Climate Letter #1562

Posted on November 26, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study has important findings tied to the greening effect of higher CO2 levels (Los Alamos National Laboratory)  Adding CO2 to the atmosphere helps make plants grow, even while temperatures are rising.  However, rising temperatures produce more drought, which in some cases can be extreme, and extreme drought is very bad for plants.  “Analysis shows that not only will droughts become more frequent under future climates, but more of those events will be extreme, adding to the reduction of plant production essential to human and animal populations…..For plants living through mild or moderate droughts, the situation is not as dire. The problem is that more of the droughts that come will be the extreme ones.”  (There is no mention of how an uptick in wildfires might add to this effect.)

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–A separate but related study gets into the physiological details of how forests adapt to the combination of higher CO2 levels and less water supply.  Some do it better than others.  (University of California – Santa Barbara)
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A new UN report about the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere shows deep concern (Carbon Brief).  Emissions keep growing, with no sign of a peak, leaving the idea of a limited 1.5C increase virtually out of reach.   “By 2030, the UNEP report estimates that emissions will be 27% and 38% higher than is needed to limit warming to 2C and 1.5C, respectively…..This means that while global emissions are still far too high to keep warming well-below 2C, very high emission outcomes with 4C or more warming are also increasingly less likely.”  This review is full of information that explains the nature of the problem and what must now be accomplished in order to correct it.
–The Executive summary to the UN report, showing still more critical information, is available at this link:
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A wildlife conservationist has much to say about the current wave of mass extinctions (Mongabay).  He recounts the history of human responsibility, beginning 70,000 years ago, and brings it up to date, with the current period being marked by an acceleration.  He offers plenty of reasons for why we should care, mostly in relation to our own good.
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A new way to capture CO2 from any air or gas stream has been developed at MIT (Anthropocene).  “Engineers at MIT have now created a device to trap carbon dioxide that is much less energy-intensive and costly than today’s technologies…..it could be used to scrub carbon dioxide from factory and power plant flue gases or even directly pull it from the atmosphere…..The system uses about one gigajoule of energy per ton of carbon dioxide captured. Other existing methods can use up to 10 times that much…..the electrodes should cost tens of dollars per square meter to produce, and could easily be made in large quantities using roll-to-roll processing techniques.”  With further progress this could become exciting.
–The journal of publication has open access for this study, which is mostly quite technical.  From its conclusion:  “It is projected that further optimization of the ESA process can be obtained through refinement of the electrode chemistries and their assembly into compact adsorption devices to address a wide range of CO2 mitigation strategies.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1561

Posted on November 25, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Compelling evidence that El Nino events are getting significantly stronger (Georgia Institute of Technology).  Records have been gathered from indicators found in coral reefs, going back 7000 years.  “What we’re seeing in the last 50 years is outside any natural variability. It leaps off the baseline. Actually, we even see this for the entire period of the industrial age…..The team found the industrial age ENSO swings to be 25% stronger than in the pre-industrial records….. the stronger El Ninos are part of a climate pattern that is new and strange.”  This suggests the possibility that even stronger swings will be coming, along with the kinds of damage they are known for.

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How climate change is causing devastation all over America.  Inside Climate News has put together an outstanding documentary covering many of the events that have actually happened, and how lives have been deeply affected.  The work consists of an extended set of videos and essays that you can pick and choose from.  The overall message is pretty clear, that the growing pattern of risks has reality and hardly anyone is safe.
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Global consumption of coal-fired energy will be down this year for the third time since 1985.  This analysis by Carbon Brief has all the details of how it happened and what it means.  The chart does not yet give evidence of a reversal into a true long-term decline, but there has been enough of a slowdown since 2013 to indicate that a peaking out period may finally be here.
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For people living in Pakistan, everyday life now depends on what happens to their fast-melting 7000 glaciers (NPR).  There are immediate dangers from flooding and landslides for hundreds of thousands who live among them.  Lower down, more than 200 million people in the Indus River valley depend on them for supplies of fresh water.  “By 2050, you’ll get less and less water.”  That valley, with its many fertile farms, experiences some of the hottest summer weather anywhere on Earth.
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New research opens the door to lightweight electric vehicles and aircraft (Texas A&M University).  What this basically means is that batteries could be made of materials strong enough to be built into the structural composition of the vehicle.  This is known as “multifunctionality,” and the benefits would be enormous.
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How sustainable are the world’s food systems? (International Center for Tropical Agriculture).  Scientists have selected twenty indicators covering all aspects of a nation’s food system and applied them to 97 countries around the globe, rating each with a relative score.  Results are shown on a colored map, which you need to expand with a click to complete the information.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1560

Posted on November 22, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New information about Earth’s climate history from two million year old ice cores (Princeton University).  “Gas bubbles trapped in the cores — which are the oldest yet recovered — contain pristine samples of carbon dioxide, methane and other gases that serve as “snapshots” of prehistoric atmospheric conditions and temperatures.”  The research found no evidence of CO2 levels being higher than about 300 ppm over that entire period, which has been marked by a constant pattern of advancing and retreating glacial ice cycles.

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A picture of how all parts of the globe heated up during the month of October, and more (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal).  Dan is a meteorologist with 32 years of experience, and a passion for Earth Science.  I especially liked his second chart, which shows how the course of global temperatures has developed over the last 11,000 years.  We were well on the way toward a new ice age until the last two centuries came along.
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New sources of data show the relative importance and rapid growth of CO2 emissions from cement production (Earth System Science Data).  The processing of cement, known as “carbonate decomposition” releases prolific amounts of CO2, exceeded only by the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes, including deforestation, with respect to human activity.  Emissions have grown faster than fossil fuels for the last two decades, now at a rate equal to four percent per year by comparison—or, in terms of gigatonnes, 1.5 to 37.5.
Is the current fire season in Australia without precedent? (The Guardian).  The continent has a long history of devastating bushfires, leading to controversy over whether this one is the worst.  When all available information is put together it’s clear that this year wins, and climate change offers the best reason why.  Moreover, “I guess the most concerning thing to emphasise is it’s not over. We’re not even into summer yet.”
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When people change their lifestyle by cutting consumption, in order to build a healthier planet, can they be better off as a result? (Norwegian University of Science and Technology).  A scientific study was designed to find answers to this question, and the results are encouraging.  Here is the title to the study: “Happier with less? Members of European environmental grassroots initiatives reconcile lower carbon footprints with higher life satisfaction and income increases.”  You can read all about it in this post.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1559

Posted on November 21, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Report from the UK:  A surge of public demand for action on climate change (The Guardian).  “A YouGov poll found that more than half the country backs a national target of zero carbon emissions by 2030, a policy that as recently as a year ago was offered only by the Green party. Other polls suggest that two-thirds of the country believes the climate crisis is the biggest issue facing humankind, and that it has overtaken the economy on voters’ list of concerns.”  This story examines the many implications, which were unexpected.

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An update on the Australian wildfires (BBC News).  “Fire conditions classified as “severe” or higher have affected all six states in the past week. Several states have faced “catastrophic” levels of danger.”  The fire season has grown longer, heat extremes have increased and droughts have intensified, all of which are earmarks of climate change.
–One town in Australia is being hit repeatedly by massive dust storms caused by the same heat and drought (The Guardian).  The dust is said to originate as topsoil from regional farmland.
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A new report on the scientific definition of a climate emergency by David Spratt (Climate Code Red).  David is an Australian who has studied and written about the climate change problem for decades.  “When human-caused warming passed 0.5°C in the 1980s, we departed Holocene conditions and started on a foolish adventure: to see if human societies could exist and flourish in climate conditions modern humans have never before experienced.”  Now we are starting to get real answers, and still more answers have yet to appear.
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Some coral reefs are naturally protected from bleaching and mortality when ocean surfaces have warmed (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology).  Researchers have found that deeper sections are not exposed to as much heat as the upper layers in the presence of cooling currents that sometimes occur.  “The resulting analysis suggests that the presence of internal waves reduced heating, particularly in deeper portions of coral reefs, by up to 88% during the 2015-2016 El Niño. The duration of severe heating events likely to totally kill corals was also reduced at some sites—by 36 to 50%—or prevented entirely at others.”
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A mammoth solar energy project is being planned by two Australian billionaires (Renew Economy).  The $20 billion project would supply cheap electricity to the city of Singapore from solar farms in Australia via underwater cable.  “Cannon-Brookes says he is confident that it would be possible for storage technology to be delivered at such an unprecedented scale, despite pushing the limits of current technology and engineering.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1558

Posted on November 20, 2019 by Carl Campbell

Oil and gas production plans are completely out of step with Paris climate targets (The Guardian).  A new analysis, issued by the UN in association with a coalition of research organizations, does not provide any forecast of what kind of … Continue reading →

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Climate Letter #1557

Posted on November 19, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New research raises important questions about the effectiveness of freshwater lakes as a carbon sink (The Conversation).  The lead author of a new study provides a public explanation of current findings in this field of study.  It seems that about 25% of decaying plant matter on land passes through a lake before releasing carbon that ends up in the atmosphere.  Part of that carbon gets stuck in the bottom of the lake or as particles in the water.  What happens next, as climate conditions cause many things to change, is subject to possible changes in how much of the carbon received by lakes makes its way into the atmosphere, and how quickly.  “New research conducted with my colleagues in Cambridge, Germany and Canada suggests that emissions from freshwater lakes could double in the coming decades because of climate change.”  That sounds ominous, but there are still some questions not yet ready to be answered.

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Extreme weather events in Australia and West Africa are caused by shifting temperatures in the surface waters of the Indian Ocean (The Guardian).  The phenomenon and its effects are compared to the El Nino/La Nina cycle in the Pacific but get much less attention.  This article has a good explanation of how it all works and how it is rapidly becoming more dangerous.  Highly populated countries in West Africa are especially vulnerable:  “What we are seeing from the current record events is large-scale flooding across the region. Entire swathes are under water, affecting 2.5 million people.  And putting it in the broader picture of the climate crisis, this flooding is coming on the back of two droughts. What we are seeing, and what we are going to see more of, is more frequent climatic shocks coming. And all that is on top of the violence and conflict that has already displaced many of the people involved.”
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An explanation of how nitrous oxide contributes to climate change (The Conversation).  This article was written for the public by four of the authors of a new study.  It is full of information about the third most important greenhouse gas (after CO2 and methane but excluding water vapor, which exists via feedback to warming created by the primary greenhouse gases).  “Nitrous oxide (N₂O) (more commonly known as laughing gas) is a powerful contributor to global warming. It is 265 times more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide and depletes our ozone layer…..we found global emissions are higher and growing faster than are being reported.”  Almost all of the increase is related to agriculture, for highly beneficial reasons, but often wastefully.
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How giving up meat helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions (The Economist).  Recent studies provide useful data showing the differences made through varying levels of meat reduction.  For instance, “Going vegan for two-thirds of meals could cut food-related carbon emissions by 60%.”  Health benefits are also rated.  (Note that nitrous oxide is not strictly speaking a “carbon” emission, but is often grouped that way.  It is certainly one of those that would be slowed by lower meat consumption.)
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Restrictions on sugarcane plantations have been lifted by President Bolsonaro in Brazil (Mongabay).  The effect will add further motivation toward increases in deforestation that were already at alarming levels this past year.  Cheap biofuel made from sugarcane will largely be employed in export markets, where users need to be made aware of the extreme environmental damage.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1556

Posted on November 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Lithium supply poses great challenges to alternative energy that must soon be overcome (New Republic).  This article does a fine job of explaining what the problems are, and why they could come to a head sooner than expected.  It also offers several approaches to finding a solution that would reduce the projected demand for lithium, which at the moment looks unrealistically excessive.

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A promising breakthrough in battery technology that should help reduce demand for lithium (University of Wollongong).  Sodium-sulfur batteries are an attractive option for large-scale energy storage.  A laboratory breakthrough in Australia is reported to have overcome major difficulties that until now have discouraged commercial development.  The research results are published in the journal Nature Communications, where they were featured in the editors’ highlights webpage.  The next step for the researchers is to scale up production.  “All our previous papers, including this one, were focused on how to find an efficient host for lab-scale research. The next step for our group is to bring sodium-sulfur batteries from lab-scale to industry-scale, and make a real application for this battery system.”
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The rapid growth of international trade adds to the difficulty of striking an effective global climate agreement (Foreign Policy).   The author explains some of the generally obscure reasons behind how this connection stood in the way of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and has continued to affect decision-makers right up to the present day.  He also starts out with an ironic picture of how the climate change that excessive trade helps to produce may end up disrupting the trading system.  For example, current port facilities could all be swamped, just like so many other things, by a combination of ferocious storms and fast-rising sea level.
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After slowing down for about thirty years wind speeds are now picking up (Princeton University).  It’s happening in mid-latitude regions where most wind farms are located.  “Extending their findings to wind power generation, the researchers calculated that a typical wind turbine receiving the global average wind would have produced about 17% more energy in 2017 than in 2010. And using climate indices to project future wind speeds, they predicted a 37% increase by 2024.”
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Many climate scientists are changing their personal behavior in response to the information they help produce (Scientists for Global Responsibility).  This post has the results of a straw poll that was taken, with 153 responses.  The practices these people are following can serve as a practical guide for anyone else who understands the problem as well as they do, or just takes it as seriously.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1555

Posted on November 15, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Severe food shortages have arisen in Afghanistan, affecting over ten million people (ReliefWeb).  Several million are expected to reach an Emergency status during coming winter months, and many of these live in places that are hard to reach for assistance.  The past growing season has been plagued by drought and abnormal rainfall, leaving farmers with a shortage of seeds available for planting in the spring.

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Studies are seeing a rise in “climate whiplash” due to higher temperatures, with more to come (Yale e360).  These wild weather swings pose real danger to inhabitants.  This story has explanations of how they develop plus a number of recent examples.  For example, “The weather can become so hot, so fast that it quickly sucks large quantities of moisture out of the soil and can lead to major crop losses. Flash droughts occurred across the southern United States in late September, right after torrential rains had soaked the region.”
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The author of a new book about the jet stream provides a quick look at some things of special interest (The Conversation).  The way it wanders around always helps to explain strange weather fluctuations.  When climate change is added to the mix there occurs a whole new set of distortions, including powerful effects in the Tropics.  “And one thing is clear: the stress of increased temperatures and altered rainfall patterns from our destabilising climate will leave us even more vulnerable to the weather patterns brought by the whim of the wandering jet stream.”
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Methane leakage from coal mines is now recognized as a serious climate threat (The Guardian).  New studies are providing better data from sources where collection is normally difficult.  One key finding is that “deeper coal seams tend to contain more methane than shallower seams, while older seams have higher methane content than younger seams…..China’s enormous number of coalmines, of which many are more than 100 metres deep, means it is by far the largest source of coalmine emissions.”
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The future course of climate change is heavily dependent on how much coal is burned in China and India (Reuters).  This opinion piece employs statistics pulled from the new IEA report.  India must a way to sharply limit growth, where tonnage is expected to almost double by 2040, and China, today’s greatest consumer by far, must cut usage 60% by that year, if the Paris climate goals are to be met.  “This would require a major change in policy direction in both countries, something that would be difficult to achieve, both politically and financially.”
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An award-winning Indian author, Amitav Ghosh, has interesting things to say about different perceptions of the climate crisis in the East and West (Deutsche Welle):
Carl

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Climate Letter #1554

Posted on November 14, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new report published by The Lancet medical journal describes the rising health risks associated with future climate change (VOX).  The annual report has more than 100 contributors from 35 international institutions, tracking 41 health risk indicators.  It shows how a child being born today will be affected at every stage of future life.  Also, “The authors said that the findings this year are particularly significant…..In 2019, this is the first time that we feel as though we can say actually these health impacts have arrived in full.”

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–Here is a link to an official overview of the report, plus the full report itself, from the publisher:  http://www.lancetcountdown.org/2019-report/
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How greenhouse gases are making Australia’s wildfires worse (Climate News Network).  The author of this piece was a sheep farmer who has experienced the worst effects and taken a close look at the science behind it.  What he has learned:  “The trouble is that the dry high pressure cells are becoming more frequent and more intense because of growing heating in the sub-tropics, which are increasing in aridity.”
–Another treatment of the Australian bushfire problem has been provided by Phys.org, based on interviews with a number of scientists, under the heading, “Ten ways climate change can make wildfires worse.”
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Hydroelectric energy is not always environmentally friendly (American Chemical Society).  “Currently, hydropower contributes two-thirds of the electricity generated from renewable sources worldwide, with thousands of new hydroelectric facilities either planned or under construction across the globe…..However, a new study reveals that the climate impact of hydropower facilities varies widely throughout the world and over time, with some facilities emitting more greenhouse gases than those burning fossil fuels…..New hydropower facilities in Western Europe were estimated to have near-zero climate impacts, whereas those in Western Africa yielded climate impacts greater than coal and natural gas plants over all timescales.”  The study has all the details and surely needs the attention of those responsible for their creation.
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Details of a bill under study by the US Congress that would put a tax on carbon (The Atlantic).  Economists at Columbia University believe it would, if enacted, slash CO2 emissions in the US by almost 40 percent within a decade, and toxic air pollution as well.  Proceeds from the tax would go toward payment of dividends to everyone.  “In 2020, every adult with a Social Security number would receive a monthly check for $50, the study projects. But after a decade, those same checks would come to roughly $275 a month, or $3,300 a year. Children with a Social Security number would receive a check half that size.”  This idea has been around for decades, and sounds great, but passage for some reason seems to be difficult.
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Blast furnaces used for making steel can now be fueled with hydrogen in place of coal (Renew Economy).  The technology has been successfully demonstrated in Germany,  Planning is underway for full-scale industrial application.
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“African Development Bank decides not to fund Kenya coal project” (Reuters).  Nor does the bank have plans to finance new coal plants in the future.  Could this be a sign of a more common trend?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1553

Posted on November 13, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An update on Australia’s bushfires (The Guardian).  It’s one of the worst outbreaks ever, and still very early in the fire season.  “They won’t have this out for days, weeks, months. Unfortunately the forecast is nothing but above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall over the next few months and we’ve still got summer around the corner.”

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An update on the rapid progress of climate change in the Alps (OZY).  Temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average,  “As peaks lose their shiny blankets of snow, which reflect heat, the darker colored mountains emerge and absorb heat faster, speeding up the process.  Because of that, the Alpine region’s glaciers are expected to melt by the end of this century.”  One observer has seen a 10% loss of glacial mass in the last five years.
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Venice is being flooded badly by annual high tides (EcoWatch).  “This year’s flood comes just one year after the city also saw major flooding in the fall…..St Mark’s Basilica is flooded for the second time in 2 years…..Before 2018, it happened 4 times in over 900 years.”  There is great structural damage as a result.
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The oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice is disappearing twice as fast as the rest (American Geophysical Union).  Direct observations have seen large blocks carried off by currents to open sea locations where rapid melting is facilitated.  That kind of activity should speed up the arrival of completely ice-free summers.
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The new World Energy Outlook 2019 was published today by the International Energy Agency.  The full document is 810 pages long.  This summary from Carbon Brief has a clear explanation of how the report should be interpreted, based on three different assumptions about how government policies will affect the future course of events.  The chart-work is excellent, and I strongly recommend that you take some extra time studying this material, knowing that IEA projections in the past have been carefully prepared and have largely proven to be realistic even though the rapid progress made by renewable energy sources have often been underestimated.
–How past work of the IEA has been subjected to criticism, with answers given by its officials (Reuters):
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A Canadian professor who calls himself a realist talks about the cold, hard facts that seem to elude the wishful thinkers of the world (The Tyee.ca).  For example, he has a chart showing how the annual increase in demand for electric power is still greater than the total output of solar energy, by a wide margin.  Moreover, “two years’ demand increase absorbs the entire output of solar and wind power combined.”
–Here is part 2 of the professor’s full report, which came in today.  He describes 11 key steps that need to be taken if humanity really gets serious about slowing or reversing the damage being done by greenhouse gas emissions.  (I have no argument with his way of thinking and analyzing.)
Carl

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