Climate Letter #1552

Posted on November 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The long-term link between peatland drainage and greenhouse gas levels is quantified, and the numbers are troubling (Nature Climate Change).  This is an important study about the past and future projected pace of peatland drainage over the entire globe, which results in steadily reduced capacity for greenhouse gas absorption and considerably increased emissions having human causes.  I can only show you the abstract, and there are no news releases in English except for an announcement by Carbon Brief.  That’s odd because the journal of publication is known to be one of the best.  The subject matter is something that has not been openly accounted for by the IPCC or in any UN action.  In brief, “In 1960 the global peatland biome turned from a net sink into a net source of soil-derived GHGs. Annual back-conversion of most of the drained area would render peatlands GHG neutral, whereas emissions from peatland may comprise 12–41% of the GHG emission budget for keeping global warming below +1.5 to +2 °C without rehabilitation.”  The budget numbers are similar in scale to what we hear, far more often, about the consequences of permafrost thawing.  Of the two, peatland drainage is more capable of being stopped, if anyone pays attention.

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A new study provides improved understanding of why the Arctic is warming so rapidly (BBC News).  “A loss of snow and ice cover are the main reasons for a reduction in the Arctic’s ability to reflect heat, not soot as had been previously thought…..The Arctic region has warmed significantly since the 1980s, up to three times as much as the average seen elsewhere across the globe.”  The albedo effect is an important reason, having a number of different possible causes, all well-explained in this story.
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Hurricanes in North America have become more powerful and destructive in the past century, thanks to climate change (University of Copenhagen).  According to a new study, “the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago. A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American southern and east coasts.”  The researchers had to find a better way to measure physical damage as if the circumstances on the ground were always the same before each storm hit.
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Bangladesh plans to build 29 new coal-fired power plants in the next two decades (Reuters).  Few countries are more exposed to catastrophic effects from climate change, and the people are not ignorant about the underlying reasons, so how can this be possible?  Basically, “Bangladesh had no choice but to burn coal…..Bangladesh’s economy is growing fast and it needs energy. That’s the bottom line. We don’t have the ‘hydro’ option like other countries and our gas is depleting…..Bangladesh had the potential to generate solar energy, but a shortage of space for solar panels would hinder widescale solar projects.”  So—couldn’t a 10% annual growth rate be slowed a bit?
–Meanwhile, why does Norway, a global leader in climate action, keep drilling more oil wells? (The Guardian).
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Record-breaking fires in Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands get little attention (Deutsche Welle).  “The number of fires in Pantanal has broken all records this year, with over 8,000 registered. In September, the authorities in Mato Grosso do Sul said that so far this year 1.3 million hectares had burned down and that a state of emergency had been declared in the region…..the world media does not seem as interested in these fires as in those that ravaged the Amazon.”  Otherwise, the causes and effects are very similar.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1551

Posted on November 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
How impotant is it for global population to be stabilized? (The Conversation).  A British professor gives us his views on a sensitive and complicated subject that is closely related to climate change, but not often openly discussed.  I think he does a fine job of it, well worth reading.

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Climate change is now being recognized as a real problem for the American Midwest (Inside Climate News).  “Think of a Minnesota with almost no ice fishing. A Missouri that is as hot and dry as Texas. River and lake communities where catastrophic flooding happens almost every year, rather than every few generations.  This, scientists warn, is the future of the Midwest if emissions continue at a high rate, threatening the very core of the region’s identity.”  This story is about cities that are looking for ways to adapt.
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Two Australian states have declared a state of emergency over an outbreak of bushfires (BBC News).  Warnings of potentially catastrophic damage have been issued to residents of the greater Sydney area.  Large pats of the continent have been hammered by several years of record temperatures plus a long-running drought.  Australia has a regular fire season that now risks growing longer and more intense due to climate change, according to scientists.
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Ten years later on, a review of the Climategate episode and the damage it inflicted. (The Guardian).  “…since Climategate we have had eight of the warmest years on record; carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise inexorably; and Arctic sea ice levels in summer have reached record lows over the past decade. Occurrences of heavy rainfall and heatwaves have also increased dramatically. The world has continued to heat up dangerously. Yet humanity has done very little to tackle the crisis.  And that raises a critical question: did Climategate play a role in this failure to act?”  Some expert opinions are given.
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The Fed is now considering climate change in making policy decisions (Reuters).  “The U.S. central bank signaled on Friday it may be getting ready to join international peers in incorporating climate change risk into its assessments of financial stability, and may even take it into account when setting monetary policy.”  (No mention here of any reaction from the White House.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1550

Posted on November 8, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study has important information about the way carbon is sequestered in soils (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis).  “A new global assessment shows that human impacts have greatly reduced plant-fungus symbioses, which play a key role in sequestering carbon in soils. Restoring these ecosystems could be one strategy to slow climate change.”  The numbers involved are indeed very large:  “…ecosystems encompassing mycorrhizal vegetation store on the order of 350 gigatons of carbon globally, compared to just 29 gigatons stored in non-mycorrhizal vegetation…..Human activities such as agricultural practices have altered 50-75% of the Earth’s terrestrial ecosystems, transforming natural areas with previously strong carbon sequestering mycorrhizal plant-associations to much weaker relationships…..This study identifies a potential mechanism that could be used to decrease atmospheric CO2 via enhanced soil carbon storage.”

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–The full study is available, and clearly deserves more attention than received so far:
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An iconic Alaskan glacier has started to melt (USA Today).  “Taku is one of the thickest known alpine glaciers in the world, measuring 4,860 feet from surface to bed.”  A glaciologist who thinks Taku should not yet be melting talks about this development, and also about what else is happening to glaciers around the world.
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Aviation emissions have an impact on air quality even larger than on climate (MIT Institute of Physics).  Researchers at MIT have quantified all of the various impacts that result from flying.  “Aviation emissions are an increasingly significant contributor to anthropogenic climate change.  They cause five per cent of global climate forcing.”  When all things are considered, the team found that growth in aviation causes twice as much damage to air quality as to the climate.  They see opportunities for mitigation, but trade-offs will be required to do so.
–Note:  Most estimates of aviation emissions do not include indirect sources and are thus well below the 5% figure quoted here.
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The contribution of plastics to climate change is large and growing (Quartz).  “…recent research has found plastics account for 3.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions…..virtually all plastic is made from oil, gas, or coal. That means at every stage in its life—from extraction, to refining, to disposal—plastic contributes to climate change…..And we are on the edge of a new plastic boom.  The petrochemical industry is set to triple its plastic production by 2050. At that rate, emissions from plastic production alone will account for 15% of global emissions by 2050.”  Plastic waste also emits greenhouse gases as it deteriorates.
–Speaking of plastic waste, this report from the Associated Press is perhaps the most disturbing I have ever seen.  Midway Atoll is right at the center of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
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A comparison of ten different pathways toward the achievement of economic gains through processes of active reduction of CO2 emissions (UCLA).  The main purpose of this new study was to encourage investment in R&D based on a wide variety of practical incentives offering reasonable prospects for gain.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1549

Posted on November 7, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Burkina Faso, a landlocked country in Africa’s Sahel belt, population 20 million, is being overcome by drought and desertification (IPS News Agency).  This fine article paints a clear picture of what that means.  “As time went by, we noticed that temperatures kept unusually rising and the sun became harsher and the rain disappeared. The crops became stunted while others dried out, as the land started to turn into something like sand.”  People have little choice other than migration.  Their situation is not unique.

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A comprehensive review of the current hunger crisis in 18 other African countries (Oxfam).  “More than 52 million people in 18 countries across southern, eastern and central Africa are facing up to crisis levels of hunger as a result of weather extremes, compounded by poverty and conflict…..We are witnessing millions of already poor people facing extreme food insecurity and exhausting their reserves because of compounding climate shocks that hit already vulnerable communities hardest…..The scale of the drought devastation across southern Africa is staggering.”  The report has plenty of details.
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A new study tells us that warmer temperatures projected for South Asia will make conditions much drier than those expressed in prevailing models (IOP Science).  The full study is available at this link but there are no outside reviews online that could provide extra judgment, and maybe it suffers by having only two authors.  It does make full use of a long list of references as sources of information.  If the evaluation is correct the numbers of people who would be seriously affected by water shortages runs well into the hundreds of millions as temperatures rise toward and past 1.5C.  I think the study should be given much more attention.
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Australian farmers are also facing extreme and extended drought conditions (The Guardian).  The one big difference is that they are better off than many who farm elsewhere in terms of having the means to find new opportunities for personal recovery.
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Three authors, writing for The Conversation, add more insights into the meaning of their study of sea level rise in the last interglacial period.  (See the second story in yesterday’s Climate Letter.)  They clearly wish to show support for the theory of ice-cliff instability, which is currently highly controversial, thinking it is the best explanation behind the ability for Antarctica to raise sea level by as much as three meters in a single century—something for which they have found sound geological evidence.  “When these cliffs get very large, they become unstable and can rapidly collapse…..This collapse increases the discharge of land ice into the ocean. The end result is global sea-level rise. A few models have attempted to include ice-cliff instability, but the results are contentious. Outputs from these models do, however, predict rates of sea-level rise that are intriguingly similar to our newly observed last interglacial data.”
They also note that the warming which caused Antarctica to break down, but not Greenland at the same time, was due to strong solar insolation exclusive to the South Pole, per a regular 22,000 year astroomical cycle.  There was no increase in CO2 above 280 ppm at that time, just the same as the high figure for our own pre-industrial era.  Today, with much higher global CO2, and while only cruising in the middle of a long solar cycle, we are getting an equivalent amount of increased warming except that now it is spread out over both hemispheres, affecting the ice sheets associated with both poles at the same time, thereby adding an extra element of danger.  (There are other complicating factors but this one shows an important fundamental difference.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1548

Posted on November 6, 2019 by Carl Campbell
From the EU Climate Service, the warmest month of October ever recorded (Phys.org, news).  The new reading is equivalent to 1.2 Celsius above the pre-industrial average.  September was also a record-breaking month, and July was the hottest single month of all those measured in the years since temperature records began.  Also, “Twenty of the last 22 years have been the hottest on record, according to the UN World Meteorological Organization.”

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New data provides many details of sea level changes in the early part of the last interglacial period (Australian National University).  This is an extraordinary report, having considerable relevance to the current situation, presented with great clarity and credibility.  The news release has all the highlights, too many for me to summarize, plus the full study is available for reading.  The study is sure to receive considerable commentary because it goes so far beyond anything else yet published on the subject.
–Link to the full report:
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A new analysis of all pledges under the Paris Agreement shows three-quarters are not on track (The Guardian).  The analysis of 184 national pledges, with the EU treated as one, was published by the Universal Ecological Fund, headed by a former chairman of the IPCC.  “The current pledges made under the Paris agreement are totally inadequate to put us on a pathway to meet either the 1.5C or the 2C goal,” said the report’s author, Prof Sir Robert Watson, a former IPCC chair and scientific adviser to the UK and US governments. “With just 1C warming so far, we are already seeing some very significant effects. The effects at 3-4C will be very profound on people around the world.”
–This link has access to the full report:  https://feu-us.org/
–Plus, not to be overlooked—Donald Trump has fulfilled his pledge to make America first (The New Republic).  “To date, America is the only country to move to withdraw from the landmark 2015 agreement.”
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“How climate change will transform the global balance of power” (Financial Times, opinion).  Many interesting observations by a professor who will soon publish a book on the subject.  Russia gets special attention because it faces an unusual combination of deep challenges and powerful opportunities.
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“Will plants help make the planet wetter or drier in a changing climate?” (Carbon Brief, guest post).  This was written by four of the authors of a new study that was introduced in yesterday’s Climate Letter and kind of left dangling because there are so many complications and questions that need answering.  The authors are clearly convinced that the public needs to pay attention, and here they offer some explanations that are helpful.  If you just scroll down to the chart called “American Southwest Summer Drought Severity Index” you can see a big reason for their concern.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1547

Posted on November 5, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Scientists declare climate emergency, establish global indicators for effective action  (Oregon State University).  “A global coalition of scientists led by William J. Ripple and Christopher Wolf of Oregon State University says “untold human suffering” is unavoidable without deep and lasting shifts in human activities that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and other factors related to climate change…..Climate change has arrived and is accelerating faster than many scientists expected…..In a paper published today in BioScience, the authors, along with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries, declare a climate emergency, present graphics showing trends as vital signs against which to measure progress, and provide a set of effective mitigating actions.”  (You need to see the paper itself, in the second link.)

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–Here is the paper.  Scroll down a bit to the two figure blocks, open each in a new tab, click several times to expand, and take some time studying.  This is a bird’s eye view of what has been happening to our world over the last 40 years, with unmistakable momentum, showing why the scientists call it an emergency.
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Some islands in the Arctic Ocean had average temperatures 8C above normal for the month of October (The Barents Observer).  “The biggest abnormalities are found in the area of the Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya, as well as further west in an area on the northeastern coast of Greenland…..Practically the whole central part of the high Arctic were at least four degrees higher than normal…..the year of 2019 could end up as the warmest ever registered on the northern hemisphere.”  That helps to explain all the bad news about the high rate of permafrost melting in Siberia.
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Will plants consume more water as the Earth grows warmer? (Columbia University).  A research team argues that this will likely be the case in much of the mid-latitudes when all factors are properly considered.  “For some regions, the latter two impacts—extended growing seasons and amplified photosynthesis —will outpace the closing of stomata. This means that more vegetation will consume more water for a longer amount of time, with the net result of drier land.”  That could often leave less fresh water available for other purposes. (This research should be useful, but it does raise a number of questions that are left unanswered.)
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The latest views of veteran climate scientist Bill McGuire, in an interview with Nick Breeze (The Ecologist).  Bill is famed for his historical research into how major changes in the global climate impact extreme weather events, ice sheets, sea level and movements in the Earth’s crust, including earthquakes.  He has much to say about the current unprecedented situation, always interesting.  On top of everything else, “I don’t think you’ll find a single climate scientist, that if you talk to them in private, who will say that we are going to keep the global average temperature rise below even 2ºC.”
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A new study digs deeply into the relationship between total CO2 emissions and sea level rise (National Geographic).  It starts with the unavoidable consequences of the CO2 that has already been emitted plus the absolute minimum from future expectations through the year 2030.  “Even if all countries hit their Paris targets by 2030 and then stopped emitting carbon entirely, an unrealistic scenario but a useful thought experiment, the world’s oceans will still slosh higher. Under these idealistic conditions, by 2300—about eight generations away—sea levels around the world will be about 3 feet higher than today, the scientists say.”  How much we add to that is a matter of choice, yet to be determined.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1546

Posted on November 4, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Expert analysis of how scientific findings about climate are incorporated into public policy (The Guardian).  The three authors of this article are professors who have studied and written extensively on the subject, including a new book just published.  I think many prominent climate scientists who do field research and publish journal reports would agree with every word.  “For political leaders and business people, we think it is important for you to know that it is extremely unlikely that scientists are exaggerating the threat of the climate crisis. It is far more likely that things are worse than scientists have said.”  Solid new findings that corroborate this view appear almost every week and have commonly been recorded in these letters.

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–Naomi Oreskes followed up this story with some thoughts of her own, also published in The Guardian, in the form of an interview.
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Another expert opinion piece explores the relationship between what Americans are saying and what they are doing, and why there is a disconnect (The Hill).  The three authors teach and do research in behavioral science.  I think their ideas make good sense.
–Along these same lines, Amy Harder wrote a story today for Axios about how hard it has been for her to reduce her own carbon footprint.  Amy is a reporter who covers energy and climate change, is well-committed and does good work.
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The US is formally withdrawing from Paris Agreement but will continue to influence future talks (Climate Home News).  Today’s action take effect one day after the next presidential election.  “Of course, all of this could be quickly overturned if a Democrat won next year’s US election. With climate change the strongest it has ever been on the election agenda, every Democratic hopeful has pledged to re-join the Paris accord. A process, which could take as little as 30 days.”  The Democrats should look at this as an opportunity but cannot get too far ahead of what Americans actually “feel” about the situation, since so many people can easily be frightened by cleverly-stated propaganda from the other side.
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An important technological breakthrough means better and cheaper batteries may soon be on the way (Wiley).  A new type of high-performance cathode would allow the replacement of lithium anodes with sodium or other metals.  “…next-generation batteries are expected to provide higher energy densities, better capacities, and the usage of cheaper, safer, and more environmentally benign materials…..They found excellent electrochemical performances for the non-lithium ions. The sodium battery could be operated at high voltages up to 3.5 volts and maintained a capacity of more than 100 milliampere hours per gram even after 50,000 cycles, and the corresponding magnesium and aluminum batteries were close behind these competitive values, reported the authors.”  All the sources of this information appear to have high credibility.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1545

Posted on November 1, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A fascinating story about smoldering peatland fires (Horizon magazine).  Scientists are just beginning to get a handle on their dimensions and how they operate.  This was written by a professor who is involved in relevant research.  “When we have tried to put together an estimate of the carbon emissions the figures are staggering. We’re talking about the equivalent of between 10 to 15% of anthropogenic carbon emissions. This is more than all the vehicles in the world. This is more than the whole of the European Union…..There is a positive feedback loop between smouldering peat fires and climate change. If there is an excess of carbon emissions in the atmosphere, that leads to drier and hotter soil. Then based on our research, the probability of ignition and the fire size will increase. It’s a self-accelerating mechanism.”

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A new study describes the way climate change threatens future rice production (Stanford University).  “Rice is the largest global staple crop, consumed by more than half the world’s population—but new experiments from Stanford University suggest that with climate change, production in major rice-growing regions with endemic soil arsenic will undergo a dramatic decline and jeopardize critical food supplies…..rice yields could drop about 40 percent by 2100…..What’s more, changes to soil processes due to increased temperatures will cause rice to contain twice as much toxic arsenic than the rice consumed today.”  The experiments were based on a temperature increase of 5C, which the researchers hope will be avoided if societies are forewarned and act accordingly.
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Researchers explain the predicament faced by people who inhabit major river deltas (The Conversation).  The two lead authors of a new study wrote this article for the general public, about what happens when deltas are deprived of new supplies of sediment normally supplied by flowing rivers.  “The world’s river deltas take up less than 0.5 percent of the global land area, but they are home to hundreds of millions of people…..But many of the world’s deltas are now facing an existential crisis. Sea levels are rising as a result of climate change, while deltas are themselves sinking, and together this means the relative sea level is rising extra fast.”  The sinking can be alleviated, but that will require a number of difficult decisions and tradeoffs to be made.
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The power of algae blooms to accelerate the melting of glaciers is said to be underestimated (Reuters).  According to scientists who were interviewed, soot from forest fires that has landed on glaciers cause them to darken; then algae that can feed on carbon in the soot will grow and cause further darkening.  “These are not currently considered in our models for glacier melt and almost certainly will accelerate it further than our estimates currently show.”  Various research papers are underway covering the accelerating effect linked to algae blooms.
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UN food agencies see the makings of a major hunger crisis in southern Africa (reliefweb).  “A record 45 million people across the 16-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) will be severely food insecure in the next six months…..We’ve had the worst drought in 35 years in central and western areas during the growing season—–While southern Africa has experienced normal rainfall in just one of the last five growing seasons, persistent drought, back-to-back cyclones and flooding have wreaked havoc on harvests in a region overly dependent on rain-fed, smallholder agriculture.”  An increase in outside assistance is urgently needed.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1544

Posted on October 31, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new way of accounting for carbon emissions from deforestation raises the total by six times (University of Queensland).  “Usually only ‘pulse’ emissions are considered – these are emissions released the instant intact forest is destroyed…..Our analysis considers all impacts such as the effects of selective logging, forgone carbon sequestration, expanding effects on the edges of forests, and species extinction…..By comparing ‘pulse’ and ‘committed emissions’ with what these forests could have removed from the atmosphere if they’d remained intact until 2050, we determined the real impacts of deforestation.”

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–Note:  I think the authors should have made some kind of allowance for regrowth on this land before 2050.  Their story would be less dramatic, but still meaningful even if the net long-term emissions penalty was merely a double of the immediate carbon release.
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Significant increases in extreme rainfall in the world’s monsoon regions over the past century has been verified.  (Chinese Academy of Sciences).  “Extreme rainfall over the global monsoon regions deserves specific attention as it is more intense than that on the rest of the land and affects nearly two-thirds of the world’s population…..Employing rigorous statistical tests, they demonstrated that the significant influence of global warming on regional extreme rainfall changes is robust regardless of different time periods of analysis, criteria of selecting stations and datasets used.”
–Note:  The global monsoon region is basically located within or near the tropics, where ocean surface waters have warmed enough to furnish the extra evaporation required to feed these rains.  I believe lands in higher latitudes probably get less leverage via that kind of effect from nearby waters.
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Another study has found observational evidence that rainfall rates in tropical storms are increased when wind velocity increases (Princeton University).  “For three hurricane seasons in a row, storms with record-breaking rainfall have caused catastrophic flooding in the southern United States. A new analysis explains why this trend is likely to continue with global warming: Both the higher moisture content of warmer air and storms’ increasing wind speeds conspire to produce wetter storms.”  (This evidence supports older theories that higher wind velocity at the ocean surface, or any other body of water, will increase the rate of evaporation at that surface.)
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A worrisome new report on the decline of insect species and numbers (Technical University of Munich).  “Compared to a decade ago, today the number of insect species on many areas has decreased by about one third…..Before our survey it was unclear whether and to what extent forests were affected by the insect decline…..Since 2008 they measured a decrease of approximately 40 percent in insect biomass in the forests they studied. In grasslands the results were even more alarming: at the end of the study period, the insect biomass decreased to only one third of its former level…..A decline on that scale over a period of just 10 years came as a complete surprise to us – it is frightening, but fits the picture presented in a growing number of studies.”
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The world is “woefully unprepared” for disruptions to mountain water supplies due to climate change (Reuters).  “Mountain-sourced water supplies, which provide about half of all drinking water worldwide, is becoming more unpredictable as warmer temperatures melt glaciers and change precipitation patterns and river levels…..Our infrastructure was built in the 19th and 20th centuries in the mountains and downstream of the mountains and we don’t have that climate any more.”  A conference sponsored by the WMO is engaged in finding solutions, which are urgently needed and likely to be costly.  (The discussion is all about adaptation, not prevention.  It is too late for prevention.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1543

Posted on October 30, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Canadian researchers have detected abrupt degradation of Arctic permafrost (McGill University).  “Prior research in the field has tended to project a gradual degradation of the permafrost, with few direct effects on climate…..We used climate model data spanning the 1970-2100 period to understand probable changes in the Arctic climate and permafrost. What we came away with, was a picture of alarming changes to climate driven by permafrost degradation.”  The consequences lead to an even greater risk of rapidly rising air temperatures and extreme wildfires in the future.

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A new estimate triples the number of people in the path of rising seas (Science News).  “Sea level rise this century could flood coastal areas that are now home to 340 million to 480 million people…..That’s roughly triple the number of people estimated to be at risk using previous coastal elevation data…..The global threat from sea level rise and coastal flooding is far greater than what we thought it was.”  The new estimate was based on upgraded satellite imagery that better detects land elevation without interference from objects that exist above the land, which otherwise tend to overestimate the result for land alone.
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The False Comfort of Higher Seawalls (The New Republic).  (This story about the problems faced by coastal communities was written before the data in the above story was published.)  It describes how current infrastructure that was planned to hold back coastal flooding has been found inadequate for many reasons.  “In the coming decades, as communities in high-risk locations face larger and fiercer storms, and low-risk locations start to become high-risk locations, disaster preparedness will become a top issue for many governments. The data from global warming’s early years—and storms—suggests policymakers might want to update their toolkits.”
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Relief agencies say they are running out of money (OZY).  Requests for donations appear to be rising faster than the resources, and donors, while basically trying to be selective, are subject to both confusion and fatigue.  “But the new weariness isn’t a one-off, and it’s hitting the world’s most populated region at a time the U.N. is warning that climate change-related humanitarian crises are set to explode in numbers and scale.”
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An overview of recent findings in the way biodiversity is changing, and the implications for extinction (Climate News Network).  The most interesting result of recent research is that overall species richness is not changing much in different ecosystems but is rapidly being reorganized:  “that is, as some creatures or growths vanish from a cloud forest or an estuarine mudbank, the space they occupied is colonised by newcomers more comfortable with change…..as environments change, so does the mix of local species. Some migrate, some adapt, some invade. Overall, the richness of the local population may not change a lot…..on average, 28% of species were being replaced each decade…..the numbers of species in any local ecosystem might remain stable but the variety of life overall could still be diminished…..As such, a sixth mass extinction could still be happening while local scale richness shows little change.”
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1543