Climate Letter #1652

Posted on April 8, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A new report projects catastrophic losses of biodiversity much sooner than most expectations (University College London).  “A warming global climate could cause sudden, potentially catastrophic losses of biodiversity in regions across the globe throughout the 21st century, finds a new UCL-led study…..We found that climate change risks to biodiversity don’t increase gradually. Instead, as the climate warms, within a certain area most species will be able to cope for a while, before crossing a temperature threshold, when a large proportion of the species will suddenly face conditions they’ve never experienced before.  It’s not a slippery slope, but a series of cliff edges, hitting different areas at different times.”  (This is one of the most alarming reports I have ever seen, because the early scheduling of dire events is right on our doorstep.  The full study does not have open access but there is more information of a helpful sort available, which follows.)

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–The University of Cape Town, home of one of the three principal authors, has a quite extensive review that includes an animated graphic of the timing sequence.  “The main finding that surprised us was how much biodiversity is at risk in the first half of this century,” said Dr Christopher Trisos, senior researcher at the African Climate & Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town (UCT). “The risk doesn’t accumulate gradually, but can go from low risk to high risk within a decade. This abruptness of risk was really a shocking finding for us.  It’s not a slippery slope, but a series of cliff edges, hitting different places at different times.”
https://www.news.uct.ac.za/article/-2020-04-08-climate-change-could-abruptly-alter-biodiversity

–Here is how The Guardian wrote up the story, based on several interviews including two of the authors:
–Nature, the journal of publication, has also delivered a summarized review of the study which is more of a critique, because of many complications that are noted and the remaining number of unanswered questions that need to be followed up with added information.
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An early report about what the latest bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef actually looks like (The Guardian).  This is the number-one example of what the above story is referring to, because its reality is already so far advanced.
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A research team finds that rising temperatures alone can be an important cause of the greening of vegetation, separate from the fertilization effect of higher CO2 levels (Chinese Academy of Sciences).  This is of particular relevance in regions like the Arctic and the “Third Pole” area of China and India, where the rate of greening can probably be expected to keep rising long after CO2 emissions growth has been halted.  The extra greening is then expected to have a feedback effect which will help to limit the pace of future warming that is anticipated, but for a different reason, as the heat buildup in the oceans both continues and is slowly released.  (It’s all somewhat complicated, but I think it makes good sense in an unusual way, with an overall positive tone.)
–The study of reference, which has open access, is the result of a comprehensive review of the characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of global greening.  One of the key points it makes is that “Warming is the major cause of greening in boreal and Arctic biomes, but has negative effects on greening in the tropics.”
Carl

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Climate Letter #1651

Posted on April 7, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A new examination of the  “biological carbon  pump” finds it to be twice as strong as previously estimated (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution).  The pump has the effect of sequestering a significant part of the excess CO2 emitted by human activity.  We now realize its importance more than ever, and why it must be monitored continually to look out for future changes.  The story includes a short video that shows exactly how the pump operates.  It also highlights the importance of carbon sinks in general, which occur naturally and are outside of our control.  They collectively absorb about half of our emissions, and all are needed, but we don’t know if they will all continue to function as before.  
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The latest coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef was the worst one of all (Phys.org).  It was the third mass bleaching in just five years for this 1400-mile long reef.  “The damage came as February brought the highest monthly sea temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef since Australia began keeping records in 1900…..For the first time, severe bleaching has struck all three regions of the Great Barrier Reef –- the northern, central and now large parts of the southern sectors.”  A full assessment of the damage is yet to come.
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Ice core drillers in Antarctica now believe they can establish a history of hydroxyl ion abundance (ABC News).  Certain kinds of greenhouse gas molecules, methane in particular, are in large part only removed from the atmosphere by having contact with naturally occurring molecules in the form of ions called hydroxyl radicals, or OH.  Methane molecules are known to be steadily increasing while there are fears that OH, while still adequate, may be susceptible to decline.  “What climate modellers need is information back to the beginning of the industrial period so we can work out what OH was up to before we started adding to its workload with ever-increasing emissions…..There would be profound implications if this extremely helpful molecule is found to have been losing its capacity to scrub the skies over time. Corrections would be needed for how long methane hangs around and how quickly it will continue to build up in the future. In short, things could get hotter, much faster than currently predicted.”  The story has a fascinating account of the activities involved in the entire process.
–This link has methane concentration data for years 1984-2019:
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A report from the UN describes names several reasons for why scientists believe climate change is driving the proliferation of major pandemics (News4.JAX).  “On average a new infectious disease emerges in humans every four months and 75% of these are coming from animals…..climate change is playing a role in driving new health dangers and proliferating these viruses…..biodiversity loss from a warming Earth is a key driver in new novel diseases…..Destruction of nature is hurting human survival because pathogens spread rapidly when the diversity of species is reduced…..Scientific evidence suggests that disease epidemics will become more frequent as the climate continues to change because microbes survive in the environment longer with higher temperatures and humidity.”  In addition to coronavirus the list of diseases under review includes Ebola, bird flu, swine flu, MERS, Rift Valley fever, SARS, West Nile virus and the Zika virus.
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The chemical industry has a pathway to carbon neutrality, but it comes with a number of difficulties and disadvantages (ETH Zurich and Utrecht University).  A new study covers all the basics, showing that the main problem has to do with the nature of the raw materials that are required.  “Polymers, plastics, synthetic textile fibres and medicines all contain carbon. It has to come from somewhere…..As things stand, the vast majority of this carbon comes from oil and natural gas. During production, and when the chemical products are burned or decompose at the end of their life, they release CO2.”
Carl
 

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Climate Letter #1650

Posted on April 6, 2020 by Carl Campbell
Atmospheric CO2 update—go to https://www.2degreesinstitute.org/#how—and scroll down to the lower chart.  The growth curve in concentration normally slows down during February and March, while daily readings become unusually scattered, and this year has been no exception to the rule.  What normally follows is a fast sprint from early April to a peak around the middle of May, a shift that has again begun, right on course.  The last batch of numbers you see, at 415-416 ppm, are running a full three parts higher than a similar batch seen last year in the first week of April, suggesting that the final peak might have a similar relationship to the peak reached last year in May.  The 2019 peak was itself 3 ppm above the one in 2018.  Now go to the upper chart and uncheck the CO2 display box, leaving just the long-term central trendline.  The basic pattern of acceleration has simply not stopped one bit, maybe even adding some to the pace, sadly happening more than four years after the signing of the Paris Agreement.  We’ll soon be seeing what effect the virus might have, probably lower by most counts, and then whether or not any improvement is only temporary.   On that score:

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A look at possible changes in the way people live and work that could benefit the emissions trend after the virus is gone. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).  The author has interesting ideas about realistic possibilities that could easily happen in a natural way.  “Among the changes that have come in the wake of COVID-19 that could stick around are increased remote working, expanding e-commerce, and shrinking supply chains. Each of them, if they become permanent, could make a substantial contribution to the reduction of global carbon emissions. Let’s look at each one in turn.”  I think she makes a good case.
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A clear explanation of how ozone holes are formed and what they mean to us, along with some news (nature).  The news is that a very large hole recently formed over the Arctic but the author does not think it is something to worry about.  The report has lots of information for anyone who is curious about this kind of phenomenon, which is both weather-related and known to be dangerous the way it works in the southern polar region.
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A new study describes the importance of Northern peatlands as a carbon sink, and why the sink is endangered (University of Eastern Finland).  “According to the researchers, peatlands will remain carbon sinks until the end of this century, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced after 2050, if the climate warms significantly…..Despite only covering around 3% of the Earth’s surface, peatlands contain roughly a fifth of its soil carbon. In Europe, these ecosystems store five times more CO2 than forests.”  Most stories about peatland focus on human activity that destroys those that are already in existence.  This study is only about the fact that new peatland additions are continually being formed, which is to our great benefit, even while temperatures are slowly warming, but the benefit is being threatened by continuation of the excessive degree of warming now underway.
–The study has open access and is worth a good look to get the key details:
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Solid evidence has been obtained linking climate disasters to the onset of violent conflicts (Science Direct).  Theories to that effect have been around for a long time but never properly established by data.  These researchers have now delivered an abundance of proof. “By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset.”  The link is to their full study, written in plain language.
Carl

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Climate Letter #1649

Posted on April 3, 2020 by Carl Campbell
An excellent review of how the world’s oceans are being affected by climate change (Rolling Stone – by Jeff Goodell).  Jeff is an outstanding environmental journalist, well-connected to leading climate scientists through frequent interviews.  This lengthy piece is full of information and right on target about the troubles we are facing, both known and unknown, in this vital segment of the planet.  The story also covers up-to-date knowledge of how the oceans affect the climate, in ways both active and passive.

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A new study adds to our understanding of probable future expansion of Earth’s drylands, and about their level of productivity, as a consequence of climate change (Washington State University).  “Drylands, which primarily include savannas, grasslands and shrublands, are important for supporting grazing and non-irrigated croplands around the world. They are also an important player in the global carbon cycle and make up 41% of Earth’s land surface and support 38% of its population…..Our results highlight the vulnerability of drylands to more frequent and severe climate extremes.”  The findings they describe, much like those in the story above, are deeply problematic.
–The study itself has open access and is clearly written.  It shows signs of diligent workmanship in the research undertaking.
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Researchers have created a new “slip law” governing the way glaciers slide toward the oceans (Iowa State University).  Laboratory experiments that have been going on since 2009 have provided useful information about how to predict rates of glacial movement over uneven terrain.  “Glacier ice is a highly viscous fluid that slips over a substrate…and friction at the bed provides the drag that holds the ice back…In the absence of friction, the weight of the ice would cause it to accelerate catastrophically like some landslides…..The resulting experimentally based slip law for glaciers moving over soft beds should make a difference in predictions of glacier movement and sea-level rise:….Ice sheet models using our new slip relationship…would tend to predict higher ice discharges to the ocean—and higher rates of sea-level rise—than slip laws currently being used in most ice sheet models.”
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Climate change is altering marine biology in an unexpected way that may reduce the ocean’s ability to sequester carbon (The Guardian).  “A first-ever winter and spring sampling of plankton in the western North Atlantic showed cell sizes were considerably smaller than scientists assumed, which means the carbon they absorb does not sink as deep or as fast, nor does it stay in the depths for as long.  This discovery is likely to force a negative revision of global climate calculations, say the authors of the Nasa-backed study, though it is unclear by how much”…..”We have found a misconception. It will definitely impact the model of carbon flows…It will require more than just a small tweak.”
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Scientists say that restoring the oceans to good health within thirty years is a possibility if decisive and urgent action is taken (CNN).  “A team of scientists from around the world found marine life to be “remarkably resilient” despite damage caused by human activity and interference…..ocean populations could be restored as soon as 2050, but warned that there is limited time to achieve this change…..The success of many marine conservation projects in recent years illustrates how we can make a real difference to life in our oceans if we apply the lessons learnt from them at scale and with urgency….We have a narrow window of opportunity to deliver a healthy ocean to our grandchildren’s generation, and we have the knowledge and tools to do so.”  (Hopefully they see answers to projections of further increases in ocean warming—and acidification—due to the effect of hard-to-remove greenhouse gases already in place and still growing.)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/world/ocean-recovery-marine-intl-scli-scn/index.html
Carl

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Climate Letter #1648

Posted on April 2, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A short essay well worth reading (Yale e360).  Author and journalist Jacques Leslie bases his remarks on an older and longer essay by Charles C. Mann.  It leads to an interesting point:  “This is the first time that billions of people around the world have feared the same thing at the same time,” suggesting the possibility that profound changes may lie ahead.

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A new analysis exploring the increased risk of wildfires in California and beyond (Stanford University).  The research pretty much confirms thoughts and fears that have already been widely expressed.  The authors make a special point of showing how actual changes in climate that have become a well-entrenched normality are largely responsible, and likely to continue worsening as things now stand.  “The authors emphasize that there are a number of opportunities for managing the intensifying risk of wildfires in California and other regions. They show that the reduced emissions target identified in the United Nations’ Paris agreement would likely slow the increase in wildfire risk. However, even with those reductions, much of California is still likely to experience rising risk of extreme wildfire weather in the future.”
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A completely different study shows how climate change is increasing the risk of fires in the American Northwest (University of Washington).  “We’re on the cusp of some big changes. We expect that droughts will become more common, and the interaction of climate and fire could look very different by the mid-21st century…..Climate change will accentuate dry summers, and Northwest climate will become more similar to current-day California climate,  leading to more and bigger fires.”  The authors are especially interested in evaluating methods of preparation and adaptation suited to particular forested locations.
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Cores drilled into sediment near the South Pole reveal evidence of temperatures from 90 million years ago that were much warmer than expected (Imperial College London).  The discovery of such well-preserved materials was quite amazing:  “The evidence for the Antarctic forest comes from a core of sediment drilled into the seabed near the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica…..The team CT-scanned the section of the core and discovered a dense network of fossil roots, which was so well preserved that they could make out individual cell structures. The sample also contained countless traces of pollen and spores from plants, including the first remnants of flowering plants ever found at these high Antarctic latitudes.”  The authors of the study see this as evidence of CO2 levels being well above 1000 ppm, which is consistent with other recently published historical indicators showing relevance to the designated time period—see the chart that follows.
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Clear glass windows that function as solar energy collectors have been developed (TechXplore).  A small California company has created the technology through a unique process, based on the invention of transparent photovoltaic cells.  “The panels will produce approximately two-thirds the power generated by traditional solar panels. And although installation of ClearView Power windows costs about 20 percent more than traditional windows, they are less expensive than rooftop-installed or remote solar power structures.”  (Plans for production, marketing and so on have not yet been disclosed, but the invention itself is certainly noteworthy.)
Carl

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Climate Letter #1647

Posted on April 1, 2020 by Carl Campbell

Editing note: Unfortunately, the original images did not save properly. The ones you see below are effectively useless.

This has turned out to be a great day for doing Weather Map studies at both poles, with an emphasis on demonstrating the mighty warming power of water vapor on surface air temperatures.  (It will help if you are familiar with the content of the last two letters.)  The two polar regions are both in an intermediate stage where they have roughly equal amounts of daylight, plus thin cloud covers that also have almost no role in fixing air temperatures.  As for greenhouse gas, all of those that are well-mixed and have long lives of concentration in the atmosphere are within only a few percentage points of what they have ever recorded over recent decades—including both CO2 and methane.  Thus none of them could possibly affect air temperature by more than a few tenths of one degree.  That leaves us with a single wild card, water vapor, the one greenhouse gas that indeed has a truly short life, such that drastic changes in concentration can be made with almost no notice, and, moreover, all stretched out over a very long scale.  The poles happen to be at the end of the scale where changes are the quickest and most dramatic, just the opposite of what goes on around the equator. 
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My plan is to show the connection between surface temperatures, their anomalies over a period averaging three decades, and differences in water vapor (which in this case is almost the entire content of Precipitable Water readings) relative to specific locations. I wish I could show you a map detailing the amount of anomaly that every different water vapor reading now has relative to its “normal daily average” for any one spot, but no such thing exists. The best I can do is to tell you what I think those anomalies really are, based on certain inferences and assumptions.  This first map simply shows that there is an extreme anomaly of warm air over much of the entire Arctic Ocean right now, with the largest extreme coding to about 16-17C. Note that a tiny patch of the ocean just off the upper edge of the warmest patch, shows up in near-white, making it an exception with almost no anomaly.
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The next map shows what the actual temperatures are, as a daily average.  Focus on the arrowhead type of image arrangement that starts around the Bering Strait and is aimed at the North Pole.  Its temperature starts at around -10C and then drops another 5 degrees or so as it passes the pole.  The little patch without much of an anomaly that I mentioned above, here colored in bright magenta, shows up at pretty close to -30C. I think that figure is a fair representation of what this entire ocean area would call normal at this particular time of the year.
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And finally, the water vapor readings, where you can make out the exact outline of that same arrowhead shape by again getting up close to the screen.  In this case, to get the readings properly, start with the darkest image, just above the arrowhead, where the temperature is -30, as noted above.  That represents one kilogram (or less) of H2O per square meter to the top of the atmosphere.  Then you should see separations into lighter shades, one kg each, out to a patch of 5kg near the Bering Strait.  That tells us the vapor level has doubled twice within this one fairly small region, with each double being capable of adding 8 and maybe 10 degrees of warmth to surface temperatures, as actually observed in the coding.

Since we do have two poles, and their seasonality is so similar right now, and we are already in the mood, let’s go ahead with a quicker analysis of the other one, starting with observations of a warm anomaly that covers about half of the continent.  While not as extreme, the air temperatures do go up by 7 or 8C in places; meanwhile, on the other side of the continent there are a couple of large spots showing declines of 10C or more, but not of much importance for the present discussion.

In this case, as shown below, the warm extremes, which are at high altitudes, appear to have an actual average temperature of around -35 C.  Closer to the center of the continent, at roughly similar altitudes, temperatures are now running at about -50, which happens to be within one or two degrees of normal for this altitude and this time of year.

Now I would like to make some valid water vapor readings in order to find connections, except that the information desired is not available, anywhere.  Once a reading drops below one kilogram no further distinction is reported, which is too bad because water vapor has been known to drop all the way down to about 15 grams when temperatures are at their record coldest for the continent, or at around -89C.  For comparison, the border surrounding the entire area where vapor is less than 1 kg is regularly reported to have a uniform temperature of about -30C.  You can see it being so today on the above chart as a ring of bright magenta coloration.  The implication is that from -30C all the way down to -90C, a difference of 60 degrees, all of the temperature changes that take place at any time happen in the presence of water vapor variations that stay within a range of 15 and 1000 grams, or less than the under-one kilogram color code. Here is something interesting: Mathematically, if you start from a low of 15 and double the amount of vapor six consecutive times you should come up with an answer just shy of 1000.  At 10C per double that kind of run would create a total of 60 degrees of additional temperature warmth.  Is that all just a coincidence—or is there a better explanation for what goes on, kind of hidden away, in the Earth’s most extreme location?

Carl

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Climate Letter #1646

Posted on March 31, 2020 by Carl Campbell
More about the Weather Maps, continued from yesterday, and as promised, the Precipitable Water map will be featured.  This map is at once the most loaded with information and the most difficult of all to interpret.  It is certainly the least attractive to look at, but once you get familiar with the content you should find it to be the most fascinating.  The role of precipitable water in meteorology is central, and media outlets like the Weather Channel do a great job of explanation.  It also has a distinctive role in climate science, which in my opinion is not well-explained, and beyond that, badly underestimated with respect to importance.  The reasons why I think that way can largely be seen just by studying information found in the Weather Maps, which I want to share with you. 
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Let me start by showing a typical map of global temperature anomalies for a single day, in this case today, which is much like any other day except that specific anomalies are never the same from one day to the next and keep jumping around all over the place in all sorts of shapes and sizes.  It is possible to predict how the anomalies will change for a few days out, but that’s about it—within a very short time the patterns everywhere are likely to have completely changed.  The only thing that is not likely to change much is the daily average global temperature change over a three-decade span since the 1979-2000 base period, today reading +0.6C, which generally fluctuates between extremes of +0.2 and +0.8.  (A decade from now, the way things are going, those extremes should both rise by about 0.2C.)
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Today’s map, like those every day, shows a number of regional anomalies, both hot and cold, ranging up to 10C and more.  Every so often you will see some as high as 20C—the same as 36F—and that’s really extreme.  The point I want to emphasize is that every anomaly you see, warm or cold, large or small, has its own explanation, and whenever it changes that too will need an explanation, one that can show a credible cause for the change.  I think that in every case around 99% of the cause will be found by studying the content of the precipitable water in the air above each individual anomaly.  One fraction of that content, if but not always present, and usually the smaller in terms of weight, is made of various bits of either liquid or icy water, while the larger part, always present in some varying degree, is just plain vapor.  Both fractions have their own independent effects on air temperature whenever they change, with vapor, through its prominent greenhouse effect, being responsible for the greatest amount of any net difference.  As I have previously stated in other letters, whenever the vapor content of the air doubles the effect enables an increase of about 8C (or possibly as much as 10C) in the air temperature on land surfaces below.  (Ocean surfaces increase much less because of the different way incoming energy is absorbed.)   And when vapor content falls in half, all numbers are reversed.  So let’s stop here and take a good look at a typical anomaly chart:       
 

The first thing to take note of in the PW map below is the extraordinary range of values, from less than one to more than 70.  (Each unit represents one kilogram of H2O per square meter of a vertical air column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere.)  When values show up at 50 or more you can almost be sure of the presence of heavy clouds and rainfall in the region, both of which have a cooling effect that may fully offset any warming influence from the vapor fraction.  Thus the greenhouse warming effect due to vapor by itself is largely confined to regions well outside of the tropical zone.  Indeed, as you can see from all the close-quarter activity in the atmosphere, in any region where values can be found that are less than 10 the possibility of doubling or quadrupling the PW value (or the reverse) within a short period of time is easily accomplished.  It happens every day, and that is exactly the reason why temperature anomaly swings of that magnitude happen all the time. 

The activity I spoke of all begins in places where spikes and bulges of PW are seen to emerge from the tropical zone of high evaporation and then proceed in a meandering sort of way toward one or the other pole, spreading out and also losing value as they do so.  Most of this is happening high in the atmosphere, at altitudes where jet stream winds are found and regularly play a role in shaping and finally ending each of these proceedings.  There is more to be said about all this, but maybe not today.

Carl

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Climate Letter #1645

Posted on March 30, 2020 by Carl Campbell
There are not many new and interesting climate stories or research reports in need of review on the web right now, so I will take a little more time writing about some of the climate science basics that I have found to be the most relevant.  That definitely includes references to the set of  Weather Maps that are published each day by the University of Maine.  One cannot say enough about how much useful information they contain that helps to gain a better perspective on climate change as well as weather.  The maps are found at this address:  https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom 
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As you can see there are twelve different sets of subject matter, and every one of them has quite a bit to say that is worth knowing.  I encourage every reader who has not done so before to spend some time just getting familiar with the scope and accessibility of everything they cover.  For maximum benefit you should learn to compare some of the fine details found on any one map with those in the same location found on another, one that may express an entirely different subject.  The relationships are absolutely unlimited, and so are the in-depth combinations found over multiple subjects.  Here is a simple example of things you can learn this way, starting with a global map of sea surface temperatures:
 

The “red zone,” because of its great warmth and extraordinary rate of evaporation, is where the bulk of our world’s precipitation comes from.  I’m pretty sure that the gross amount of evaporation grows exponentially with each added degree of warmth.  Thus the darker shaded areas where temperatures are rising above 30C depict genuine floods of vapor origination, all of which have to go somewhere, and the only way for them to go is up.  The surface air in those places is comparably warm, and since warm air likes to rise, with the aid of local wind currents, moving high up into the atmosphere (just like flying a kite) is no problem at all.  That activity would certainly suggest the presence of low air pressure, and as a matter of interest  this next map shows a close correspondence between the very warmest of surface water temperatures and the very lowest of air pressures that exist across all of the tropical oceans. In fact it’s hard to find anything other than some shade of blue over any of the tropical waters.

Now I have one more map to show, and here is where things get really curious.  Once all that water vapor rises high into the atmosphere, continuing in a non-stop sort of way, it can’t just sit there for long.  It has to get out of the way of the oncoming stream, and there are only two real options.  One is to get compressed and thereby condense right on the spot, form into clouds which can readily build up into massive thunderheads, and proceed to fall back into the ocean as rain.  The other is to get swept up quickly and without ever stopping by a high altitude wind current, thence being positioned as a rider in a stream that heads off in a whole new direction.  Those winds differ from the ones near the surface because they only move in a generally easterly way, along with either of a diagonal north or south bias toward the nearest pole.  When that happens, as you can discover by observing numerous places on this map, the skies above the oceanic region of origin might well remain perfectly clear, sometimes for days on end.  Condensation of the vapor may not even begin until the stream has traveled for perhaps hundreds or thousands of miles, often far over a continent, and in some cases only after riding on what is left of the airborne stream all the way to one of the polar regions. Those clear blue skies are real, and their key role in the workings of the entire climate system is one worth keeping in mind.

The map that best shows the journey toward the poles is the one labeled Precipitable Water, which is loaded with things that have extraordinary interest and need more detailed explanation, not to mention the broader implications involving air temperatures everywhere.  I will save that part for another day.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1645

Climate Letter #1644

Posted on March 27, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A new calculation of significant increase in natural methane emissions due to warmer temperatures has been reported (University of Eastern Finland).  “Lakes account for about 10% of the boreal landscape and are, globally, responsible for approximately 30% of biogenic methane emissions that have been found to increase under changing climate conditions.”  Scientists are now able to measure the rate of increase and can explain a full set of reasons for why the rate is growing.  “The authors estimated that the total current diffusive emission from Finnish lakes is 0.12±0.03 Tg CH4 yr-1 and will increase by 26-59% by the end of this century, depending on the warming scenario used. The study showed that while the warming of lake water and sediments plays a vital role, the increase in the length of the ice-free period is a key factor increasing methane emissions in the future.”

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—Extra Comment:  Historic data taken from ice cores indicate that atmospheric methane content regularly tends to rise or fall in a pattern much like that of CO2 when global temperatures are rising or falling, but by even greater percentages.  Historically the reasons are all natural, such as in the above example showing one small possible reason.  In today’s world the relationship is similar because both gases reflect large contributions from human activity, exacerbated by natural changes.  One more thing, as I’ve said before:  I believe that if methane and CO2 concentrations are both doubled, no matter from what levels, the methane would have about half as much greenhouse warming power as the CO2 before any kind of feedback effect is considered, such as those produced by water vapor or cloud changes, etc.  Thus, whenever methane is having a greater rate of increase in concentration than CO2 the net difference in heating power should be more narrow.  (I will expand on this idea at some later date.)
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Scientists have found evidence that deep water circulation in the North Atlantic has greater instability than currently assumed during times when temperatures are rising (AAAS).  The findings were taken from high-resolution sediments recovered off the southern tip of Greenland, showing 500,000 years of history.  “While current climate assessments recognize the severe impact that disruption of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) ventilation would have on global climate, disruption to this ocean phenomenon is generally considered to be a low probability tipping point. Now, results from this study suggest a need to reevaluate the long-held notion of warm-climate NADW stability and to consider rapid changes as a possible – if not intrinsic – feature of variability during warm climates. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and NADW ventilation play a crucial role in mediating the distribution and storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide and heat, as well as in mediating Atlantic-spanning climate patterns.”  Such changes could be large, abrupt and frequent under the new assumptions that are recommended.
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A new study describes pervasive shifts in abundance of marine life as species migrate in search of cooler waters (Cosmos magazine).  “Populations of plants and sea creatures in cooler waters have grown as previously unliveable habitats become more viable, while those near warmer waters have dropped off…..Meanwhile, some marine life suffers as it is not able to adapt fast enough to survive warming, and this is most noticeable in populations nearer the equator…..This is likely to continue, impacting further on local marine assemblages and the coastal industries that depend on them.”  Practically all large ecosystems are harmfully disturbed by this kind of activity.
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Why wealthy people consume so much energy (Vox).  Researchers have taken a close look at behavior patterns all over the world, and come up with a number of interesting conclusions.  “So, what did it find? In a nutshell, as people get wealthier, they spend more on transport (cars, boats, planes, vacations), which is one of the most energy intensive consumer categories. Because wealthier people turn to more energy intensive goods, the energy gap rises even faster than the income gap. This suggests important policy lessons, including some on how the US ought to respond to Covid-19.”
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Advanced research in solar cell technology shows promising results (NREL).  “Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, working in collaboration with their counterparts in the Republic of Korea, have validated the potential of using a combination of perovskite and silicon to create solar cells that are more than 30% efficient…..The scientists also noted accelerated testing showed the perovskite cell exhibited “excellent long-term stability” by retaining more than 80 percent of its initial efficiency after 1,000 hours of continuous illumination.”  Sooner or later something of this type should come to fruition in one lab or another, bringing great benefits to society.
Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1644

Climate Letter #1643

Posted on March 26, 2020 by Carl Campbell
A new reconstruction of Earth’s CO2 history over the last 300 million years (Science Direct).  The completed study has not yet been published, nor is there any media publicity available with an evaluation.  I happened upon this advance notice and felt it worth passing on right away.  The written material, brief as it may be, all makes sense.  Also, there is one graphic image, enormously interesting, that can be copied and expanded, which I have done below.  It may well be the most accurate display of its type available today, but that judgment will depend on it first going through a broader vetting process that is sure to come.  The main data line fits very well with numbers I have seen in a number of research studies of recent dating, many of which keep warning us about how close we are to slipping into a catastrophic outcome.   The Eocene study I just wrote about in letters #1634-5-6 is a good example, because it showed how a simple doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial 280 ppm, plus the heating effect of a doubling of methane values already more than accomplished, would be enough to activate ice sheet processes that lead directly to a hothouse climate state when given enough time to fully unfold.  Keep in mind that CO2 is not the only thing that causes the Earth to warm up.  So do methane and other well-mixed greenhouse gases, so do the very important water vapor and albedo feedbacks, so do often poorly recognized orographic changes in land elevation, or vegetatiion changes, or a few more odds and ends that can complicate everything for either better or worse.  CO2 will always stand out as a great igniter, and remains the best control we have over the re-emergence of all the other temperature forcings, but the total impact of those other forcings must not be underestimated.  The chart helps to show why.
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Efforts are being made to restore forests in a number of countries (Deutsche Welle).  This story contains a series of descriptions of ambitious undertakings in eleven different countries, with illustrations.
https://www.dw.com/en/nations-world-tackling-deforestation-with-reforestation-world-forest-day/g-52861802

An argument supporting the use of economic alternatives as an effective means of combating crisis (The Guardian, by Jeff Sparrow).  It’s happening today on a large scale, in response to the coronavirus, overturning well-entrenched ideologies.  The author makes the clearest possible argument in favor of applying the same logic to the climate crisis.  “The Covid-19 catastrophe demonstrates – if any demonstration is needed – that prevention is better than cure. It shows that scientific experts know, by and large, what they’re talking about, and that their modelling accurately predicts real world effects.  The implications for climate change could not be more obvious.  Scientists have told us, over and over again, that a warming planet will deliver increasingly horrific disasters….. it’s simply not credible to say nothing can be done about the rising temperatures.”  And so on.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/26/under-coronavirus-pro-market-ideologies-are-overturned-around-the-world-but-its-too-little-too-late

The latest weekly report from Bill McKibbin in The New Yorker:
https://link.newyorker.com/view/5bdcc3ef2ddf9c58d0e91581bt44g.67c/bea5298d

Carl

Posted in Daily Climate Letters | Comments Off on Climate Letter #1643