon the weaker forecasts we have long been accustomed to getting?  “The new calculations also suggest the Paris Agreement goals of capping global warming at “well below” two degrees, and 1.5C if possible, will be harder to reach, the scientists said…..”With our two models, we see that the scenario known as SSP1 2.6—which normally allows us to stay under 2C—doesn’t quite get us there.”  Intense and much more urgent changes in the overall discussion may soon be coming, with a whole new set of numbers to consider.
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A new report explains why it is so difficult to stop deforestation of the Amazon (The Guardian).  “Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is a lucrative business largely driven by criminal networks that threaten and attack government officials, forest defenders and indigenous people who try to stop them, according to a new report by Human Rights Watch…..As long as you have this level of violence, lawlessness and impunity for the crimes committed by these criminal groups it will be impossible for Brazil to rein in deforestation…..These criminal networks will attack anyone who stands in their way.”
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A new technology offers hope for emissions-free cement production (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).  Cement accounts for about 8 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions.  “A team of researchers at MIT has come up with a new way of manufacturing the material that could eliminate these emissions altogether, and could even make some other useful products in the process…..the technology is simple and could, in principle, be easily scaled up.”  The task of gaining acceptance and penetrating the huge industrial base is now being strategized.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1511

Posted on September 16, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A close look at the contribution of military spending to climate change.  This was written for The Intercept by the journalist Murtaza Hussain, largely based on the writings of Rabindranath Tagore and a recent report from the Watson Institute at Brown University.  The latter reveals that the US Department of Defense is “the world’s largest institutional user of petroleum and correspondingly, the single largest producer of greenhouse gases in the world.”  Tagore died in 1941 but his remarkable insights are still very much alive.

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–Link to the Watson report:
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Our obsession with clothing has an oversized impact on climate and the environment (Unearthed).  The extravagance of “fast fashion” is just part of the whole picture.  “Looking beyond textiles production to the environmental impact of clothes washing and how clothes are discarded conjures an even more bleak image:an annual CO2e footprint of 3.3 billion tonnes — equal to 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions.”  The article has a full assortment of other troublesome statistics.
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A new report covers the destructive nature of government subsidies to agriculture and how they could be redirected (The Guardian).  The report was produced by a coalition of research groups, and is quite comprehensive.  Of subsidies totaling at least $700 billion per year only 1% of funds are used to benefit the environment and most do real harm.  Recommendations for change are clearly spelled out.
–The report is available in several formats:  https://www.foodandlandusecoalition.org/global-report/
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An update on the rapid loss of ice on the Tibetan Plateau, the world’s “third pole” (The Guardian).  A quarter of its ice has been lost since 1970.  An upcoming IPCC report “will warn that up to two-thirds of the region’s remaining glaciers are on track to disappear by the end of the century…..One reason for the rapid ice loss is that the Tibetan plateau, like the other two poles, is warming at a rate up to three times as fast as the global average, by 0.3C per decade.
–Most of the plateau, which contains a vast ice sheet, extends well beyond the better-known range of high peaks.  Here is a link to a topographical map—really interesting:
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Responses to Jonathan Franzen’s essay in The New Yorker (see CL #1506, Sept. 9) have often been quite emotional—this one by Carl Safina is more sober (Medium).  (It includes a link to one of the emotional ones.)  Safina’s reaction suggests that he gave Franzen the careful reading it deserved.  (In case you missed it a week ago, do take this second chance.  You might also want to read Safina’s wonderful books about how animals think and feel.)
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Results of a new poll showing how Americans feel about climate change (Washington Post).  “Nearly 4 in 10 now say climate change is a “crisis,” up from less than a quarter five years ago…..Though Americans are increasingly worried about climate change, fewer than 4 in 10 say they believe that tackling the problem will require them to make “major sacrifices.” And most are unwilling to pay for it out of their own pockets.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1510

Posted on September 13, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Highlights from a 3-day international conference on how to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, sponsored by the University of Oxford (Carbon Brief).  A lot here to look at from the minds of world-class professionals.

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Two of the world’s iconic glacial structures, located near the Equator, are becoming unrecognizable (The Daily Galaxy).  “Climate change is wrecking havoc with two of our planet’s icons: Ecuador’s glacier-studded Mount Chimborazo -the highest spot on our planet- and Peru’s Quelccaya, which until recently was the world’s largest tropical ice cap.”  Complete disappearance is a distinct possibility.  “According to the team’s models, the central Andes can expect to see future temperature increases ranging from 3 to 5 degrees Celsius depending on the region, model and emission scenario, by the end of the 21st century.”
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What if the Arctic melts, and we lose the great white shield? (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).  This interview with an environmental policy expert covers a range of climate issues in a rather blunt manner.  He sees a possibility that Arctic sea ice will abruptly disappear in as little as five years (more likely around fifteen) and when it goes the loss of albedo will give a large boost to global temperatures.  Overall, “When we look at these trends, we realize that everything we’ve learned over half a century of studies shows that the climate problem is getting worse faster than we thought before. Everything shows that the positive feedbacks are kicking in, and we’ve had no luck yet in finding something in the natural system that’s going to slow them down.”
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A report about numbers of persons forced to leave their homes in the first half of this year because of conflicts and natural disasters (Thomson Reuters Foundation).  “Natural disasters such as cyclones and floods caused 7 million people to leave their homes, while a further 3.8 million fled conflict and violence, said the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).”  One cyclone (Fani) caused 3.4 million displacements, viewed as a success in terms of effective warning procedures.  “Many of those forced to flee suffered losses but survived and were ultimately able to return home.“
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A discussion of current realities surrounding the legal status of climate refugees (VICE).  Migration motivated by environmental forces, including climate change, is not covered by international laws designed to protect refugees.  “The climate crisis has already created millions of invisible refugees and could create up to 1.5 billion more in the nest thirty years.  But under international law no country is obliged to take them in…..We have no idea where they’ll go.”
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TIME magazine has devoted an entire issue to climate change, calling it a true crisis.  You can read practically all of it right here in a series of expert opinions about what can be done for remediation.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1510

Climate Letter #1509

Posted on September 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study has important information about the effects of climate change on soil hydrology (Rutgers University).  “Climate change may reduce the ability of soils to absorb water in many parts of the world, according to a Rutgers-led study. And that could have serious implications for groundwater supplies, food production and security,  stormwater runoff, biodiversity and ecosystems…..Water in soil is crucial for storing carbon, and soil changes could influence the level of carbon dioxide in the air in an unpredictable way.”  This finding opens up a need for further study and possible changes to future climate models.

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Deforestation in Africa is a developing hotspot that should get more attention (The Guardian).  “While the greatest losses of forests by area in the years 2014-18 occurred in tropical Latin America, the greatest rate of increase was in Africa, where deforestation rates leapt from less than 2m hectares a year on average from 2001 to 2013, to more than 4m a year from 2014 to 2018…..African timber is exported to China, and this is one of the three dominant causes of deforestation.”
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A Washington Post feature story focuses on places around the globe that have warmed by 2C or more since the late 19th century.  Roughly one-tenth of the surface of the globe is so affected, almost all in the Northern Hemisphere.  The story has many interesting highlights, including numerous references to the disruptive effect of high heat on clams and other sources of coastal food supplies.
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A need for more spending on adaptation to climate change gets high-level backing (EcoWatch).  A special commission that includes some big names has issued a report that outlines five specific areas where investments that can only be provided by big governments would pay high returns, and cannot be left undone.  This is the kind of material that smart politicians should grab onto, even if they are afraid of advocating the strong measures that are designed to cut carbon emissions.
–Here is the commission’s website, which fully lays out the principles and recommendations.  I’m impressed with it.
–A writer for The Guardian is also impressed, but doesn’t want us to forget about cutting emissions.  Actually, governments today do very little to cut emissions, where investments are almost entirely undertaken by private interests that have found ways to profit from new sources of energy.  If governments were to expand their budgets for adaptation they might start to wonder why they are still handing out subsidies for fossil fuel usage and development, or why they are not giving maximum help to those industries that are doing the sorts of things that tend to hold down the need for spending on adaptation, or everyday disaster relief for that matter.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1508

Posted on September 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Somaliland:  A Climate Timebomb (Thomson Reuters Foundation).  A fine documentary about a small republic, population 4 million, not recognized as a nation, that is one of the world’s most desperate situations, plagued by high and rising temperatures and fearsome drought.  According to one elderly lady, now living in a camp, “When I was young it was green, with forests everywhere, and people had enough livestock in every family that could be sold to buy anything they needed…”  The pastoral life had supported her family for generations.

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The forces behind Bolivia’s devastating wildfires (The Ecologist).  The author is a political scientist who has done his homework on the sometimes-strange partnerships that are now in control, and sees the consequences.  “In this light, we can see that the fires and deforestation that is occurring within Bolivia is matching up with global agricultural trends, where the agro-state alliance obeys the demands of the multinational food companies…”
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How Brazil’s deforestation could become ruinous for the nation’s farmers and economy as a whole (Mongabay).  The author tells of how the forest acts as a giant water pump, moving rainfall to places where it is badly needed, but would not reach without the overland pumping effect.
–The same author has previously written for Mongabay in more detail about how “a healthy and productive Amazon is necessary for a healthy and productive Brazilian economy.”
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Carbon emissions from the logging industry are far greater than recognized (New Scientist).  Independent studies have found that accounting rules differ from those of agriculture by failing to adopt a life-cycle approach, and are thus entirely inappropriate.  “If they were, Talberth says logging would turn out to be one of the top three or four sources of carbon emissions globally.”  It was also learned that switching to smarter industry practices could change the outcome in a highly positive way, turning the life cycle of lumber production from managed forests into a large carbon sink.

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Multiple efforts are underway seeking unconventional solutions to the climate change quandary (Business Insider).  This story has a review of eleven such strategies that are quite imaginative:
–Here are a few more ideas, from a lab at Stanford University:
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1508

Climate Letter #1507

Posted on September 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What climate change and future heatwaves mean for a city like Phoenix (VOX).  Phoenix is a good example because it is so hot to begin with.   The article covers a lot of ground with interesting material, making one key point that is often overlooked:  “But the biggest threat from a heat wave may be a power failure. In addition to losing efficiency in power plants, power lines have a diminished capacity when heated to high temperatures, and equipment like transformers and inverters see a higher failure rate.”

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A wrap-up of Alaska’s hottest-ever summer (CNN).  The high points are well-covered, and illustrated.   One thing is a real surprise:  “According to the European Space Agency, melting Alaskan ice has contributed more to sea level rise than Greenland, Antarctica or any other part of the world.”
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New information about the way lakes around the globe are responding to global warming (University of Basel).  Researchers found an unexpected effect in relatively small and shallow lakes, which make up approximately half of the global lake surface:  “…the pronounced thermal stratification entails that the deeper water layers do barely mix and are poorly ventilated, which can lead to prolonged anoxia. Under these oxygen-free conditions, methane production by anaerobic microorganisms is enhanced.  All in all, global warming increases the greenhouse gas potential of lakes, as expected. However, this has less to do with the warming directly, and more to do with increased oxygen depletion at the bottom of these lakes.”  Because of the relative strength of methane over CO2 as a greenhouse gas, this phenomenon may actually increase the overall global warming potential of these lakes.
–The study has open access and is quite readable:
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The current state of electric power production in the US, and where it is heading (USA Today).  This highly informative article is properly critical of the planned overreach of future gas-fired expansion, which could still submit to cheaper renewable alternatives.  Among the discussion points there is a quote in the story from the renowned Michael Mann that should not be missed:  “The world needs to reduce its carbon emissions rapidly – by 50% within the next decade – or face the prospect of a global temperature rise of more than 2.7 degrees within decades…..That’s enough warming to kill off the coral reefs, melt large parts of the ice sheets, inundate coastal cities and to yield what Mann calls “nearly perpetual extreme weather events.”  Does anyone really think global emissions will be reduced 50% in the next decade?
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A previously underestimated mass extinction event has been upgraded to a major (New York University).  This happened about 260 million years ago, caused by a massive flood-basalt eruption.  “Massive eruptions such as this one release large amounts of greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide and methane, that cause severe global warming, with warm, oxygen-poor oceans that are not conducive to marine life…..In terms of both losses in the number of species and overall ecological damage, the end-Guadalupian event now ranks as a major mass extinction, similar to the other five.”  The event currently underway, fully extended, thereby drops to number seven.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1506

Posted on September 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Expanded insights into the effects of Amazon wildfires (Phys.org).  This article is full of unusual information about the effects.  It also has a new satellite view of fire locations, the total of which has now exceeded 100,000 for the year.

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–Writing for The Conversation, a professor explains why individual fires that are now of relatively small size in terms of area burned over will become considerably larger in the future as the landscape becomes more desiccated.
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In Queensland, Australia, rainforest acreage is being consumed by wind-driven bushfires that have gotten out of control (The Guardian).  Aggravated by dry conditions, the situation is said to be unprecedented—and it is still early in the dry season.
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A new marine heatwave has formed in the northeast Pacific, similar in appearance to the “hot blob” that started in 2014 (The Guardian).  Some are fearing it could persist for many more months, in which case the consequences could be devastating for many forms of marine life.
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There is no plan B for dealing with the climate crisis (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).  Raymond Pierrehumbert is a veteran climate scientist with many journal articles to his credit.  Here he argues that there is no substitute for rapid decarbonization, and that we are already in deep trouble for lack of it.  “Let’s get this on the table right away, without mincing words. With regard to the climate crisis, yes, it’s time to panic.”  His explanation is thorough, including an analysis of all the weaknesses inherent in various plans for geoengineering.  “There is simply no good fix if we fail to stop pumping carbon into the atmosphere….. The only question is how much we will ratchet up the toll of human suffering, and the destruction of the ecosystems with which we share the Earth, before we finally achieve net zero carbon emissions.”
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The novelist Jonathan Franzen does not believe disastrous climate conditions can be avoided.  His article in the latest edition of The New Yorker has attracted considerable attention, including dissent.  For the most part he is critical of the weak human response, which is certainly his right as a novelist.  He also believes science, in the form of the IPCC and its adherents, has understated the risk.  That part is controversial.  Based on everything I have learned from doing the daily research for these letters I think he is quite accurate on both counts, which makes his advice, while not imperative, at least worth considering.
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How do you move a big city hundreds of miles in order to avoid flooding? (Climate News Network).  We’re about to find out by watching Jakarta, with a population over 10 million, where the decision has already been made.  In this case factors other than climate change ruled in favor of immediacy, but other city managers that are keeping a sharp eye on sea level will no doubt take an interest in the proceedings, and its cost.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1506

Climate Letter #1505

Posted on September 6, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study foresees increased frequency of hotter and drier years in the Upper Nile Basin, causing serious water scarcity (Phys.org).  The hot and dry years, now one out of five, which typically result in crop failures, could double or triple by 2080.  An expected increase of about 10 percent in average total annual rainfall would not be able to offset the impact of such an increase in frequency of deep drought episodes.

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–In a follow-up report, the authors of the study describe the way life will change for populations all along the Nile and its tributaries.  “By 2080, the study estimates that as much as 65 percent of the regional population—250 million people—could face chronic water scarcity during excessively hot and dry years.  The Nile Basin is one of several fast-growing, predominantly agricultural regions that are really on the brink of severe water scarcity…..Environmental stresses could easily contribute to migration—and even conflict.”
–There is open access to the study.  The Abstract includes this important sentence:  “By the late 21st century, the frequency of hot and dry years may rise by a factor of 1.5–3, even if warming is limited to 2 °C.” (my ital.) That could be called a relatively favorable scenario compared to the other possibilities that are often looked at.
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A frank discussion of the growing problem of climate migration from Central America (The Conversation).  This was written by a cultural anthropologist who has studied displacement from El Salvador for over twenty years.  She knows the facts and she understands the political complications when large numbers are involved.  “These trends have led experts at the World Bank to claim that around 2 million people are likely to be displaced from Central America by the year 2050 due to factors related to climate change…..The number of displaced could be even higher – up to almost 4million – if regional development does not shift to more climate-friendly and inclusive models of agriculture.”  Their favored pathways are not always friendly.
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Forest productivity and stability are highly dependent on the amount of biodiversity (University of Freiberg).  This has now been established by actual tests performed on 22 separate plots in a long-running experiment.  “The study concludes that mixtures of two and three tree species have on average a 25 to 30 per cent higher productivity than monocultures, and those with five species even 50 percent higher. The differences during a severe dry period caused by the tropical climate phenomenon El Niño were especially pronounced…..these results indicate that to store the same amount of CO2 in biomass, far less space is needed with mixed-species forests.”  It is also a good reason for leaving most old and intact forests untouched.
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How well are renewables doing as replacements for fossil fuel energy? (Inside Climate News).  Their growth has been fast, but not nearly fast enough.  A new report “estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector would have been 15 percent higher in 2018 were it not for the increasing renewable energy capacity. However, it also notes that emissions still rose 10 percent from 2009 to 2019 with the rising global population despite those advancements.”  (Plus the effect of greater energy demand per person due to economic growth.)
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How major oil and gas companies think about and plan for the future (The Guardian).  According to a new study, “Every oil major is betting heavily against a 1.5C world and investing in projects that are contrary to the Paris goals.”  Like any other business, they say they just want to take care of the needs of their customers.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1505

Climate Letter #1504

Posted on September 5, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Why China’s CO2 emissions are growing again (Carbon Brief).  A powerful presentation of a subject of utmost importance for the future climate, with many different kinds of trends clearly charted.  The most important concerns emissions from burning coal, which makes up two-thirds of the total and has resumed rising over the last twelve months. The story’s conclusion:  “China’s energy policies for the next five years, along with economic policies and developments, will determine when the country’s emissions reach a peak. Given China’s role as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, this outcome will also have major global consequences.”

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–A separate analysis of the tensions existing within China that influence policy making.  Ambitions for growth are still running strong and are hard to resist at all levels (Inside Climate News, republished from Financial Times).
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Niger, one of the world’s poorest countries, is being swamped by flooding (Phys.org)  The rainy season in a band that crosses the center of Africa is extra heavy this year, causing food shortages and fear of a cholera epidemic in a country that is otherwise mostly desert.  Photos.
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Temperature changes are closely linked to the collective health of entire ecosystems (Science Daily).  A new study was especially interested in the role of bacteria in the cycling of nutrients throughout a variety of ecosystem food chains.  “If temperature drives the observed shift in plant and bacterial functioning, ecosystems subjected to climate warming should also experience directional shifts in functional diversity and biogeochemistry.  That shift might happen too quickly for ecosystems to adapt.”
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Public misconceptions about the impact humans are having on the planet (The Ecologist).  This information, not too surprising, was gathered via a poll conducted in the UK.
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Who is profiting from the activity that has led to the fires in the Amazon? (The Atlantic).  As reported by Amazon Watch, which has been active in the area for over twenty years, “foreign investors have enormous influence over what happens in the Brazilian Amazon … Big banks and large investment companies play a critical role, providing billions of dollars in lending, underwriting, and equity investment.”  The author of this article has checked out the details and provides many names of those involved.
–The website for Amazon Watch:  https://amazonwatch.org/
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1504

Climate Letter #1503

Posted on September 4, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An explanation of the risk from Amazon deforestation and what can be done about it (Yale e360).  Brazil’s leading expert on the Amazon and climate change provides detailed views on how the tipping point is calculated and when the Amazon will become a net source of carbon instead of an important sink.  His ideas for corrective action make sense and should actually not be difficult to undertake.

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What China’s Belt and Road investment plan could mean for global climate goals (Climate Home News).  The plan calls for $12 trillion for infrastructure investment and economic integration in less-developed parts of Asia.  The intense level of activity and growth that follows would likely add enough carbon to the atmosphere to raise global temperatures by 0.7C beyond whatever target is otherwise realized under the Paris agreement.  (Nothing much has yet happened that would make this outcome a reality, but the risk is real.)
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Greenland’s ice faces melting ‘death sentence’ (BBC News).  An expert piece of photojournalism tells many key parts of the story, including effects on local people.
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On the front lines of climate change in the world’s northernmost town (Reuters).  Temperatures in Svalbard have risen faster than anywhere else in the world, now up 4C on average per year.  The projected increase is 7-10C by the end of the century.
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Two prominent scientists give us their thoughts about Hurricane Dorian and its significance.  Michael Mann and Andrew Dessler wrote this for The Guardian, with many insights into the storm’s unusual features.  Their conclusion:  “When all these factors combine in one storm, as it has for Dorian, it is truly a nightmare scenario – and a preview of the climate crisis to come.”
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Who was the first person to realize that adding CO2 to the atmosphere would warm the climate? (The Guardian).  Eunice Foote deserves the credit, three years ahead of the renowned John Tyndall.  “Her work was presented in August 1856 at a prestigious scientific conference in the US, but had to be given by a male colleague because women were not allowed to give talks at the meeting.  Her study was not even included in the conference proceedings, although a summary of the talk appeared in a report about the meeting a year later.”
Carl

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