Climate Letter #1612

Posted on February 12, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Important new information supports estimates of major, rapid sea level rise from ice sheet melting in West Antarctica in the early part of the last interglacial period (University of New South Wales).  “The extreme ice loss caused a multi-metre rise in global mean sea levels — and it took less than 2°C of ocean warming for it to occur.  Not only did we lose a lot of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but this happened very early during the Last Interglacial…..Our study highlights that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may lie close to a tipping point, which once passed may commit us to rapid sea level rise for millennia to come.”  The study was conducted by a large group of prominent scientists and published in a leading journal.  Their method of investigation seems unusual, but to me everything about this work and the results looks credible.

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–Link to the full text, which has open access.
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A new study provides an explanation of natural limits to the ability of a rising CO2 level to enhance additional vegetation growth (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).  “CO2 emissions from human activities play a double effect. On one hand, CO2 causes global warming and on the other, CO2 can stimulate photosynthesis. The increase in photosynthesis can increase plant growth, creating a feedback that can help absorb some of the CO2 in the atmosphere and slow global warming.”  Plants also need nutrients, sufficient quantities of which may often be lacking in the soil.  Phosphorus and nitrogen are dominant in that respect, and the limitations of each have been partially mapped out globally.  The procedure will help to “make more accurate predictions of global warming.”  (Again, very credible, and certainly useful as well.)
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Preview of a new study about the prospect of radical change in the Amazon rainforest (BBC News).  “Results from a decade-long study of greenhouse gases over the Amazon basin appear to show around 20% of the total area has become a net source of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere…..most of the rainforest still retains its ability to absorb large quantities of carbon dioxide…..one portion of the forest, which is especially heavily deforested, appears to have lost that capacity…..Each year is worse…..it could be showing the beginnings of a major tipping point…..In our calculations, if we exceed that 20-25% of deforestation, and global warming continues unabated with high emission scenarios, then the tipping point would be reached…..the new findings suggest that in the next 30 years, more than half of the Amazon could transform from rainforest into savanna.”
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A special report from Carbon Brief about the permafrost “tipping point” makes an important clarification.  What is highly unlikely is that emissions will ever be great enough to cause a runaway greenhouse effect all by themselves, or in the event that all emissions under human control were ended.  In that event they would continue to add gases and warming for an extended period, but these would soon begin to slow down and then stop before everything had locked into a trend of unstoppable thawing.  Past speculation that focused on massive releases from methane hydrates that are extensively buried under permafrost is no longer considered plausible.
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A separate but related report from Eos contains the result of an interview with two lead authors who published a study about methane hydrates in 2019, without open access.  This article includes a great deal of valuable information about the nature, formation and location of hydrate deposits as presently understood.  The authors think of them as potentially valuable, “raising the exciting prospect of simultaneous energy production and carbon storage for a nearly carbon-neutral system.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1611

Posted on February 11, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Conditions are right for another year of heavy spring flooding in US interior states (Scientific American).  What happened last year could be repeated because so much soil is too wet for proper absorption of new rainfall.  Warmer air temperatures that are now becoming commonplace favor a high rate of precipitation.  (This report did not address current developments in the Southeastern states, where soils are also filling up with water over wide areas.)

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High water levels are wreaking havoc around the Great Lakes (Peter Sinclair).  “The five inland seas are bursting at the seams during the region’s wettest period in more than a century, which scientists say is likely connected to the warming climate…..Homes and businesses are flooding, roads and sidewalks are crumbling and beaches are washing away…..It’s never been like this, never…..The destruction is just incredible.”  (I believe all of that water was transported through the atmosphere in the form of vapor from the tropical oceans, which have been warming and evaporating at a higher rate than before.  The upper level winds that carry this vapor have cooperated by changing their configuration pattern between south and north.)
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A possible change of circular wind patterns over the Arctic Ocean could have rapid major consequences for the AMOC and its effect on global climate conditions (NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory).  “Using 12 years of satellite data, scientists have measured how this circular current, called the Beaufort Gyre, has precariously balanced an influx of unprecedented amounts of cold, fresh water — a change that could alter the currents in the Atlantic Ocean and cool the climate of Western Europe…..Scientists have been keeping an eye on the Beaufort Gyre in case the wind changes direction again. If the direction were to change, the wind would reverse the current, pulling it counterclockwise and releasing the water it has accumulated all at once…..If the Beaufort Gyre were to release the excess fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean, it could potentially slow down its circulation. And that would have hemisphere-wide implications for the climate, especially in Western Europe.”  The full story has an unusually long and complicated series of events, but worth the time spent in trying to understand.  It has not gotten much attention.
—Carbon Brief has published a guest post today which explains many things about the nature of the AMOC, its crucial role in climate regulation, and the possibility of a shutdown.  The author does not specifically refer to NASA’s Beaufort Gyre report but is very open to the idea of a tipping point created by a sudden fresh water injection.
–Carbon Brief has also recently published a very lengthy explainer covering all nine of Earth’s major climate tipping points in a detailed way, and generally up to date, with AMOC collapse included.  It is well done and worth keeping on file for future reference as we hear about each of them more and more often.
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The locust plague infesting countries in the Horn of Africa is growing exponentially (UN News Service).  “The infestation in Kenya is the worst in 70 years, while Somalia and Ethiopia are experiencing their worst outbreaks in 25 years, putting crop production, food security and millions of lives at risk…..Somalia and Sudan faced a famine threat in 2017, but communities have also weathered poor rains, drought, and floods in the past two years.  It is these weather events which are creating the environment to facilitate the current locust outbreak…..Unusually heavy rains and increase in the frequency in cyclones in the Indian Ocean have created favourable conditions for the locusts to breed.”  All that weather information, as reported, suggests that climate change may be involved as a factor in the current outbreak, creating the possibility that future outbreaks may occur more frequently, a thought that should be given close study.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1610

Posted on February 10, 2020 by Carl Campbell

The future impacts of climate change in Europe, according to the European Environmental Agency (The Guardian).  The agency has mapped out the details of what will happen if global average temperatures rise to either 1.5C or 2.0C above pre-idustrial and no further, with the focus limited to the flooding, drought, forest fires, sea level rise and storm surges that will affect individual cities and regions of Europe.  Of further interest, and this applies to everyone on the planet, everywhere, “The EEA has concluded it is possible to limit the rise in global temperatures to 2C above pre-industrial levels, as long as greenhouse gas concentrations peak during the next 15 to 29 years.  Meeting a more demanding 1.5 limit requires concentrations to peak in the next three to 13 years. Under both scenarios, there is a 50% chance of overshooting the temperature.”  Note the use of the word ‘concentrations’ as opposed to ’emissions.’  In order for concentrations to peak at some particular level the familiar Keeling curve that is now accelerating upward would have to roll over and stop dead in its tracks, which would require total CO2 emissions from all sources to drop all the way to net-zero, and for all other sources of warming or cooling to also zero out.  (These figures look less liberal than those of the IPCC.)  Perhaps with that in mind, “The agency wants governments to focus on adapting to unavoidable global heating.”  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/10/fires-floods-maps-europe-climate-catastrophe 

–The impact maps and other information from the agency are all available at this link:  https://experience.arcgis.com/stemapp/5f6596de6c4445a58aec956532b9813d

–And here, once again, is the Keeling curve that is supposed to completely stop rising in less than three decades:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html

In Australia, the fires are out but now Sydney and many more places are being drenched by record rainfall (BBC News).   “Australia’s weather agency said 391.6mm (over 15 inches) of rain had fallen in the past four days in Sydney, more than three times the average rainfall for February.  About 100,000 homes are without power, and officials have warned flash floods could be life-threatening.”  (Some towns have reported as much as 27 inches.)
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Four authors of a new study explain the functioning and benefits of the “land carbon sink” (The Conversation).  The sink is simply defined as the difference between uptake and release of carbon dioxide by all of the vegetation and soils around the planet.  It has been increasing at almost exactly the same rate as total gain in CO2 emissions caused by humans since the nineteenth century, absorbing a regular amount each year averaging about 29% of those emissions.  It can continue to do so if we properly protect the forests that do most of the absorbing.  This is a fine explanation, including some numbers that tighten up previous estimates of both kinds of sources and both the land and ocean sinks.  
–The full study has open access:
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Majority of US adults believe climate change is most important issue today (American Psychological Association).  According to a new poll, “As the effects of climate change become more evident, more than half of U.S. adults (56%) say climate change is the most important issue facing society today, yet 4 in 10 have not made any changes in their behavior to reduce their contribution to climate change….. And as the election race heats up, 62% say they are willing to vote for a candidate because of his or her position on climate change.”  That’s something new, and certainly interesting, but will it hold up in November?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1609

Posted on February 7, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A brilliant comparison of CO2 emission trends from burning coal, oil and gas, and how each must change in order to meet budgeted goals (Carbon Brief).  The spotlight is on coal, which has grown the fastest in this century, is by far the biggest source, and must now quickly begin a truly precipitous decline.  A set of charts lays everything out in a perfect way, dramatically exposing the enormous difficulty involved.  “Either action to tackle emissions from fossil-fuel burning must be rapidly stepped up, or the global community must accept warming beyond the levels deemed dangerous in the Paris Agreement – as adopted by consensus among more than 190 countries in 2015.”

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Strong evidence that substantial declines in bumblebee populations are caused by extreme heat waves (Inside Climate News).  The evidence is reported in a new study, based on the extraordinary collection and analysis of more than a half million observations that were variously recorded in Europe and North America since 1901.  “The researchers mapped where the bees are now compared to where they used to be historically, and matched those records with changes in temperature and precipitation…..They are disappearing from areas where it’s getting hotter fast…..We could predict the changes for individual species and communities of bumblebees with surprising accuracy…..The new study also suggests that extreme heat poses risks for other species, including mammals, birds and reptiles. Bumblebees are an indicator species.”  All of them are susceptible to other, more familiar causes of decline; extreme heat waves are now worthy of being classified as a separate and important addition.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05022020/bumblebee-climate-change-heat-decline-migration

A new study has a deep analysis of drastic changes to the Brazilian Amazon involving a combination of deforestation, wildfires and climate change (Mongabay).  Wildfires, other than those set by humans, can increasingly penetrate the rainforest itself as the climate becomes hotter and drier.  “That’s bad news for the region, and the world. Each year, the Amazon removes vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, sequestering it in vegetation and soils, and playing a critical role in the planet’s carbon cycle. But widening and intensifying Amazon fires threaten to permanently remove carbon biomass from the rainforest, turning one the world’s most important net carbon sinks to a net carbon source…..between now and 2050.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2020/02/escalating-firestorms-could-turn-amazon-from-carbon-sink-to-source-study/

A new daily high temperature of 18.3C (65F) has been recorded for the continent of Antarctica (The Guardian).  “The reading, taken at Esperanza on the northern tip of the continent’s peninsula, beats Antarctica’s previous record of 17.5C, set in March 2015…..The lowest temperature ever recorded in Antarctica – and anywhere on Earth – was at the Russian Vostok station, when temperatures dropped to 89.2C (-129F) on 21 July 1983.”
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What happened to the world’s largest iceberg, created from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf in 2017? (BBC News).  This post has everything mapped out as the berg prepares to enter the open sea.  So far it has lost very little of its bulk, but that will soon change.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1608

Posted on February 6, 2020 by Carl Campbell
New findings about ocean currents show human causation and suggest that global climate is affected (Science – AAAS).  Global mean oceanic circulation has been speeding up since the early 1990s, mainly driven by winds, for reasons that in large part cannot be naturally explained.  From the Abstract, “The increasing trend in kinetic energy is particularly prominent in the global tropical oceans, reaching depths of thousands of meters.”  The authors see this as an emerging trend, driven by the heating of greenhouse gases, resulting in a more rapid delivery of heat from the surface to deeper ocean layers—more effectively so in the Pacific than the Atlantic.  (This activity could help to explain why the Southern Hemisphere lags so far behind the Northern with respect to surface warming.)

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–The study has open access and for the most part is clearly written:
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How to comprehend the amount of heat being stored in the oceans, which set a new record in 2019 (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).  Dana Nuccitelli, who helped to popularize the idea of comparing the oceanic absorption to the heat energy from Hiroshima bomb explosions, is the best person to do the explaining.  His group started off with an equivalent of four explosions per second in 2012, but in recent years the number has gone up to five as measurements improved.  “For the record, as of the writing of this article, our climate has accumulated the equivalent of a total of more than 2.8 billion Hiroshima bombs’ worth of heat since 1998.”  Almost all of that energy is still in the water, at various depths, adding new increments of growth year after year.
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A new broad-based climate report shows scientists deeply concerned by overlapping crises that could trigger systemic collapse (Phys.org).  Based on a survey of 200 top scientists, “Climate change, extreme weather events from hurricanes to heatwaves, the decline of life-sustaining ecosystems, food security and dwindling stores of fresh water—each poses a monumental challenge to humanity in the 21st century.  In combination, they have the potential to impact and amplify one another in ways that might cascade to create global systemic collapse.”  What was once mainly treated as a theory is now much closer to reality.
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Certain tropical regions that have acted as a safe haven for a multitude of species over millions of years are now in danger of overheating (The Guardian).  According to a new study, “Species that have evolved in tropical regions such as Australia’s wet tropics, the Guinean forests of Western Africa and the Andes Mountains will come under increasing stress as the planet warms.”  These are places that stayed relatively cool when nearby regions that overlapped with them, and were full of biodiversity, became exposed to dangerous heat waves in the past.  This made it convenient for many species to migrate and further evolve in places of safety.  Current changes mean the places that once were stable are now becoming unstable, leaving few options for further migration.
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How one meter of sea level rise will affect the world’s airports (Thomson Reuters Foundation).  “An analysis by the Washington-based World Resources Institute (WRI) found that with 1 meter (3.3 ft) of sea-level rise, an estimated 80 airports globally would be swamped by 2100.….even if the Paris Agreement goal to limit the planet’s temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times is met, the researchers estimated that 44 airports in low-lying areas could be flooded by likely sea-level rise of about half a meter.”  A number of US airports are exposed and making preparations for adaptation.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1607

Posted on February 5, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Bill McKibben has a trenchant analysis of big government hypocrisy that is in conflict with official climate mitigation policies (The Guardian).  His focus is on Canada but the same attitude, perhaps a bit less egregious, is on display all over the world.  Trudeau speaking:  “No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and leave them there.”  McKibben’s rejoinder:  “There’s obviously something hideous about watching the Trumps and the Putins of the world gleefully shred our future. But it’s disturbing in a different way to watch leaders pretend to care – a kind of gaslighting that can reduce you to numb nihilism.”  (We should not ignore the fact that much of the public, hoping for some kind of economic benefit, is willing to let them get away with it.)

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Big business is now getting the full message about the climate crisis and how it will affect them, in depth (The New Yorker).  The message is being delivered by McKinsey & Company, a giant management consultant firm, based on advice provided by Woods Hole Research Center.  It actually attacks and falsifies the assumptions that underlie the commonly held beliefs about unlimited economic growth.  This article introduces a leading spokesman who seems to be quite effective.
–This link has an introduction to the McKinsey message, including a link to download the full report, which is practically a textbook of climate change:
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Fred Pearce has a great explanation of the meaning of climate sensitivity, the issues that surround it, and why the questions about cloud impact are so critical (Yale e360).  This is a perfect way to follow up the lead story in yesterday’s letter.  Climate sensitivity is not the easiest thing for the public to understand because it is broken up into a number of parts, all of which are subject to uncertainties about what to include, the timing issues, and what the best data is saying about each component.  Fred does a masterful job of laying everything out, with many outside references, well worth all the study time you can give it.  The biggest question in all of climate science (when CO2 is doubled) simply does not yet have an answer that one can rely upon, no matter what so many have kept saying about the finality of ‘plus-3C.’
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Researchers have developed a thorough understanding of “abrupt thawing” of permafrost and have approximated the results, which are highly significant (University of Colorado at Boulder).  “Abrupt thawing of permafrost will double previous estimates of potential carbon emissions from permafrost thaw in the Arctic, and is already rapidly changing the landscape and ecology of the circumpolar north…..Some 20% of the Arctic region has conditions conducive to abrupt thaw due to its ice-rich permafrost layer…..abrupt thawing is fast and dramatic…..Forests can become lakes in the course of a month, landslides occur with no warning…..even though at any given time less than 5% of the Arctic permafrost region is likely to be experiencing abrupt thaw, their emissions will equal those of areas experiencing gradual thaw.”  This study by a group of veteran scientists was published in a leading journal.  While the exact result of permafrost thawing is still unknown, the degree of extra, near-term carbon emissions to be expected from this particular kind of source has never before been given such an accounting.
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A well-illustrated story about three species of “supertrees,” found on three different continents, and their vital role in protecting us from climate collapse (Vox).  “But can we protect them?”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1606

Posted on February 4, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Why scientists are anxious to make improvements in the accuracy of cloud research (NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory).  This fascinating article clearly explains how high the stakes are, following up on the spectacular results of a study from Caltech published in Nature Geoscience one year ago.

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–Link to the Abstract of the remarkable February 2019 study:
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A new study provides details of the way warm subsurface ocean waters are able to accelerate the melting of Greenland’s glaciers from the underside (Alfred Wegener Institute).  Many of Greenland’s glaciers have thick “tongues” that extend many miles out into the sea without breaking off, acting as counterparts to the ice sheet extensions and vast shelves that are common to Antarctica.  Observations have been made showing that these tongues are melting from below, and the process is speeding up, serving to destabilize the glaciers.  This activity is sure to keep progressing as the ocean grows warmer.
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Researchers seek to better understand the mechanisms causing sea level rise during interglacial periods (University of Wisconsin – Madison).  During the last interglacial period, 125,000 years ago, sea level rose to about nine meters higher than where it exists today, while air temperatures peaked at only about one degree above our pre-industrial temperature level—which has now abruptly added a degree.  The behavior of AMOC currents was quite different in the earlier interglacial period and could account for the strong rise.  An argument can be made that we are on a course that will lead to a comparable sort of rise by as early as 2200.  The warming and constant movement of subsurface ocean water is very much in play as a reason.
–Extra comment:  the events of the last interglacial all occurred with a CO2 level contained at around 300 ppm, which we have soundly beaten over just 200 years, along with an increasing air temperature that has most likely not yet peaked.
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Evidence of an accelerating sea level rise along most of the US coastline (The Guardian).  “Of 32 tide-gauge stations in locations along the vast US coastline, 25 showed a clear acceleration in sea level rise last year…..Generally speaking, the sea level is rising faster on the US east and Gulf coasts compared with the US west coast, partially because land on the eastern seaboard is gradually sinking.  Researchers at Vims said that the current speed-up in sea level rise started around 2013 or 2014 and is probably caused by ocean dynamics and ice sheet loss.”
–At this interactive website there are graphs and detailed information about each of the 32 ports, including the latest estimates for sea level increases out to 2050:
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A reduction in air pollution that is due to man-made aerosols is having a large warming effect on winter temperatures (California Institute of Technology).  “Over the past 50 years, the occurrence of extremely cold days has decreased throughout Europe and northern Eurasia, which includes Russia. Combining long-term observations with a state-of-the-art climate model revealed what researchers describe as an “unambiguous signature” of the reduction in the release of man-made aerosols over that time…..This tells us that for winter extremes, aerosols have a greater impact than greenhouse gases…..Because China is expected to enact air pollution regulations that will lead to aerosol reductions over the next two to three decades, the model predicts that a similar effect could also be seen over eastern Asia.”  Science has long predicted such an effect, although not with so much emphasis on winter.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1605

Posted on February 3, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A comprehensive new study reveals how much the planet has been greening, and describes all of the different reasons (Boston University).  In this first of a kind study an international team took a closer look at 250 scientific studies, land-monitoring satellite data and climate and environmental models, and also made field observations.  Much of the information they gathered is relatively new and puts the entire picture of global warming—past, present and future—in better perspective.  There is too much interesting material to summarize, so be sure to give this story a good close look.
https://phys.org/news/2020-01-planet-greener-global.html?

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–The full study has open access and is clearly written. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-019-0001-x#Abs1
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The latest information from West Antarctica’s largest glacier, while inconclusive, eases fears of rapid disintegration (University of Bristol).  Pine Island glacier is potentially more worrisome, near term, than any other on the continent:  “…different model projections of future mass loss give conflicting results; some suggesting mass loss could dramatically increase over the next few decades, resulting in a rapidly growing contribution to sea level, while others indicate a more moderate response.”  The new information shows a number of changes in behavior that on balance favor a loss of mass “not quite as fast as some model simulations suggested.”  Which is very good news.
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Michael Mann, on sabbatical in Australia, notes how the fires are having a strong effect on public attitudes toward climate change (The Guardian).  A public that has been listening to politicians is now less willing to ignore what scientists have to say.  “If there can possibly be a silver lining to the clouds of smoke from the bushfires, it is that they are galvanising public opinion, making it clear that deniers’ and delayers’ rhetoric is a smokescreen to cover for the fossil-fuel industry.”
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Today, “business as usual,” otherwise known as the worst case scenario, is not what it used to be (Inside Climate News).  Based on what humans have already done about cutting emissions, scientists no longer think there is a chance of temperatures increasing by as much as 5C in this century—such as indicated by the familiar RCP8.5 scenario that is commonly used as a standard of comparison along with several other possibilities.  “Based on the best science available today, the authors said, the worst case climate outcome would more likely be a rise of about 3 degrees Celsius in average global temperature by 2100.  That increase…would still spawn deadly heat waves, crop failures and extreme storms, and doom most of the world’s glaciers corals and glaciers. And the world will keep warming after 2100.”  (In fact some new models do see a 5C or more increase beyond 2100 based on physical changes that could occur solely as feedbacks to the warming caused by humans, but these are not well understood.)
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Russian scientists believe they have found the key to making significant improvements in the production of power from nuclear reactors (Tomsk Polytechnic University).  “The proposed thorium hybrid reactor is distinguished from today’s nuclear reactors by moderate power, relatively compact size, high operational safety, and a low level of radioactive waste…..makes it possible to replace up to 95 percent of fissile uranium with thorium, which ensures the impossibility of an uncontrollable nuclear reaction.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1604

Posted on January 31, 2020 by Carl Campbell
The temperature of Swiss alpine river water is rising as fast as regional air temperatures (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne).  “They observed that river waters had warmed by an average of 0.33°C per decade since 1980, and by 0.37°C per decade in the last 20 years.”  This unusual study was focused on local effects, which are serious, but had nothing to say about potential climate impacts.  It certainly raises questions.  What about all the rest of the world’s rivers—are they having the same kind of increases, or not?  Collectively they dump a huge amount of water into the oceans each day, and if all that water is warming at a faster rate than the ocean water on the receiving end, it stands to reason that the latter is already being infected with a faster rate of warming than it otherwise would experience.  Whatever past measurements are available need to be studied, and future programs initiated, so the information gathered could be incorporated into climate models.  A feedback of the unwanted “positive” type would seem to be a possibility.

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Methane being released from the Arctic Ocean is far below the amounts that some have claimed (Stockholm University).  New techniques for measuring actual methane fluxes are clearly superior to those upon which the previous claims were made, often catastrophically large.  “The peak emissions are indeed large but at the same time they are also extremely limited in area…..So this is, I would say, a bit of good news in the global warming story. Yes, there is methane leaking from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. But, at least for now, it is not globally important to atmospheric methane and global warming.”
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Researchers find a connection between rapid weather swings and increased risk of flu epidemics (Florida State University). “….an international team looked at historical data to see how significant weather swings in the autumn months affect flu season in highly populated regions of northern-mid latitudes of the world. They specifically looked at the United States, mainland China, Italy and France…..The issue going forward, scientists noted, is that rapid weather variability is common in warming climates. Having a better understanding of those weather patterns may be key to determining the severity of any future flu season threat. If these climate models are correct, there is an anticipation of increased flu risk in highly populated areas.”
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An analysis of how government-backed loans from G20 nations are used to support fossil fuel projects (Phys.org).  “Rich nations are funneling cash through government-backed financial institutions to provide $30 billion to fossil fuel projects each year that run counter to the Paris Agreement…..The export credit agencies (ECAs) of G20 countries currently provide more than 10 times more state-backed finance to oil, gas and coal projects abroad than they do to renewable energy schemes…..The analysis singled out China, Japan, South Korea and Canada as among the worst offenders, accounting for 78 percent of G20 fossil fuel support from 2016-2018.”  This all happened in the wake of the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.  Now that it has been exposed, will steps be taken to halt the practice?  (The next story reveals a better way to spend the money.)
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A new study uncovers the potential for regenerative agriculture to add more carbon to the soil (Yale Climate Connections).  To date, modern farming practices that strip organic matter from the ground mean that between 20 and 60% of the carbon once stored in the world’s agricultural soils has been lost. According to a leading expert on soil carbon that trend must be reversed, and he can tell us how to do it.  By his calculations, “agricultural land could capture the equivalent of around 20% of annual global emissions.”  Getting farmers to cooperate is a requirement, the key to which will be a system of payments.  There is a growing awareness of this need and activities have been started, several of which he describes.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1604

Climate Letter #1603

Posted on January 30, 2020 by Carl Campbell
The first report of test results at Thwaites glacier adds to concerns about future sea level rise (New York University). “A team of scientists has observed, for the first time, the presence of warm water at a vital point underneath a glacier in Antarctica–an alarming discovery that points to the cause behind the gradual melting of this ice shelf while also raising concerns about sea-level rise around the globe…..suggests that it may be undergoing an unstoppable retreat that has huge implications for global sea level rise…..we observed not only the presence of warm water, but also its turbulence level and thus its efficiency to melt the ice shelf base…..an important result as this is the first time turbulent dissipation measurements have been made in the critical grounding zone of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.”

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Glacial recession throughout all of the mountains of South America has now been quantified, to great dismay (Yale e360).  “Across the Andes, glaciers have lost nearly 3 feet in thickness annually since 2000…..The overall trend, though, is abundantly clear. Andean glaciers — from the small icy regions of Colombia and Venezuela in the north all the way to Patagonia’s glaciated expanses in the south — are rapidly shrinking….. the researchers calculated that the area covered by glaciers in Peru shrank by nearly a third from 2000 to 2016…..Glaciers are vital resources for communities in and around the Andes, where meltwater is used for drinking, irrigation, and hydroelectric power…..No mountain region has lost more ice, relative to its size, than the Andes.”  https://e360.yale.edu/features/andes-meltdown-new-insights-into-rapidly-retreating-glaciers
–The full report contains images that show exactly where the losses are occurring, and their relative size.
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“5 Things You Should Know About the Earth’s Warming Ocean” (The Revelator).  This is a superb educational piece, based on interviews with several scientists who are deeply involved in the latest of relevant research publications.  Today’s oceans, while sequestering much of the heat energy they receive, are still able to promote many kinds of serious impacts.  Removal of all that heat will take a very long time, and there is much still to be learned about what the future implications may be.
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David Roberts investigates the prospects for “social tipping points,” that could halt the advance of climate change, breaking out in a surprisingly sudden way (Vox).  Based on recent studies, he describes six major courses of action that have made progress in a slow and incremental but sadly insufficient manner and must soon accelerate.  “The problem is, climate change isn’t much like same-sex marriage, or cigarettes, or the spread of Protestantism, or any of the historical precedents cited in the paper. It is more deeply rooted in economics, global, and irreversible in a way no previous problem has been. The hoped-for changes are faster, greater in scope, and sustained for longer than any coordinated solution in memory. History isn’t much of a guide.”  While predictions are therefore meaningless, a real awakening has clearly begun; now it needs all the help it can get.
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A new version of hydrogen fuel cell construction is said to both generate more power and lower production costs (NYU Tandon School of Engineering).  Several major automakers across the Pacific are still heavily engaged in fuel cell development even while being frustrated by several challenges.  This discovery may turn out to be just what they are looking for.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1603