Climate Letter #1632

Posted on March 11, 2020 by Carl Campbell
An expanded explanation of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its historical pattern, with a focus on its effects in Australia (The Conversation).  This fine article was written by three of the authors of the study referred to by The Guardian as reviewed in yesterday’s letter.  The study has limited access but here we have a summary of its important content with much graphic material and the addition of a short video that better describes how the Dipole works, and much more.  A key point:  “But previous studies, as well as ours, have shown human-caused climate change has shortened the gaps between these episodes, and this trend will continue. This is because climate change is causing the western side of the Indian Ocean to warm faster than in the east, making it easier for positive Indian Ocean Dipole events to establish.  In other words, drought-causing positive Indian Ocean Dipole events will become more frequent as our climate continues to warm.”  (And they could get worse.)

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Evidence of a truly abrupt change in sea level in just 300 years, starting 11,300 years ago (The University of Hong Kong).  The evidence, while robust in character, is also unusual because it is all based on effects due to the isostatic rebound that always occurs in the Earth’s crust directly below a large ice sheet mass when that mass melts away.  In this case, between 11,300 and 11,000 years ago the researchers uncovered a rebound of that type in the Svalbard area, caused by a regional meltdown known to have occurred when the Younger Dryas cool period came to an abrupt conclusion.  The rebound was estimated at between 40 and 80 meters, which seems like a large number, but that is what those rebounds are like when the melting event is big enough.  This one was unusual because it all happened so rapidly.  Near Svalbard, sea level declined by a maximum of 250 feet while the rest of the world was being surprised by an abrupt increase that averaged around 20-30 feet.
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A new study expresses deep concern over the speed at which the Amazon rainforest and other major ecosystems are disintegrating (Phys.org).  “The Amazon rainforest is nearing a threshold which, once crossed, would see one of the world’s largest and richest ecosystems morph into arid savannah within half-a-century…..Another major ecosystem, Caribbean coral reefs, could die off in only 15 years were it to pass its own point-of-no-return…..The Amazon ecosystem could pass a point-of-no-return as soon as next year…..The modular structure of large ecosystems initially provides resilience against changes such as global warming or forest destruction…..But once a certain threshold is crossed, the same modularity causes the rate at which the system unravels to accelerate.”
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Financial pressures are finally causing the demise of much of the global coal industry (Yale e360).  Despite the promises of Donald Trump, “With the fuel unable to compete in most places with natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, the mining and burning of coal is increasingly toxic economically as well as environmentally. Coal mines are becoming “stranded assets” — unlikely ever to pay off the costs of their development. The risks for financiers are becoming too great.  Now, even insurance companies are refusing to underwrite coal-fired power plants and coal mining ventures. And without insurance, say gleeful climate campaigners, coal is dead.”  With China the situation is different, but at least it shows a weakening for coal power.
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A writer for Forbes wonders about what the coronavirus will ultimately accomplish toward meeting the need to reduce carbon emissions.  “The full economic effects of the Coronavirus are not yet known, which is why the European Commission couldn’t factor them into today’s industrial strategy. Until those effects are known, the impacts on global emissions will also be unpredictable. But it may be that future generations look back at Coronavirus as the turning point in global efforts to fight climate change. And they may ask, “what was the Green Deal?”
Carl

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Climte Letter #1631

Posted on March 10, 2020 by Carl Campbell
An explanation of how locust swarms form, and their link to weather conditions (Carbon Brief).  This review is quite complete and clearly presented.  It includes a bonus of guidance toward understanding a weather system known as the  ‘Indian Ocean Dipole,’ which has a larger set of far-reaching effects that one should also learn to be familiar with.  (See the next story.)

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How the Indian Ocean Dipole affects extreme weather conditions in Australia, and promises a future worsening because of climate change (The Guardian).  This is an enlargement of the above story, centering on the activity of the Dipole in the east as it affects Australia.  It also draws a picture of the connection between the Dipole in the Indian Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) events in the Pacific.  Extreme events have occurred in the distant past, but their frequency can be expected to grow in the future.
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A new study has shown that prenatal exposure to high temperatures causes a reduction in average birth weights (Environmental Health Perspectives).  Evidence was gathered from data surrounding 30 million births in the US between 1989 and 2002.  The difference in weight was small but the association with temperature was unmistakable.  “At the individual level, a very small decrease in birth weight probably will not be clinically important for most newborns. But on the population level, even a very small risk factor affecting a very large number of pregnancies can lead to a substantial public health impact…..meaning the proportion of births with low and very low birth weights will increase.”
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Protecting or restoring mangrove forests pays for itself just by reducing the damage of coastal flooding (University of California – Santa Cruz).  Researchers have been able to demonstrate the estimated savings in monetary terms.  “Without mangroves, flood damages would increase by more than $65 billion annually, and 15 million more people would be flooded…..these forests can be easily restored to make people and property safer…..Mangroves are resilient and can grow like weeds, even around cities, if we give them half a chance.”  (Mangrove trees are known to be unusually effective at collecting and storing atmospheric carbon.)
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A new technology promises a highly efficient new way to produce lithium from brine (Monash University – Melbourne).  “Based on this new research, we could one day have the capability to produce simple filters that will take hours to extract lithium from brine, rather than several months to years…..Preliminary studies have shown that this technology has a lithium recovery rate of approximately 90 percent—a substantial improvement on 30 percent recovery rate achieved through the current solar evaporation process.”  That will allow new lakebed sources having lower grade ore to become operative.  “We’re pleased that our international research collaboration has made a breakthrough that could improve the supply of lithium. This is important for enabling electric vehicles and grid integration of renewable energy sources.”
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Partisans on the political right are less firm in their beliefs about climate change than those on the left (Nature Climate Change).  That was the conclusion of a large panel survey taken over a five-year period in Oklahoma.  “An important implication is that if climate beliefs are well anchored on the left, but less so on the right, the latter are more susceptible to change. We interpret this to suggest that, despite polarizing elite rhetoric, public beliefs about climate change maintain the potential to shift towards broader acceptance and a perceived need for action.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1630

Posted on March 9, 2020 by Carl Campbell
New thinking about the cause of atmospheric ‘blocks’ is having an influence on future climate predictions (Science).  This article shows how the explanation has been evolving for many years, and remains uncertain, but is gaining some elements of clarity.  Some key points that are made:  “As the world warms, the jet stream is likely to move to higher latitudes, which could lead to even more blocking events….. blocking events are more common and last longer when the jet stream moves to higher latitudes…..the new theories could identify thresholds—specific atmospheric conditions—at which blocks are likely to proliferate…..And Wang has found that shifting the stream 10° closer to the pole could bring a 10-fold increase in blocks—and the heat waves and droughts they foster.  Northern Europe would experience many more…..especially Russia.”  There is ongoing debate over the role of water vapor in block formation.

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More evidence that a powerful cosmic impact was the cause of the Younger Dryas climate event that began 12,800 years ago (University of California – Santa Barbara).  The impact and the profound cooling that followed have no effect on current climate models, but certainly affected the lives of our ancestors for an entire millennium.  “This impact contributed to the extinction of most large animals, including mammoths, and American horses and camels; the disappearance of the North American Clovis culture; and to the abrupt onset of the end-glacial Younger Dryas cooling episode.”  This interesting story is about archaeological findings that describe the destruction of a settlement in the Middle East as it participated in the wide spread of the occurrence.
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Five charts show how electric power generation in the US has been changing in this century (Inside Climate News).  Two of them seem rather surprising—one, that coal generation has fallen by half since 2008; the other, that total demand for electricity has not risen at all since 2007.  “The U.S. has gotten much better at conserving energy, using more efficient lighting and appliances, and improving building codes, among many other changes.”  Now we need to begin cutting back our dependence on those gas-fired power plants.
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Globally, the shift away from coal for power generation is much too slow (Business Green).  “Carbon emissions from the global power sector fell by two per cent in 2019, the biggest fall since at least 1990.”  That may sound positive, but here’s the rub:  Large declines of 24 per cent in the EU and 16 per cent in the US in 2019 were almost completely offset by gains elsewhere around the world, dominated by China.  “Chinese coal generation continues to rise and, in 2019, the country was responsible for 50 per cent of global coal generation.”  (This year and beyond will of course depend on how quickly that nation recovers from its coronavirus outbreak—see the following story.)
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The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global carbon emissions, which could mitigate climate change, cannot be predicted at this time (Carnegie Mellon University).  The main reason has been laid out in a newly-published study.  “When scientists try to predict the spread of something across populations — anything from a coronavirus to misinformation — they use complex mathematical models to do so. Typically, they’ll study the first few steps in which the subject spreads, and use that rate to project how far and wide the spread will go.  But what happens if a pathogen mutates, or information becomes modified, changing the speed at which it spreads?….These evolutionary changes have a huge impact…..If you don’t consider the potential changes over time, you will be wrong in predicting the number of people that will get sick or the number of people who are exposed to a piece of information.”  (That also adds to the complication of producing an effective vaccine.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1629

Posted on March 6, 2020 by Carl Campbell
An analysis of shrinking time constraints for meeting the targets set in Paris (Wageningen University – Netherlands).  This first link provides the press release that introduces a new report from a top-level group of scientists and its main conclusions.  The report itself, which follows, is clearly written and deserves a careful reading.  Keep in mind that the Paris targets serve as useful goalposts for budgeting and timing purposes even if the numbers themselves prove to be overly optimistic with respect to delayed impacts that are likely to slowly emerge over many future decades.  The authors mainly want to key in on the vital importance of not wasting time, while wasting time is exactly what we keep doing.

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–Here is a link to the full report, which was published by the trusted journal Nature.  One quick quote that helps to summarize—“Had serious climate action begun in 2010, the cuts required to meet the emissions levels for 2 °C would have been around 2% per year, on average, up to 2030. Instead, emissions increased. Consequently, the required cuts from 2020 are now more than 7% per year on average for 1.5 °C (close to 3% for 2 °C).”
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The coronavirus has brought on a sharp ‘unmanaged contraction’ of carbon emissions in China (Deutsch-Welle).  “China, the world’s biggest greenhouse gas polluter, has no plans to cut its emissions anytime soon. Under its Paris Agreement pledges, Beijing has promised to hit peak emissions by 2030. So for the next decade, they’re only going to go up…..Yet suddenly, this colossal, coal-powered economy has slashed emissions by 25%…..Not because of the climate crisis, but the COVID-19 public health emergency…..Economists are warning of possible recession in Chinese trading partners Germany and Japan, while global growth is predicted to slow and oil demand has fallen faster than at any time since the 2008 financial crash.  All this looks like good news for the planet — at least in the short term…..advocates of a managed contraction of economic activity to protect the climate say shocks like the current outbreak illustrate the stark choices before us.”  (Or maybe, since we can’t do the job in a manageable way, has nature just stepped in and taken over with an alternative ‘damn the torpedoes’ type of approach?)
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Europe has experienced ‘by far’ its warmest winter on record (EcoWatch).  “The average temperature in Europe between December 2019 and February 2020 was 3.4 degrees Celsius warmer than the average temperature between 1981 and 2010.”  Moreover, it was 1.4C warmer than the previous record, set in 2015-16, when a major El Nino event was in full force—but none such this year.  A number of other global regions, including most of Russia, were also far above average.
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Russia is apparently starting to get serious about climate change—according to The Moscow Times!  “The Moscow Times is launching a special series of articles focusing on the effects of climate change in Russia — one of the most pressing issues in the country’s future. This is the first article in the series…..Even skeptics can no longer ignore the effects of climate change in Russia…..In the past year, Russia’s government has finally admitted that climate change is a serious threat to Russia’s future and has drawn up plans for action.”  This is a very interesting read.  President Putin, like his good friend in the US, does not seem to be convinced, but others around him are now openly calling for useful action.  It must mean something?
Carl

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Climate Letter #1628

Posted on March 5, 2020 by Carl Campbell
‘Stony’ coral species are now evolving in much the same way as they did just before final extinction in an event occurring 66 million years ago (EcoWatch).  This story provides a good introduction to an important study just published that was based on analyzing the well-preserved fossil remains of corals that are found going back 250 million years.  “The scientists looked at the traits of corals that survived the last major extinction event. They found that the colorful, wavy corals that attract scuba divers did not last. The ones that did survive are the ones that form small colonies and seek out deep water, which are the same ones showing signs of thriving today…..It was incredibly spooky to witness how corals are now exhibiting the same traits as they did at the last major extinction event.”

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–Here is the original press release of the story, issued by a division of City University of New York, with a noteworthy addition:  “The authors note that while slow recovery time (2-10 million years) of coral reefs following a mass extinction is distressing, they also call attention that primates (the order that also includes humans) are also increasingly becoming threatened with extinction.  There is something very powerful about this message coming from the corals…..Corals are such a sensitive group of marine creatures, they are essentially the canary in the coal mine.”
–Newsweek magazine is one of only a few publications that has covered the story.  Their online version includes a 4-minute video about past mass extinctions that is worth watching.
–The full study has open access:  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-60605-2
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When the water level rises in the San Francisco Bay, so does groundwater under coastal property surrounding the bay (circle of blue).  “As sea levels rise, so do the waters in the bay, which connects to the Pacific Ocean through the Golden Gate. That relationship between rising ocean levels and rising bay levels is well known. What is less obvious is that groundwater levels are rising as well, adding another variable to the region’s equation of increasing flood risk.”  Damage inland is already apparent, and sure to worsen.  “An earlier assessment found that the price tag for defending Bay Area shorelines against more than 6 feet of sea-level rise and a flood with a one percent chance of occurring would approach $450 billion.”  (Other cities around the world can have the same problem, dictated by soil construction.)
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GM has announced a major shift toward production of electric vehicles, to be powered by a proprietary new battery technology (Axios).  “Importantly, GM says lower battery costs — below $100 per kWh — combined with lower engineering complexity means the first wave of EVs will be profitable from the start…..Battery options between 50 and 200 kWh could provide a driving range of 400 miles or more with 0 to 60 mph acceleration as little as three seconds…..most EVs will be charged overnight or at work, but the cars are designed to charge at public DC fast-chargers as well.”
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Japanese researchers claim to have solved the main issue holding back development of lithium-sulfur batteries (Toyohashi University of Technology).  “In particular, all-solid-state lithium-sulfur batteries have attracted attention because of five times higher energy density than conventional lithium-ion secondary batteries.”  New methods of manufacturing mean this potential can be realized at low cost, along with long life and other advantages that should make the batteries highly competitive for use in electric vehicles.  (Things are heating up fast in the battery world.)
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From Bill McKibben, the second installment of his coverage of The Climate Crisis, published by The New Yorker.  There is a lot of good reading material, like this:  “Above all, I think, a physical shock like COVID-19 is a reminder that the world is a physical place. That’s easy to forget when we apprehend it mostly through screens, or through the cozy, contained environments that make up most of our lives. We seem to have a great deal of control, right until the moment that we don’t have any. Things can go very, very wrong, and very, very quickly. That’s precisely what scientists have been telling us for decades now about the climate crisis, and it’s what people have learned, from Australia to California, Puerto Rico, and everywhere that flood and fire has broken out. That planets get sick slightly slower than populations do—over a few decades, not a few weeks—doesn’t change the basic calculation. Biology doesn’t really care what we think of it, any more than physics or chemistry does. Reality is capable of biting, and biting hard.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1627

Posted on March 4, 2020 by Carl Campbell
An important new study tells how the vital carbon sink provided by tropical forests has been weakening (University of Leeds).  The study, published in the journal Nature, was conducted by nearly 100 institutions over a 30-year time period.  “We show that peak carbon uptake into intact tropical forests occurred in the 1990s…..with carbon dioxide levels, temperature, drought, and forest dynamics being key…..Our modelling of these factors shows a long-term future decline in the African sink and that the Amazonian sink will continue to rapidly weaken, which we predict to become a carbon source in the mid-2030s…..Overall, intact tropical forests removed 17% of human-made carbon dioxide emissions in the 1990s, reduced to just 6% in the 2010s…..This is decades ahead of even the most pessimistic climate models.”  (One must surmise that the rate of decline was most likely accelerated by activities reported in just the past year.)

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–The story is sure to get considerable publicity in the media.  Here is how it was reported by The Guardian:
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Northern peatlands may also shift from being carbon sinks to sources, although the numbers are much smaller and better human control is possible.  A new study, not well-publicized, has been published by Wiley Online Library.  The good news is that peatlands generally remain persistent as carbon sinks if undisturbed, even when the climate is moderately warming, as they keep on burying more plant matter.  Those that are not well-protected will fail in that regard and can quickly change into carbon sources as it comes out of storage.
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Scientists have documented how spring is arriving at earlier dates in different parts of the US, and explain why this is not a good idea (The Conversation).  This story by a director of the USA National Phenology Network provides a summary of the information gathered through many recent studies.  (As suggested by a story in yesterday’s Climate Letter, this looks like a prime example of where all of the countless species that are involved start processing permanent evolutionary changes in response, steering them toward a potentially catastrophic tipping point.)
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Should dams be built across the North Sea and English Channel for the protection of Europe against rising sea level? (Climate News Network).  The idea has been proposed, and shown to be feasible.  It must actually be given serious consideration because the costs are relatively low compared with the likely cost of damages if the seas rise by several meters and nothing is done.  Tim Radford covers all the considerations very well in this report.  “The best solution will always be the treatment of the cause: human-caused climate change…..However, if nations do not act to control the greenhouse gas emissions and forest destruction that cause global heating, and ever higher tides, then solutions such as the North European Enclosure Dam, known for short as NEED, are the only option.”
–Here is the earlier press release from The Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, which in turn provides full access to the original proposal: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/rnif-adr022820.php
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Rolling Stone has published a thorough review, including some unbelievable illustrations, of the problems generated by the production of plastics and disposal of plastic waste.  It includes this brief summary of how climate change is affected:  “Global plastics production and incineration currently creates the CO2 pollution of 189 coal plants. By 2050, that’s expected to more than triple, to the equivalent of 615 coal plants. At that rate, plastics would hog about 15 percent of the world’s remaining ‘carbon budget,’ or what can be emitted without crossing the 2-degrees Celsius threshold in global temperature rise that scientists warn can trigger calamity.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1626

Posted on March 3, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Researchers have found a better way of explaining how environmental changes lead to the tipping points that signal ecological  collapse (Santa Fe  Institute).  The key point is that even a small change in its environment causes evolutionary changes in various species that help them to adapt.  The tipping point only becomes effective whenever evolution can no longer produce the needed changes across the ecosystem, after being delayed for what has been an indeterminate and perhaps extended period of time.

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Aquatic dead zones can be mitigated with higher oxygen content by employing a technology that is less costly than other possible solutions (Carnegie Institute for Science).  A research team has discovered that simply pumping oxygenated water from the surface to depths below would be effective and economically feasible.  “According to the researchers, their work indicates that downwelling technology may show potential to scale up to larger areas in which annual dead zones create great ecological and economic distress, such as the Chesapeake Bay or the Gulf of Mexico. They estimate that the energy required to power the pumps could cost tens of millions of dollars each year…..But these price tags are relatively small compared to the costs of upgrades to wastewater treatment facilities and fertilizer-reduction programs that limit nutrient inputs to the water bodies.”  Long-term solutions would still be called for, but having a known temporary fix is good thing to have in hand.
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Scientists now have a better handle on an extreme type of weather event recently recognized as a ‘flash drought’  (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).  “Flash droughts are a type of extreme event distinguished by rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts…..new research explored current understanding of the physical processes that can drive flash droughts, the existing capabilities to predict them and what is needed to make progress to establish effective early warning of flash droughts….. In southern Queensland, Australia, a flash drought in early 2018 de-vegetated the landscape and drove livestock numbers to their lowest level in a century.”
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A psychologist who teaches Zen Buddhism has some advice for how to think about the calamities mankind is facing (ABC News).  “As human beings, we need to remind ourselves that we are oxygen-breathing biped mammals.  In other words, we are animals. Evolutionary science demonstrates that we are continuous, not discontinuous, with other animal species.”  Whether or not you agree with his entire philosophy, the advice he offers as a psychologist has certain practical benefits that are surely worth considering.
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One of the main issues with hydrogen-powered fuel cells may have been overcome (University of Aberdeen).  “Ceramic fuel cells are highly efficient, but the problem is they operate at really high temperatures, above 800 °C. Because of that they have a short lifespan and use expensive components…..What we have discovered here is a dual proton and oxide ion conductor that will operate successfully at a lower temperature—around 500 °C—which solves these problems. You could say that we’ve found the needle in a haystack that can unlock the full potential of this technology.”  This comes alongside other recent reports about how hydrogen is becoming much cheaper to produce.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1625

Posted on March 2, 2020 by Carl Campbell
The WMO expects the global warming trend to continue upward over the next three months (World Meteorological Organization).  The key factor behind the forecast is based on studies of all conditions affecting surface water temperatures in the Pacific—“there is a 60% chance of ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions continuing during March-May 2020. The chances for an El Niño or La Niña are 35% and 5% respectively…..El Niño typically has a warming influence on global temperatures, whilst La Niña has the opposite effect.”  Other factors that have been causing temperatures to rise show no signs of declining and thus should contribute to more average gains.  The strong type of La Nina events have been absent now for nearly a decade.  The odds for one to develop in the June-August period did improve to 25%.

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–A chart of the Oceanic Nino Index back to 1950:  https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png
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Britain has had its wettest February on record (Independent).  “Thanks to storms Ciara, Dennis and Jorge, the country has seen an average of 202.1mm of rainfall over the month, surpassing the previous record of February 1990 when 193.4mm fell, the Met Office said.”  That’s equal to about an 8-inch average for the entire country, which has 90 flood warnings and 215 alerts still in place.
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A new study projects major losses of the world’s sandy beaches in this century (The Guardian).  “In 30 years, erosion will have destroyed 36,097km (22,430 miles) or 13.6% of sandy coastlines identified from satellite images by scientists for the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European commission. They predict the situation will worsen in the second half of the century, washing away a further 95,061km or 25.7% of Earth’s beaches.”  Note that the total loss is about 40%.  Furthermore, these estimates are based on a quite conservative scenario, where “oceans will only have risen by 50cm by 2100.”  Estimated increases of better than one meter are not hard to find elsewhere.
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Bill McKibbin’s new project, The Climate Crisis weekly newsletter (The New Yorker).  No one is better qualified to cover this subject than the nation’s long-time number-one activist, and you can sign up for free to get your own copies.  He includes any number of links to outside sources that back up his points, which are certainly thorough in coverage.
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Why Antarctica’s Thwaites glacier gets so much attention, and what is being done about it (Peter Sinclair).  The first video is brand new, well worth nine minutes of your time.  Drilling that hole was quite an adventure and what they found at the bottom was a big surprise.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1625

Climate Letter #1624

Posted on February 28, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A new study provides a wide range of information about how changes in land cover cause significant changes in air temperature on a regional basis (Norwegian University of Science and Technology).  The research was mostly done in Europe, but the basic principles should apply anywhere.  Plenty of numbers are reported that demonstrate the importance of each kind of action that has been or can be taken.  The study assesses many different kinds of effects, not just carbon storage.  “These other effects include how different kinds of land cover reflect or absorb sunlight—which clearly affects surface temperature—along with humidity levels and evapotranspiration.”  The review posted here is very well written, and quite complete.  
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–The study itself has open access:  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14890-0
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There exists a terrible plan to drain the Congo peat bogs for purposes of oil exploration (The Guardian).  The environmental losses incurred simply by draining the land far outweigh the consequences of burning any oil that is found, which may be rather meager, and possibly never even be produced.  “The world’s largest tropical peatlands could be destroyed if plans go ahead to drill for oil under the Congo basin, according to an investigation that suggests draining the area would release the same amount of carbon dioxide as Japan emits annually.  Preserving the Congo’s Cuvette Centrale peatlands, which are the size of England and store 30bn tonnes of carbon, is ‘absolutely essential’ if there is any hope of meeting Paris climate agreement goals, scientists warn.” 
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Carbon dioxide can now be captured from a waste stream and converted to marketable methane at potentially low cost of processing.  (Waseda University – Japan).  This story and others like it get a fair amount of publicity, because there is a real need to have a good market for any CO2 that can be captured, even if the market is in the form of methane.  It’s good that so many labs are trying to make it happen, and are making some progress.
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A new study provides an abundance of information that will be useful in setting priorities for creating programs that will lead to the greatest reduction of methane emissions at the lowest cost (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – Vienna).  “Methane is a gas that deserves more attention in the climate debate as it contributes to almost half of human-made global warming in the short-term…..it is possible to achieve reduced global warming  in the near term by targeting methane through the fast implementation of technology to prevent its release to the atmosphere….. Between 30% and 50% of future global methane emissions can be removed at a cost below 50 €/t CO2eq.”  That’s quite a bit cheaper than the projected cost of removing CO2 from the atmosphere, and because it is all about prevention there is nothing left over that needs to be disposed of.  The key is to locate exactly the right leaks or other sources that best need to be attacked, which is difficult because there are so many kinds and they are so widely dispersed.  This research made solid progress toward getting them properly identified.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab7457#ercab7457s4
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A hydrogen-powered commuter train is about to be tested in the UK (BBC Future Planet).  There are plenty of challenges to be faced before feasibility is assured; this story describes all of both the pluses and minuses.  The UK wants to do away with all of its diesel trains by 2040, so the outcome of this test is keenly anticipated.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1624

Climate Letter #1623

Posted on February 27, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Researchers have developed better tools for predicting future losses of ice mass from Antarctica (University of Gothenburg).  The study was focused on the role of the steep ice cliffs widely found at glacial fronts.  Today they help to hold down the melting that would otherwise occur beneath the glacial undersides, thus resisting a potentially more rapid collapse.  “…around two-thirds of the thermal energy that travels up towards the continental shelf from the deep sea never reaches the ice…..This also means that the floating glaciers—the ice fronts in particular—are key areas that should be closely monitored. If the ice walls were to disappear, much greater levels of thermal energy would be released towards the ice on land.”  Future monitoring should help to pin down the currently very wide estimates of the amount and timing of future sea level rise that is sure to come from the potentially major Antarctic source.

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Another study has found that wind-driven rotating ocean currents are shifting poleward because of climate change (Inside Climate News).  “Eight major wind-driven ocean currents, known as gyres, circulate around vast areas of ocean: three in the Atlantic, three in the Pacific, and one each in the Indian and Antarctic Oceans…..moving toward the poles at a rate of about a mile every two years, potentially depriving important coastal fishing waters of important nutrients and raising the risk of sea level rise, extreme storms and heatwaves for some adjacent land areas…..The poleward shift is bad news for the East Coast of the U.S., because it makes sea level rise even worse…..At about 40 degrees latitude north and south, where the effects of the shifting currents are most evident, sea level rise is already 8 to 12 inches more than in other regions…..no reason to think the changes will slow down or stop anytime soon.”
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A humanitarian catastrophe due to the locust invasion in East Africa has grown much more threatening (reliefweb).  It is complicated by the fact that over 14 million displaced persons are being sheltered in the most-exposed region and there is already a major shortage of assistance funding for them without the locust threat, placing great pressure on the host populations.  “According to FAO, the invasion is escalating……millions are resurfacing in farming areas placing the March to May planting season at serious risk. If left unchecked, the numbers of crop-eating insects could grow 500 times by June.  (It’s unclear what methods are available to halt an invasion threat of this magnitude.)
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In Zimbabwe nearly 8 million people, half of them children, are deeply troubled by a mixture of economic and climate crises (reliefweb).  The economic problems are fairly normal in this country, but not so the weather.  “The country’s food emergency is also part of a regional climate crisis, with roots in a severe drought htat began in 2018.  Many rivers, wells and dams have dried up, and children and their families often have to travel hours each day to collect water. While some parts of the country received erratic and uneven rainfall between November 2019 and January 2020, much of the rain fell on parched land, resulting in flooding and topsoil erosion, further impeding the ability of families to farm.  The lean season is due to peak during January to March   but is expected to last much longer as many farmers have lost their crops and will have nothing to harvest come March.”  (All the attention given to the coronavirus pandemic can only distract from the fulfillment of outside help needed for this situation and the one described above.)
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More fine photo journalism from The Guardian, this time showing what it is like living in Australia when temperatures soar.  Indigenous people whose ancestors have lived in the interior regions for countless generations are among those featured.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1623