Climate Letter #1522

Posted on October 1, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new report from Deep Carbon Observatory has all kinds of information about where carbon is located on the planet and how it comes and goes over time as it completes the carbon cycle.  All the data is here, with clear explanations and some extra commentary.  “Carbon, the basis of all life and the energy source vital to humanity, moves through this planet from its mantle to the atmosphere. To secure a sustainable future, it is of utmost importance that we understand Earth’s entire carbon cycle.”

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Experiments show that microbes in soil release more carbon when soils warm, less when they cool (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute).  The tests were performed by moving soil cores up and down the slopes of a mountain over a 3000 meter range, at four different sites.  “Our study clearly shows that global warming is likely to create a powerful positive feedback loop, as the microbes and enzymes they synthesize that thrive under warmer conditions release even more carbon from the soil into the atmosphere…..If one accepts the current projections of a 4 to 8 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures during the next century, tropical soils could cause roughly a 9% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide this century.”
–Comment:  This is the kind of longer-term feedback that Earth Systems scientists worry about, much as they do concerning the possible results of melting permafrost, but find difficult to quantify on a global scale.
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Another new study looked at the way root growth affects the storage of carbon in different soils (Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory).  “This study showed that root activity in relatively young soils could result in carbon being stored by forming new associations between minerals and organic carbon compounds. In contrast, continued root activity in older soils may disrupt existing associations and cause carbon to be released as climate-active carbon dioxide. The results of this study could help scientists determine which soils can better store carbon at depth and which may be vulnerable to carbon loss.”
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A giant iceberg has broken away from the coast of East Antarctica (BBC News).  It’s an entirely natural event, unrelated to climate change, but still exciting to observe because of its massive size, equal to 640 square miles
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The link between climate change and economic growth—a story that needs more telling (The Conversation CA).  Written by a Canadian professor of communication who has done the research to come up with this conclusion:  “Thoughtful and well-researched scholarship makes clear that economic growth and environmental crises are related. And yet non-academic writing linking endless growth economics and climate change is almost non-existent.”  She makes a good case, and, in a more offhand way, I would certainly agree.  The fixation on economic growth as government policy only began in the mid-20th century, or about the same time the current uninterrupted warming trend became a reality.
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How important are airplane flights according to those who take them? (Daily Mail).  “International researchers looked at more than 500 flights spanning a total of more than 21.36 million miles and asked people to rate how important each flight was…..as many as half of all flights are not perceived by the traveller to be of particular importance.” https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7520409/Nearly-HALF-flights-deemed-unimportant-pointless-people-taking-them.html?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1521

Posted on September 30, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An author has much to say about the damage to climate that is caused by animal agriculture (The Guardian).  Jonathan Safran Foer is a novelist who has done serious research in this subject and has just published his second non-fiction book about it.  In this post he writes his own review of why he is doing it and many of the difficulties involved in facing up to the problem.

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—Sierra magazine has published a review of the new book, titled We Are the Weather, along with an interview of the author that sounds out more of his feelings about why this subject has so much importance, yet is widely ignored.
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Basic things that everyone needs to know about palm oil (Phys.org).  The source of the product is a different kind of agriculture that also does grave environmental damage and somehow needs to be controlled because of the rapid rate of expansion of demand for the oil.
–Further commentary on the same subject, but from a different and broader perspective  (EcoWatch, republished from Asparagus Magazine).
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“Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene (PNAS journal).  This paper was published in August, 2018 and reviewed in these letters by Science Daily (CL #1230, Aug. 7, 2018).  Having a blue-ribbon cast of Earth-system researchers in the authorship, it may be the most important paper ever written about the potential longer-term effects of the current warming trend, and I want to be sure everyone has had a chance to read it.  Also, I have just learned that a prominent rating system, called Altmetric, which says it covered 2.8 million “research outputs” in 2018, gave this study a ranking of #4 among the “most-mentioned” scholarly articles of the year—in all sciences.
–Here is the Altmetric website, which has capsule descriptions of all the top 100 research papers of the year.  In the case of Trajectories…, “Researchers have found that without major interventions to curb emissions, global warming could be stuck in a frightening feedback loop before eventually stabilizing. Risks of disastrous climate effects rise substantially if temperatures increase above the predicted “tipping point” of 2 degrees Celsius.”
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The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is home to 18 million people who face displacement from rising sea level (BBC News).  Their plight is described in a 10-minute video:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1520

Posted on September 27, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What the changes in Arctic ice conditions mean for all the rest of us.  This was written for The Conversation by a professor of geography at Loughborough University in the UK.  The presentation is outstanding, with too much interesting information for me to summarize, but I will have a followup comment on one of his charts.

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–This chart comparison of Arctic and global temperature change since 1850 is the best of its type that I can recall.  The behavior of the Arctic between 1920 and 1970 makes it look like the tail that wags the dog as far as the globe is concerned.  Scientists have often struggled over how to explain the bulge in global readings that peaked around 1940 and then reversed itself, all happening before pressure from CO2 emissions became a fully dominating force.  Maybe we are looking at it.
https://images.theconversation.com/files/294341/original/file-20190926-51401-143rmsg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip
Mongabay has an equally solid presentation focused on the disintegration of Arctic sea ice over the last forty years.  There are several different ways of measuring the decline, all clearly described with animated charts.  Don’t miss the one that uses color to show changes in Arctic sea ice age.
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Researchers found more than 65,000 meltwater lakes on the surface of East Antarctica’s ice sheet during the summer month of January, 2017 (Durham University).  “The images showed that meltwater lakes often cluster just a few kilometres from where the ice sheet begins to float on the sea, but some can exist hundreds of kilometres inland and at quite high elevations, up to 1,000m…..We’ve known for some time that lakes are forming in East Antarctica, but we were surprised at quite how many had formed and all around the ice sheet margin…..It’s concerning because we know that in other areas large numbers of lakes draining can fracture apart floating ice shelves, causing the inland ice to speed-up…..Whilst there is no imminent threat to the stability of the ice sheet, our study has shown which areas we should be keeping an eye on over the next few years and beyond.”
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A progress report on the social movement in opposition to climate change (Quartz).  The reality is that the coalition of big governments and big corporations is still winning, and emissions are still rising:  “If all countries achieved their stated goals, we would still be on course for a global average temperature rise of closer to 4°C, compared to pre-industrial times. It will make parts of the world uninhabitable, destabilize many countries, and create hundreds of millions of climate refugees…..The world hasn’t done enough, but we’ve not been sitting still either. We’re in that middle space where the pressure continues to build, even though it hasn’t yet crossed the threshold that helps overcome inertia and liberates the system…..Slowly but surely, the balance is shifting, with many people, some corporations, and a few governments changing sides. Once we hit that social tipping point, the global emissions chart will start to bend downwards.”  That is a good assessment of the current situation and the important impact that social pressure can have if it keeps on growing and everyone starts to pitch in.
–Moreover, as demonstrated here, pension trusts could make a critical difference, if properly motivated (The Ecologist).
Carl

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Climate Letter #1519

Posted on September 26, 2019 by Carl Campbell
This year’s September low for Arctic sea ice extent was second only to 2012 (Carbon Brief).  Two other years, 2007 and 2016, were in a virtual tie for second.  Also, “The 13 smallest summer lows on record for Arctic sea ice have all occurred in the last 13 years.”  Random weather events such as cyclone activity and air pressure patterns help to determine the final outcome for each year.

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An update on the new climate sensitivity models that are being released (Nature Climate Change).  These models predict the upper and lower limits of global temperature change from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 level, which for four decades have largely been set at 1.5 to 4.5C by the IPCC.  The new models are running hotter, as shown in the chart below.  So far just 20 have been submitted out of 42 qualified modelling groups.  The final result is likely to have a bearing on the publication of carbon budgets that humanity should strive for, making them considerably tighter.
China’s transition to renewable energy is losing momentum (Yale e360).  Solar energy installations are expected to drop by about half this year from a peak of 53 gigawatts in 2017.  “And while curtailing subsidies for wind and solar power, the central government has sharply increased financial support for what it calls “new energy” extraction, which includes fracking of shale gas and separating methane from coal. Those subsidies are an important reason behind China’s rising CO2 emissions.”  The country does have higher goals for cutting emissions but doesn’t seem able to get the desired results.
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An interesting new discovery provides a bit of good news related to the future of the “carbon sink” (Smithsonian).  Researchers studying plants growing in marshes found them able to add bulk in the presence of higher CO2 in the air even if they were short of nitrogen.  The plants were sending out more roots in order to seek the extra nitrogen they needed, which helps to build up the soil, and other benefits were also realized.  No attempt was made to seek comparison with vegetation growing in other types of environment.
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How The Guardian reviewed the new IPCC report on oceans and ice (see yesterday’s Climate Letter).  This is a condensed summary that captures the main points.  Perhaps the most important point is that everything going on is accelerating at a rate that is surprising to almost the entire climate science community, yet there are many who say it was written in a form that is generally conservative.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1518

Posted on September 25, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The new special report on oceans and ice has been published by the IPCC.  It is loaded with information related to the process of climate change and the need to engage in policies of abatement.  I will give you links to a variety of stories that have different degrees of depth, starting with a quick introduction from Nature:

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A more thorough analysis with a number of charts is provided by Inside Climate News:
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For an even more thorough review Carbon Brief has performed in its usual high-quality style, with numerous charts and diagrams.  I will have a follow-up comment on the interactive chart showing sea level rise that is found quite a way down from the top.
–The sea level chart is a linear-style graph using historical data taken from six different sources, two of which, both fairly recently published, have results back to 1900, are very closely matched in their course of numbers from the start, and provide exceptional stability in year-to-year movement.  Before completion they both were in close agreement with satellite data, which only began in 1992 and is now accepted as the one-and-only best source of measurement.  What I see from that pair plus the satellite extension is over a half century of perfect curvature on a steadily accelerating upward pathway.  Starting in 1970 it shows sea level rising 50 mm in 30 years to 2000, and then another 50 mm in just 15 years to 2015.  Using only your eyeballs to extend the curve, it is not hard to imagine the following 50 being in place in a little less than ten years, and then?—but that is something best left to someone properly trained.  In any case, I have never before seen such a clear picture of acceleration of the parabolic type for this phenomenon, which certainly should have great interest for many human populations.
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What happens in South America when forested land is cleared to make room for industrial agriculture? (The Ecologist).  Eastern Paraguay has been almost completely converted in recent decades, making it an ideal example.  “There, 94 percent of arable land is used for cultivating genetically-modified monocultures, primarily soy, which is exported as animal feed.”  Local people are desperately anxious to recover the land, which is often being spoiled by drought as well as poor farming practices.
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Two climate crises from the distant past are compared, both involving greenhouse gas emissions, with lessons for the current experience (Geological Society of America).  It’s shown to be best for ecosystem adaptation or recovery when things like a major discharge of carbon emissions don’t happen too quickly.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1517

Posted on September 24, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An update on global CO2 readings from Mauna Loa.  The lower chart depicts daily readings which are now making the annual transition from seasonal decline to a rising trend.  The turning point is always a landmark that helps to establish the current rate of change for this fundamental basis of climate change.  For late September the year-over-year difference from 2018 is right around 3ppm, just as it was last May when the downtrend began, indicating a complete lack of progress toward a needed shift in the long-term trend as depicted in the top chart.  These charts are interactive.  If you unclick the Display check for CO2 in the top chart you get a perfect view of the trend of 12-month cumulative advancement since 1958, absent even a hint of deceleration.

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An important new study shows how the risks of damage from climate change accelerate as temperatures rise (Science).  The study was written by an IPCC expert group asked to “assess the impact of recent climate change (1.0°C, 2017) and the likely impact over the next 0.5° to 1.0°C of additional global warming.”  Members reviewed all of the available scientific literature on the subject, which is copious, and arrived at answers which have not previously been so clearly assessed.  The key finding: “Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the next 0.5°C above today (which will take GMST from 1.0°C to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period) will involve greater risks per unit temperature than those seen in the last 0.5°C increase. This principle of “accelerating risk” is also likely to drive proportionally and possibly exponentially higher risk levels in the transition from 1.5°C to 2.0°C above the pre-industrial period.”  Scientists often talk about how surprised they are by today’s extreme weather events and now they are starting to see how even greater surprises of the wrong kind are likely to unfold in the immediate future as the warming trend continues.  The study concludes that making a powerful effort to avoid this outcome would pay off handsomely.  I encourage you to read the first few sections of this report, which has not received the media attention it deserves.
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Yesterday’s Climate Action Summit fell short of expectations from major powers (EcoWatch).  “China did not increase its commitments under the Paris agreement, India made no pledge to reduce its use of coal and the U.S. did not speak at all.”  Beyond that, a number of notable commitments were made, documented in this report.
Measuring and predicting sea level rise both face a range of difficulties (Carbon Brief).  Many of the reasons are explained quite well in this report.  Sea level is definitely rising, but presently there is not much in the way of confirmation that the rate of rise is accelerating, as many think must happen.  There are even parts of the globe, shown on a map, where sea level is actually falling.
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A large part of Ethiopia has been hard hit by drought (Deutsch-Welle).  About 30% of the country, known as the Somali Region, has experienced chronic drought since 2016, causing the displacement of close to 350,000 people from pastoral communities.  “Our research has strongly suggested that climate change has contributed to this decline [in rainfall…..research has advanced a clear causal explanation linking warming in the Western Pacific to increased rainfall near Indonesia and disruptions in the East African long rains.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1516

Posted on September 23, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A report from the WMO about the recent acceleration in the behavior of climate change (The Ecologist).  This summarized description of all the important trends,  based on inescapable hard data, is being addressed to participants in the new UN climate action summit beginning today in New York.  Everything we fear most is increasing while nothing of the sort is slowing down.

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What the summit meeting is seeking to accomplish and what to expect from various countries (EcoWatch).  Will all of the protests that have been going on, plus the dramatic uptick in media coverage, have a helpful influence on the delegates?
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An expert describes the outlook for ice loss from Antarctica (Phys.org).  “The fate of the world’s coastal regions and the hundreds of millions of people who inhabit them depend on a block of ice atop West Antarctica on track to lift global oceans by at least three metres…..There is no longer any ambiguity. The studies we have in hand tell us that West Antarctica has passed a tipping point. It has become unstable and will discharge all its most vulnerable ice into the ocean. Period.”  However, scientists are still uncertain about how much of that block will go to sea in this century.
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Imelda’s Floods:  Part of a New Normal for Southeast Texas (Weather Underground).  “Climate change is leading to heavier extreme rains as well as slower-moving tropical cyclones…..there is no doubt that the region’s most intense rains are getting even more intense…..Flood mitigation & larger scale disaster planning is crucial…..This known risk not going away.”
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Data-based evidence of how climate change helps drive migration from Central America (NBC News).  “Research compiled one year ago by Customs and Border Protection pointed to an overwhelming factor driving record-setting migration to the U.S. from Guatemala: Crop shortages were leaving rural Guatemalans, especially in the country’s western highlands, in extreme poverty and starving.”  In addition to the loss of personal food supply, what is by far the most important cash crop, coffee, has been devastated by the multi-year drought.
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From Peter Sinclair, a definition of Swanson’s Law, the solar industry’s equivalent of Moore’s Law in data processing:  “Swanson’s Law is the observation that solar PV panels tend to become 20 percent cheaper for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume.”  The graphic evidence that is shown is pretty amazing.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1515

Posted on September 20, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New worries about the future rate of sea level rise, for reasons originating at both poles:

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New findings show that surface meltwater speeds the flow of Antarctic glaciers, affecting sea level rise (University of Sheffield).  “Surface meltwater draining through the ice and beneath Antarctic glaciers is causing sudden and rapid accelerations in their flow towards the sea…..The effects of such a major shift in Antarctic glacier melt on ice flow has not yet been incorporated into the models used to predict the future mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to sea level rise…..As atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, we expect to see more surface meltwater than ever, so such behaviour may become more common in Antarctica.”
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A new explanation for the increase in meltwater runoff from Greenland’s ice sheet (Inside Climate News).  As summers grow hotter, massive amounts of water are just running off the surface instead of percolating downward and refreezing.  “These interior regions of Greenland didn’t use to run off, so you didn’t have to worry about them in terms of sea level rise…..Every time we look, we see changes that suggest more rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet than we thought 20 years ago…..the tipping point, beyond which the Greenland Ice Sheet would continue disintegrating, could be reached twice as fast as estimated.”
–From a highly-regarded senior scientist:
“There is no question now that we’re seeing melt from both Greenland and West Antarctica that is far ahead of schedule relative to what most models previously predicted,” said Pennsylvania State climate scientist Michael Mann. “Only a decade and a half ago, the IPCC was predicting a foot or so of sea level rise by the end of the century. Now, we can no longer rule out 6-8 feet by the end of the century.”

A report covering the harmful algae blooms being found in inland waters all over the US (The Guardian).  The incidence just keeps going up—this year’s outbreaks are up 22% compared with a year ago.  High temperatures and excess rainfall are key contributors while agricultural chemicals lay the principal groundwork.
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What high heat does to the human body (The Conversation).  Written by an Australian professor, this story has lots of unusual information, all worth keeping in mind.
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An account of things now happening in China (New Republic).  Efforts to tackle the climate crisis are in place, but face many challenges.  In short, “Can China’s environment, indeed the global environment, sustain the consumption habits of one billion middle class Chinese?”  The article also draws interesting comparisons between approaches taken by the world’s two biggest emitters of carbon, the US and China.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1514

Posted on September 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A report from a coalition of more than 200 Iowa scientists (Iowa Public Radio).  It’s mainly about the prospect of temperatures in the state getting much hotter in coming decades.  “I would say we are on the road to leaving an uninhabitable planet for our children…..It’s like we see things moving in slow motion and we think we’ll always have time to act. But we don’t anymore.”

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Researchers have tallied the total direct health costs caused by a wide range of ten specific severe weather events that occurred in one year in the US (American Geophysical Union).  “Our research shows that health-related costs added at least another 26 percent to the national price tag for 2012 severe weather-related damages….. The NOAA annual extreme weather cost estimates do not include health costs.”  The authors note that the true costs related to health are likely substantially higher but cannot be evaluated for lack of being recorded, and that yearly totals related to similar kinds of extreme weather events have likely been rising since 2012.
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Scientists have found a way to explain the rapid rise in global temperatures during the PETM (University of Michigan)  Physical evidence for both the rate of rise in temperatures and the rise in greenhouse gases during this era has always seemed to be poorly correlated in terms of standard theories of climate sensitivity.  This team simply applied the new cloud development processes that work well in today’s climate models and found a good fit when the extreme numbers that characterize the Early Eocene are introduced.  “For the first time, a climate model matches the geological evidence out of the box — that is, without deliberate tweaks made to the model. It’s a breakthrough for our understanding of past warm climates.”  There are also some implications relevant to the current situation that we need to watch out for.
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Some thoughts about the relationship of air pollution to global warming (Carbon Brief).  The main point made by a new study is that there is no chance of a large spike in temperatures as a result of the air suddenly becoming much cleaner.  Thus, no matter how aggressive we are about ceasing to burn fossil fuels there will always be net benefits, which is nice to know.  The authors do acknowledge that “we believe that man-made aerosols have offset a significant amount of greenhouse-gas warming up until now…..perhaps in the region of 0.5 to 1C,” which has helped to keep us cool up to this point by reducing the amount of solar energy that can reach the surface.  I suppose that sooner or later that effect would be reversed, but it could always be offset for awhile by geoengineering with artificial reflectors of some sort.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1513

Posted on September 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
What the new generation of climate models is all about, and why they matter (Carbon Brief).  I am reposting this from my letter of last March 22 because it offers a keen perspective on how this field of climate research has progressed over the past couple of decades.  It will even let you hunt down scores of older reports from scientists cover a broad range of estimates, all of which have gotten some kind of attention, mostly rejected.  The newest models have been designed in ways that make them harder to reject.  They will provide the “foundation” of the next IPCC report, due out in 2021, and perhaps have an influence before then as the word gets out.

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A second report on what the two new published models represent (The CNRS—or The French National Centre for Scientific Research.)  Their report tells us more about the process, and clearly notes that “the reasons for this increased sensitivity and the degree of confidence to be attributed have yet to be assessed.”  So maybe the IPCC will find reasons for rejection, but as more models from other centers are submitted—and likely to be fairly similar—that may be quite difficult.  Keep in mind that different scenarios of human behavior are being estimated and that future behavior will still determine the final outcome.  The “best” scenario under one of the models, that could hold warming to less than 2C in this century, would require “very significant mitigation efforts and of temporarily exceeding this target during the course of the century.”
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A global progress report on emissions reduction (RenewEconomy).  This link from Climate Action Tracker provides relevant data from all of the world’s large economies, with rankings, and for the world as a whole.  Note that the standards employed are those that were made effective by the Paris Agreement, which presumably will soon be obsolete if the IPCC makes revisions to its climate estimates, as discussed in the stories above.
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A Norwegian analytical group has set up a list of ten vitally important measures of accomplishment that must be met if the targets set in Paris are to be realized (DNV.GL).  They are all said to be possible using current technologies if the willpower is sufficient.  Here again, any changes that might be made in IPCC estimates would be upsetting.  The link has much more energy-related information available.
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A breakdown of all the places where cash that addresses climate change is flowing, both public and private, and why it is not enough (Nature).  In general, “Groups that track the economics estimate that, all told, more than half a trillion dollars a year is going into climate-related activities…..The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that an annual investment of $2.4 trillion is needed in the energy system alone until 2035 to limit temperature rise to below 1.5 °C from pre-industrial levels.”
Carl

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