Climate Letter #1532

Posted on October 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Algal blooms are getting more severe in lakes all over the world (Carnegie Institute for Science).  This has been demonstrated for the first time by a survey based on thirty years of satellite images.  While different factors have affected different lakes, one clear finding was that “among the lakes that improved at any point over the 30-year period, only those that experienced the least warming were able to sustain improvements in bloom conditions.”

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https://phys.org/news/2019-10-lakes-worldwide-experiencing-severe-algal.html

Glaciers in the Swiss Alps are shrinking at a record rate (Phys.org).  According to an annual study, “Switzerland’s glaciers have lost a tenth of their volume in the past five years alone—a melting rate unmatched during observations stretching back more than a century.”  A separate study has indicated that over 90 percent of some 4000 glaciers in the Alps could be gone by the end of this century.
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-swiss-glaciers-percent-years.html

A new global hunger index maps out the countries that have the biggest problems (The Guardian).  The overall index has shown a trend of improvement since the year 2000 but a number of countries have fallen behind.  Nearly all countries that have problems lie within the tropical zone, are poor to begin with, and are being affected by drought, often accompanied by conflict.
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Shell Oil has an interesting way of looking at the future (Reuters).  The company CEO says it wants the world to act faster toward accomplishing emissions reduction, and is ready to cooperate, but puts the onus on governments to make it happen.  “Despite what a lot of activists say, it is entirely legitimate to invest in oil and gas because the world demands it…..We have no choice but to invest in long-life projects.”  And that is what they are doing.
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A September update of global temperatures from James Hansen.  The blue line that continuously represents the last 12 months shows an average that is a bit more than 1.2C above a baseline that roughly equals the  preindustrial norm.  No big move is expected over the balance of this year.  (We still need a strong LaNina event, which has been missing for about eight years, that would cool things down for awhile and put a dip in the blue line.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1531

Posted on October 14, 2019 by Carl Campbell
“Bring back real forests across Europe” (The Ecologist)  All the reasons for reestablishing large natural forest areas in the UK and elsewhere are clearly spelled out by a professional environmentalist.  “It’s not enough to simply have more trees, however, reforestation must take the form of restoring natural forests, not lining up further industrial woodlands.  One particularly strong reason for this is that over the same area, natural forests store 40 times the carbon of plantations.”  (The reference link in the last sentence is timely and also recommended for reading.)

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An update covering Japan’s Typhoon Hagibis, leaving at least 56 people dead (Phys.org).  “Hagibis packed wind gusts of up to 216 kilometres (134 miles) per hour, but it was the heavy rains that caused the most damage.”  The pathway of the eye, as charted, was nearly dead center on Tokyo.
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A new report from the UK calls for major lifestyle changes as the only way to address climate change.  This link carries an early preview from BBC News of a more extensive review that is to be made public later today on a BBC television program, assuring widespread publicity.  As for the content, “Researchers from Imperial College London say we must eat less meat and dairy, swap cars for bikes, take fewer flights, and ditch gas boilers at home,” offered as a demand for stepped-up government action enforcing that effect.
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An even more advanced concept of recommended lifestyle change is proposed by writers for Truthout.  The ideas are drawn from the content of a new book that celebrates the wisdom of Indigenous peoples who have remained closely connected to nature.  Whatever the prospect of transformation in that direction by others of us may be, there is no doubt that isolated Indigenous societies and their lands that still exist could be granted far greater protection from forces of abuse.
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An example of the wrong way to adapt to climate change (The Atlantic).  This story was inspired by the decision to enact a deliberate blackout of electricity for a large number of Californians.  Populated areas in the path of future wildfires face the same kind of costly decisions as those sitting on coastal plains in the path of rising sea levels.
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Bill McKibben describes a practical way to thwart the worst plans of big oil companies and the like (The Guardian).  It’s all about cutting off their financing sources—not necessarily difficult if the right pressures are applied.  “It’s going to be hard enough to phase out the vast existing fossil fuel infrastructure in the years ahead: adding new projects at this point is insane.”  So why should we help them keep on doing it?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1530

Posted on October 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
‘Industrial heat’—a hidden emissions problem that is huge in size and hard to solve (Vox).  David Roberts does a terrific job of explaining a problem that accounts for about ten percent (!) of global CO2 emissions due to human activity.  It comes from creating the high-temperature heat required for production of products like steel, cement and petrochemicals, which largely depends on burning cheap fossil fuels.  Only a few options appear viable, and they are currently expensive.

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The opportunity for generating far more electricity from wind power in the US (Yale Climate Connections).  The author of this excellent explainer, Philip Warburg, has written a book on the subject; here we assess the highlights, and the outlook is encouraging.  “…the U.S. has scarcely begun to tap its vast wind power potential. On land, U.S. wind resources are capable of yielding about nine times the nation’s power needs.  Offshore wind – wholly unexploited to date – could meet nearly twice the nation’s electricity demand.”
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Economic costs of those extreme natural disasters that are the most extreme of all have risen dramatically (Penn State).  Researchers have made a study of the cost distribution of all natural disasters, and found an unexpected result:  “Policies based only on average annual or decadal costs do not account for the increasing impact of the most dramatic events…..Things really ramp up at the top 5% mark…..And when we get to the top 1%, damages increased approximately 20 fold between 1970 and 2010.”
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A super typhoon is striking Japan not far from Tokyo (Forbes).  The storm is especially notable for its immense size.  “The eye of the storm is 55 miles wide alone, and satellite imagery shows the entire storm is currently larger than the entire nation of Japan. Hagibis will be one of the strongest typhoons to directly hit the island nation in decades.”
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Researchers have studied the association between happiness and materialism (University of Arizona).  The conclusion:  “A new study found that people who consume less are happier than those who engage in other pro-environmental consumer behaviors, like buying environmentally friendly products…..The key is to reduce consumption and not just buy green stuff. Having less and buying less can actually make us more satisfied and happier.”  And it helps lower the overall demand for energy, a vital component for addressing climate change in the most effective manner.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1529

Posted on October 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
From the IMF:  A new call for sharply higher carbon taxes (The Guardian).  There is nothing new about the content of the plan, which is based on an idea that has been around for several decades.  What is striking about the reasoning behind the call, based on calculations by IMF economists, is saying that the battle to avoid disaster can only be won by instituting such a plan on a fully global basis.  That is to say, all the other alternatives, tried or untried, are insufficient for one reason or another, but this one could not fail to cause a strong reduction in emissions—if it is actually enacted.  (And without much delay.)

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Bill McKibben argues that increased carbon emissions from methane due to producing and burning natural gas in the US have served to replace all of the cuts gained from burning less coal (The New Yorker).  The full accounting is real, and often gets overlooked.  An unusual chart showing the data is included in the story.
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Demand for coal continues to grow in India (The Ecologist).  It is expected to remain the dominant fuel in the country until well past 2030 in spite of horrendous consequences, e.g., “Over 1.2 million people died in India due to air pollution in 2017, according to the State of Global Air 2019 report.”  There is plenty of active opposition, and it has been helpful, but more change is badly needed.
A vivid account of the changes happening to life in Alaska (Grist).  “From vanished sea ice to skies choked with wildfire smoke to animals appearing where they shouldn’t or not appearing where they should, the impacts of a fast-warming climate were visible everywhere residents looked.”  Many people say they are frightened by so much that has gone awry.
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Scientists now know what caused the atmospheric CO2 level to decline so much in times past when ice sheets were advancing (Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies).  The ordinary ‘biological pump’—where atmospheric carbon is absorbed by phytoplankton and sequestered to the seafloor as organisms die and sink—was greatly enhanced by nitrogen fertilization derived from wind-blown dust.  This is a good thing to know when studying Earth’s climate history, but may not be of much help in solving the problems of today.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1528

Posted on October 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
More accurate calculation of estimates of the oceanic carbon sink (European Space Agency).  Satellite measurements have refined some previous uncertainties in the estimates, which were usually said to be around 25% of the amount of carbon emitted by human activity—after netting out both absorption and outgassing of CO2 gases at ocean surfaces.  The new figure is more like 30%, which implies a reduction in the amount of excess CO2 being absorbed by additional vegetation growth on land.  It also implies a worsening in the rate of ocean acidification.

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–Another recent study, from Rutgers University, found that the growth of sea ice around the West Antarctic peninsula was responsible for an extraordinary amount of CO2 absorption into the ocean in recent decades, a helpful development the authors thought was likely to be reversed in the near future.  “A decrease in the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide could lead to more warming worldwide by allowing more of the heat-trapping gas to remain in the atmosphere.”
–Comment:  Studies like these are a reminder that the ‘carbon sink’ has been of great help in holding down the potential warming effect of our greenhouse gas emissions for a long time now, but cannot be depended on to last that way forever.  The future of the sink is still very uncertain—and very important.
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A perfect example of what future sea level rise means for human civilization, on a sharply condensed timescale (The Atlantic).  “The town of Hasankeyf, Turkey, is one of the oldest continuously inhabited settlements in the world, with evidence of people living there as far back as 12,000 years ago. In a matter of months, most of the ancient town will be abandoned—flooded by a reservoir rising behind the Ilisu Dam, one of Turkey’s newest and largest hydroelectric projects.”  The story is mainly told through photography, which is truly magnificent.
–It’s all happening with great deliberation, in order to satisfy demands for more and more energy.
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“Study of past California wildfire activity suggests climate change will worsen future fires” (Brown University).  According to evidence found in sediment cores, “Fire activity peaked during what’s known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly, a period of unusual heat and drought lasting from about 950 to 1,250 C.E.”  The existence of similar trends now in place “suggests that future fires may be more extensive than we have observed in the last century.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1527

Posted on October 8, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The South Pole has a polar vortex similar to the one in the North, and it can likewise break down (Monash University).  A new study describes how variations in the vortex has implications in the form of extreme weather events in Australia and nearby territory, which are found to be predictable in certain cases.  “The researchers used climate observations from 1979 to 2016 to identify years of strong stratospheric warming (or strong weakening of the polar vortex) and calculated the likelihood of having extreme hot and dry conditions over Australia in those years compared to others…..in the Southern Hemisphere, the polar vortex tended to vary only moderately, with the exception perhaps of September 2002 when a major stratospheric warming event was observed.”  (The next story adds 2019 to the picture, plus a bit more more.)

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On September 6th four of the authors of the above report, then not yet published, warned that a new breakdown of the vortex had just been identified and would lead to numerous extreme weather events around Australia (The Conversation).  “The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002…..its effects will extend downward to Earth’s surface, affecting much of eastern Australia over the coming months.”  This has yet to fully play out, but the scientists said something else that was interesting because it implied effects beyond the immediate region:  “Apart from warming the Antarctic region, the most notable effect will be a shift of the Southern Ocean westerly winds towards the Equator.”  The air those winds carry toward the Equator are actually quite cold—perhaps cold enough to make changes in weather along the paths they follow?

https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080

Now you should scroll down to Climate Letter #1523 on Oct. 2 and look again at how relatively cool the ocean temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were at that time, all the way up to the Equator, a difference great enough to require a good explanation.  If you go to the current Climate Reanalyzer site you will find that the same situation continues to exist today (bottom chart):  https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#sstanom  You should also look at the air temperature anomaly charts which clearly show that air in the SH is cooler now than it was thirty years ago—and has been that way for some time—even though a sizable portion of the air above continental Antarctica is about 10C warmer than before.
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There is one more website for you to check out, called Windy, which has an amazing amount of animated information that is easy to navigate with a little practice, and most fascinating.  It shows brisk winds blowing toward the Equator from the south over large areas of ocean, areas which tend to overlap quite nicely with the coolest patches of surface water seen in the previous chart.  I believe those winds are of a regular sort, but perhaps more powerful than usual in their cooling effect these days.  https://www.windy.com/?0.791,-132.715,3.
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All of this information leaves us with the question of what is causing the surface of the Northern Hemisphere to be so very warm compared with a few decades ago, re both the low atmosphere and the ocean surfaces?  A possible overload of water vapor across much of its atmosphere, of uncertain future duration, is all I can think of at the moment.  (Check out the Precipitable Water charts on the Climate Reanalyzer website.)
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A profile of Canada’s carbon emissions, part of an outstanding series from Carbon Brief.  Everything about this country seems to be different.  Emissions per capita are very high, even higher than in the US, in spite of Canada having two-thirds of its electricity produced from renewable sources.  Exploitation of Alberta’s oil sands is the main hangup—“Oil and gas production is Canada’s largest emitting sector.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1526

Posted on October 7, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A short explanation of how warmer soils accelerate climate change, and the main route to corrective action (Yale Climate Connections).  From a professor of ecosystem ecology, land that has been cleared for agriculture creates a ‘feedback loop’ as temperatures rise, due to increases in the activity of microbes.  “So to keep soil from getting too warm, Crowther suggests restoring grasslands and forests that provide shade.”

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Note:  Once that argument is taken seriously there are likely to be issues needing resolution.  The next story sheds light on the basic issue created by proposals for converting farmland to forests, specifically applicable to Europeans:
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An Environmental Research Letter from IOP Science:  “Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation.”  If expanding forest land is indeed a necessity, and can only be achieved by reducing farmland, something will have to give.  This research group has looked at all the angles, which are explored in some detail, and come to this conclusion:  “This study has shown that satisfying food security and forest area targets requires substantial changes in both the supply and demand sides of the European food system. While technological improvements (through yield and irrigation efficiency improvements) may be achievable in some regions of Europe, shifting to diets with less or no meat consumption will be most critical and challenging in practice.”
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“Why extreme climate scenarios no longer seem so unlikely” (PBS NewsHour).  A panel of scientists examines the potential worst-case scenarios.  You can either watch the video (8 min) or read the transcript.  The program was prompted as a response to recent news about how new climate models are suggesting that IPCC predictions of likely temperature increases may have underestimated the upper limits of probability.
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Peruvian glaciers are rapidly disappearing (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg).  A research team has analyzed losses of mass and area in the current century in glaciers over the entire range of Peruvian Andes, commonly found at altitudes above 4000 meters.  They identified a glacial retreat of 29 percent during the period of investigation, 2000 to 2016.  Also, “A total of 170 of previously 1973 glaciers have even disappeared completely….. Furthermore, they observed a rate of retreat for the period 2013 to 2016 almost four times higher than in the years before.”  Effects were worsened during periods of El Nino activity.
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One way to suck more CO2 out of the atmosphere involves genetic modification of plants (The Guardian).  Scientists at the Salk Institute are taking that approach and have high hopes, mainly keyed to the development of deeper and stronger root systems.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1525

Posted on October 4, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An interesting new determination of Earth’s CO2 level over the past 2.5 million years (Texas A&M University).  This study, released on Sept. 25, has not been widely publicized, perhaps because the methods used were so new to science and the result so unique.  The main conclusion:  “In 1965, Earth’s carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations exceeded 320 parts per million, a high point never reached in the past 2.5 million years…..Our reconstructions show that for the entire Pleistocene period, carbon dioxide averaged around 250 parts per million, which is the same as the last 800,000 years’ values.”  The results of the method are said to match everything known with reasonable certainty from all the different studies of Antarctic ice, including a few “snapshots” of very old blue ice fragments, but vary on the low side from a number of other ways of doing old CO2 estimates.

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–You can read the entire paper at this link, showing comparisons with other methods used to reveal CO2 history.  This methodology could have legs, and I hope to hear about prospects for testing Chinese loess soils that are older yet, if they are viable.
–Also, I want to thank Tim Radford for alerting us to this important study at the Climate News Network website, which has an analysis of something new every day, always worth reading.
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Cold and snowy conditions provide value that is greatly missed when absent (University of New Hampshire).  From a new study, “Winter conditions are changing more rapidly than any other season and it could have serious implications.”  Researchers have detailed the changes over the past 100 years and the problems that have been realized in the ecologies of northern forests.
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A new State of Nature report examines the current state of extinction threats in the UK (BBC News).  The authors claim to know more about the details of UK wildlife than what is known in any other country, keeping track of more than 7000 species through the work of more than 70 different agencies and organizations.  This story has many specific numbers, and they are troubling.  For example, more than a quarter of UK mammals now face extinction.
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Last month was equal to the hottest September on record (Phys.org).  That’s according to satellite data from the EU.  “The data continues Earth’s hot streak, with June being the warmest June ever, July the warmest month in recorded history. August was the second hottest August since records began.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1524

Posted on October 3, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An interview with professor John Holdren at Harvard University (Phys.org).  He covers a lot of ground in this post, most of it treating the same subjects that I look for every day in seeking the latest news about the climate problem.  His comments about the IPCC need to be taken seriously because they reflect the same view expressed by any number of other older professionals in the field.  That means the solutions that are called for, when based on the certified conclusions of the IPCC, are almost sure to be inadequate.  The professor observes that this has been a year of great awakening that an urgent problem really exists.  The interviewer did not ask him to comment on the current degree of willingness of the awakened ones to make the deep lifestyle changes that would surely be needed in order to achieve a satisfactory outcome.  His assessment of the level of risks implied by recent research studies (like the one that follows) is generally consistent with what regularly appears in these letters.

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New research helps confirm previous theories of very high sea level rise during the Pliocene (The Conversation).  The two lead authors, both from the University of Wellington in New Zealand, wrote this review of a newly published study which is hidden behind the usual paywall.  The team used a new method to measure past changes in sea level and came up with a figure of up to 20 meters associated with a period of time from about three million years ago—“we constructed a record of global sea-level change with significantly more precision than previously possible.”  Based on other research that is now well-accepted they go on to say, “The Pliocene was the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were above 400 parts per million and Earth’s temperature was 2°C warmer than pre-industrial times. We show that warming of more than 2°C could set off widespread melting in Antarctica once again and our planet could be hurtling back to the future, towards a climate that existed three million years ago.”  Most of the rise had to come from Antarctica’s ice sheet, and maximum melting of that sheet would have developed during those periods when solar insolation, which runs in cycles over many thousands of years, was making a maximum approach toward the South Pole.
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Extreme wildfires are transforming forestlands into shrublands (University of California – Davis).  New research found that low-to-moderate burning was advantageous for forest health.  “On the extreme ends of the spectrum, unburned areas and high-severity burn areas showed relatively low plant diversity. Five to 10 years or more after experiencing high-severity burns, many forest stands were replaced by shrub fields that supported few plant species.”  Fire suppression policies allowing too much density have often resulted in fires of the severe type.
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The US has a climate refugee problem right now.  In this 2-minute video by Peter Sinclair, renowned climate change journalist Jeff Goodell tells how he recently met some of them on Highway 66 as they were leaving their flood-ruined homes in the Houston area.  He foresees up to 2.5 million persons departing from Florida on the same terms by the end of this century.
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David Wallace-Wells interviews James Lovelock (Intelligencer).  Lovelock, now 100, is his usual crusty old self, with his own unique views of reality.  He believes the planet can be saved, maybe, by a combination of nuclear power and artificial intelligence.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1523

Posted on October 2, 2019 by Carl Campbell
India’s monsoon season has seen well above average rainfall (Reuters).  “The heaviest monsoon rains to lash India in 25 years have killed more than 1,600 people since June…..The monsoon, which typically lasts between June and September, has already delivered 10% more rain than a 50-year average, and is expected to withdraw only after early October, more than a month later than usual…..the total flood prone area in the country has increased in recent decades because of deforestation, degradation of water bodies, and climate change.”

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A new study has used models to describe the consequences of increases in ice-sheet meltwater (The Science Breaker).  Here one of the authors provides a public review of the contents of the study, which has a paywall.  In the North Atlantic the main effect from Greenland’s meltwater, as seen by the study, is that the Gulf Stream is redirected, causing more extreme weather on both sides.  Around Antarctica things are different.  Both the ocean surface and the air above it tend to become cooler, while there is a quite dramatic warming of ocean water below the surface.  “This result is particularly troubling because the Antarctic Ice Sheet is in contact with these regions of the ocean. It suggests a vicious cycle whereby ice sheet melting causes subsurface ocean warming, which causes more ice sheet melting, and so on.”
–Comment:  It is not hard to find evidence in current climate activity that supports these conclusions, particularly in the case of cooling effects that are evident across the Southern Hemisphere.  For some time now both the average air temperature and sea surface temperature for the hemisphere have been registering numbers that are a few tenths below the respective averages that prevailed a few decades ago.  Data can readily be found on the Climate Reanalyzer using this link:  https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom  In all of the charts the Northern Hemisphere is clearly responsible for the bulk of average global warming effects that are now regularly recorded.  There has to be a reason for the difference, and the study above offers one that I think will gain considerable support from the science community at large.  Here is an illustrative image from one of the Climate Maps that shows the world’s current anomaly for sea surface temperature compared with its 1971-2000 average:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_world-ced_sstanom_1-day.png
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Lawns are an ecological disaster (Gizmodo-Earther).  This story is hard to believe because many of the numbers are so large, yet it is impossible not to believe the overall message.  Well done!
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A core Republican constituency may be starting to “see the light” on climate change (Houston Chronicle).  “The National Association of Evangelicals, which represents 45,000 churches nationwide, first called on Christians four years ago to “exert legitimate means to persuade governments to put moral imperatives about political expediency on issues of environmental destruction and potential climate change”…..Since then, the issue has taken on greater urgency for the faithful— as it has for businesses and other interests traditionally aligned with Republicans — as scientists’ warnings become more dire and storms more powerful, destructive and frequent.”  If this movement can grow it is bound to have an effect in Washington before long.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1523