Carl's Climate Letters

For the past year these letters have been devoted to study and interpretation of the Climate Weather Maps. They have taught me many things about what I have come to believe is the way nature really works–even when there is a dearth of corroboration from the sciences. The findings for the most part have been reported with illustrations giving visual evidence. One prominent result of this effort explains the deep connection between holistically-viewed precipitable water (PW) and daily temperature anomalies, including the various and rather extraordinary features that cause it all to happen. Those features closely involve the overall behavior of jetstream winds, which in turn are closely governed by the way air pressure differentials in the upper troposphere happen to be set up over the course of any given day. The maps spell out all of these connections with a high degree of consistency, day after day, which I try to report as objectively as I can.

The everyday temperature anomalies that we end up with, covering about two-thirds of the planet, all outside of the tropical belt, tend to have substantial variations in magnitude, both hot and cold, for which corresponding PW values provide the dominant explanation. The anomalies also display practically unlimited variations in shape and location, based on the simple fact that total PW values at all locations keep changing from day to day. For any given day, at any given location, the result must be a historical average, and each new day must be either the same as or a departure from that average. By necessity the departures would be expected to strike a rough balance between up days and down days. Sadly, there is no map available that will quickly provide all of those historical averages in a handy, visual weather map format, but the data is out there, somewhere, ready to be assembled.

It’s always good to know how nature really works, in part to satisfy our normal human curiosity, and also because the knowledge might be practical in some way. It might even contain useful clues to the future, which in the case of climate science might be a subject of real importance. This leads to a basic opening up the question of whether or not all the particular things I have been talking about, if they truly represent the workings of nature, have future implications that have not yet been taken into account. We know that the daily average of all temperatures, taken in totality, must be rising in concert with the monthly and yearly trends that are being reported. In that case they could be the inevitable effect of whatever governs the long-term trends, which is more or less what science tells us. Or is it possible, as an alternative, that forces are lurking within the everyday processes we are seeing that could emerge in an additive way with possible long-term effects of their own, having unanticipated consequences?

As far as I can see, the weather maps do not provide direct visual evidence that could answer that question, but they do offer some clues that should be helpful. One prominent clue involves the makeup of the upper-altitude air pressure differentials, as mapped daily, which constantly keeps changing in each of the hemispheres. Each bit of change causes a chain reaction that ends up altering the overall progress of high-altitude PW concentrations and the greenhouse energy potential they are carrying. Last Friday’s letter made reference to evidence of possibly uncommon instability taking hold in the shaping of the air pressure setup pattern, causing jetstream organization to take an unexpected turn, generating unexpected results. These things are on record, but the depth of documentation is too thin to draw any really meaningful conclusions. I think it is an appropriate subject for an intense type of further study.

Carl

Air pressure configuration in the upper part of the troposphere, as shown on the Weather Maps at an altitude of 500hPa (about three miles), plays a vital role in the progression of surface temperature changes in the mid to upper latitudes. Configuration details in each hemisphere govern the organization of jetstream winds, which in turn maintain a powerful influence over the movement of precipitable water (PW) concentrations that exist at this same altitude. The way this movement proceeds then has a strong impact on surface air temperature due to the greenhouse energy powers of the PW. High-altitude air pressure configuration is generally represented by modest daily changes. It also passes through seasonal changes that tend to be larger, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Today we’ll be looking at some seasonal changes.

First, I’d like to show a map of the entire global configuration, featuring a fairly straight and wide band in the tropical center of the globe. This entire belt, shaded mostly in reddish tones, is characterized by a relatively high degree of stability throughout the entire year. Jetstream winds are almost entirely missing over the belt. Temperature changes, both daily and seasonal, are minor except for a few continental areas, and PW values remain consistently high, with the same few exceptions. The processes that generate so many significant changes outside of the tropical belt simply have no real grounds available for application.

The two maps that follow are current. The shape and structure of zonal patterns in the two hemispheres are quite similar, with each of them now undergoing the middle stages of a seasonal change. In the south the pattern has hardly changed from what it has been like throughout its summer season, and is sure to remain that way through the winter. The Arctic has recently been reconfigured into a more normal and compact type of zonal pattern after being hit hard this winter by an unusual polar vortex breakdown in the stratosphere above it. The damage, in this case, was mostly on the cold side as jetstream winds were scrambled around and out of place but otherwise not weakened.

Now let’s have a look at what happened in the Arctic a year ago after solar changes had initiated their usual warmer temperatures and seasonal ice melt. This view from May 20th shows extreme fragmentation of the blue zone, a grossly distorted green zone, and even some expansion in the range of the red zone. This may have been a year of record disintegration of these zones. It certainly did lead to many extreme record high temperatures in the far north. As of now the outlook for this year is less scary, but map-readers will surely surely want to keep an eye on this daily image during the weeks ahead to see how the zones develop when compared with this one:

Carl

Note: Unfortunately, the first two maps in this letter do not represent the original image inputs and must be disregarded. An unknown computer glitch is causing these images to be updated each day, something I now have no way to correct. Parts of the letter should still have value for broader application. Very sorry about this.

Today we will keep things simple and just look at some everyday evidence of the close relationship between total atmospheric precipitable water (PW) values and surface air temperatures on continental land, outside of the tropical belt. There is no better place to do this exercise than northern Asia, Siberia in particular. Siberia is a very long way away from the principal sources of PW, tropical ocean waters, which have some chance of being added in fairly significant parts to the local sources when they travel that far. The latter are not very robust at this time of year, which is still quite wintry, with temperatures all below freezing and snow on the ground everywhere. It seems that any little extra bit of PW in the sky will have lots of leverage when it comes to greenhouse energy effects.

You should keep in mind a basic fact about all of the different kinds of airborne matter that generate greenhouse effects: when concentrations are at their lowest the effect on temperature is strongest, per molecule, from a purely molecular standpoint.  When concentrations grow the effect per molecule diminishes, logarithmically.  That is, each double produces only half the effect on temperatures as the one preceding.  Also keep in mind, with respect to greenhouse gases, that most of them are not very powerful, per molecule, to begin with.  This is because of the relatively minor positions held all to themselves on the solar radiation spectrum.  CO2 has a relatively strong position.  It can add about a whole degree (all by itself with no feedbacks) to global temperatures by doubling, and its level is growing too fast for comfort.  Methane, growing at about the same rate but with a less strong position on the spectrum, adds a little less than half a degree with every double. Fortunately, in one sense, both of these gases are growing at rates well under 1% per year, and can be controlled by human action if there is a will to do so.  

PW, composed of varying amounts of H2O in several states, is a real oddity. It is mostly in a gaseous state, water vapor, and behaves much like a gas. It differs from the gases mainly because of its tremendous variation in concentrations, which are everywhere in a constant state of change, which can at times be dramatic in terms of both doubling and halving, and multiples thereof. And oh, it has unparalleled strength on the spectrum—each double is worth about 10C in surface temperature, always localized and never permanent, fortunately. Differences in the composition of PW materials, from gas to icy things, does not seem to matter very much. I find this all quite interesting, and wonder why similar observations are not well-publicized in educational circles.

Now for some sampling of PW at work today in Siberia, as promised. The anomaly map is intriguing because of the big blue anchor shape that is seen. We will want to see if the PW map will have any imagery in that same position with a similar unique shape. Note that the anchor handle contains a cold spot that has an anomaly reading all the way down to -21C:

The anchor image on the PW map does not stand out as clearly as the other, but certainly has the right shape. If you magnify the image you will be better able to pick out the low readings, mostly at the level of 2-3kg. The coldest spot of all is associated with a PW reading of less than 1kg, indicating a probable actual temperature of -38C. That temperature places the true PW value at about 750 grams. A short distance to the south, where a warm anomaly shows up, the shading indicates an actual temperature of about -8C, for a 30-degree difference. I can see a PW value of 6-7kg in that area., representing about three doubles when compared with the coldest place.

Here is a map of actual temperatures to use for reference. You are invited to look for similar connections in other parts of the Arctic region, such as the areas around Scandinavia, or the Kamchatka Peninsula, and many more.

Carl

In yesterday’s letter I left out part of the story, which would have made it even more interesting.  Why are we seeing this strong surface wind, carrying such a huge amount of precipitable water (PW), following the particular route it has taken?  After traversing over a long stretch of the Caribbean Sea from east to west, why has it suddenly made a sharp turn to the north, into the center of the US?  The answer is not hard to find, by opening the map of Sea Level Air Pressure:

There are are a couple of basic rules to keep in mind here.  One is that surface winds regularly tend to follow courses set by the isobars that surround all of the many existing pressure centers, both high and low. The other is that in the Northern Hemisphere the wind direction around a high pressure center will always be clockwise, while movement around a low one is always counter-clockwise.  In the SH everything is reversed, while in the upper level wind system, where jetstreams are operative and follow courses established by a separate set of isobars, the entire setup has a number of novelties. The principal surface wind we will observe today is similar to the one yesterday, except that now its strength is being delivered even deeper into Canada. You can also see how it must shift again as it progresses over a much greater distance and curves back to the east and out over the Atlantic: 

With reference to the pressure map, we have several examples here of what happens when winds from one kind of pressure center press up against those of the other kind.  They will be moving in the same direction, and I can see possibilities for interaction. One thing for sure is that the heavy PW concentrations borne by this stream have been extended more deeply into Canada today, still without any sign of help from high-altitude inputs. 

My general theory concerning the substantial nature of the greenhouse powers of PW is based on readings of its total value, as derived from all levels of the (non-tropical) atmosphere. These are the readings that are obtained by radiosonde instruments and used in constructing the Weather Maps and also the real-time animation series. There is no separation made by altitude, or layers, or different components or anything of the kind, just a compilation into one final number expressed in terms of the total weight of H2O molecules in a vertical column. What I have found is that this one number is very useful when applied to calculations aimed at determining the causes of the warm and cold air temperature anomalies that appear every day all over the surface of the planet. This is especially true when the anomalies are large. All of the other causes to be considered seem to fade into the background, leaving only this one particular item of causation and the consistent quality of results that it yields.

The attention I keep focusing on the unique concentrations of PW content in the upper level of the troposphere has a separate purpose. This material can do things that concentrations of the same kind of material in the lower level would find virtually impossible, due to opportunities for higher concentrations, broader range of movement and a more versatile range of behavior within that exclusive environment. The event we have been looking at these last two days, while impressive, has nothing comparable in the way of commonly enlarged potential that I can see.

Carl

There is something happening in North American weather today that is a bit different from the norm, and for me a real wake-up call. An ordinary small scale phenomenon that I pay little attention to has blossomed into something big. We’ll start with the anomaly map, showing a truly massive warm one that extends from the US southwest across Canada and then most of Greenland as well. Another anomaly that is very warm but not as large stretches northward from Alaska. There are many spots of warming near 20C included, each requiring an extraordinary amount of greenhouse warming that according to my theory can only be provided by high concentrations of precipitable water (PW):

As expected, both of the major anomaly areas involve substantial infusions of PW being carried over land from tropical sources of waters that have high rates of evaporation. This map has a good view of both infusions, plus a third prominent infusion, more to the north but less strong, approaching from the Atlantic off the east side of Greenland:

Right off the bat, the intrusion by a stream moving north from the Gulf of Mexico looks peculiar, because this stream, which is full of moisture, appears as if it might be propelled by winds coming from the east. That is not how jetstream winds do things, so let’s run a check on the jetstream map:

We can see regular jetstream winds moving eastward carrying PW across Alaska and into the polar Arctic. Another jet is doing the same thing east of Greenland. Still others are approaching the west coast of the US carrying minor amounts of PW. By contrast, the Gulf area only shows us a pathway that is heading from west to east, the usual way, and not even bearing much of a wind. That leaves us in a quandary, but there is one possibility to look for on another map:

Bingo! What we are seeing is a long and broad sweep of strong surface winds, at first moving from east to west, that have crossed the Caribbean Sea, where they could have picked up plenty of moisture, carried it across the relatively cool Gulf, then headed north into the heart of the US and kept on going as far as the Canadian border. Scattered quantities of PW continued on from there, presumably carried by lighter winds, finally contributing energy to the warming pattern that continues farther north, adding to a mix derived from several other sources, none of which are especially large individually.

I suspect that this very moist band of air moving across the US was never lifted to any level of upper altitude where wind effects change. Moreover, as we’ll see on the next map, it was never a producer of heavy clouds or precipitation. The minor snowfalls that appear in Canada most likely came from other sources. In the US, we see nothing but clouds and clear skies. In short, here is a case where massive quantities of PW entered the atmosphere and were transported overhead for a very long distance, just like those carried by jetstream winds, but without doing even a little bit of precipitating. On the other hand, this mass of PW has produced some exceptionally heavy warming at the surface, in amounts that look indifferent to the amount of clouding, for which PW’s own peculiar powers of greenhouse energy generation must be given the credit deserved. (Please let me know if there is an alternative explanation!)

There is one more interesting thing to take note of today, as pictured in the above jetstream map. That’s the pathway taken by the strong jet that emerges from the Caribbean and moves up the center of the Atlantic, until it suddenly makes a bend and heads in reverse for awhile, greatly weakened. The path again reverses and once more heads to the east and north later on. These strange movements can be attributed to an unusual pattern of air pressure configuration in the interior part of the red zone, which is quite visible on the next map. Jetstream winds are simply not allowed to depart from the pathways that nature creates for them. This is the same pathway that we previously saw crossing southern Texas and the Gulf. It had soon after moved closer to the green fringe pathway, whereupon the winds were at their intermittently strongest stretch of movement, before making the series of sharp bends.

Carl

I am greatly interested in the relationship between the 500 hPa air pressure configuration, as we see it on one of the Weather Maps, and surface air temperatures on another map. These images are spatially separated by a minimum of about 5000 meters, or roughly three miles of atmosphere depth.  Past efforts have led me to believe that each of these phenomena has an effect on the formation of the other, which by definition would compose the workings of a positive feedback loop.  I want to revisit that idea. There is an alternative possibility, that one of them is deeply involved in causing the other to be formed as it is, but without the reverse. That idea has seemed much less likely.  The starting point, the one thing that seems abundantly evident, is the constant and extraordinarily close relationship in locations and other features revealed by the images, in one detail after another.  At the very least, one cannot fail to imagine that a cause and effect relationship must be in play as the likely source of this closeness. Today we will look at just one example of what the evidence amounts to, as portrayed on two such maps:

The particular features of the one large “block” of air pressure zone formation that we see here, representing only about half of today’s total for the polar region, are a bit unusual, in that the block in its entirety lies outside of the pole itself. The borders are very regular and well-rounded for an off-center block of this size, and the flattened-out shape is also uncommon for a situation like this. Will temperatures on the map below be able to match any expectation requiring them to line up in comparable zones, i.e., where all locations beneath the blue zone must record actual degrees that are consistently cold, followed outward by consistent warming beneath the other zones in all directions—regardless of what normal temperatures for the day should be like? Here’s the map:

Ignore the Himalayan Range for now and focus on the zone with mostly dark blue tones, plus magenta. Indeed, every bit of that area, without exception, has actual average temperatures below zero for the day. For some spots that’s normal, maybe even warm, but for others a strong cold anomaly is in place as a consequence. Another consequence—or is it a cause?—of all the cold on the surface is the simple fact that the blue zone for air pressure fits so well on top of it. How could a fit like this be nothing more than a pure coincidence? The same type of fit, though not quite so perfect on the borders, also applies to the greenish-colored zones on each of the maps, and then on to the reddish zones as well.

The Himalaya Range, in contrast, sticks out like a sore thumb on one map, yet make not even a blip on the other. How can that be? I think because so much of its surface is above the three-mile division between atmospheric layers. These surfaces can only record ambient temperatures as they exist in the upper troposphere, which have minimal exposure to greenhouse energy effects, quite unlike places nearby that add the effect of low-level evaporation. Meanwhile the 500 hPa level for air pressure cannot be physically lowered because of lower-than-normal air temperatures down below. There is just no air at all down below, nothing but intrusions of high-level rock that never move.

The next two maps are being added with little discussion, in order, first, to show the regular positioning of current jetstream winds that depend on the shape of air-pressure zone configuration, and also to show how precipitable water readings once again tend to be held down (by jetstream activity) when they exist within the confines of an established air-pressure blue zone, no matter where that zone may be situated.

(The long low band of speedy jetstream wind is traveling on the outermost major pathway, the one associated with pressure deviation in the inner part of the red zone. The two major inner pathways lie close enough together to have merged in many places.)

Carl

My theory of causation of everyday global temperature changes places sharp focus on the power and behavior of precipitable water (PW) in the atmosphere, especially the portion of it that escapes into the upper part of the troposphere that is dominated by jetstream winds. The PW that exists within that territory, originally in the form of smoothly flowing streams, quickly begins to fragmentize. The fragments that result are greatly varied with respect to their degree of concentration of PW molecules. In addition, all fragments remain constantly on the move over their relatively brief lifetime, steadily losing concentrations as their movement progresses. The Weather Maps make it easy for us to see the greenhouse temperature effects these fragments have on surfaces below their courses of movement, including the relative cooling effects that occur when high-altitude concentrations are noticeably below average for the day.

My research goes on to present a theory about how the varying courses of movement of these fragments are determined, with a strong focus placed on the role of jetstream winds. These winds are sure to be encountered by all PW streams soon after they have entered this strange new environment. Jetstream winds exhibit their own unique pattern of positioning as well as and strength of velocities, all of which is subject to both wide variation and a certain degree of constant change. PW streams, by nature the weaker of the two, react accordingly. The interaction between the two types of streams follows certain principles, but the details tend to be both variable and unpredictable. The Weather Maps do a good job of showing us enough of those details to at least give us a considerable amount of information about what determines the courses of streams or fragments of PW movement on any given day. This information is very useful in the making of predictions concerning the outlook for precipitation and temperature change. (The latter of these can be applied in more than one way.)

One more thing the Weather Maps do well is to connect the positioning and velocities of jetstream winds to yet another key component of this overall pattern of activity, by mapping out the unique air pressure relationships that exist in the upper troposphere. Jetstream wind pathways are all governed by the configuration of these relationships, which are established because of regular differentials in natural gradients. This air pressure component also keeps changing its configuration, which ultimately becomes the source of the deep variation in the activity of jetstream winds and thus of the PW streams that are under their influence. We therefore should want to know as much as we can about whatever there may be that serves as a determinant of the observed changes in air pressure configuration. There are some clues revealed by the maps that assist in making such an investigation.

Yesterday I showed four maps from Antarctica depicting how a specific design of air pressure configuration resulted in certain significant temperature anomalies at the surface. Today I want to display two maps from the same region, one showing upper level air pressure and the other the actual air temperatures on the surface. We will look for any kind of basic connection between the two:

A general similarity between the shape, size and location of the blue zone in one map, and those same features contained within the zero-temperature outline in the other, is hard to miss.  With close examination, there is even more similarity between the blue zone and the total area contained by about +3 or 4C in temperature.  Likewise, these same three features applied to the outer fringe of the green zone conform fairly well with the area contained by temperatures somewhere between+5 and 10C.  These relationships are not perfect, and there is no good reason to think they should be, given so much spatial separation, but they are certainly close enough to strongly suggest something other than pure coincidence.  I have worked before on the idea of how a feedback loop may be involved in this entire situation, and think this will be a good time to give it renewed consideration—in days to come.

Carl

Antarctica usually has a nicely compacted air pressure configuration in its upper troposphere, which keeps jetstream wind velocities strong and a band of streams in place that are tightly wound around the central area shaded in blue. Streams of high-level precipitable water (PW) that are always circling about in areas outside of this band have a hard time breaking through the jets, although some always manage to slip through. The overall arrangement tends to keep the surface beneath the blue zone extremely cold, for lack of greenhouse energy effects, since the surface itself has no liquid water on hand to contribute evaporation. Today, for some reason the usual air pressure pattern has broken down in a couple of places, which should give us an opportunity to see if anything noteworthy happens as a consequence:

Jetstream winds must stay on specific pathways that are marked out for them, and those pathways are constantly being set up in places where isobars keep track of the separation of different pressure levels. One major pathway tracks the outer edge of the blue zone and another the outer fringe of the surrounding narrow green zone, as mapped out for us with great clarity. When these pathways are close together the winds they bear tend to merge and accelerate; otherwise the paths will be split up and their winds will show more weakness. Whenever the isobars get bent completely out of shape, like they are today, the winds must find the way to adjust:

The funny inward twist in the lower left is especially interesting. All jet winds are ordinarily set up to move from west to east. Here the combined stream that is moving along so smoothly at the bottom must suddenly make a sharp bend and reverse direction. Before long there has occurred another reversal, allowing a more regular wind pattern to eventually reform on the other side of the twist. All of these circling jetstream winds carry a certain amount of PW as passengers, which has been picked up along their outer edges. The sharp bends creating this peculiar movement will allow some of that PW to escape into the polar zone interior, like this:

Adding all that PW content to the air above an area that is normally much more exclusive is destined to have an immediate effect on surface air temperatures, simply because there are more photons returning to the surface via the ordinary workings of the greenhouse process. We can see the result that came about in this situation:

The bright red spot in the low part of the anomaly image represents a temperature increase of at least 21C (38F). That’s a true, sensible heat gain, raising temperatures from around -40C to -20. It could not occur without an input of real energy, and there are not many sources available that can supply that much energy, and so quickly. PW does have the strength to qualify, at 10C per double, when quantities are driven sharply higher. The amount of temperature increase we are seeing here, based on the logarithmic principle that applies to all greenhouse effects, means that the normal, or average, PW content of the local atmosphere must have experienced at least a fourfold increase. I would guess that in this case the actual numbers went from about 500 grams, its average for the day, to a full two kilograms. It’s possible! The map shadings give us a few good clues, but having real, hard numbers on hand would be much more convincing. Are they filed away somewhere?

Carl

Today, instead of just talking about the Weather Maps and how great they are I had better produce some evidence. This is a good day to show how close the interconnections are between different maps. No fewer than eight different maps will be involved, each of them related to all of the others either directly or indirectly. I am going to begin with one that is unusual, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, because it literally helps to explain why current air temperatures over Greenland have reached such an extreme high level for this time of year:

The anomaly in much of the Caribbean is about 1C, while parts of the Gulf, the Florida coastline and Eastern seaboard have spots running several degrees warmer than that (use magnification), for reasons I am unable to illustrate.  These anomalies all help to bring water temperatures up to the levels required for providing enough energy to lift new streams of evaporation upward as much as three miles, where the upper level of the troposphere and its changes in wind system are established.  The extent of needed sea surface temperatures (at least 24-25C) are plainly visible on this next map:  

Waters in the Pacific directly to the west also match these temperatures and can contribute more high-level vapor in the same way. Having skies free of low-level clouds is another aid to efficient vapor uplift, and we can see a widespread abundance of totally clear skies over these warm waters on the next map. All such skies must be loaded with vapors from constant evaporation, and vapors added must keep moving, with no hesitation, in order to stay out of the way of those that follow:

What happens to these vapor streams when they reach the upper level of the troposphere and its own special type of winds? I see them getting swept up by any fast-moving jetstream winds that happen to be passing by, normally from the west or southwest at this latitude. Today we see one in just the right place, ready to do the job. The vapor streams never need to stop moving, and are likely to stay with the jet as long as it keeps blowing toward the east and north. This stream will soon begin to do some shifting, merging and splitting that will affect the vapors it carries in a variety of ways. The map just above shows how vapor condensation and drenching precipitation begin naturally, and continue thereafter, as soon as the air and water streams come together.

Jetstreams do not have these positions or make these moves by accident They are governed by forces that are generated by the shaping of air pressure patterns unique to the upper part of the troposphere. You can see a truly vivid demonstration of the way wind pathways exactly match the lines of air pressure change in the Greenland area by studying those lines on this next map:

Now it’s time to actually display what began as water vapor streams that were picked up by the jetstreams, then quickly transformed into precipitable water (PW) streams in order to acknowledge the act of condensation startup. Matching the movement of PW streams and jetstreams does have complexities, but in this example the basic correspondence is displayed with ultra clarity as the point where they make their move together in the direction of Greenland, which was our original objective:

Notice how the relatively high PW values stretch all the way across the north Atlantic from one continent to the other. That will prompt us to take a quick look at the Air Temperature Anomaly map in search of an outcome, which is even warmer than expected over the surface of a region that is entirely oceanic:

The really special interest derived from this image is the outcome for Greenland itself, which gained an extremely warm anomaly, compared with the adjacent extreme cold anomalies covering a large part of northern Canada. The latter happens to be much lower in elevation and also more to the south, which means normally much warmer.  The difference in actual temperatures, which helps to explain why there is so much contrast in the anomalies, is revealed in this map—finally, the last of eight!:

Why is there so much difference? Because Greenland happened to be in the way of that massive PW movement while northern Canada stayed just off to the side of it. Actual amounts of PW involved is exceedingly small in both places, but can be observed and interpreted. Greenland was able to raise its daily average input, or “daily dose,” from something under 1kg to something well over but still under 2, which is enough for a full double. Any double on any one day is worth an added 10C in temperature, just as we see recorded in the anomaly. In Arctic Canada the numbers are the same, but in reverse directions. Use magnification and look closely to see the current PW shadings and to get all of the temperature numbers just right. I hope you are in agreement with me about the extraordinary value of these maps.

Carl

In yesterday’s letter I took issue with a certain conclusion drawn from a major experimental project conducted at CERN. The experimental results were not an issue. They are rather impressive, a valuable contribution to our knowledge of cloud formation. I just didn’t like the idea expressed in the commentaries, by high-ranking scientists, that extensive creation of new clouds in high-latitude regions, such as the Arctic, will produce significant greenhouse energy effects that were not there before the clouds formed. Basically, the scientists are saying that the water vapor being consumed in the process did not itself offer a greenhouse effect of any size which would thereby be lost. In contrast, as I have said repeatedly in these letters, I have never been able to detect any appreciable difference in the surface warming effect of a specific amount of total precipitable water (PW) where the degree of warming was affected by the relative mixture of PW components. Any real difference would have to be very small. Our conclusions cannot both be right. Should I surrender, with an apology, or keep on arguing?

After giving this more thought, and knowing I have a good source of evidence, I have decided to press on. The evidence should work to my advantage if the scientists have not set aside the time to make use of it themselves, as I have been doing now for about five years. Which means, I have access to the U of Maine.s Climate Weather Maps on my home computer, and the time to study them daily. As I’ve said here many times, these maps contain a goldmine of information, presented visually by ingenious design methods. When you look at them in the right way it is like seeing the sky for the first time through a telescope. This is actually an apt analogy, because once again, as in the time of Galileo, things that are happening up in the sky are of critical importance, and must be put in proper focus. These things are not visible to the naked eye, and are not easy to represent graphically, but the Weather Maps have found a way. They are still relatively new, and seldom reviewed for practical purposes, which I am gladly trying to correct. I think anyone who doesn’t make use of them is bound to miss out on information of an unusual nature that is very good to know about. (The animated PW time series delivered daily from the U of Wisconsin provides a perfect complement.)

Last April I converted the Climate Letter from a newsletter about climate change to a kind of journal covering ongoing research activity based on information provided every day by the weather maps, backed up by illustrations. The project continues as such to this day, far from complete, with the usual fits and starts, twists and turns. Several theories have been taking shape which I believe are unknown to science, one of which is an attempt to correctly define the greenhouse energy powers of the stuff we call precipitable water, when perceived holistically. The current (meaning 24-hour average) association of cloud cover and varying PW values is always ready to put together by studying just two maps. At the same time, PW values can be put together with maps of temperature anomalies, consistently indicating both the presence and an approximate measure of a specific greenhouse effect. (“Normal” PW values from a suitable baseline must still be estimated, an annoying but not too difficult task.) Based on everyday experience, it is not often apparent that differences in cloud cover, considered in isolation, make any difference in the size of an anomaly. When differences do show up they are usually confined to latitudes where albedo effects on cloud tops are most likely to occur.

One more point.  The Weather Maps keep telling me that—outside of the tropical belt—concentrations of PW in the lower part of the troposphere, up to about three miles, are different in many ways from concentrations in the remaining upper part.  They each contribute to the total, in proportions that keep changing, sometimes in differences that end up being rather extreme, with upper level proportions normally being the more irregular.  The greenhouse effect that I observe from the maps, after considering any other factors that could be causing temperatures to change, always reflects the combined total from all of the PW in the two layers, just as detected and reported by the instruments in use. The irregularity of fragmented concentrations of PW in the upper level can then be viewed as largely responsible for major shifts in temperatures at the surface, a consequence of actual differences in their corresponding greenhouse effects.  I don’t think conventional scientists have become fully aware of these relationships, probably for lack of making best use of the wonderful telescope that is now available in the Weather Maps.

Carl