Climate Letter #1572

Posted on December 12, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The Arctic Report Card from NOAA, released yesterday, has an extremely troubling section about how permafrost is melting and releasing carbon to the atmosphere (Arctic Program).  This was written in the form of an essay by a scientist who is deeply involved with many others in permafrost studies.  It summarizes the present state of knowledge in a specialty that has extraordinary interest among climate forecasters.  Here is the key highlight:  “New regional and winter season measurements of ecosystem carbon dioxide flux independently indicate that permafrost region ecosystems are releasing net carbon (potentially 0.3 to 0.6 Pg C per year) to the atmosphere. These observations signify that the feedback to accelerating climate change may already be underway.”  For perspective, humans are currently releasing about 10 Pg (short for billions of metric tonnes) of carbon to the atmosphere each year by burning fossil fuels.  The permafrost release, if the calculations are correct, would be adding another 3-6% to that total, and growing, with no visible means of stoppage. Only a decade or two ago this type of release was just getting started.  There is plenty more carbon where that comes from in existing permafrost sites, readily available for future release if warming continues.  The essay in this post is clearly written and is followed by 17 references to past studies of a prominent sort.  (The IPCC, which to date has not accounted for any effects from permafrost carbon release in its carbon budgets, will surely be called upon to respond in one way or another.)

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–Also from the main Report Card source, here is an outline of all the other highlights, with links to essays similar to the one above, plus a 3-minute video summary that pulls no punches:
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What is meant by the terrestrial carbon sink, how is it measured, and why is it important? (Chiba University – Japan).  A new study has been published showing how much progress has been made toward getting proper answers to these questions, including a description of the five primary processes that establish the sink.  Since this sink inhales about 30% of all human-based CO2 emissions the rationale behind the study is completely sound:  “The recent reports from the IPCC concluded that new land-use options to enhance this terrestrial carbon sink are needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate. Yet, it is important to understand the best science-based estimate of where atmospheric CO2 is fixed in terrestrial ecosystems today, and our study makes a significant step in that direction.”
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What should be done with abandoned agricultural land? (Yale e360).  “Abandonment of rural lands has become one of the most dramatic planet-wide changes of our time, affecting millions of square miles of land…..This change doesn’t appear to have affected global food supply, at least not yet, because the land lost was marginal to start with, and farming elsewhere has become more productive.”  Those are interesting facts.  Just as interesting is the observation that “grasslands and rangelands can prove more resilient than forests for carbon storage, according to a 2018 study from the University of California at Davis. That’s because they store carbon largely underground, where it is less vulnerable in drought- and wildfire-prone areas than the above-ground carbon stored in trees.”  These lands offer an attractive option, and not difficult to accomplish.
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By some measures, 2019, not 2016, will be the warmest year of the modern era (Open Mind).  This work was produced by the same individual who created the sea level analysis in yesterday’s letter.  This time he makes an adjustment to all of the yearly temperature averages since 1950 by eliminating the influence of extraordinary fluctuations, including the extra warming due to El Nino events.  Four out of five principal data sets would then end up with 2019 in first place, as 2016 is demoted.  Even with no adjustments, and no El Nino boost to help out, this year is likely to finish second to 2016 in four out of five series.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1571

Posted on December 11, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The 2019 Arctic Report Card has been issued by NOAA, as summarized by Inside Climate News.  As in all recent years the message is all about trends and statistics that are troublesome, going well beyond the total impact of gobal warming that is seen in the rest of the world.  This year there is a special focus on regions being hit the hardest, where the Bering Sea area stands out.  Suffering among many species of wildlife is rampant, causing much concern for indigenous hunters who rely on them for their own sustenance.

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—Reuters has more to say from the NOAA report about America’s fisheries in the Bering Sea:
–A separate study, published by the Royal Society, details research indicating that the loss of oxygen is directly responsible for the deterioration of cod species in the Baltic Sea.  (Also, see CL #1569 for a review of a major report that covered deoxygenation of the oceans on a global scale.)
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Greenland is losing ice seven times faster than in the 1990s (University of Leeds).  An international team of 96 scientists has done an exhaustive study and come up with that startling result, even after excluding the peak loss years of 2011 and 2019.  The current rate of melting that they found will have to affect IPCC estimates for sea level rise by the end of the century.  The study did not attempt to predict further increases in the rate of melting, which  many of the scientists surely suspect, but maybe not by that same degree, which is pretty extreme over roughly two decades.  Interestingly, “The team also used regional climate models to show that half of the ice losses were due to surface melting as air temperatures have risen. The other half has been due to increased glacier flow, triggered by rising ocean temperatures.”  Another study published just a week ago (CL #1565) found new reasons to worry about the way surface melting on Greenland was causing unexpected instability via fracturing effects.
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An analysis of sea level acceleration over the last century (Open Mind).  A climate scientist who does advanced statistical analysis on his own time, and has a big following, produced this work which I think is really interesting for anyone willing to dig into it a bit.  The main conclusion one can draw is that the rate of sea level rise, while always fluctuating, is also accelerating, and has been so in a quite regular way since around 1950.  If that same rate of acceleration continues for another half century or more, as suggested by the melting trends recorded elsewhere, the projected curve gets pretty steep when you let your eyeballs trace it upward and off the charts.
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New information about sources of methane, a greenhouse gas which has been steadily rising in the atmosphere since 2007 (European Geosciences Union).  Scientists have found the information they have long been looking for, in an unexpected place—wetland regions in tropical Africa.  The amount discovered, equal to one-third of the total increase between 2010 and 2016, is extraordinarily large, and must be taken seriously in all future methane studies, but cannot be readily extrapolated at that same rate into other time frames.
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The preservation and restoration of mangrove ecosystems has a vital role in mitigating climate change (University of Gottingen).  New research has found physical evidence giving strong support to ideas that have often been suggested but not proven.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1570

Posted on December 10, 2019 by Carl Campbell
An emerging new vulnerability to Earth’s food system has been discovered (University of Oxford).  In a new study, “scientists show how specific wave patterns in the jet stream strongly increase the chance of co-occurring heatwaves in major food producing regions of Northern America, Western Europe and Asia. Their research finds that these simultaneous heatwaves significantly reduce crop production across those regions, creating the risk of multiple harvest failures…..We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heatwaves in major crop producing regions when these global scale wind patterns are in place.”  The warming climate—due to greenhouse gas emissions—is held responsible for the jet stream’s change of behavior.

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An assessment of 78 of Earth’s mountain-glacier based water systems shows that one quarter of the global population is vulnerable to serious losses of supply (Chinese Academy of Sciences).  This important study was conducted by 32 scientists from around the world, who analyzed each system in thorough detail and ranked its importance.  Asian populations were found to have by far the greatest exposure.  Climate change is a critical factor, whereby the temperatures at high altitudes that cause glacial melting are rising at rates well above the global average.
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A different study reviews the general outlook for tropical glaciers across the Pacific hemisphere (Ohio State University).  This story features commentary from one of the authors, the venerable explorer Lonnie Thompson, who is the world’s foremost expert on tropical glaciers.  Glaciers on a mountain on the island of New Guinea could be gone within ten years, and others are sure to follow.  El Nino events, amplified by global warming, are an important factor.
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Storm damage from large hail is increasing in the US, due to changing environmental conditions that are probably linked to rising temperatures (University of Albany).  Researchers have come to these conclusions after gathering information from 38 years of weather data across the nation.
–The study has open access, containing charts and maps that better display how trends are developing and where the greatest impacts are being experienced.
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Is shale gas development worth the cost? (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).  A Carnegie Mellon study has looked at the trade-offs involved from the standpoint of regional economics, and sees such development as a bad deal for the states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.  While there are direct employment benefits that are popular, “the study found that the cumulative impacts of natural gas development on water and air quality, ecosystem, climate, labor markets and public health “are still largely unexplored and unaccounted for in public and private decision-making”….. the study recommends a production tax of $2 for every 1,000 cubic feet of gas to account for air quality and climate change impacts.”
–Also, venting and flaring of natural gas at oil well sites, which has many harmful effects, has increased dramatically in two other states, North Dakota and Texas (Axios).
Carl

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Climate Letter #1569

Posted on December 9, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A major new report shows urgent concern over deoxygenation of the world’s oceans (EcoWatch).  The report is the work of 67 scientists from 17 countries.  The loss of oxygen has two major causes:  nutrient pollution and climate change.  “While a two percent decrease in overall oxygen levels might not sound like a lot, there are environments where a small change in oxygen can make a huge difference…..the oxygen loss was not evenly distributed. Some waters in the tropics had seen a 40 to 50 percent decrease in oxygen. The number of oxygen-deprived areas has also increased, from 45 before the 1960s to 700 in 2011.”  The full story makes a convincing argument in favor of arresting further development of this trend.

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A wildfire near Australia’s largest city is said to be “too big to put out” (Newsweek).  Unless the entire region receives a good rain, “Sydney may be blanketed in smoke for weeks—possibly months.”  The health issues are great, and many people are needing to evacuate.
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The Congo rainforest is under severe threat from several sources of destruction (Phys.org).  This lush rainforest, second only to the Amazon, has a similar vital role in maintaining climate stability of the planet.  It lacks proper protection, and losses from a variety of illegal operations have greatly accelerated.  “Given the current rate of population growth and our energy needs, our forests may disappear by the year 2100.”
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How things went during the first week of negotiations at the UN conference in Madrid (BBC News).  Apparently not too well.  “Up to now these discussions have been led by civil servants, but the arrival of ministers will likely clarify if both can be resolved by political horse trading.”  Pledges that were made in Paris in 2015, and not well-kept, are badly in need of improvement.
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A leading environmental journalist evaluates the middle ground between climate apocalypse and climate denial (Forbes).  His arguments denouncing extreme forms of alarmism are easy to accept, but I think many actual climate scientists have a different attitude about how “wide” the middle ground is when the time comes to communicate their findings to the public.  There may be scientists who are more extreme than others, in one direction or the other, but their extremes seldom match the level of those expressed by various journalists, activists, economists, other authors or academics and so on.  Reputable scientists must always express their findings, and the inevitable associated uncertainties, with as much clarity as possible.  They have a little more freedom in describing the dangers to humanity, if any, or what needs to be done, and most of them simply avoid saying anything controversial.  Journalists have a totally different playing field, more easily abused.
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Scientists who study the Earth System, and the tipping points that could change it, are most deeply concerned about the AMOC ocean circulation (Yale e360).  Fred Pearce has reviewed a recent study about the status of many tipping points, reported in CL #1563 on November 27.  He has interviewed several of the authors to get further clarification of their concerns.  Their biggest worry is ocean circulation, which has weakened about 15% since 1975,  heading toward a possible collapse which threatens to trigger other tipping points elsewhere. “The AMOC stands at the center of tipping-point cascades because of its large-scale heat transport…..A slowdown of the AMOC reduces rainfall over the Amazon basin, increasing the probability of crossing a tipping point there…..It could also mess with monsoon systems in Asia and West Africa, triggering drought in the Sahel. And by bringing warm waters into the Southern Ocean, it would further destabilize ice in Antarctica, unleashing an acceleration in global sea level rise.”  The lack of certainty about when this might happen does not remove the underlying danger, which they believe  is worth taking pains to avoid.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1568

Posted on December 6, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Scientists can now describe the carbon buildup that caused the PETM (University of Birmingham).  “The PETM is the largest natural climate change event of Cenozoic time and an important yardstick for theories explaining today’s long-term increase in the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere as an effect of human industry and agriculture.”  Global temperatures rose 4-5C during that era because of greenhouse gas emissions from volcanic lava flooding that took less than 20 thousand years to complete.  At the current rate of emissions, which is 20 to 40 times faster, we could release the same amount of carbon gases in a much shorter time span, just a few hundred years.  The warming period of the PETM, once established, lasted up to 100,000 more years before the extra carbon was taken back down by natural processes.

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–The study, published by Nature Communications, is available at this site, with open access:
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An update on Australia’s bushfires, extreme heat events and drought conditions (BBC News).  “Authorities confirmed three fires had merged into a “mega blaze” north of Sydney on Friday, covering more than 300,000 hectares…..Many fires have raged for weeks, feeding off tinder-dry conditions from a severe drought which has affected much of the nation.”
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A surprising new study shows that global warming would be much worse if we had not acted to save the ozone layer in 1987 (University of New South Wales).  The same gases that were destroying the ozone layer also had a very powerful greenhouse effect, and volumes were rapidly increasing.  Their potential heating effect, on top of what we actually have, has been calculated by this group.  “New research published today in Environmental Research Letters has revealed that thanks to the Protocol, today’s global temperatures are considerably lower. And by mid-century the Earth will be – on average – at least 1°C cooler than it would have been without the agreement.”            https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/uons-hst120519.php
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Evidence points to unusual warming of ocean surfaces around Antarctica about one million years ago, which by simulation may have lead to extensive ice sheet melting (University of Otago – New Zealand).  “The simulations highlight the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean warming including a minimum of 2.5m sea-level rise in the first 200 years of ocean warming.”  Atmospheric CO2 was well below the current level at that time, which is an annoying reality.  The authors propose a series of local feedbacks to account for both the very high sea surface warming and the simulated melting effect.  It’s an interesting theory, but one can wonder about how quickly it will gain acceptance.
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How much time do we have left to prevent serious climate change from happening? (Climate Home News).  The author makes an interesting argument that decarbonization must be rolling along at an advanced pace no later than 2030, otherwise we will be overcome by tending to the costly effects that will already have been established by that time.  Politically speaking, “We will certainly be dealing with climate change for longer than the next 11 years, but we may have only the next decade to prevent it.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1567

Posted on December 5, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study tells of how the entire globe will be affected by the extraordinary warming around the poles (National Geographic).  This magazine story has a good introduction to an important study that is quite thorough on the subject and blessed by having authors like Richard Alley and Michael Mann who are well-known to the public.  The second link will take you to the study itself, which has open access and is written in a manner that anyone can easily understand.

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–Here is the full study.  Note that it lists 155 other studies as references, an unusually high number, all of which have contributed in some way to the overall understanding.
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Climate models are doing a good job predicting temperature changes from greenhouse gas emissions for periods up to three or four decades (VOX).  A new study has reviewed the results of 17 models that were considered to represent high-quality science forecasts at the time they were issued.  They performed well enough to establish a genuine link between the rate of emissions and their immediate impact on Earth’s air temperature, something that deniers have always claimed to be a fantasy.  Longer-term forecasts made by the same kind of models can reasonably claim to gain credibility from this good showing.  All of the numbers and dates are shown on a chart in this review.
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A new study sees future growth in the powerful damage done by “atmospheric rivers” (Inside Climate News).  “The research…shows how much damage the most intense atmospheric rivers today are already doing, finding that just 10 atmospheric river events caused nearly half the flood damage in the U.S. West over the past four decades, adding up to billions of dollars…..These powerful rivers of water vapor can carry twice as much moisture as the Amazon River and extend for hundreds of miles.”  The full description of these events is fascinating, and their impact is said likely to grow in a warmer world.
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Migratory birds evolve toward a smaller body size as temperatures in their range grow warmer (University of Michigan).  The effect was found in all 52 species that were studied between 1978 and 2016 in the Chicago area.  Forty of the species also revealed a significant increase in wing length.  The internal reason for these changes is not yet clear but the association with temperature is unmistakable.  “The consistency of the body-size declines reported in the new study suggests that such changes should be added to the list of challenges facing wildlife in a rapidly warming world.”
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A sober appraisal of the concerns and complications involved in the adoption of a “degrowth” model for tackling climate change (Elsevier).  The premise, which is gradually gaining more attention:  “If we want to tackle climate change and protect our future on the Earth, societies will need to adopt a degrowth model, in which we consume less, and use fewer materials and resources.”  There is no other way I can think of to quickly reduce the total demand for energy currently produced by fossil fuels.  Would it be disruptive to our way of life?  Absolutely.  This article takes a step toward figuring out how to get more people engaged, and ready to accept whatever changes are required by today’s circumstances.
—Sierra magazine has a more lengthy piece devoted to the same subject matter:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1566

Posted on December 4, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A terrific analysis of various trends in the growth of fossil fuel emissions through 2019 (Carbon Brief).  I urge you to take a little time studying each of the charts, which could not be expressed more clearly.  They all have something to think about, and cause one to wonder what changes will be next.

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For a close look at where this is taking us, the World Meteorological Organization has put together a post that covers all of the major indicators and impacts across the world’s weather system.  This material, like the previous, is based on closely studied observations and assumed to be entirely factual.
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Current national climate policies put the globe on track for a temperature rise of 3C by the end of the century (Yale Climate Connections).  That is just based on policies.  Current production plans of the oil and gas companies through 2030 would add 10% to the emission goals tied to those policies, leading to still higher temperatures.  This is one of the things the current UN conference in Madrid will have to discuss and sort out, along with whatever respect remains in place for meeting a more stringent target of 2C or less.  “According to a recent study published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science, for the world to meet the Paris 2 degrees Celsius target, more than 80% of all proven fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground – by no means an easy choice in any capitalist system or democratic society.”
A new report assesses the likely future impact of climate change on human displacements due to river flooding (Thomsen Reuters Foundation).  “The number of people at risk of being forced from their homes by river flooding could surge to as many as 50 million a year by the end of the century if governments do not step up action to tackle climate change.”  That would be five times the recent average of 10 million, affected in part by population growth.  More intense rainfall and melting of mountain glacier ice are two major reasons for the predicted flooding increase.
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The AMOC ocean current in the North Atlantic is heading toward a tipping point (National Geographic).  The flow began to slow down about a half-century ago, and measured a 15% drop in just the last decade.  The primary cause is said to come from rising inputs of fresh water that hinder the sinking of surface waters, which are growing colder as they move northward, by reducing their density.  Complete stoppage, which would provoke extensive and often dramatic weather changes, is a real possibility.  As Stefan Rahmstorf puts it, “I think we have robust evidence that there is a threshold somewhere out there and we have increasing evidence that the AMOC is actually weakening. Which means it’s moving in the direction of where that threshold is.”
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“Pursuing economic growth at the expense of the environment is no longer an option” (The Guardian).  An agency serving as Europe’s environmental watchdog has a full explanation for that opinion, just provided in a report.  It would apply almost anywhere.  Key details in this post:
Carl

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Climate Letter #1565

Posted on December 3, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Important new information about the effect of industrial aerosols on Earth’s climate (SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research).  Burning fossil fuels adds a great deal of pollution to the atmosphere in the form of particulate matter.  Scientists have always realized how this has a cooling effect at the surface, but are quite uncertain about how much.  It would be a good thing to know because these aerosols will be diminished as the burning rate of such fuels ultimately declines.  Here is what this team has found and concluded:  “The relationship between aerosols (particulate matter) and their cooling effect on the Earth due to the formation of clouds is more than twice as strong as was previously thought. As the amounts of aerosols decrease, climate models that predict a faster warming of the Earth are more probable.”  They do not give us an exact amount of such warming but it could well be significant (maybe around one-half degree C by my own rough estimate).  The study was published by a top-quality journal, and was peer-reviewed, but must still undergo an intense “second level” of peer review by the entire science community because of its extraordinary revision of previous estimates that IPCC climate forecasts have employed.

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–The study has open access, with a few key spots that are not difficult to read:
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This same kind of air pollution is now found to be causing even more varieties of health problems than those already well known (Inside Climate News).  “A new Harvard University study for the first time links hospitalizations for common blood, skin and kidney ailments to short-term exposure to fine particulate matter from fossil fuel combustion and wildfires…..The study shows that the health dangers and economic impacts of air pollution are significantly larger than previously understood.”  The underlying mechanism of these effects within the body is often not clear, and needs further research, but the statistical connection cannot be dismissed—one more reason for humans to stop burning fossil fuels.
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An interview with the lead author of a study published earlier this year, from Tufts University (Phys.org).  His study was entitled, Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action.  It does not have open access but this new interview explores the authors’ main ideas, which have since been picked up by other studies.  The principal message:  “The study underscores, with its novel computational approach, the urgent need for massive global action within a narrow window of just ten years….. the consequences of a failure are drastic, and we are already experiencing those consequences.”  The interview also tells us about some of his personal feelings toward working as a scientist in such a sensitive area, which I find quite admirable.
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Drone-based observations of Greenland’s ice sheet add to concerns about its instability (University of Cambridge).  This study focused on fracture formations under many of the meltwater lakes that are commonly found on the surface in summer.  “These fractures cause catastrophic lake drainages, in which huge quantities of surface water are transferred to the sensitive environment beneath the ice…..the team showed how the meltwater causes the formation of new fractures, as well as the expansion of dormant fractures.”  The results are sometimes spectacular.
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A Danish study has calculated that the frequency of the most damaging kind of North American hurricanes has greatly increased over the last century (Climate News Network).  The researchers used a novel method for assessing the violence of any particular storm, separate from actual reports of economic losses, showing a relative increase in the more violent kind occurring in sync with rising temperatures.  “The frequency of the most damaging hurricanes has increased at the rate of 350% per century.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1564

Posted on December 2, 2019 by Carl Campbell
A new study clarifies the close link between ice shelves and the glaciers behind them (BBC News).  “A new study finds the diminishing thickness of ice shelves is matched almost exactly by an acceleration in the glaciers feeding in behind them.  What’s more, the linkage is immediate.”  As ocean waters warm the shelves are thawed from their undersides, causing the glaciers to speed up and dump their ice into the oceans more quickly, without ever needing to be melted on top by warmer air.  Satellites have established both the actual amount of shelf thinning and the acceleration of glaciers as they fall away from the land.  This should help make sea level forecasts more accurate than before, and perhaps also more unfavorable with respect to timing.

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A Brazilian study provides detailed evidence that deforestation causes losses extending far beyond the damage done through climate change (Climate News Network).  The study is able to express these losses in monetary terms, along with a comparison of winners and losers under current government policies.  “Farmers sometimes take a short-term view that focuses on three or four years of personal profit, but the nation is left with enormous losses. This mindset should go. The paper makes that very clear.”
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An Oxfam report says climate change is the biggest driver of people leaving their homes (CNN).  “Climate-fueled disasters have forced about 20 million people a year to leave their homes in the past decade — equivalent to one every two seconds…..This makes the climate the biggest driver of internal displacement for the period, with the world’s poorer countries at the highest risk…..People are seven times more likely to be internally displaced by floods, cyclones and wildfires than volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, and three times more likely than by conflict…..When you get large populations displaced that’s when you get instability and conflict.”  That’s where we are today, and the future looks even worse.
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“Why clean energy isn’t enough to tackle climate change” (Axios).  Amy Harder wrote this as an advance review of a report from MIT that is due out tomorrow, plus adding some solid ideas of her own.  “Forget renewable energy for a moment. To really fight climate change, the world needs to focus far more on cutting its use of oil, natural gas and coal.”  That is an inescapable fact, and it probably won’t happen anywhere without the public being ready to accept a carbon tax.  All around the world, it looks like the public is not yet there, and thus we keep falling farther behind.
–China’s contribution to this state of affairs is not at all helpful these days:
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A warning from the UN Secretary-General on the eve of an important international conference (ABC News).  He said Sunday that the world’s efforts to stop climate change have been “utterly inadequate” so far and there is a danger global warming could pass the “point of no return.”  The UN has good intentions but no power to make or enforce laws that would be binding.  Everything depends on the political will motivating the world’s largest emitters, and that has to change—quickly.
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A science writer who lives in Canberra expands on the Secretary-General’s remarks—in a less diplomatic manner (The Guardian).  Julian Cribb, the author of eight books, wants everyone to recognize exactly what is happening and who is mainly responsible for continuing to make it worse.  “The world is dividing into two opposing movements: the concerned “survivors” – the young, the old, the wise, the educated, the informed and the pragmatic – and the cynics backing the very global system that will precipitate collapse.”  With so much at stake, might this situation indeed be a fulfillment of predictions labeled “the Battle of Armageddon”?
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1564

Climate Letter #1563

Posted on November 27, 2019 by Carl Campbell
Seven leading scientists say that nine climate tipping points are now ‘active’ (University of Exeter).  Writing for the journal Nature in the form of a Comment, this group represents the highest level of scientists who focus on the impacts of natural feedbacks that are expected to materialize over the long term as the planet grows warmer.  More than half of the climate tipping points they had identified a decade ago are now active, threatening unprecedented changes much earlier than expected.  “…as science advances, we must admit that we have underestimated the risks of unleashing irreversible changes, where the planet self-amplifies global warming.  This is what we now start seeing, already at 1°C global warming…..In our view, the consideration of tipping points helps to define that we are in a climate emergency and strengthens this year’s chorus of calls for urgent climate action.”

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–Their report, written in everyday language, can be read in full at this link:
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A new poll from Pew Research covering differences in how Americans think about climate change, energy and the environment.  Much attention is given to political differences, including a breakdown of differences within the Republican Party, and differences based on age, gender, location and so on.  Very informative.
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About the relationship between global water supplies and agriculture, and its future (World Resources Institute).  The authors use nine graphs to explain why our ability to feed the predicted population growth will likely be limited by the availability of fresh water.  It confirms the understanding that any viable solutions will have to find a way to overcome or get around certain hard and stubborn facts, including probable changes in the globe’s climate.
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New research finds that Lake Victoria has completely dried up twice in the past, and could do so again within a century (Eos).   “Lake Victoria in eastern central Africa supports over 40 million people, the industrial sectors of three large nations, and the largest freshwater tropical ecosystem in the world. New research, however, suggests that the lake might not be around to do all of this in the not-so-distant future.”
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“Carbon Emissions Rise to Highest Level in at Least Three Million Years” (EcoWatch).  This post contains a brief video which I think is quite effective and fully backed by well-qualified scientific studies, all of which have often been reported upon in previous Climate Letters.  References to climate conditions in the Pliocene need to be given more publicity because we are already on the verge of moving into an even more powerful setting with our relentless greenhouse gas emissions.  (This relates to the first story in today’s letter.)
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1563